LEBANON TO APPEAL FOR $9.8BN AT SYRIA DONORS CONFERENCE

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Frederick Todd
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1 N 41 February 2016 Page 3 Beirut stocks outperformed regional peers in 2015 Page 4 Deposits to face headwinds from low oil prices Page 5 Slowing construction activity points to shrinking new supply Page 6 Lebanon has $1.5bn in Eurobonds maturing in 2016 Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy LEBANON TO APPEAL FOR $9.8BN AT SYRIA DONORS CONFERENCE The government will seek $4bn in concessional financing over 5 years for infrastructure. Tourist arrivals hit a four-year high of 1.52m visitors in Lebanese expatriates are a buffer against deeper turmoil - HSBC. The Lebanese government will ask international donors at the Syria conference in London for a $9.8bn commitment to assist an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees and to help vulnerable Lebanese communities. Lebanon requires over $2.48bn in 2016 to provide humanitarian assistance and protection to almost 2.8 million highly vulnerable individuals and invest in services, economies, and institutions, according to the Lebanese Crisis Response Plan (LCRP) produced by the ed Nations Development Program. In addition to the LCRP, Lebanon is proposing a 5-year strategy that would provide education to all Syrian refugees aged 3 to 18 years at a cost of $300m per annum. The plan includes a major construction, rehabilitation, and school expansion program in addition to vocational training and other forms of academic inclusion initiatives. The government is also appealing for another $843.5m per year to promote the creation of up to 350,000 new jobs, 60% of which for Syrians, through investments in municipal projects, agriculture, solid waste, prison expansion, and the reconstruction of the Nahr-el Bared Palestinian camp. Finally, Lebanon is seeking up to $4bn over 5 years in concessional loans from the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for large infrastructure projects in the energy, transport, water, and public services sectors. THE ECONOMY BARELY GREW IN 2015 The Lebanese economy has been hit hard by the Syrian conflict, posting $13.1bn in losses since 2012, including $5.6bn in 2015 alone, according to World Bank estimates. Indeed, growth in 2015 ground to a halt, with economic activity growing by 0% to 1%, according to estimates by Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. Summary of Lebanon appeal at the Syria donors conference in London ($m) Program Amount per year Number of years Total Lebanon Crisis Response Plan 2, ,480 Education ,500 Municipalities ,000 Subsidized Temporary Employment Program Waste Nahr-el Bared Prison Sub-total 3,624 5,879 Large infrastructure projects ,000 Total 4,424 9,879 Source: Lebanese Government, Economena, SGBL Research Note: Data are preliminary

