What to Do When the Actuary s Answer is Too High. Timothy C. Mosler, FCAS, MAAA
|
|
- Jeremy Henry
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 What to Do When the Actuary s Answer is Too High Timothy C. Mosler, FCAS, MAAA February 25, 2016
2 Agenda Tim Mosler s Background Disclaimer Basics of Reserve/Funding Analysis 3 Reactions When the Client Disagrees Loss Development Illustration Summary exhibit examples Common Issues Case Reserve Strengthening Declining Loss Cost in Recent Years Aggressive Settlements Questions 1
3 Tim Mosler Background Education B.S. in Mathematics from Florida Atlantic ACAS in May 2003, FCAS in May 2004 Experience National Council on Compensation Insurance ( ) Towers Watson ( ) Pinnacle Actuarial Resources (2014 ) Hundreds of discussions with clients about reserve analysis results! 2
4 Disclaimer This presentation is not intended to imply that any actuarial study is producing a result that is too high. The best estimate of reserves or funding in any given situation requires a formal actuarial analysis and an actuary s best estimate should be their own independent opinion. This presentation is focused on allowing the user of an actuary s report to understand the actuary s opinion and potentially help to refine the opinion. 3
5 Reserve/Funding Analysis at 12/31/2015 Hypothetical self insurance program Self Insures a portion of its liability lines Examples Auto liability, General liability, and Workers compensation Retention = $500,000 per claim Fiscal year runs 1/1 12/31 Typical results provided by the actuary Indicated Reserves at 12/31/2015 Projected Funding for 2016 Possibly projections for future years 4
6 Reserve/Funding Analysis at 12/31/2015 Actuarial Analysis Segregates data by accident period Ultimate losses are estimated for each accident period Based on a series of projection methods Indicated Reserves = Ultimate losses minus paid through 12/31/ Funding = Ultimate loss estimate for 2015 (and possibly older years) with an adjustment for trend 5
7 Client Reactions to Actuarial Results Agree with the actuary Client may or may not have their own opinion Disagree with the actuary leads to three basic options Accept the result anyway Ask the actuary to change or to provide additional scenarios Challenge the actuary The remainder of the presentation assumes that, at least initially, there is disagreement and the client believes (or would like) a lower answer 6
8 Option 1 Accept the Result Could be the best option if The financial effect is small Time is limited There is a high level of trust in the actuary May still be best to get an explanation from the actuary 7
9 Option 2 Ask the Actuary to Change Re review of the selections There is a reasonable range of indications There is a range for each actuarial assumption that goes into creating the indication Asking creates a dilemma for the actuary Explicitly provide a range Does not affect income after the first year unless the point in the range changes Year 1 Reserve indication increases by $5M. Client only increase $2M Year 2 Reserve indication increases by $5M again. Now, client also has to increase $5M or go lower in the range. 8
10 Option 3 Challenge the Actuary Some combination of Stating that the answer is higher than expected Gathering data or requesting data from the actuary Identifying how the data conflicts with the actuary s recommended reserve Asking the actuary to revisit the selections in the analysis. 9
11 Loss Development Illustration 10
12 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2007 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
13 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2008 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
14 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2009 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
15 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2010 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
16 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2011 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
17 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2012 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
18 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2013 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
19 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2014 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
20 Incurred Loss Development Through 12/31/2015 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
21 Loss Development Projection of Recent Years $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Millions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development Proj 2015 Proj 20
22 Projection of Recent Years Based on BF Method $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Millions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development Proj 2015 Proj 21
23 Sample Ultimate Loss and Reserve Summary Hypothetical Client Development of Undiscounted Unpaid Loss & ALAE Selected Case Indicated Accident Ultimate Paid Loss & ALAE IBNR Unpaid Year Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reserves Reserves Reserves 2007 $10,530,802 $10,530,802 $0 $0 $ ,650,319 9,566,616 14,170 69,534 83, ,416,531 10,627,500 17, , , ,855,939 11,192, ,880 1,385,633 1,663, ,176,011 7,185,818 1,144,545 1,845,649 2,990, ,396,963 9,261, ,088 3,395,165 4,135, ,901,419 3,803, ,482 2,412,486 3,097, ,229,633 2,535, ,103 4,233,480 4,694, ,874,821 4,042,315 2,820,659 6,011,848 8,832,507 Total $95,032,440 $68,745,687 $6,161,586 $20,125,167 $26,286,753 22
24 Sample Claim Count Summary Hypothetical Client Summary of Claim Counts Accident Closed Open Reported IBNR Ultimate Year Claims Claims Claims Claims Claims , , , , , , , , ,035 Total 6,893 1,110 8, ,069 23
25 Case Reserve Changes Scenario 1 Scenario 1: Consistent adjustment to a large set of claims across all years Example Case reserves didn t account for or consistently understated several components of the final costs. Now they are better reflections of the final cost It s expected that IBNR will now be lower relative to the case reserves. What if the actuary has it at the same level or higher? Data to review: Average case reserves = Total case reserves / Total O/S claim count in this year s report and last year s report If the case reserve strengthening was significant, this average will be significantly higher Incurred development factors or just the factor for the latest year if the actuary agrees that there was strengthening, then it should be lower 24
