LEBANESE ECONOMY ON TRACK FOR A REBOUND IN 2017

Transcription

1 N 52 January 2017 Page 3 Inflation returns to the Lebanese economy Page 4 Insurance premiums set to accelerate in 2017 Page 5 Banking activity cooled in October, still ahead in 2016 Page 6 Exports poised to rebound in 2017 despite stronger US Dollar Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy LEBANESE ECONOMY ON TRACK FOR A REBOUND IN 2017 Real estate and construction activity made big gains in October and November Beirut s hotel occupancy rates up 8% yoy to 65% in November Auto market cooled in November, but dealers are stocking up at a fast pace Lebanon s economy appeared on track for a meaningful rebound in activity after a national accord Cabinet secured Parliament s approval in late Beirut stocks closed the year up 3.7% excluding returns from cash dividends, their fastest pace since The real economy showed green shoots of a recovery in the final months of 2016, despite widespread uncertainty over the election of a President and the subsequent formation of a new Cabinet at the time. Cement deliveries, a coincident indicator for the construction industry, hit a two-year high of 548,700 tons in October 2016, as developers appeared to be resuming some of their stalled projects. A total of 4.4 million tons of cement were delivered in the first 10 months of the year, 8% more than in the same period of. Construction permits also point to sustained gains in investment, particularly in Tripoli where the cessation of hostilities is finally translating into greater investment demand. The area of construction permits issued by Lebanon s two orders of engineers rose by 20.6% yoy to 1.2m square meters in November 2016, helping lift the cumulative in the first 11 months of the year by 0.5% yoy to 11.3m square meters. Permits for construction in Tripoli doubled to 60,667 square meters in December, while execution orders, which indicate an imminent start of construction works, surged by 20.8% yoy to 74,005 square meters across the whole North Lebanon, data by the Order of Engineers and Architects in Tripoli via Economena Analytics showed. Real estate sales transactions increased by 5.4% yoy to $7.5bn in the first 11 months of The revival in construction activity is supported by a more active realty market in Real estate sales transactions increased by 5.4% yoy to $7.5bn in the first 11 months of 2016, including a jump of 18.2% yoy to $760.1m in November alone. Other industries also reported a pick-up in activity in the aftermath of the political breakthrough. Occupancy rates at Beirut s 4- and 5-star hotels rose by 8% yoy to 65% in November, helping raise the 12-month average to a four-year high of 58%. Price returns of Beirut-listed stocks Construction execution orders (North, msqm) 32.9% % 3.7% % -0.6% -1.6% -0.1% -20.3% ext Source: BSE, Economena, SGBL Research Source: OEAT, Economena, SGBL Research