2 In particular, real estate and banking indicators reflected waning investor confidence amid a protracted domestic political standoff, and uncertainty over the evolution of the conflict in neghbouring Syria. Real estate transactions shrank by 10.54% to $8.01bn in 2015, and cement deliveries, a proxy for construction activity, slumped 12.33% yoy to 4.11m tons in the first 10 months. Private sector credit grew by $2.32bn in the first 11 months of 2015, down from $3.13bn over the same period in. Exports fell for the third year in a row, down 10.88% to $2.95bn in Exports also fell for the third year in a row, down 10.88% to $2.95bn, but a precipitous and continuous decline in oil prices helped keep the country s imports in check, leaving a trade deficit of $15.12bn in 2015, $2bn less than in. The savings from a cheaper energy bill were not enough to reign in the balance of payments deficit which reached a record $3bn in 2015, driven mainly by $1.8bn in dues paid by the Lebanese government. Business activity was hit by weaker domestic and foreign demand, but output decelerated at a slower pace than in previous years. The value of cleared cheques fell by 6.77% yoy to $63.58bn in the first 11 months, while the Purchasing Managers Index averaged 48.4 points in 2015 compared with 47.6 points in. Tourist arrivals hit a four-year high of 1.52m arrivals On the other hand, tourism activity rebounded for the second year in a row as tourist arrivals hit a four-year high of 1.52 million visitors in Occupancy rates at Beirut s 4-and 5-star hotels averaged 56% during the year, up from 52% in, coupled with an 8.7% improvement in Revenue per Available Room to $99. A higher number of tourists likely contributed to higher private consumption, especially in the first half of 2015 prior to the solid waste crisis and social unrest. Tourist spending rose by an estimated 2% during the year, its fastest pace since 2011, according to Value Added Tax refund data published by Global Blue. Private consumption also received a bump from cheaper gasoline prices and a stronger US Dollar, boosting demand for new passenger car sales which rose by 4.09% to 39,361 vehicles in Meanwhile, Beirut-listed stocks were spared the wild swings in international equity markets in Beirut s stocks came out on top, beating nearly all regional markets, including those in the Gulf where plummeting oil prices weighed heavily on stock prices. The market index was virtually unchanged at the end of the year, offering a safe haven for investors amid heightened global uncertainty, but it remains nearly 44.8% below its peak in July 2008, reflecting the precarious political and security environment in Lebanon and Syria. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS POOR Regional and domestic instability should continue to constrain economic activity in 2016 and 2017 in the absence of a resolution to the conflict in Syria, stated Fitch, a ratings agency. Fitch projected acceleration in real growth to 1.5% in 2016 and 2% in 2017 from 1.2% in Despite the poor outlook for the economy, Lebanon s large expatriate population acts as a buffer against an even deeper downturn, according to HSBC. In particular, non-resident deposits still contribute to the banking system s ability to meet the government s financing and roll-over needs. Real private sector credit growth is expected to remain stable at 8% in 2016, while private consumption would slow to 1% growth from 1.7%, predicted HSBC. However, public spending and investment are seen accelerating to 1.2% in 2016 from 1% in 2015, and to 1% from 0.5% respectively. Tourist arrivals (millions) Exports () Source: MoT, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research

3 STOCK EXCHANGES BEIRUT STOCKS OUTPERFORMED REGIONAL PEERS IN 2015 BSE index fell by 0.1% in 2015, but was ahead of all Gulf markets and the S&P 500. Trading activity declined 4.91% yoy to $629m as foreign investors remain absent. Solidere A shares closed 2.3% lower at $11.06 with only $84.5m worth of shares traded. Beirut s stocks came out on top in 2015, beating nearly all regional markets, including those in the Gulf where plummeting oil prices weighed heavily on stock prices. Beirut s stock market index was virtually unchanged at the end of the year, but remains nearly 44.8% below its peak in July 2008, reflecting the precarious political and security environment in Lebanon and neighboring Syria. The value of traded shares fell slightly to $629m in 2015 from $661.4m on slower trading in both banking and Solidere shares. Trading activity in the developer of Downtown Beirut shrank by another 6.9% to $84.51m in 2015 compared with $1.25bn in traded shares in its heyday in 2008, on the back of a cooling real estate market and waning interest from Gulf investors. The value of traded shares fell slightly to $629m in 2015 from $661.4m on slower trading in both banking and Solidere shares. Instead, banks are attracting increasing levels of investor interest with $537m in banking shares changing hands in 2015, equivalent to 85.4% of market activity during the year, up from $310.2m and 18% in The sector has succeeded in weathering the effects of regional and domestic conflicts over the past 5 years. Profits of the country s 14 Alpha banks, those with over $2bn in deposits, grew 9.72% yoy to $1.5bn in the first nine months of the year despite rising provisions and stricter lending requirements in the sector. Banking stocks have also consistently paid out annual cash dividends while Solidere relied on stock dividends in recent years. The beating that Lebanese stocks took in the early years following the Syrian conflict is shielding investors from the wild swings witnessed in international stock indices in recent months. Saudi's Tadawul, Dubai Financial Market, and the S&P 500 have already shed 17.6%, 12.6%, and 6.9% of their value respectively through January 27, while Beirut stocks declined by 1.8%. Listed Lebanese stocks are generally less correlated to global trends, given their focus on the local market. The exchange, however, lacks the liquidity levels that large investors and funds typically require, and is a poor reflection of the structure of the Lebanese economy. The Central Bank announced in 2015 that the Capital Markets Authority will be issuing a license for the launch of a privately-owned online electronic market for stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. The state-owned BSE has failed to attract sufficient interest from companies, and has only 10 listed companies. BSE trading value ($m) Others 440 Banking 1,529 Real estate , Source: BSE, Economena, SGBL Research Market performance in 2015 (%yoy) SSE China NIKKEI 225 S&P 500 Lebanon Tunisia Jordan Syria FTSE 100 Abu Dhabi Morocco Oman Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Dubai Saudi Arabia Egypt -0.1% -0.1% -2.0% -2.0% -3.4% -4.7% -5.6% -7.8% -14.2% -14.9% -15.1% -15.5% -16.5% -17.1% -21.8% 9.4% 8.7% Source: KAMCO, Economena, SGBL Research

