UNCERTAIN FISCAL POLICY, ELECTIONS LAW CLOUD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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Basil Fisher
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1 N 55 April 2017 Page 3 Fiscal deficit at a record $4.9bn in despite stronger revenues Page 4 Private consumption offers significant promise in 2017 Page 5 Real GDP grew by 0.8% in 2015 led by financial services - CAS Page 6 Alpha Group profits surged in despite slowdown in lending Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy UNCERTAIN FISCAL POLICY, ELECTIONS LAW CLOUD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Cabinet refers draft 2017 budget to Parliament for approval Construction execution orders up by 2.6% to 7.9 million square meters in Consumer market substantially supported by remittances - BMI The Lebanese Cabinet dominated economic headlines in March, raising a record $3bn in Eurobonds and referring the 2017 draft budget law to Parliament for approval. The government s Eurobond issuance, half of which was intended to repay maturing debt during the month, was more than six times oversubscribed, reflecting elevated levels of confidence in the sovereign following a political breakthrough in late. Foreign investors snapped up an estimated $600m of the offering, equivalent to 20% of the new Eurobonds, their highest participation rate since The latest issue, however, was costlier than prior offerings, in line with higher interest rates in the US in recent months. The $1.25bn 10-year tranche issued by the government priced at 6.85%, up from 6.2% in February A 15-year tranche worth $1bn was also issued at 7%, and a $750m 20-year tranche was priced at 7.25%, according to the Ministry of Finance. The Lebanese Cabinet s draft budget for 2017 sees the deficit shrinking from a record $4.9bn in, but uncertainty remains over Parliament s ability to pass a budget for the first time since The legislative branch failed in March to approve the salary scale law referred by the Cabinet, following a popular backlash against higher taxes proposed to finance new spending. The draft budget projects an increase of 5.6% in spending to $15.7bn in The draft budget already projects an increase of 5.6% in spending to $15.7bn in 2017, with $1.4bn allocated to finance the deficit at Electricité du Liban during the year. The government is looking to lease additional power ships ahead of the peak summer season, and to partner with the private sector in the production of an estimated 1,000MW from photovoltaic farms. Despite the wider deficit in, Lebanon s public finances signaled a slight pickup in consumer and business activity after a dismal showing in Total cash receipts increased by $347.2m to $9.9bn in, as revenues from the Value Added Tax picked up by 2.4% to $2.2bn, and Customs taxes rose by 2.6% to $1.4bn. ext yr Eurobond coupon rates by issue date 6.38% March % 6.00% January 2013 April % February % March 2017 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research Public spending () f Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research