2 The Purchasing Managers Index increased by 7.1% to 46.9 points in November General business activity in Lebanon was significantly better in November than in October. The seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers Index, which is based on a survey of business unit managers by Markit, increased by 7.1% to 46.9 points during the month, indicating a slower contraction in business activity. Stronger activity is already adding momentum to consumer prices which increased by 1.8% yoy through November 2016, confirming the country s return to inflation after almost two years of deflationary pressure from low oil prices and sluggish economic growth. More robust domestic economic activity and a projected increase in global oil prices by another 21% in 2017, according to the IMF, may help sustain the upward trend in prices in coming months. As a result, inflation is likely to reach 2.5% in 2017, and may accelerate even further to 3.5% by 2018, according to Standard Chartered. Lebanese exports are also poised to rebound in 2017 as Lebanon s relationship with Gulf countries improves and regional trade flows pick up on higher oil prices. Exports of goods inched up by 0.6% yoy to $2.7bn in the first 11 months of 2016, including an increase of 11.5% yoy to $247.3m in November alone, Customs data showed. In particular, exports to Syria grew considerably in recent months, reaching $23.1m in November, their highest level in over two years. Despite being struck by war, Syria is the fourth largest export destination for Lebanese products, taking in goods worth $169.3m in the first 11 months of Goods and services exports are projected to grow by 6.5% to $19.6bn in 2017, $1.2bn more than in 2016, according to Business Monitor International, a London-based market research company. New car sales fell by 19.3% yoy to 2,665 vehicles in November, but car dealers are still replenishing their stocks at a fast pace. AUTO MARKET AND BANKING ACTIVITY ARE COOLER Meanwhile, positive political developments have yet to trickle into the auto market which slipped for the fifth month in a row in November. New car sales fell by 5.4% yoy to 35,983 vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016, including a drop of 19.3% yoy to 2,665 vehicles in November. Car dealers, however, appear to be replenishing their stocks at a fast pace, with imports reaching 9,308 vehicles in November, their highest level for the month since Banking activity too took a breather in October amid seismic political changes and unorthodox monetary policy developments. Bank lending to the resident private sector grew by just $260m in October 2016, including a record growth of $309.5m in local currency loans. Despite cooler activity during the month, private sector loan production of $2.5bn in the first 10 months of 2016 is still higher than in the same period in, reflecting improved economic conditions. Kafalat-guaranteed loans, which target small and medium enterprises, also posted marginal growth during the year after four consecutive years of decline. The value of new guaranteed loans increased by 0.5% yoy to $85.4m in the first 11 months of 2016, and the number of new approved guarantees grew by 6.2% yoy to 655 over the same period. Private sector deposits rose by 5.6% yoy to $157.7bn through October, equivalent to an increase of $6.1bn in the first 10 months of the year. Lebanon will be able to sustain its deposit inflows given the wide differential between local and US rates, but the latter may add upward pressure on local interest rates in coming years. To that end, BdL is likely able to maintain stable interest rates in 2017, but may raise rates by 2% in 2018, stated Standard Chartered. The weighted average interest rate on dollar deposits surged to 3.42% in October, reflecting the growing cost of attracting foreign currency deposits. The Association of Banks in Lebanon has already raised the Beirut Reference Rate on the US Dollar to 6.54% in January 2017, 31 basis points more than in the same month of The weighted average interest rate on dollar deposits in Lebanon has also surged to 3.42% in October, reflecting the growing cost of attracting foreign currency deposits by Lebanese banks. Beirut hotel occupancy (12m moving average) 60% 58.1% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Source: EY, Economena, SGBL Research Weighted average interest on dollar deposits 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Oct-16 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research

3 CONSUMER INFLATION RETURNS TO THE LEBANESE ECONOMY Higher oil prices adding momentum to inflation in Lebanon Clothing and footwear prices accelerating, food inflation still negative Inflation may rebound to 2.5% in 2017, as per Standard Chartered Consumer prices in Lebanon increased by 1.8% yoy through November 2016, confirming the country s return to inflation after almost two years of deflationary pressure from low oil prices and sluggish economic growth. Oil prices staged a comeback in late 2016 following a landmark deal between OPEC and non-opec countries to cut production starting early Brent crude prices closed the year at $54 per barrel, up from $36.6 bbl a year before, nudging Lebanon s transportation prices up throughout the year. Retail prices of gasoline have surged to LBP22,700 per 20 liters at the end of 2016 from their decade low of LBP18,600 in mid-march. Retail prices of diesel, widely used for private generators and heating, rose at an even faster pace of 54% from their trough in February. Clothing and footwear led the rebound in pricing, climbing by 8% yoy through November, while healthcare costs posted the fastest decline of 1.1% yoy over the same period. Consumer prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, the largest spending category for a typical average household in Lebanon, are still down 0.6% yoy through November reflecting mainly a slump in fruit prices. Clothing and footwear led the rebound in prices, climbing by 8% yoy through November. Inflation in the education sector has also accelerated as prices picked up by 3.5% yoy in the 12 months through November, up from just 1.5% yoy the year before. Meanwhile, rental prices are defying headwinds from a cooling real estate market, supported by a rental law passed in 2014 that provides for steep increases in old rent contracts over the next few years, eventually replacing old contracts with new ones. Old rents rose by 15.3% yoy through November, while rental prices in contracts signed after 1992 inched up by a healthy 3.1% yoy over the same period. At the regional level, prices in Beirut and Mount Lebanon showed a meaningful rebound in the last few months of 2016, but inflation in both districts remains relatively tame at just over 1% yoy as of November. Consumer prices in the Bekaa and North Lebanon, however, jumped by 4.3% yoy and by 2.9% yoy respectively over the same period. The latter two districts are hosts to the largest proportion of Syrian refugees in the country. More robust domestic economic activity and a projected increase in global oil prices by another 21% in 2017, according to the IMF, may help sustain the upward trend in prices in coming months. As a result, inflation is likely to reach 2.5% in 2017, and may accelerate even further to 3.5% by 2018, stated Standard Chartered. Global oil prices are projected to rise by 21% in 2017, according to the IMF. Consumer price index (% yoy) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Total Transportation 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -20% Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Crude oil prices (% change, as of Dec-16) 29.2% 20.8% 4.9% 7.5% % -0.9% -1.1% -7.6% -15.9% -47.2% f 2018f 2020f Source: IMF, Economena, SGBL Research