4 BANKING DEPOSITS TO FACE HEADWINDS FROM LOW OIL PRICES Deposits to face pressure from low oil prices, rising competition in the Gulf. Kafalat-guaranteed loans down 14.8% to $93.3m in Deposit dollarization rate stable at 64.6% in November Deposit growth may slow in 2016 as the slide in oil prices cuts through public spending in the oil-driven economies of the Gulf and Africa where a significant proportion of Lebanese expatriates work. Intensifying competition from Gulf-based banks, in part through higher interest rates, may also weigh on transfers by expatriates to the Lebanese banking system. Remittance inflows are a major source of funds for Lebanese banks, enabling them to finance the public deficit and private sector projects. Remittances have remained stable at around $7.5bn per year over the period, reflecting a high level of inelasticity to domestic turbulence. But deposit growth is still slowing despite stable remittances, weighed on by low foreign direct investment and sluggish domestic economic activity. Private sector deposits grew by just 4.95% yoy to $149.8bn through November, equivalent to $5.38bn in the first 11 months, their slowest pace since Poor economic growth prospects and deteriorating public finances are also increasing banks reliance on expatriate inflows for foreign currency deposits, according to Standard & Poor s (S&P). Foreign currency deposits made up 64.6% of private sector deposits at the end of November, almost unchanged over the past five years. Banks already cut back their loan production sharply in 2015 in a bid to maintain high liquidity, but also in part due to softer demand as a result of fewer investment opportunities. Private sector credit grew by 5.36% yoy to $53.22bn through November, including a net increase of $2.32bn in the first 11 months of 2015, down from $3.13bn over the same period in. Private sector credit grew by 5.36% yoy to $53.22bn through November SMEs financing was hit hard despite Central Bank incentives, amid waning investor confidence and uncertainty over export demand. The value of loan guarantees issued by Kafalat fell by 14.8% to $93.3m over 677 guarantees in Meanwhile, a series of stimulus packages offering banks access to up to $1bn per year at 1% are helping banks extend loans to consumers and investors at the lowest interest rates in the country s history. The weighted average interest rate on local currency discount and loans reached 7.13% in October, compared with 8.15% in 2010, and 10.5% in Record low interest rates do not reflect higher risks and a more difficult domestic and regional operating environment. Those difficulties may weigh on asset quality in certain sectors, according to S&P. Loan quality metrics do not reflect the payment flexibility options that banks are offering borrowers in need, but lenders should be able to deal with some deterioration in asset quality anyway, stated S&P. Deposits and debt (moving sum, %yoy) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Private sector deposits Gross public debt 0% Nov-99 Nov-03 Nov-07 Nov-11 Nov-15 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Private sector deposits (Jan-Nov, ) Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