2 REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION LAGGING BEHIND The government is also stepping up its efforts to contain the deficit, partly through a series of higher taxes on construction and real estate transactions. The two sectors, however, have been struggling to cope with the economic slump in the aftermath of the Syrian conflict, and the recent green shoots of recovery remain fragile. Construction execution orders rose by a slight 2.6% to 7.9 million square meters in. Construction execution orders, typically issued shortly before construction work starts, rose by a slight 2.6% to 7.9 million square meters in, but are 18.5% off their levels in Similarly, the value of real estate sales decreased by 9.8% yoy to $1.3bn in the first two months of 2017 despite a higher number of transactions, likely reflecting softer pricing and smaller-sized deals. The construction sector has been particularly vulnerable to economic conditions in recent years. Real output from the sector fell by 12.3% from its 2013 peak to $1.4bn in 2015, contributing to 3.4% of GDP during the year from 4% two years earlier, recent data released by the Central Administration of Statistics showed. FINANCIAL SERVICES SLOWER IN EARLY 2017 Meanwhile, financial services sector, the fastest growing in 2015, was better able to manage the fallout from domestic and regional crises. Lebanon s Alpha Group banks, the 14 lenders with more than $2bn in deposits, reported record profits of $2.3bn in, an 11.9% jump over 2015, according to data compiled by Bankdata Financial Services. Profits, however, were primary driven by exceptional gains from swap operations with BdL, which helped lift fee and commission income by 75.5% to $1.5bn, and net interest income by 8% to $3.8bn. The outlook is more uncertain this year in light of uncertainty over fiscal policy, the contentious Parliamentary elections law, and ambiguity over the renewal of the Central Bank s Governor s term. Banks are projected to slow their lending growth to 3% in 2017, according to the IMF, with greater pressure on the cost of lending in foreign currencies as a result of higher rates in the US. Commercial bank loans to the private sector declined by 0.4% to $57bn in January as banks pulled the breaks on their foreign currency lending and deploying their local currency liquidity instead in the aftermath of BdL s swap operations. By contrast, deposits continued to flow into the banking sector with robust growth of 7.4% yoy by January, equivalent to an increase of $240m in the first month of the year, 80% of which in foreign currencies. ROUGH START FOR CONSUMERS, BUT OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND Sales of big ticket items such as cars have been struggling since the last quarter of and into New passenger car registrations fell by 4.3% yoy to 4,982 vehicles in the first two months of the year, with higher-priced brands, including Ferrari, Audi, and BMW posting a particularly weaker showing over the period. New car sales, however, are likely to make a U-turn in coming months with growth forecast at 4.3% in 2017 by BMI, a London-based market research company. The constructive outlook for the auto market is in line with a more bullish view of economic activity in Household spending in Lebanon is projected to grow at a robust 6.4% between and 2020, as consumers benefit from lower energy prices, according to BMI. Growth in food sales may grow at an even faster pace, reaching 7.2% in 2017 and averaging 6.9% through 2021, building on a resilient upper middle income consumer group in the country, stated BMI. The Lebanese market will be substantially supported by its reliance on remittances. The Lebanese consumer market will be substantially supported by its reliance on remittances, and the expatriate community will remain an important source of external capital, which will boost household spending amid depressed economic conditions, according to BMI. Value of real estate sales (yoy change, $m) Construction execution orders (msqm) / / / / 02/2017 Source: Land Registry, Economena, SGBL Research Source: OEAB, Economena, SGBL Research

3 GOVERNMENT FISCAL DEFICIT AT A RECORD $4.9BN IN DESPITE STRONGER REVENUES Debt servicing and transfers to municipalities at all-time highs Credit Default Swaps tightened to 40bps by end of February Foreign subscriptions in Eurobonds hit a 4-year high in March Lebanon s public finances swung to a record deficit of $4.9bn in, driven by swelling debt servicing costs as well as transfers to municipalities of amounts owed from prior years. The government had long held on to municipalities share of telecom services, but an agreement among political parties in lifted payments to local councils by 66.2% to $1bn. A rising debt stock also weighed on debt servicing costs which rose by 6.9% to a record $4.8bn in. Lebanon s public debt has accelerated in recent years as the government struggles to cope with slowing revenue growth and rising expenditure in the aftermath of the Syrian conflict and its spillovers on the country. Gross public debt grew by 7.8% yoy to $76.2bn through January 2017, equivalent to an estimated 147% of GDP. Lebanon s debt payments, however, are still within the norms of the post-war period. Debt servicing costs reached 48% of revenues in, up from 46.6% during the prior year, but still compare favorably to an average of 55.5% of revenues in the period. POSITIVE SIGNS FROM REVENUES, EUROBOND ISSUES Fiscal revenues in signaled a slight pickup in consumer and business activity after a dismal showing in Total cash receipts increased by $347.2m to $9.9bn in, as VAT revenues picked up by 2.4% to $2.2bn, and Customs taxes rose by 2.6% to $1.4bn during the year. Revenues from the main categories of income taxes, including profits, wages and salaries, and capital gains all posted positive growth in, reflecting a moderate improvement in economic activity relative to As a result, Lebanon s primary balance, which excludes debt servicing, posted a surplus of $20.6m in, an underlying sign of strength in the state s public finances. Sovereign debt investors are also signaling an improvement in the Lebanese government s ability to meet its obligations in recent months. The 5-year Credit Default Swap spread, the cost to insure against default, tightened to 420 basis points by the end of February 2017, its lowest level in 17 months, after a breakthrough among rival political parties raised hopes for an economic rebound. The 5-year Credit Default Swap spread, the cost to insure against default, tightened to 420 basis points by the end of February Improving investor confidence also helped the government raise $3bn from three fresh Eurobond issuances in late March 2017 in an offering that was 6 times oversubscribed. The government issued a $1.25bn 10-year tranche at 6.85%, a $1bn 15-year tranche at 7%, and a $750m 20-year tranche at 7.25% with foreign investors subscribing to 20% of the total, their highest level of participation in four years, data compiled by Economena Analytics showed. Foreign subscriptions to Eurobonds (% of total) Fiscal deficit () 30% 28% 30% % 20% 15% 10% 9% Nov 2010 May 2011 Apr 2012 Apr 2013 Feb 2015 Nov 2015 Apr Mar 2017 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research