4 INSURANCE INSURANCE PREMIUMS SET TO ACCELERATE IN 2017 Ageing population and inflation to drive premium growth in 2017, as per BMI Insurance premiums up 4% yoy to $1bn through September 2016 Net profits in the insurance sector rose by 15.2% to a record $162.4m in Lebanon s insurance sector held up relatively well in 2016 but is slated to regain even more momentum starting 2017 as non-life insurance segments recover in line with economic activity. Non-life written premiums are set to accelerate by 6.5% to $1.2bn in 2017, and may grow at an even faster rate through 2020, according to Business Monitor International (BMI), a London-based market research company. Lebanon s ageing population is a key factor that should underpin steady growth in demand for health insurance, with insurers likely to enjoy both higher volumes and stable, or increasing, prices, stated BMI. Insurance companies produced $364.7m in medical premiums in the first nine months of 2016, just 3% more than the same period in, data by the Association of Insurance Companies in Lebanon (ACAL) via Economena showed. Insurance companies produced $364.7m in medical premiums in the first nine months of 2016, just 3% more than the same period in. Growth in health insurance premiums had slowed to 2.3% in, its slowest pace in nearly a decade, but the segment s profits still leapt by 85% yoy to $18.6m during the year. Inflation in healthcare costs may add impetus to premiums in coming years, as deflationary pressures from government regulations and the economic slowdown begin to fade. While prices of pharmaceutical products declined steadily in and 2016 after the government introduced new pricing structures for medicine, inflation in hospital services and medical equipment remained buoyant. Motor premiums, which contributed to 22.4% of total insurance premiums, increased by 6% yoy to $267.4m in the first nine months of 2016, data by ACAL showed. Profits in this line of business are derived almost entirely from non-compulsory insurance policies, while the compulsory motor segment showed a loss for the third year in a row in. A slump in demand for new vehicles is also hurting premium growth in the motor segment. New car sales fell by 5.4% yoy to 35,983 vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016, adding to pressure on the development of the segment from greater price competition. Unlike non-life premiums, which have struggled to maintain positive growth amid a prolonged economic slowdown, life insurance posted encouraging results. Premiums grew by 7% yoy to $358.2m in the first nine months of 2016, broadly in line with the segment s performance in. Life premiums grew by 7% yoy to $358.2m in the first nine months of Growth in life premiums in coming years will likely be a result of life insurers developing and distributing additional products to existing users, but the prospects for the protection and savings offerings are restrained by the fact that households who understand and can afford life insurance are already using it, according to BMI. Written premiums (Jan-Sep, %yoy) Gross written premiums () Life insurance Motor insurance Total premiums 7% 6% 4% Medical insurance 3% 2 Public liability Workmen insurance -1% 2% Cargo insurance -14% Engineering -17% -20% -10% 0% 10% Source: ACAL, Economena, SGBL Research Source: ICC, Economena, SGBL Research

