THE COMIC-CON OF RISK FINANCING
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1 THE COMIC-CON OF RISK FINANCING RIF006 Speakers: Barbara Benson, VP Risk Solution, Willis Towers Watson Scott Silitsky, VP Risk Management, thyssenkrupp Elevator Corporation
2 Learning Objectives At the end of this session, you will: Learning Objective 1 Incorporate risk finance terms and tools into your skill set Learning Objective 2 Understand how to use risk financing assessment tools Learning Objective 3 Practice effective communication of risk finance concepts
3 Agenda Introduction Basic Loss Development Loss Forecasting Accrual Analysis Risk Financing
4 Basic Loss Development Purpose: To use the growth patterns of historical losses to predict ultimate losses on policy years that are still open and developing Sources of Loss Development Factors Industry-provided Insurance carriers Rating bureaus Independent consultants\ Actuaries Organization-specific
5 Loss Development Casualty Coverage s Workers compensation Automobile liability General liability Products liability Loss Development Triangles Types of triangles Incurred loss development Paid loss development Frequency loss development Per occurrence retention Limited Unlimited
6 Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) Claims IBNR caused by Delay between occurrence and reporting of claim Actual amount for which claim will settle is unknown Indeterminate amount of time between a claims first report and when all activity on that claim ceases
7 Comic-Con Enterprises Loss Run Summary Valuation Date: 12/31/2009 Valuation Date: 12/31/2013 Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims 1/1-12/31/09 352, , /1-12/31/09 715, , /1-12/31/10 554, , Valuation Date: 12/31/2010 1/1-12/31/11 1,344,098 1,300, Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims 1/1-12/31/12 980, , /1-12/31/09 459, , /1-12/31/13 816, , /1-12/31/10 276, , Valuation Date: 12/31/2014 Valuation Date: 12/31/2011 Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims 1/1-12/31/09 718, , /1-12/31/09 591, , /1-12/31/10 564, , /1-12/31/10 393, , /1-12/31/11 1,488,670 1,356, /1-12/31/11 592, , /1-12/31/12 1,322,208 1,254, /1-12/31/13 1,104, , Valuation Date: 12/31/2012 1/1-12/31/14 402, , Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims 1/1-12/31/09 659, , Valuation Date: 12/31/2015 1/1-12/31/10 500, , Policy Period Incurred Paid # Claims 1/1-12/31/11 1,053, , /1-12/31/09 718, , /1-12/31/12 644, , /1-12/31/10 570, , /1-12/31/11 1,588,127 1,485, /1-12/31/12 1,549,531 1,301, /1-12/31/13 1,087,525 1,001, /1-12/31/14 578, , /1-12/31/15 402, ,145 99
8 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Incurred Loss Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/09 352, , , , , , ,434 1/1-12/31/10 276, , , , , ,145 1/1-12/31/11 592,449 1,053,915 1,344,098 1,488,670 1,588,127 1/1-12/31/12 644, ,544 1,322,208 1,549,531 1/1-12/31/13 816,337 1,104,286 1,087,525 1/1-12/31/14 402, ,368 1/1-12/31/15 402,966
9 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Incurred Loss Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/09 352, , , , , , ,434 1/1-12/31/10 276, , , , , ,145 1/1-12/31/11 592,449 1,053,915 1,344,098 1,488,670 1,588,127 1/1-12/31/12 644, ,544 1,322,208 1,549,531 1/1-12/31/13 816,337 1,104,286 1,087,525 1/1-12/31/14 402, ,368 1/1-12/31/15 402,966 Incremental Growth Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ month incurred losses = 12 month incurred losses 578, ,087 = = 1.438
10 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Incurred Loss Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/09 352, , , , , , ,434 1/1-12/31/10 276, , , , , ,145 1/1-12/31/11 592,449 1,053,915 1,344,098 1,488,670 1,588,127 1/1-12/31/12 644, ,544 1,322,208 1,549,531 1/1-12/31/13 816,337 1,104,286 1,087,525 1/1-12/31/14 402, ,368 1/1-12/31/15 402,966 Incremental Growth Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ EMFI Incremental Avg Average all policy years