5 REAL ESTATE SLOWING CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY POINTS TO SHRINKING NEW SUPPLY Developers are more focused on smaller units outside Beirut. Cement deliveries decline sharply in the absence of new mega-projects. Construction activity may pick up in Tripoli and the North in Real estate sales were hit by the economic slump in 2015 after holding up relatively well in previous years. Transactions shrank by 10.58% to $8.01bn in 2015, reflecting largely a cooling in land sales as developers delayed investment decisions and banks became more conservative in their lending to the sector. Sales of land units fell by 17.2% to $2.55bn in 2015, while those of built-up units slid by 9.4% to $5.01bn, according to preliminary data from the Real Estate Registry, as Central Bank stimulus helped prop up the residential property market. Construction activity also declined sharply in 2015 following a decrease in new project starts, especially mega-projects. Projects started before the Syrian conflict intensified had kept the market relatively buoyant, but a steep 12.33% yoy drop in cement deliveries to 4.11m tons in the first 10 months marked the end of the construction boom in Lebanon. Construction activity may still slow further from its current levels in the next 1-2 years, but will likely remain supported by resilient fundamental demand for residential units from Lebanese buyers. Construction permits, which are typically issued 6 to 12 months before developers break ground, fell by 8.93% to 12.34m sqm in 2015, promising a smaller supply to the market in coming years and softer demand for cement. In particular, Beirut should feel the pinch more than other regions as developers increase their focus on districts in close proximity to the capital where cheaper land prices help keep residential units more affordable to Lebanese investors. Developers are also more focused on smaller units with the average area per construction permit falling to 817sqm in 2015 compared with 1,167sqm in Permits issued for construction in Beirut were the hardest hit in 2015, down 28.77% to 668,030 sqm, while Tripoli and Mount Lebanon were affected the least with declines of 1.88% to 230,545 sqm and 5.64% to 5.9m sqm respectively. Data even point to a possible pick up in construction activity and demand for cement in Tripoli in Construction execution orders issued by the Order of Engineers in Tripoli hit a record high of 1.85m sqm in 2015 as the country s second most populous city and the North slowly recover after several years of clashes. Permits and cement (m, 12m moving sum) Real estate transactions () Average area per construction permit (sqm, 12m moving average) 1,200 1,100 1, Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Source: OEB, OET, Economena, SGBL Research Construction permits area in 2015 (millions, sqm) Beirut, 0.67, 6% Bekaa, 1.01, 8% Nabatieh, 1.03, 8% S. Lebanon, 1.52, 12% N. Lebanon, 1.98, 16% Tripoli, 0.23, 2% Mt. Lebanon, 5.91, 48% Source: OEB, OET, Economena, SGBL Research 20 Construction permits (sqm) Cement deliveries (tons) Dec-05 Apr-09 Aug-12 Dec-15 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Source: CADASTRE, Economena, SGBL Research

6 LEBANON HAS $1.5BN IN EUROBONDS MATURING IN 2016 A $600m Eurobond is due in April, and another $400m in May. A downgrade by S&P would place Lebanon at CCC+, a rating it held briefly in More fiscal savings from lower oil prices are expected in 2016/2017. Lebanon has $1.5bn in Eurobonds maturing in the remainder of 2016, including $600m in April and $400m in May, amid jittery global financial markets and a protracted domestic political crisis. A portion of a $750m Eurobond maturing in January 2016, equivalent to $318.3m, has already been exchanged for new debt, while $432m remained outstanding as of November. The government s total foreign currency debt obligations, including coupon payments, are estimated at $3.8bn in 2016 and $4.08bn in 2017 as of November 30, Lebanon successfully raised $1.6bn in early November, but saw a decline in interest from foreign investors. Foreigners picked up just 10% of the issuance, down from 15% in the previous issuance in February, and 30% in issuances between 2010 and The latest debt issue also came after Standard & Poor s, a global credit ratings agency, revised its outlook in September on Lebanon s long-term sovereign ratings to negative. The agency cited serious risks to economic growth, and political deadlock that has left the country without a President since May and without a budget since Lebanon currently has a B- rating, and a downgrade by one notch would place it at CCC+, a rating it held briefly in 2008 following a series of assassinations and in the aftermath of the Nahr El Bared war. Over the past three months, however, political risks appear to have considerably subsided. Parliament convened in mid-november and almost unanimously approved critical financial laws, foreign grants, and a citizenship law. Political parties also managed to resolve a Cabinet deadlock following a breakthrough in military appointments, promising a return to regular sessions after several months of paralysis. Debt service (% of fiscal revenues, 12 month moving sum) In Syria, the international community succeeded in presenting a united front to kick start negotiations between the warring parties in Geneva. Hopes for a resolution remain dim, but an abatement of the conflict would reflect positively on investor and consumer confidence in Lebanon. PUBLIC DEBT IS ACCELERATING The recent thaw in domestic political relations is unlikely to lead to the economic reforms needed to reduce the state s deficit and stimulate the economy. The deficit widened by 17.38% yoy to $2.61bn in the first nine months of 2015, its second highest level on record. Debt service hit a record high of $3.13bn in the first nine months of 2015, but it s ratio to fiscal revenues of 42.8% remains well below historical levels. The widening deficit pushed gross public debt up by 5.72% to $70.44bn at the end of November, 38.5% in foreign currency. The debt stock, a reflection of cumulative budget deficits, increased by $3.86bn in the first 11 months of 2015, compared with $3.14bn over the same period in. The government also holds $9.5bn in deposits at commercial banks and the Central Bank, leaving a net public debt of $60.94bn. MORE SAVINGS FROM LOWER OIL PRICES Slow economic growth and political uncertainty will likely continue to weigh on the public deficit in 2016, but lower oil prices should offer the state-owned electricity company some more respite in 2016 and Government transfers to Electricité du Liban fell by 42.64% yoy to $888.4m in the first nine months of 2015, and may decline even more following the steep decline in crude oil prices in international markets. Lower electricity transfers may be partially offset by a possible solid waste export plan as well as a higher number of public service employees. Lebanon is expected to post a deficit of 9.5% of GDP in 2016 and a primary deficit of 0.7% of GDP, according to Standard & Poor s. The debt-to-gdp ratio is also seen rising to 139.1% in 2016 from 137.5% in 2015 even as real GDP growth picks up to 2.5% during the year. Foreign subscriptions to new Eurobond issues (% of total) 70% 60% 30% 28% 30% 20% 50% 40% 43% 15% 10% 30% Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research Nov-10 May-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Feb-15 Nov-15 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research