26 Case Reserve Strengthening $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
27 Case Reserve Changes Scenario 1 (cont d) Actuarial Concern is that the strengthening masks the real change in experience Possible Resolutions BEST Provide data before and after the case reserve adjustment, actuary creates indications based on both data sets Adjustment to historical incurred loss development factors More reliance on paid indications 26
28 Case Reserve Changes Scenario 2 Scenario 2: There was a review of the large open claims in older years that lead to several case reserves being adjusted higher. Claims staff (or the TPA) indicates that there s a higher degree of confidence in the case reserves now. In the actuarial report, the IBNR is now higher but we thought it would be lower. Harder to challenge than Scenario 1 27
29 Case Reserve Changes Scenario 2 (Cont d) Actuarial Concerns The strengthening sounds like normal loss development isn t the case reserve always a best estimate based on current information? Several claims in more recent years could have the same development as they get older. Should the development factors be higher? 2 ways to look at a significant change in the level of case reserves: Average Case Reserve Optimistic View Pessimistic View Significantly Higher than Prior Analysis Significantly Lower than Prior Analysis Case reserves are overstated we need less IBNR Claims are less serious than we thought we need less IBNR Claims are more serious than we thought we need more IBNR Case reserves must be understated we need more IBNR 28
30 Case Reserve Changes Scenario 2 (Cont d) Data to Review and/or Provide Same two items Average case reserves = Total case reserves / Total O/S claim count across years If this is significantly higher, it supports that the case reserve increase was atypical. Incurred development factors or just the factor for the latest year Are they significantly higher than in the prior analysis? Important additional item provide qualitative information on the claims and the uniqueness of the case reserve adjustment for those claims Possible Resolutions Adjustment to give less weight to the years affected by the strengthening More reliance on paid indications 29
31 Effective Loss Control Example Several loss control initiatives have been effective with significant reductions in the number of claims incurred. The actuary continues to give significant weight to older years experience in the projection of the recent years. 30
32 Effective Loss Control Illustration $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development
33 Effective Loss Control Projection $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development Proj 2015 Proj 32
34 Effective Loss Control Projection with the BF Method $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Months of Development Proj 2015 Proj 33
35 Claim Count Effective Loss Control Actuarial concern: The little claims have been eliminated but the more serious claims are left. There will be higher development. Accident Year Before Loss Control Average Initial Reserve Average Ultimate Total Initial Reserve Total Ultimate Claim Count Accident Year After Loss Control Average Initial Reserve Average Ultimate Total Initial Reserve Total Ultimate 1, ,000 1, , ,000 5, , ,000 11, ,000 1, ,000 10, ,000 10,000 3,100 21,000 27, ,600 11,700 LDF = 1.29 LDF = 1.77 Loss Amounts are in $000 s 34
36 Effective Loss Control Data to review or request: Average unpaid per O/S claim (Increase in paid) divided by (the decrease in case reserves) It s a one year approximation of the unpaid to case ratio Trend assumption in the BF method Trend implied by actual experience Actual experience has a downward trend, but BF method probably assumes a positive trend Potential resolutions Slightly more weight to loss development methods instead of BF methods Movement on the trend to reflect the favorable experience Enhanced analysis Primary layer and excess layer Lost time and medical only 35
37 Settlement Example Concerted effort to settle claims earlier in their development. It seems like the actuary s report is not reducing the reserve enough to reflect how few claims there are now. Actuarial Concern: Less serious claims are the ones that get settled. The remaining claims are serious and will have higher development. 36
38 Settlement Data to review: Closed Claim Count divided by Reported Claim Count by year compared to the year at the same age in last year s report AY 2015 has 75% closed at 12/31/2015 and AY 2014 had 60% closed at 12/31/2014 demonstrates settlement efforts were effective Average unpaid (case + IBNR) per O/S claim Possible resolutions: Less reliance on methods based exclusively on paid losses Use of methods that are based directly on case reserves or open claim counts 37
39 Thank You for Your Time and Attention Tim Mosler Commitment Beyond Numbers 38
Ohio Bureau of Workers Compensation Actuarial Committee
Ohio Bureau of Workers Compensation Actuarial Committee Private Employer (PA) Rate Recommendations to be Effective July 1, 2012 Bob Miccolis, FCAS, MAAA Dave Heppen, FCAS, MAAA Deloitte Consulting LLP
More informationAttachment C. Bickmore. Self- Insured Workers' Compensation Program Feasibility Study
Attachment C Bickmore Wednesday, May 21, 2014 Mr. David Wilson City of West Hollywood 8300 Santa Monica Blvd. West Hollywood, CA 90069 Re: Self- Insured Workers' Compensation Program Feasibility Study
More information374 Meridian Parke Lane, Suite C Greenwood, IN Phone: (317) Fax: (309)
374 Meridian Parke Lane, Suite C Greenwood, IN 46142 Phone: (317) 889-5760 Fax: (309) 807-2301 John E. Wade, ACAS, MAAA JWade@PinnacleActuaries.com October 15, 2009 Eric Lloyd Manager Department of Financial
More informationCalifornia Joint Powers Insurance Authority
An Actuarial Analysis of the Self-Insurance Program as of June 30, 2018 October 26, 2018 Michael L. DeMattei, FCAS, MAAA Jonathan B. Winn, FCAS, MAAA Table of Contents INTRODUCTION... 1 Purpose of Report...