11 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Incurred Loss Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/09 352, , , , , , ,434 1/1-12/31/10 276, , , , , ,145 1/1-12/31/11 592,449 1,053,915 1,344,098 1,488,670 1,588,127 1/1-12/31/12 644, ,544 1,322,208 1,549,531 1/1-12/31/13 816,337 1,104,286 1,087,525 1/1-12/31/14 402, ,368 1/1-12/31/15 402,966 Incremental Growth Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ EMFI Incremental Avg Adjusted Inc. Avg Remove any irregular averages
12 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Incurred Loss Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/09 352, , , , , , ,434 1/1-12/31/10 276, , , , , ,145 1/1-12/31/11 592,449 1,053,915 1,344,098 1,488,670 1,588,127 1/1-12/31/12 644, ,544 1,322,208 1,549,531 1/1-12/31/13 816,337 1,104,286 1,087,525 1/1-12/31/14 402, ,368 1/1-12/31/15 402,966 Incremental Growth Triangle Policy Elapsed Months from Inception Year /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ /1-12/31/ EMFI Incremental Avg Adjusted Inc. Avg Cumulative Average Multiply each consecutive incremental average by the previous cumulative average
13 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC EMFI Incremental Avg Adjusted Inc. Avg Cumulative Average Multiply each consecutive incremental average by the previous cumulative average Step 1: 12 month cumulative average X 24 month incremental average X = Step 2: 24 month cumulative average X 36 month incremental average X = Step 3: 36 month cumulative average X 48 month incremental average X = Step 4: 48 month cumulative average X 60 month incremental average X = Step 5: 60 month cumulative average X 72 month incremental average X = 2.184
14 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC EMFI Incremental Avg Adjusted Inc. Avg Cumulative Average EMFI Development Factor Step 1: 84 month cumulative average / 12 month cumulative average / = Step 2: 84 month cumulative average / 24 month cumulative average / = Step 3: 84 month cumulative average / 36 month cumulative average / = Step 4: 84 month cumulative average / 48 month cumulative average / = Step 5: 84 month cumulative average / 60 month cumulative average / = Step 6: 84 month cumulative average / 72 month cumulative average / = 1.000
15 Comic-Con Enterprises Incurred Loss Triangulation-WC Development Factor Discovery Schedule Cumulative 45.8% 64.5% 83.5% 94.0% 99.3% 100.0% 100.0% Incremental 45.8% 18.7% 19.0% 10.5% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0% Discovery Schedule = 1 / development factor
16 Discovery and Payout Patterns General/product liability Slowest patterns Longest tail because of investigation, litigation, and time lag between report and occurrence date Workers compensation Payout increases steadily over time Benefits are statutorily defined Duration of injury and amount of medical treatment unknown Automobile liability Relatively quick patterns Relatively no lengthy litigation
17 Loss Analyses Forecasting and Ultimate Liability Analysis Ultimate liability projections Adhere to accounting requirements regarding contingent liabilities Loss forecasting Internal budgeting Marketing purposes
18 WC Remaining Liability Projections Policy Year Comic-Con Enterprises (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (a x b) (c - d) Loss Incurred Losses Development Paid 12/31/15 Factor Ultimate Losses 12/31/15 Liabilities 1/1-12/31/09 718, , ,434-1/1-12/31/10 570, , ,879 24,266 1/1-12/31/11 1,588, ,598,815 1,485, ,601 1/1-12/31/12 1,549, ,648,625 1,301, ,367 1/1-12/31/13 1,087, ,302,747 1,001, ,513 1/1-12/31/14 578, , , ,714 1/1-12/31/15 402, , , ,755 Total 6,495,096 7,615,927 5,620,711 1,995,216
19 WC Loss Forecast Policy Year Comic-Con Enterprises (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (a x b) (c x d) (e / f) Incurred Inflated Inflated Ult. Ultimate Inflation Ultimate Number of Loss Per 12/31/15 LDF Losses 7% Losses Employees Employee 1/1-12/31/09 718, , ,153, ,648 1/1-12/31/10 570, , , ,070 1/1-12/31/11 1,588, ,598, ,242, ,492 1/1-12/31/12 1,549, ,648, ,161, ,275 1/1-12/31/13 1,087, ,302, ,595, ,637 1/1-12/31/14 578, , ,027,274 1,000 1,027 1/1-12/31/15 402, , , ,046 1/1-12/31/15 1,443, ,443, ,603 Assumptions: 1. Client specific loss development factors 2. No losses in excess of the per occurrence limit 3, Workers' compensation inflation rate = 7% per year 4. Forecast includes all policy years