4 CONSUMER PRIVATE CONSUMPTION OFFERS SIGNIFICANT PROMISE IN 2017 Retail sales of food and beverages rose by 10% yoy in Q4 Consumer confidence up 48.2% yoy in the first two months of 2017 Food sales are projected to grow by 7.2% in 2017 as per BMI A stable security situation and expectations of more robust tourism activity will likely help lift private consumption in Lebanon in An index of consumer confidence released by ARA Research & Marketing Consultancy rose by an average of 48.2% yoy in the first two months of the year, reflecting sustained improvement in sentiment following a political breakthrough at the end of last year. Consumer demand appears stronger at the start of the year with several import categories regaining momentum in January following a slump in. Imports of vegetable products as well as live animals and animal products rose by 37.4% yoy to $90.1m and by 15.7% yoy to $72.2m respectively during the month. Demand for machinery and electrical equipment, vehicles, and plastics also picked up in January amid greater optimism over economic activity in the coming year. The strong start of the year follows resurgence in retail activity across several key categories in the fourth quarter of, data by the Lebanese Franchise Association via Economena Analytics showed. Spending on medical services and food and beverages increased by 10.8% yoy and 10% yoy respectively, making them the fastest growing consumer segments during the quarter. Spending on medical services increased by 10.8% yoy in the fourth quarter of. On the other hand, the economic slowdown and scarcity of high-income tourists from the Gulf Cooperation Council continued to weigh on retail sales of luxury items and cosmetics which fell by 3.1% yoy and 12.8% yoy respectively in the fourth quarter. Sales of big ticket items such as cars also struggled in the last quarter of and into New passenger car registrations fell by 4.3% yoy to 4,982 vehicles in the first two months of the year, with higher-priced brands, including Ferrari, Audi, and BMW posting a particularly weaker showing over the period. New car sales, however, are likely to turn around throughout the rest of the year with a forecast growth of 4.3% according to the Business Monitor International (BMI), a London-based market research company. The constructive outlook for the auto market is in line with a more bullish view of economic activity in Household spending in Lebanon is projected to grow at a robust 6.4% between and 2020, as consumers benefit from lower energy prices, according to BMI. Growth in food sales may grow at an even faster pace, reaching 7.2% in 2017 and averaging 6.9% through 2021, building on a resilient upper middle income consumer group in the country, stated BMI. LFA retail sales indices in 4q16 (%yoy) New passenger car registrations (Jan-Feb) Medical Services Food and Beverages Sports and Hobbies Tourism 2.4% 1.5% 10.8% 10.0% 5,204 4,930 4,982 4,723 4,577 4,467 Household Goods 1.3% Hospitality Luxury Items -1.2% -3.1% 3,542 3,796 Clothing -7.3% Cosmetics -12.8% Source: LFA, Economena, SGBL Research Source: AIA, Economena, SGBL Research