More informationBasic Reserving: Estimating the Liability for Unpaid Claims
Basic Reserving: Estimating the Liability for Unpaid Claims September 15, 2014 Derek Freihaut, FCAS, MAAA John Wade, ACAS, MAAA Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. Loss Reserve What is a loss reserve? Amount
More informationActuarial Review of the Self-Insured Liability Program
Actuarial Review of the Self-Insured Liability Program Outstanding Liabilities as of June 30, 2013 and June 30, 2014 Forecast for Program Years 2013-14 and 2014-15 Presented to Mendocino County December
More informationAs Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (German Field Marshal from the 18 th century) noted, no plan survives contact with the enemy.
As Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (German Field Marshal from the 18 th century) noted, no plan survives contact with the enemy. In P&C actuarial speak, the equivalent is no reserving method survives
More informationPatrik. I really like the Cape Cod method. The math is simple and you don t have to think too hard.
Opening Thoughts I really like the Cape Cod method. The math is simple and you don t have to think too hard. Outline I. Reinsurance Loss Reserving Problems Problem 1: Claim report lags to reinsurers are
More informationActuarial Review of the Self-Insured Liability & Property Program
Actuarial Review of the Self-Insured Liability & Property Program Outstanding Liabilities as of June 30, 2017 Forecast for Program Year 2017-18 Presented to Santa Clara County Schools Insurance Group March
More informationArticle from: Health Section News. October 2004 Issue No. 48
Article from: Health Section News October 2004 Issue No. 48 Read. Think. Write. The Statement of Actuarial Opinion for the Health Annual Statement By Thomas D. Snook and Robert H. Dobson There s more to
More informationINTRODUCTION TO EXPERIENCE RATING Reinsurance Boot Camp Dawn Happ, Senior Vice President Willis Re
INTRODUCTION TO EXPERIENCE RATING 2013 Reinsurance Boot Camp Dawn Happ, Senior Vice President Willis Re Agenda Basic experience rating methodology Credibility weighting with exposure rate Diagnostics:
More informationStructured Tools to Help Organize One s Thinking When Performing or Reviewing a Reserve Analysis
Structured Tools to Help Organize One s Thinking When Performing or Reviewing a Reserve Analysis Jennifer Cheslawski Balester Deloitte Consulting LLP September 17, 2013 Gerry Kirschner AIG Agenda Learning
More informationA New Approach for Determining Claim Expense Reserves in Workers Compensation
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-26 Finance Department 1997 A New Approach for Determining Claim Expense Reserves in Workers
More informationAGRIP. Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense - The six questions you always wanted to ask. Presented by: Willis Towers Watson October 3, 2016
AGRIP Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense - The six questions you always wanted to ask Presented by: Willis Towers Watson October 3, 2016 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Agenda 1. What
More informationIASB Educational Session Non-Life Claims Liability
IASB Educational Session Non-Life Claims Liability Presented by the January 19, 2005 Sam Gutterman and Martin White Agenda Background The claims process Components of claims liability and basic approach
More informationUniversity of California, Los Angeles Bruin Actuarial Society Information Session. Property & Casualty Actuarial Careers
University of California, Los Angeles Bruin Actuarial Society Information Session Property & Casualty Actuarial Careers November 14, 2017 Adam Adam Hirsch, Hirsch, FCAS, FCAS, MAAA MAAA Oliver Wyman Oliver
More informationAllocation, Allocation, Allocation: Where are your location now?