7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , Oct , Nov , Dec , YTD , PYTD , Indices Consumer confidence index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Oct Nov Dec %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Sep Oct Nov YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Sep Oct Nov YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance $m Jul Aug Sep YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD PYTD

Exports by destination country ($m, 2015) Lebanon s exports suffered a third consecutive year of decline in 2015.

8 Exports by destination country ($m, 2015) Lebanon s exports suffered a third consecutive year of decline in Customs data showed a decline in foreign sales to each of the country s top 10 destinations, except Egypt, where exports increased by 5.27% to $88.24m. KSA; 357; 12.1% Beirut hotel occupancy rate (12 month moving average) Occupancy rates at Beirut s 4-and 5-star hotels rebounded to 56% in 2015 from 52% in, but remain well below pre-syrian conflict levels. Occupancy rates also appear to have stagnated since the summer months on the back of a prolonged solid waste crisis. 80% Other ; 1,298; 43.9% Turkey; 77; 2.6% Qatar; 79; 2.7% Egypt; 88; 3.0% UAE; 313; 10.6% Iraq; 225; 7.6% Syria; 210; 7.1% South Africa; 195; 6.6% Jordan; 112; 3.8% Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research 70% 60% 55.7% 50% 40% Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Source: EY, Economena, SGBL Research Consumer confidence (12 month moving average) Consumers confidence in their future incomes and the economy surged to their highest levels in over two years. Falling oil prices, improved security, and political dialogue are helping anchor consumer expectations of better purchasing power and an economic rebound. 100 Outstanding Lebanese government Eurobonds () Yields on Lebanese Eurobonds are on the rise in line with domestic and regional instability, the Fed s interest rate plans, and uncertainty over the global economy. The yield on a 10-year Eurobond maturing in 2020 hit 5.92% in October from 5.26% three months earlier. 7.5% 90 Future Individual Income Index 80 Future Economic Situation Index % % % Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Source: ARA, Economena, SGBL Research SAVE AND WE LL HELP YOU SOGEPARGNE FIDELITE 4.5% Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDED TO 5-YEAR HIGH IN 1Q 2016

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDED TO 5-YEAR HIGH IN 1Q 2016 N 45 June 2016 Page 3 Bank lending accelerates despite slowdown in deposit growth Page 4 Construction activity may be turning the corner Page 5 Fiscal deficit hits record $1.4bn in the first quarter Page