5 BANKING BANKING ACTIVITY COOLED IN OCTOBER, STILL AHEAD IN 2016 Deposits increased by $6.1bn through October 2016, loans rose by $2.5bn BdL-issued CDs in US Dollar up by around $800m in October to $18.6bn Lebanese rates to remain stable in 2017, may rise in 2018, as per Standard Chartered Banking activity took a breather in October amid seismic political changes and unorthodox monetary policy developments. Rival political parties elected a President at the end of October in a dramatic turn of events after nearly 2.5 years of failed attempts, a breakthrough that has since also led to the formation of a national accord Cabinet. As the new Cabinet was being formed, Banque du Liban was announcing the end of its financial mechanism which saw banks swap over $11bn of their foreign currency for BdL Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and Eurobonds in a bid to prop up the Central Bank s foreign currency reserves. The value of dollar-denominated CDs issued by BdL increased by $9.5bn in the first 10 months of 2016 to $18.6bn, including an estimated $800m in October alone. Bank lending to the resident private sector grew by just $260m in October 2016, including a record growth of $309.5m in local currency loans. Despite cooler activity during the month, private sector loan production of $2.5bn in the first 10 months of 2016 is still higher than in the same period in, reflecting improved economic conditions. Dollar-denominated CDs issued by BdL increased by $9.5bn in the first 10 months of The rise in local currency lending is prompted by a series of Central Bank stimulus packages targeting residential mortgages as well as productive sectors of the economy including renewable energy and the knowledge economy. Lending to most economic sectors made strong gains through August, the latest month for which data are available, with the exception of credit to the trade sector which fell to 32.2% of private sector credit from 33.8% the year before. Meanwhile, deposit growth accelerated as banks moved some of their liquid holdings abroad to Lebanon to take advantage of BdL s swap operations. Private sector deposits rose by 5.6% yoy to $157.7bn through October, equivalent to an increase of $6.1bn in the first 10 months of the year. Lebanon will be able to sustain its deposit inflows given the wide differential between local and US rates, but a sustained increase in the latter may add upward pressure on local interest rates in coming years. To that end, BdL may be able to maintain stable interest rates in 2017, but will likely raise rates by 2% in 2018 in line with a possible 0.25% quarterly increase in the Federal Reserve Bank s benchmark rate in the coming period, stated Standard Chartered. Lebanon will be able to sustain its deposit inflows given the wide differential between local and US rates. Private sector deposits (% yoy) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 5.6% Loans: resident private sector (, Jan-Oct) 3.5 USD LBP % Oct-04 Oct-07 Oct-10 Oct-13 Oct-16 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research