Allocation, Allocation, Allocation: Where are your location now? Xiaoxuan(Sherwin) Li, FCAS, FIA, CCRA CAE Fall Meeting 2015 London 1 CONTENTS Why we Need Allocation? Allocation of IBNR Allocation of Reinsurance
More informationCENTRAL OHIO RISK MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (CORMA) ACTUARIAL REPORT ON UNPAID LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2017
CENTRAL OHIO RISK MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (CORMA) ACTUARIAL REPORT ON UNPAID LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2017 October 25, 2017 October 25, 2017 Sent Via Email Ms. Angel Mumma Director
More informationExam-Style Questions Relevant to the New Casualty Actuarial Society Exam 5B G. Stolyarov II, ARe, AIS Spring 2011
Exam-Style Questions Relevant to the New CAS Exam 5B - G. Stolyarov II 1 Exam-Style Questions Relevant to the New Casualty Actuarial Society Exam 5B G. Stolyarov II, ARe, AIS Spring 2011 Published under
More informationTHE COMIC-CON OF RISK FINANCING
THE COMIC-CON OF RISK FINANCING RIF006 Speakers: Barbara Benson, VP Risk Solution, Willis Towers Watson Scott Silitsky, VP Risk Management, thyssenkrupp Elevator Corporation Learning Objectives At the
More informationA GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING, COMMUNICATING, AND INFLUENCING ACTUARIAL RESULTS
A GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING, COMMUNICATING, AND INFLUENCING ACTUARIAL RESULTS FEBRUARY 9, 2017 Jennifer Price, FCAS, MAAA Amanda Marsh, FCAS, MAAA 2017 Atlanta RIMS Educational Conference Introduction What
More informationFlorida Birth-Related Neurological Injury Compensation Association (NICA) Unpaid Loss and Defense Costs
Review of the Florida Birth-Related Neurological Injury Compensation Association (NICA) Unpaid Loss and Defense Costs December 31, 2016 David Altmaier, Insurance Commissioner Table of Contents Part 1:
More informationEVEREST RE GROUP, LTD LOSS DEVELOPMENT TRIANGLES
2017 Loss Development Triangle Cautionary Language This report is for informational purposes only. It is current as of December 31, 2017. Everest Re Group, Ltd. ( Everest, we, us, or the Company ) is under
More informationAnalysing Expenses: Should General Insurance Actuaries Get Excited?
Analysing Expenses: Should General Insurance Actuaries Get Excited? Tim Lane, Christa Marjoribanks, Sylvia Wong & Craig Price Tim Lane, Christa Marjoribanks, Sylvia Wong and Craig Price The Institute will
More informationWorkers Compensation Game Changers. Timothy C. Mosler John E. Wade
Workers Compensation Game Changers Timothy C. Mosler John E. Wade October 20, 2016 About Presenters Timothy C. Mosler, FCAS, MAAA Senior Consulting Actuary Atlanta, Georgia Pinnacle Actuarial Resources,
More informationFebruary 11, Review of Alberta Automobile Insurance Experience. as of June 30, 2004
February 11, 2005 Review of Alberta Automobile Insurance Experience as of June 30, 2004 Contents 1. Introduction and Executive Summary...1 Data and Reliances...2 Limitations...3 2. Summary of Findings...4
More informationTotal Cost of Risk: The Captive Focus
Total Cost of Risk: The Captive Focus Hugh Rosenbaum, Retired Principal, Towers Watson Jim Blinn, Executive Editor of RIMS Benchmark Survey and EVP of Advisen Ltd. Joel Chansky, Principal, Milliman James
More information2012 Health Care Workers Compensation Barometer
Aon Risk Solutions 2012 Health Care Workers Compensation Barometer Actuarial Analysis September 2012 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Empower Results 2012 Health Care Workers Compensation Barometer
More informationLoss Reserving 201 It's More than Numbers
Loss Reserving 201 It's More than Numbers Derek W. Freihaut September 17, 2015 Agenda Background/Loss Reserving 101 Key Considerations Claims Handling Reinsurance Underwriting Rates External Influences
More information2015 Statutory Combined Annual Statement Schedule P Disclosure
2015 Statutory Combined Annual Statement Schedule P Disclosure This disclosure provides supplemental facts and methodologies intended to enhance understanding of Schedule P reserve data. It provides additional
More informationWorkers compensation: what about frequency?
z Workers compensation: what about frequency? Moderator: Michael Dolan, FCAS, MAAA Presenters: Arthur Cohen, ACAS, MAAA Ian Sterling, FCAS, MAAA CAS Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar 15-16 September 2011 Antitrust
More informationBoard Finance Committee. November 15, 2017
Board Finance Committee November 15, 2017 Table of Contents 1. FY17 Audited Financials GRP Presentation 2. Workers Compensation - Program Update 3. Travel Report Superintendent/BOT 4. 2018-2019 Budget
More informationAnalysis of Liabilities Of the South Carolina Second Injury Fund. Including
Analysis of Liabilities Of the South Carolina Second Injury Fund Including Analysis of Current Liabilities Analysis of Future Liabilities, and Future Assessment Activity April 30, 2007 Prepared by Martin
More informationAccounting Update: ASU Charles Lenz, Perr & Knight Sean Nakamura, Accuity LLP Gordon Tom, KMH LLP
Accounting Update: ASU 2015-09 Charles Lenz, Perr & Knight Sean Nakamura, Accuity LLP Gordon Tom, KMH LLP Agenda Introduction Existing Guidance What s Changing Applicability & Effective Date Examples Implementation
More informationEstimation and Application of Ranges of Reasonable Estimates. Charles L. McClenahan, FCAS, ASA, MAAA
Estimation and Application of Ranges of Reasonable Estimates Charles L. McClenahan, FCAS, ASA, MAAA 213 Estimation and Application of Ranges of Reasonable Estimates Charles L. McClenahan INTRODUCTION Until
More informationBasic Track I CLRS September 2009 Chicago, IL