5 ECONOMY REAL GDP GREW BY 0.8% IN 2015 LED BY FINANCIAL SERVICES, AS PER CAS Real output from construction fell to a decade low of 3.4% of GDP in 2015 Financial services sector was the fastest growing in 2015 Private education up 22.2% since 2012 in a major comeback Lebanon s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.8% to $42.1bn in 2015, its slowest pace in over a decade, data released by the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) showed. The official data released by CAS fell slightly short of the IMF s estimates of 1% real GDP growth for 2015, but were in line with the IMF s 2% growth figures for Nominal GDP, which measures the value at current prices of all goods and services produced in the country during the year, grew by 3.4% to $49.5bn in The latest statistics released by CAS describe limited structural change in economic activity in the country between 2013 and In particular, output in the construction sector declined by 12.3% from its peak in 2013 to reach a 6-year low of $1.4bn by 2015, with its contribution to GDP also falling to 3.4% during the year from a high of 4% in Aside from construction, agriculture and forestry witnessed the sharpest downturn in output in Real output from the primary sector shrank by 19% to $866.2m during the year, contributing to 2.1% of GDP. Mining, manufacturing, livestock, and real estate all registered a contraction in real output during the year, weighing on overall economic growth. On the other hand, financial services sector was the fastest growing with a double-digit leap in real output to $3.3bn in 2015, equivalent to 7.9% of GDP. Cheaper gasoline prices also helped fuel demand for transport services which grew by 9.5% to $1.6bn in 2015, making it the second fastest growing sector during the year. Hotels and restaurants posted a rebound in activity in 2015 after four consecutive years in decline. Real output from the sector grew by 2.4% to $1bn, still 11.4% off its peak in Growth in wholesale and retail trade, Lebanon s largest economic sector, also accelerated to 4.7% in 2015, reaching $6.1bn in real output and 14.4% of GDP. Hotels and restaurants posted a rebound in activity in 2015 after four consecutive years in decline. Other sectors weathering the economic slowdown in 2015 include private education which grew by 4.1% to $2.7bn during the year, capping a three-year period of fast growth that saw output from the sector reach 6.4% of GDP from 5.5% in Real GDP growth is estimated to have stagnated in at 1%, according to the IMF, but is projected to more than double in 2017 following a domestic political breakthrough and improving relations between Lebanon and the Gulf Cooperation Council. GDP at current prices () GDP by economic activity (% of total) Others, 45.0% Wholesale & Retail Trade, 14.4% Real Estate, 12.6% Public Administration, 9.6% Financial Professional Services, services, Education, 7.9% 4.2% 6.4% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research

6 ALPHA GROUP PROFITS SURGED IN DESPITE SLOWDOWN IN LENDING Net profits hit a record $2.3bn in on exceptional gains Provisions by Alpha Group banks rose by 87% to $794.5m on write offs abroad Banking activity is cooler at the start of 2017 Lebanon s Alpha Group banks, the 14 lenders with more than $2bn in deposits, reported record profits of $2.3bn in, an 11.9% jump over 2015, according to data compiled by Bankdata Financial Services. Profits were primary driven by exceptional gains from swap operations with Banque du Liban, which helped lift fee and commission income by 75.5% to $1.5bn, and net interest income by 8% to $3.8bn. The swap operations led to a reduction in the Alpha Group banks holdings of BdL-issued Certificates of Deposit in local currency by 35% to $13bn at the end of, and instead tripled their dollar-denominated BdL-issued CDs to $16.8bn. Despite higher profits, banks were more cautious in as the domestic and regional operating environments remain sour throughout much of the year. Loans growth at Alpha Group banks slowed to 2.2% in from 5.7% the prior year even as customer deposits grew by 3.9%. Several of Lebanon s largest banks wrote off their investments abroad, particularly in conflict-stricken Syria and Sudan. Those write offs, along with stricter provisioning policies, led to an increase of 87% in provisions for credit losses to $794.5m in. Alpha banks asset quality still appears robust with gross doubtful loans resuming their decline to reach 5.4% of total loans by the end of from 5.5% in Furthermore, Alpha banks reduced their foreign network by 69 branches to 353 branches during the year, while growing their footprint in Lebanon by 22 branches to 834. Total bank staff also fell by 1.3% to 28,611 staff in in line with banks fewer branches. Despite a smaller headcount, Lebanon s 14 largest banks by deposits reported a 9.7% increase in staff expenses to $1.7bn in, along with a whopping 31.7% surge to $1.3bn in administrative and other operating expenses. Alpha Group, Assets () Net Profit ($m) Bank Audi BLOM Bank Fransabank SGBL Bank of Beirut Byblos Bank BankMed BLF IBL Bank Credit Libanais BBAC Creditbank First National Bank Lebanon and Gulf Bank Alpha Group , Source: Bankdata Financial Services, Economena, SGBL Research BANKING ACTIVITY IS COOLER AT THE START OF 2017 Banking activity in Lebanon appears even cooler at the start of 2017, partly reflecting uncertainty over the renewal of the Central Bank s Governor s term. Loans to the private sector declined by 0.4% to $57bn in January with banks pulling the breaks on their foreign currency lending and deploying their local currency liquidity instead in the aftermath of BdL s swap operations. By contrast, deposits continued to flow into the banking sector through January with robust growth of 7.4% yoy, equivalent to an increase of $240m in the first month of the year, 80% of which in foreign currencies. Private sector deposit growth accelerated to 7.2% through December, equivalent to an increase of $10.9bn in deposits at commercial banks many of which brought in some of their foreign currency abroad to take part in BdL s swap operations. However, private sector lending slowed considerably to 5.5% by the end of, with net loan production by banks reaching $3bn during the year compared with $3.3bn in Productive lending opportunities were limited throughout much of amid political deadlock at the time. Loans to the industrial and trade sectors both lost market share during the year, while personal loans, which include housing credit and auto loans among others, remained buoyant, growing to 30.8% of total credit at the end of from 29.2% in Banks are projected to slow their lending growth even further to 3% in 2017, according to the IMF, with rising upward pressure on the cost of lending in foreign currencies as a result of higher rates in the US. The Beirut Reference Rate, which is fixed on a monthly basis by the Association of Banks in Lebanon, is already 39 basis points higher in April 2017 than the same month in. Private sector deposits (change, ) Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , Nov , , Jan n.a , YTD n.a , PYTD , Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Jan Feb n.a %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Nov Jan YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Nov Jan YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs taxes Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance Oct Nov YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD PYTD

