Exploring the elements of an effective recovery process

Transcription

1 Exploring the elements of an effective recovery process David Johnston, Douglas Paton Julia Becker, Ros Houghton, Sarb Johal, Kevin Ronan, Kathy Stuart, Tom Wilson Joint Centre for Disaster Research Massey/GNS Science

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3 Case studies Ruahehu eruptions Ohura floods 1998 Te Anau earthquake 2003 Waikato Weather Bomb 2002 Manawatu floods 2004 Bay of Plenty floods 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami 2004 Matata debris flow 2005 Kaitaia floods 2006 Canterbury snow storm 2006 Samoa tsunami 2009 Canterbury earthquake 2010

4 Main themes 1. Community involvement 2. The provision of information 3. Procedures for making recovery decisions

5 Ohakune risk perceptions and economic impacts, following the Ruapehu eruptions Surveyed risk perception compared to economic impacts Three employment groups found Risk perception varied between groups

6 Hazard Effects Ash fall lahar Vulnerability Low Low High Community: Employment Group Agriculture Independent income Winter Sports Low Risk Perception Low Risk Perception Non Participation in Mitigation High Risk perception Photo courtesy of I. Nairn Ruapehu: Perceived vulnerability & risk

7 2003 Te Anau earthquake Primary school kept open Secondary school closed for the day Primary school principal arranged a series of activities to help children cope with the earthquake Public meetings post-event

8 The tale of two storms 2002 Weather bomb June 2002 Coromandel February 2004 Lower North Island Big and even bigger

9 The Weather Bomb June 2002 Rapidly developing low pressure system dropping 16 hpa in 24 hours Metservice issued severe weather warnings Term weather bomb used in press release on 19 June to alert to probable extreme wind and rainfall

10 Undertook survey in September 2003 aimed at evaluating the direct and indirect costs of the event Modelling the regional economic effects Assess community impacts and their understanding of the flood risk and warnings

11 Summary of economic impacts» $8M Insured loss» $2.1M Uninsured loss» $3.1M Response agency costs TOTAL: $13.2M = DIRECT COSTS cf. TCDC industry output $1031M, household consumption $398M source: NZIER/GNS INDIRECT COSTS: Negligible business disruption costs Negligible flow-on impacts at a regional scale $0.5M Insurance excess payments SOCIAL / INTANGIBLE COSTS?

12 Weather Bomb - Key conclusions Regional modelled economic impacts were negligible but do not account for social impacts and extreme individual losses Difficult to capture the full range of indirect and intangible losses (or benefits) Need longitudinal sampling to gauge true medium to longer term impacts, and to consider cumulative impacts From community meeting: anger and frustration largest social impact, governing residents mitigation decisions Central Government approved relief package need to follow ongoing process and impacts

13 Next February 2004 floods

14 Add weather maps Deep low developed east of NZ High rainfall and SE winds over 120km/h

15 Manawatu Impact Summary Wide spread impacts over lower North Island and upper South Island Over 400 houses flood impacted and over 2500 evacuated Massive erosion in hill country Over 9000 km of roads closed and 20 bridges destroyed Insured loss expected to exceed $300 million

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20 Matata debris flow: May 2005 Risk-acceptance decision making Photo courtesy of Whakatane Beacon

21 2006 South Island snow storms Widespread school closures Vulnerable populations exposed Vulnerable infrastructure Gender issues

22 Main themes 1. Community involvement 2. The provision of information 3. Procedures for making recovery decisions