Basic Track I 2009 CLRS September 2009 Chicago, IL Introduction to Loss 2 Reserving CAS Statement of Principles Definitions Principles Considerations Basic Reserving Techniques Paid Loss Development Method
More information2018 Ratemaking Formula Report
Prepared for: Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund 2018 Ratemaking Formula Report Andrew Rapoport FCAS, MAAA March 21, 2018 Paragon Strategic Solutions Inc. 1 Agenda 1. What s New? 2. Overall Indications
More informationIt is the actuary s responsibility to ensure the accuracy of the unpaid claims and loss ratio analysis exhibit and accompanying electronic filing.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE UNPAID CLAIMS AND LOSS RATIO ANALYSIS EXHIBIT The Unpaid Claims and Loss Ratio Analysis Exhibits (see Appendix II) are constructed to allow the presentation and collection of industry
More information*Special* Executive Committee Meeting Teleconference. October 16, am 1 pm
*Special* Executive Committee Meeting Teleconference October 16, 2017 11 am 1 pm Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street, Suite 700 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 San Andreas Conference Room 7 th Floor *Per
More informationMPL INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE: What s the Latest? Chad C. Karls, FCAS, MAAA Principal & Consulting Actuary
MPL INSURANCE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE: What s the Latest? Chad C. Karls, FCAS, MAAA Principal & Consulting Actuary Agenda The Current Competitive Environment Loss Cost Components Claim Frequency Indemnity
More informationThe Honorable Teresa D. Miller, Pennsylvania Insurance Commissioner. John R. Pedrick, FCAS, MAAA, Vice President Actuarial Services
To: From: The Honorable Teresa D. Miller, Pennsylvania Insurance Commissioner John R. Pedrick, FCAS, MAAA, Vice President Actuarial Services Date: Subject: Workers Compensation Loss Cost Filing April 1,
More informationReady to Switch from Guaranteed-Cost to Loss-Sensitive? 5 Considerations for Your Insurance Program
Ready to Switch from Guaranteed-Cost to Loss-Sensitive? 5 Considerations for Your Insurance Program January 2018 Lockton Companies Fixed pricing is convenient. Small businesses can benefit from an insurance
More informationState of Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Financial Services Commission
State of Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Actuarial Peer Review and Analysis of the Ratemaking Processes of the National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. January 21, 2010 January 21, 2010
More informationFarmers Insurance Group of Companies Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies. Public Members of Governing Committee State Compensation Insurance Fund
Meeting Minutes Date Time Location Staff Contact August 3, 2016 9:30 AM WCIRB California David M. Bellusci 1221 Broadway, Suite 900 Oakland, CA 1221 Broadway, Suite 900 Oakland, CA 94612 415.777.0777 Fax
More informationThe Effect of Changing Exposure Levels on Calendar Year Loss Trends
The Effect of Changing Exposure Levels on Calendar Year Loss Trends Chris Styrsky, FCAS, MAAA Abstract This purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact that changing exposure levels have on calendar
More informationQUARTERLY VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS RISK SHARING POOLS. as at September 30, Ontario Alberta Grid and Alberta Non Grid New Brunswick and Nova Scotia
QUARTERLY VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS RISK SHARING POOLS as at September 30, 2018 Ontario Alberta Grid and Alberta NonGrid New Brunswick and Nova Scotia FA Actuarial 1/16/2019 Should you require any further information,
More informationAn Enhanced On-Level Approach to Calculating Expected Loss Costs
An Enhanced On-Level Approach to Calculating Expected s Marc B. Pearl, FCAS, MAAA Jeremy Smith, FCAS, MAAA, CERA, CPCU Abstract. Virtually every loss reserve analysis where loss and exposure or premium
More informationDeveloping a reserve range, from theory to practice. CAS Spring Meeting 22 May 2013 Vancouver, British Columbia
Developing a reserve range, from theory to practice CAS Spring Meeting 22 May 2013 Vancouver, British Columbia Disclaimer The views expressed by presenter(s) are not necessarily those of Ernst & Young
More informationCVS CAREMARK INDEMNITY LTD. NOTES TO THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS DECEMBER 31, 2017 AND 2016 (expressed in United States dollars) 1. Operations CVS Carema
NOTES TO THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1. Operations CVS Caremark Indemnity Ltd. ("The Company"), formerly known as Twinsurance Limited, was incorporated in Bermuda on March 27, 1980, and is a wholly owned
More informationAn Alternative to the ACA for Small Groups. Level Funding: Introduction. Joe Slater, FSA, MAAA
Level Funding: An Alternative to the ACA for Small Groups Joe Slater, FSA, MAAA Introduction Under the Affordable Care Act (i.e., ACA), groups with 50 or less employees will eventually be subject to the
More informationReinsurance Loss Reserving Patrik, G. S. pp
Section Description Reinsurance Loss Reserving 1 Reinsurance Loss Reserving Problems 2 Components of a Reinsurer s Loss Reserve 3 Steps in Reinsurance Loss Reserving Methodology 4 Methods for Short, Medium
More informationQuarterly Call for First Quarter of Calendar Year 2013 (CA-QT-1Q13) Due Date: May 7, 2013
February 1, 2013 525 Market Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2767 Voice 415.778.7008 www.wcirbonline.org escad@wcirbonline.org David M. Bellusci Executive Vice President, COO & Chief Actuary To:
More informationRevised Educational Note. Premium Liabilities. Committee on Property and Casualty Insurance Financial Reporting. March 2015.