20 Excluded WC Loss Forecast Comic-Con Enterprises Policy Year (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (a x b) (c x d) (e / f) Incurred Inflated Inflated Ult. Ultimate Inflation Ultimate Number of Loss Per 12/31/15 LDF Losses 7% Losses Employees Employee 1/1-12/31/09 718, , ,153, ,648 1/1-12/31/10 570, , , ,070 1/1-12/31/11 1,588, ,598, ,242, ,492 1/1-12/31/12 1,549, ,648, ,161, ,275 1/1-12/31/13 1,087, ,302, ,595, ,637 1/1-12/31/14 578, , ,027,274 1,000 1,027 1/1-12/31/15 402, , , ,046 1/1-12/31/15 1,116, ,116, ,240 Assumptions: 1. Client specific loss development factors 2. No losses in excess of the per occurrence limit 3, Workers' compensation inflation rate = 7% per year 4. Forecast excludes policy years 1/1-12/31/09 through 1/1-12/31/12
21 Risk Financing Determining the most cost-effective way to pay or fund for losses Risk Financing Continuum Guaranteed Cost Large Deductible Qualified Self- Insurance Captive Risk Transfer Risk Retention
22 Factors Influencing Design of Risk Financing Programs Expected losses Market conditions Corporate philosophy Risk control commitment Financial Position Geographical locations Loss payout patterns Effective tax rate Corporate ownership Cash flow comparisons
23 Terms Related to Cash Flow Comparisons Cash flow Using the net present value of alternative market quote to determine the most cost-effective program Investment income Fund losses at a discount, additional money will be added as interest is earned Varies by program and payout Once decision tool to select the ideal program Tax implications Need to consider when the losses and premium can be deducted from taxable income Various programs are treated differently Should involve corporate tax department
24 1/1-12/31/16 WC Guaranteed Cost Cash Flow Comic-Con Enterprises (a) (b (c) (d) (e) (f) (b x 34%) (b - c) (d x f) Month Premium Cash Flow Tax Effect After-Tax Cash Flow Discount Factor Discounted After Tax Cash Flow 1 125,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, , ,000 42,500 82, ,587 Total 1,500, , , ,424 Assumptions: 1. Premium is paid in 12 monthly installments at the first of the month 2. Losses are discounted at a 4% discount rate 3. The effective tax rate is 34%
25 1/1-12/31/16 WC Self Insurance Cash Flow Comic-Con Enterprises Month Cumulative Payout Schedule Incremental Payout Schedule Paid Losss Letter of Credit Fee Excess Premium Claims Handling Admin. Expenses Fees & Assess. Total Cash Flow After-Tax Cash Flow Discount Factor Discounted After-Tax Cash Flow % 0.09% 1,004 5,000 8, ,000 2,500 21,888 14, , % 1.09% 12,164 8, ,106 13, , % 1.17% 13,057 8, ,043 14, , % 1.36% 15,178 8, ,270 16, , % 1.63% 18,191 8, ,434 18, , % 1.81% 20,200 8,333 1,010 29,543 19, , % 2.00% 22,320 8,333 1,116 31,769 20, , % 2.17% 24,217 8,333 1,211 33,761 22, , % 2.53% 28,235 8,333 1,412 37,980 25, , % 2.72% 30,355 8,333 1,518 40,206 26, , % 2.90% 32,364 8,333 1,618 42,316 27, , % 3.17% 35,377 8,333 1,769 45,479 30, ,956 Subtotal 22.64% 252,662 5, ,000 12,633 5,000 2, , , , % 25.09% 280,004 3,868 14, , , , % 31.56% 352,210 2,614 17, , , , % 4.02% 44,863 1,036 2,243 48,142 31, , % 6.98% 77, ,895 82,626 54, , % 7.29% 81, ,068 85,910 56, , % 2.42% 27, ,350 28,479 18, ,614 Total % 1,116,000 13, ,000 55,800 5,000 2,500 1,293, , ,871
26 Sensitivity Analysis How do optimistic and pessimistic loss projections alter the net present value decision of the various program alternatives? $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,505,963 Net Cash Flow $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400, , , ,424 $787,871 $428,825 Self Insurance Guaranteed Cost $200,000 $0 Optimistic Expected Pessimistic Loss Scenario
27 In Conclusion Key Points Loss development Loss analysis Cash flow comparisons Questions
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