Beirut 4- and 5-star hotel occupancy rates Beirut s 4- and 5-star hotels are reaping the benefits of stable security, growing their occupancy rate to an average of 62% in the first two months of 2017.

8 Beirut 4- and 5-star hotel occupancy rates Beirut s 4- and 5-star hotels are reaping the benefits of stable security, growing their occupancy rate to an average of 62% in the first two months of Revenue per available room, a key performance metric, is also up by 9.5% yoy to $87 through February. Real output in real estate and construction (% change) Output in the real estate and construction sectors fell by 2.6% and 9.9% respectively in 2015, the most severe downturn for the two sectors since at least 2004, official data by the Central Administration of Statistics showed. 68% 70% 62% 62% 25% 20% 15% Real estate Construction 55% 53% 56% 10% 5% 43% 39% Source: EY, Economena, SGBL Research 0% -5% -10% -15% -2.6% -9.9% 2005 "06 "07 "08 " "11 "12 "13 " Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Value of tourist tax refunds at Beirut Airport (% change) Monthly income distribution in Lebanon in 2014 Despite the influx of greater numbers of tourists in, estimated spending still slumped by 8.9%, according to Global Blue, a tax refund company. The near absence of high-income tourists from the Gulf Cooperation Council is hurting foreign spending in the country. 55.7% Average monthly income in Lebanon reached $1,242 in 2014 with an effective tax rate of 5.8%, data by the Ministry of Finance showed. An estimated 18% of employees, self-employed individuals, and proprietors who filed their taxes during the year reported monthly income of over $1, % 16.8% 12.8% 21.0% 9.7% 0.9% 1.9% 13.4% 23.2% 11.6% -8.6% -8.9% 4.8% 1.6% Source: Global Blue, Economena, SGBL Research <$333 $333 to $833 $833 to $1,667 $1,667 to $3,333 $3,333 to $6,667 >$6,667 Source: UNDP, Economena, SGBL Research

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDED TO 5-YEAR HIGH IN 1Q 2016

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDED TO 5-YEAR HIGH IN 1Q 2016 N 45 June 2016 Page 3 Bank lending accelerates despite slowdown in deposit growth Page 4 Construction activity may be turning the corner Page 5 Fiscal deficit hits record $1.4bn in the first quarter Page