Revised Educational Note Premium Liabilities Committee on Property and Casualty Insurance Financial Reporting March 2015 Document 215017 Ce document est disponible en français 2015 Canadian Institute of
More informationGuidelines for loss reserves. in non-life insurance. Version from August 2006 Approved by the SAA Committee from 1 September 2006.
Guidelines for loss reserves in non-life insurance Version from August 2006 Approved by the SAA Committee from 1 September 2006 Seite 1 1. Object These Guidelines for loss reserves in non-life insurance
More informationWCIRB Report on June 30, 2017 Insurer Experience
September 13, 217 WCIRB Report on June 3, 217 Insurer Experience 1 WCIRB Report on June 3, 217 Insurer Experience WCIRB California Research and Analysis WCIRB Report on June 3, 217 Insurer Experience The
More informationWCIRB Report on December 31, 2013 Insurer Experience Released: April 4, 2014
Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California WCIRB Report on December 31, 2013 Insurer Experience Released: April 4, 2014 WCIRB California 525 Market Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2767
More informationNCOIL Spring Meeting. Putting A Premium on Health: The Affordable Care Act & Underwriting
NCOIL Spring Meeting Putting A Premium on Health: The Affordable Care Act & Underwriting Joyce E. Bohl, MAAA, ASA Member, Federal Health Committee March 8, 2014 Agenda Overview of rating Individual and
More informationUS P&C Industry Statutory Reserve Study
US P&C Industry Statutory Reserve Study Based on NAIC data through March 31, 2017 August 7, 2017 Prepared by Disclaimer This study provides directional evidence about the aggregate adequacy of industry
More informationMORTGAGE INSURANCE: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? (PART 1)
MORTGAGE INSURANCE: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? (PART 1) David McLaughry, FCAS, MAAA CAS Special Interest Seminar, Chicago, IL October 1, 2013 ANTI-TRUST NOTICE The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to
More informationQuarterly Call for Fourth Quarter of Calendar Year 2012 (CA-QT-4Q12) Due Date: February 14, 2013
December 10, 2012 525 Market Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2767 Voice 415.778.7008 www.wcirbonline.org escad@wcirbonline.org David M. Bellusci Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary To: Primary
More informationRe: Informational Bulletin: Notice to Actuaries Submitting Actuarial Summaries and Studies for Private Self-Insured Employers
March 30, 2017 Lyn Asio Booz, Chief Office of Self Insurance Plans Department of Industrial Relations State of California Sent via email Re: Informational Bulletin: Notice to Actuaries Submitting Actuarial
More informationWorkers Compensation Temporary Total Disability Indemnity Benefit Duration 2011 Update
April 2012 by Barry Lipton, John Robertson, and Katy Porter Workers Compensation Temporary Total Disability Indemnity Benefit Duration 2011 Update KEY FINDINGS This brief updates our previous paper 1 published
More informationWCIRB Report on September 30, 2017 Insurer Experience
December 19, 217 WCIRB Report on September 3, 217 Insurer Experience 1 WCIRB Report on September 3, 217 Insurer Experience WCIRB California Research and Analysis WCIRB Report on September 3, 217 Insurer
More informationSolutions to the New STAM Sample Questions
Solutions to the New STAM Sample Questions 2018 Howard C. Mahler For STAM, the SOA revised their file of Sample Questions for Exam C. They deleted questions that are no longer on the syllabus of STAM.
More informationQuarterly Call for Third Quarter of Calendar Year 2014 (CA-QT-3Q14) Due Date: October 31, 2014
September 8, 2014 525 Market Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2767 Voice 415.777.0777 www.wcirb.com escad@wcirb.com David M. Bellusci Executive Vice President, COO & Chief Actuary To: Primary
More informationQuarterly Call for Third Quarter of Calendar Year 2015 (CA-QT-3Q15) Due Date: October 29, 2015
September 8, 2015 1221 Broadway, Suite 900 Oakland, CA 94612 Voice 415.777.0777 www.wcirb.com escad@wcirb.com David M. Bellusci Executive Vice President, COO & Chief Actuary To: Primary Contacts for WCIRB
More informationThe Role of ERM in Reinsurance Decisions
The Role of ERM in Reinsurance Decisions Abbe S. Bensimon, FCAS, MAAA ERM Symposium Chicago, March 29, 2007 1 Agenda A Different Framework for Reinsurance Decision-Making An ERM Approach for Reinsurance
More informationThe old Exam 6 Second Edition G. Stolyarov II,
The Actuary s Free Study GUIDE for The old Exam 6 Second Edition G. Stolyarov II, ASA, ACAS, MAAA, CPCU, ARe, ARC, API, AIS, AIE, AIAF First Edition Published in July-October 2010 Second Edition Published
More informationGeneral Insurance Introduction to Ratemaking & Reserving Exam
Learn Today. Lead Tomorrow. ACTEX Study Manual for General Insurance Introduction to Ratemaking & Reserving Exam Spring 2018 Edition Ke Min, ACIA, ASA, CERA ACTEX Study Manual for General Insurance Introduction
More informationActuarial Expert Testimony
Actuarial Expert Testimony National Council on Compensation Insurance Rate Filing #17-19101 Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Public Rate Hearing October 18, 2017 Prepared by: Stephen A. Alexander,
More informationTennessee Workers Compensation Voluntary Loss Cost and Assigned Risk Rate Filing Proposed to be Effective March 1, 2018
Tennessee Workers Compensation Voluntary Loss Cost and Assigned Risk Rate Filing Proposed to be Effective March 1, 2018 Presented to Tennessee Advisory Council on Workers Compensation on September 6, 2017
More informationClark. Outside of a few technical sections, this is a very process-oriented paper. Practice problems are key!