6 EXPORTS POISED TO REBOUND IN 2017 DESPITE STRONGER US DOLLAR Goods and services exports may rise by 6.5% to $19.6bn in BMI Exports are up by 0.6% yoy to $2.7bn through November 2016 Lebanon s goods exports to the Eurozone are just 8.2% of total exports Lebanese exports are poised to rebound in 2017 as Lebanon s relationship with Gulf countries improves and regional trade flows pick up on higher oil prices. Exports of goods inched up by 0.6% yoy to $2.7bn in the first 11 months of 2016, including an increase of 11.5% yoy to $247.3m in November alone, Customs data showed. Relative stability in export trade in 2016 follows three consecutive years of decline which started with the escalation of the conflict in Syria in 2012 and the subsequent closure of trade routes to Iraq and Jordan in 2013 and respectively. Growth in exports of goods and services in 2017 could be supported by re-opening the blocked trade routes with Syria and Iraq following the defeat of ISIS and de-escalation of fighting in Syria by end of this year or early 2017, according to the Institute of International Finance, which sees the economy accelerating to 3.3% in 2017 from just 1.4% in Goods and services exports are projected to grow by 6.5% to $19.6bn in 2017, $1.2bn more than in 2016, according to Business Monitor International, a London-based market research company. STRONGER DOLLAR NOT AN IMPEDIMENT A stronger US Dollar, to which the Lebanese Pound is pegged, is also unlikely to fully offset an expected uptrend in export activity in The Euro tumbled to 4 against the US Dollar in late 2016, its lowest level in almost 13 years, and the Egyptian Pound plummeted to 18.1 to the dollar from 7.8 a year earlier. However, Lebanese exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council, which also maintain a peg to the US Dollar, represent nearly a quarter of total foreign trade, which may help ease some of the currency pressure on exporters. In contrast, trade with Eurozone countries represents just over 8% of Lebanon s goods exports. Exports (, Jan-Nov) With oil prices projected by the IMF to rebound by 21% in 2017, demand is slated to pick up across Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Lebanon s second largest export market after South Africa as of the first 11 months of The Kingdom released a budget for 2017 that projects a 6% increase in spending to a record $237.2bn. Higher spending, along with improving political ties with Lebanon, bodes well for trade activity with the Middle East s largest economy. Tourist arrivals from Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries are also expected to rebound in 2017, benefiting in part from deteriorating security conditions in Turkey. Lebanon s tourism services exports have been stagnant at $6.5bn to $6.8bn since 2012 after Gulf tourists shunned the country on security fears. Turkey attracted 450,674 visitors from Saudi Arabia in, 31.9% more than in 2014, and more than five times their level in 2010, data via Economena Analytics showed. Meanwhile, Saudi arrivals to Lebanon were down to a fourth of their level over the same period, and extended their decline by another 27.7% yoy in the first nine months of A political breakthrough in Lebanon in late 2016, supported by a stable security environment, is now expected to re-invigorate Gulf tourism to the country starting in EXPORTS ARE STRONGER IN LATE 2016 Export activity has already been showing signs of improvement in the second half of 2016 as trade in pearls and precious stones, the country s largest export category, regained momentum. Foreign sales of pearls and precious stones rose by 91.7% yoy to $780.5m in the first 11 months of 2016, but remain at nearly half their pre-syrian crisis levels for the period. Geographically, exports to Iran surged by 72.5% yoy to $15.4m through November, a multi-year high for the period, after a number of trade sanctions on the Persian country were lifted as part of a nuclear deal it reached with Western powers in. Exports of goods and services () Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research e 2016f 2017f 2018f Source: BMI, Economena, SGBL Research

7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , Sep , Oct , Nov , %Y/Y YTD , PYTD , Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Sep Oct Nov %Y/Y %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Sep Oct Nov %Y/Y YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Aug Sep Oct %Y/Y YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs taxes Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance Jun Jul Aug %Y/Y YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD PYTD

8 Insurance net profits ($m, ) Life insurance generated $93.4m in profits for insurance companies in, more than any other business line. Profits from health insurance and non-compulsory motor insurance topped non-life business lines with 9.4% and 9% of total profits respectively during the year. Pharmaceutical imports ($m, Jan-Nov) Lebanon s pharmaceutical bill hit a record $1.1bn in the first 11 months of 2016 despite efforts by the government to tame the country s surging healthcare costs. Lebanon is host to over 1 million registered Syrian refugees, which has likely been driving demand for medicine in recent years. Transportation, Others, Fire, ,119 Accidents, ,008 1,045 1,031 Motor Noncompulsory, 15.3 Life, Health, Beirut Reference Rate Source: ICC, Economena, SGBL Research The Beirut Reference Rate, which is set every month by the Association of Banks in Lebanon, is at a record high of 6.54% for the US Dollar. The rate is calculated using the average cost of term deposits and the average operational cost in the Lebanese banking sector. 8.9% 8.8% LBP USD 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% Cement deliveries (Jan-Oct, %yoy) Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research Cement deliveries rebounded by 8% yoy to 4.4m tons in the first 10 months of 2016, reflecting rejuvenated construction activity. A rare political agreement between rival parties has propped up confidence among developers and may help restore demand from Gulf investors in the country. 17.5% 20.5% 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 2.9% 8.5% 9.2% 5.4% 8.3% 5.4% -6.5% 8.2% -3.1% 8.0% 8.3% 5.2% Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research -12.3% Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research