Opening Thoughts Outside of a few technical sections, this is a very process-oriented paper. Practice problems are key! Outline I. Introduction Objectives in creating a formal model of loss reserving:
More informationReinsurance Symposium 2016
Reinsurance Symposium 2016 MAY 10 12, 2016 GEN RE HOME OFFICE, STAMFORD, CT A Berkshire Hathaway Company Reinsurance Symposium 2016 MAY 10 12, 2016 GEN RE HOME OFFICE, STAMFORD, CT Developing a Treaty
More informationCOMMITTEE ON PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE FINANCIAL REPORTING EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1, 1994
FINAL PROVISION FOR ADVERSE DEVIATIONS PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE COMPANIES COMMITTEE ON PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE FINANCIAL REPORTING FINAL VERSION AS APPROVED BY COUNCIL NOVEMBER 1993 EFFECTIVE
More informationBOARD OF COMMISSIONERS OF PUBLIC UTILITIES
Newfoundland & Labrador BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS OF PUBLIC UTILITIES IN THE MATTER OF AN APPLICATION BY FACILITY ASSOCIATION FOR APPROVAL OF REVISED RATES FOR ITS NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PUBLIC VEHICLES
More informationSTATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF INSURANCE 300 Capitol Mall, 17 th Floor Sacramento, CA PROPOSED DECISION
STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF INSURANCE 300 Capitol Mall, 17 th Floor Sacramento, CA 95814 PROPOSED DECISION JULY 1, 2015 WORKERS COMPENSATION CLAIMS COST BENCHMARK AND PURE PREMIUM RATES FILE NUMBER
More informationTraditional Approach with a New Twist. Medical IBNR; Introduction. Joshua W. Axene, ASA, FCA, MAAA
Medical IBNR; Traditional Approach with a New Twist Joshua W. Axene, ASA, FCA, MAAA Introduction Medical claims reserving has remained relatively unchanged for decades. The traditional approach to calculating
More informationSession 111 PD, GAAP Long Durational Contracts and Short Durational Contracts. Moderator/Presenter: Lo Linda Chow, FSA, MAAA
Session 111 PD, GAAP Long Durational Contracts and Short Durational Contracts Moderator/Presenter: Lo Linda Chow, FSA, MAAA Presenters: Rowen B. Bell, FSA, MAAA Robert A. Hanes, FSA, MAAA SOA Antitrust
More informationUniversity Of California Retiree Health Benefit Program. Actuarial Valuation as of July 1, 2009
University Of California Retiree Health Benefit Program Actuarial Valuation as of July 1, 2009 Table of Contents Table of Contents Section Description Page Actuarial Valuation Certification... ii I. Executive
More information2011 CLRS - MPLI Reserving 101 9/15/2011
Medical Professional Liability Reserving 101 Common Reserving Techniques and Considerations 2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar September 15, 2011 Kevin M. Dyke, FCAS, MAAA Michigan Office of Financial
More informationThe Beat Goes On, and On, and On and On. Thoughts on Reserving for Long-Tailed Lines
The Beat Goes On, and On, and On and On. Thoughts on Reserving for Long-Tailed Lines Pat Teufel, FCAS, MAAA Past President, Casualty Actuarial Society Agenda for this Session 1. Introduction 2. Overview
More informationVolume: 3, Actuarial Reports Page No.: 22, Oct report 4, Feb report
CAC (MPI) CAC (MPI) 1-1 CAC (MPI) 1-1 Volume: 3, Actuarial Reports Page No.: 22, Oct report 4, Feb report Topic: Sub Topic: Issue: Actuarial Reports Ensuring the reasonableness of the Actuarial Reports
More informationKevin D. Burns, FCAS, MAAA The Hanover Insurance Group
Alternative Methods Kevin D. Burns, FCAS, MAAA The Hanover Insurance Group September 16, 2013 The opinions expressed in this paper (presentation) are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect
More informationConsiderations in Implementing the FASB Short-Duration Contract Disclosures
A P U B L I C P O L I C Y W H I T E P A P E R Considerations in Implementing the FASB Short-Duration Contract Disclosures December 2016 Developed by the Short-Duration Contracts Work Group of the Financial
More informationCitizens Loss Reserving. Brian Donovan, FCAS, MAAA March 29, 2017
Citizens Loss Reserving Brian Donovan, FCAS, MAAA March 29, 2017 Loss Reserving Purpose of Loss Reserving Citizens current loss reserving trends How these trends impact to Citizens financials 2 What are
More informationReserve Estimates: May 26, Raunak Jha
Reserve Estimates: The Blended Way May 26, 2011 Raunak Jha Deloitte Consulting India Pvt. Ltd Agenda Robust Reserving Process Popular Methods Blended Methods Bornhuetter- Ferguson Method The Cape Cod approach
More informationTime for a Captive Refresh?
Time for a Captive Refresh? 2018 World Captive Forum January 31 February 2, 2018 Fort Lauderdale, FL #WorldCaptiveForum With You Today Karin Landry, CEBS, ACI, CLTC Managing Partner Spring Consulting Group
More information2019 Ratemaking Formula Report
Prepared for: Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Andrew Rapoport FCAS, MAAA Jared Brown, ACAS March 19, 2019 Paragon Strategic Solutions Inc. 1 Agenda 1. What s New? 2. Overall Indications 3. Ratemaking
More information2017 CAS ANNUAL MEETING. Impact and Implications of 2015 and 2016 Ontario Auto Insurance Reforms. May 23, 2017
2017 CAS ANNUAL MEETING Impact and Implications of 2015 and 2016 Ontario Auto Insurance Reforms May 23, 2017 AGENDA 1. History of Ontario Auto 2. Claim Issues leading to 2016 AB Reforms 3. 2015 and 2016
More informationReinsurance Risk Transfer Case Studies
Reinsurance Risk Transfer Case Studies presented at the 2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar By Dale F. Ogden, ACAS, MAAA www.usactuary.com Antitrust Notice The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to
More informationLONG TERM CARE 2010 GENERAL LIABILITY AND PROFESSIONAL LIABILITY Actuarial Analysis August 2010
[ LONG TERM CARE 2010 GENERAL LIABILITY AND PROFESSIONAL LIABILITY Actuarial Analysis August 2010 2010LONGTERMCARE ii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.......................... 1 Purpose......................................
More informationCasualty Loss Reserve Seminar Roll-forward Reserve Estimates September 15, 2014
www.pwc.com 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Roll-forward Reserve Estimates Mechanics Underlying Roll-forward Reserve Estimates 2 Agenda Section 1 Roll-forward Example Section 2 Potential roll-forward
More informationSetting Loss Reserves What You Don t Know Can Hurt You
Setting Loss Reserves What You Don t Know Can Hurt You Robert L. Johnson, Marsh Paul J. Struzzieri, Milliman, Inc. Magali Welch, Johnson Lambert & Co. Monday, March 8 th 3:10 4:30 PM Components of Loss
More information2. APPROACHES TO "ADJUSTING & OTHER" RESERVING
"Adjusting & Other" Reserves According to the "Loss- Activity Method" Paul B. Deemer, FCAS, MAAA Abstract This paper presents an additional method for calculation "adjusting & other" claim handling expenses.
More informationReinsurance Risk Transfer. Disclaimer. Evaluating Risk Transfer 8/22/2010
Reinsurance Risk Transfer Case Studies presented at the 2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar By Dale F. Ogden, ACAS, MAAA www.usactuary.com Disclaimer The examples contained in this presentation may (or
More informationNegative Frequency Trends? 2013 CAS Seminar on Reinsurance June 6-7,2013. Jill Cecchini FCAS, MAAA Vice President SCOR Reinsurance
Negative Frequency Trends? 2013 CAS Seminar on Reinsurance June 6-7,2013 Jill Cecchini FCAS, MAAA Vice President SCOR Reinsurance Antitrust Notice The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to adhering
More informationWhere to save your money for the long term. How to make the most of your 401(k) and HSA
Where to save your money for the long term How to make the most of your 401(k) and GETTING STARTED Two great choices for long-term saving Having access to both a workplace retirement savings plan like
More informationIntroduction to Casualty Actuarial Science
Introduction to Casualty Actuarial Science Executive Director Email: ken@theinfiniteactuary.com 1 Casualty Actuarial Science Two major areas are measuring 1. Written Premium Risk Pricing 2. Earned Premium
More informationAon 2018 Long Term Care Liability Benchmark Analysis
Aon 2018 Long Term Care Liability Benchmark Analysis April 2, 2018 LTC.Benchmark@aon.com Prepared by Aon Risk Services Aon Global Risk Consulting Actuarial and Analytics Practice Welcome! Thank you for
More informationThe following definitions apply in Articles 1 through 13 of these regulations:
Title 8. Industrial Relations Division 1. Department of Industrial Relations Chapter 8. Office of the Director Subchapter 2. Administration of Self-Insurance Plans Article 1. Definitions Text proposed
More information