Schedule P Schedule P- Summary. Schedule P- Part 1: Current Valuation. Description Org By Net/Gross Data Fields direct & Current

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1 Schedule P- Summary Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part5 Part 6 Part 7 Description Org By Net/Gross Data Fields Current premiums: CY Valuation loss & exp: AY and ceded Incurred Losses Paid Losses Bulk Reserves Claim Counts Premium Development Loss Sensitive Contracts y-axis: Exposure Yr PY Net Direct + - Ceded Schedule P- Part 1: Current Valuation and ceded 7A primary contracts 7B reins. contracts only Premiums Earned Paid & Unpaid Loss & Loss Expense (DCC & AAO separately) Salvage & Subrogation Received & Anticipated Incurred Losses including DCC (PD+CASE+BULK+IBNR) Cumulative Paid Losses including DCC Bulk & IBNR Reserves on Losses & DCC Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 1 Cumulative Claims Closed with Loss Pmt Claims Outstanding Cumulative Reported Claims Cumulative Premiums Earned, Section 2 Cumulative Premiums Earned, Ceded Section 1 Summary by Line of Business Section 2 Incurred Losses including DCC Section 3 Bulk & IBNR Reserves on Losses & DCC Section 4 Earned Premium Section 5 Bulk Premium Reserves (for audit & retro adj) Sections 6&7 Reinsurance Commissions (only on 7B) Premiums Earned Loss and Expense Payments Loss Payments DCC AAO Salvage and Net Subrogation Total Ceded (Cols 1-2) Ceded Ceded Ceded Received Net Paid 1. Prior xxxx xxxx xxxx 2. Year n-9 3. Year n Year n 12. Totals Columns # of Clms Reported CY EPs are not shown for the prior row CY EPs are frozen once entered Additional premiums (like from retros) are assigned to the current CY Columns 4 and 5 are of salvage and subrogation Column 10 is for information only Loss and LAE are cumulative (by AY) for all rows other than the prior yrs row. Prior Years Row: shows payments made or received in the current CY only Additional losses (like from retros) are assigned to the appropriate AY Losses Unpaid DCC Unpaid AAO Unpaid 23 Case Basis Bulk + IBNR Case Basis Bulk + IBNR Ceded Ceded Ceded Ceded Ceded 13 Salvage and Subrogation Anticipated 24 Total Net Losses and Expenses Unpaid 25 # of Clms Outstanding Total Losses and Loss Expenses Incurred Ceded Net The ratios in columns are gross of non-tabular and of tabular discount. The average company ratio in column 31 is used for the company adjustment to the WP risk charge in the RBC formula. Loss and Loss Expense Percentage (Incurred/Premiums Earned) Ceded Net Nontabular Discount Loss Loss Expense A change in a company s pooling % may distort the Sched P devt. If it changes, they should restate past figures in the triangle using the new participation %. 34 Inter-Company Pooling Participation Percentage Net Balance Sheet Reserves After Discount Losses Loss Expenses Unpaid Unpaid Must complete for all primary LOBs. Not required for non-proportional reinsurance

2 Schedule P- Part 1: Current Valuation (continued) Revised Method of Adjusting and Other Expense Distribution DCC expenses can be assigned to AYs, but AAO are assigned by a formula: Step 1: Using a sample of claims from a given CY, calculate the average AAO for each of the following: (1) claims reported (2) claims open at EOY, but not reported in the year (3) claims closed with payment (4) claims closed without payment Assume that all claims reported during the year remain outstanding at year-end. Cost of reporting (relative AAO for clms reported) (relative AAO for clms open at EOY) Step 2: Convert the average AAO costs to relativities ("units of expense") Step 3: Calculate the claim counts by AY for each of 4 categories (1) claims reported use Part 5, Section 3 (2) claims outstanding use Part 5, Section 2 (3) claims closed with payment use Part 5, Section 1 (4) closed w/out pmt reported outstanding closed with payment The Schedule P triangles show cumulative claim counts, but incremental claim counts are needed for distributing AAO payments. The incremental claim counts are the difference between the cumulative counts at the current valuation date and those in the preceding column. For the prior years row, the entry in the last column is already incremental, so no calculation is necessary. Step 4: Calculate the weighted claims for each AY (Sum-product of claim counts and relative AAO) Step 5: Calculate the percentage of total weighted claim counts attributable to each AY (incl prior yrs row) Step 6: Multiply the percentage for each AY by the AAO paid in the most recent CY Step 7: For AYs before the most recent, add this to the AAO value from last year's Schedule P. Schedule P- Part 2: Incurred Losses The entries for Part 2 are copied from the previous year's Schedule P Part 2 except for the prior years row and the most recent evaluation date. The entries for the most recent evaluation date are calculated from the data in Part 1: Part 2, Col 10 Part 1 Col Total Paid Losses & LAE Paid AAO + Total Unpaid Loss + LAE Unpaid AAO Schedule P- Part 3: Paid Losses The entries for Part 3 are copied from the previous year's Schedule P Part 3 except for the prior years row and the most recent evaluation date. The entries for the most recent evaluation date (the right-most column including the prior years row) are calculated from the data in Part 1 Part 1 Col D&A Loss Ceded Loss + D&A DCC Ceded DCC Then add this result to the cumulative paid losses at 2 nd oldest eval date Schedule P- Part 4: Bulk & IBNR Reserves Schedule P- Part 5: Claim Counts For the individual AYs: Part 5, Section 1, column 10 Part 3, column 11 For the prior years row: Part 5, Section 1, column 10 Part 3, column 11 The Part 5, Section 1 prior years row shows incremental closings in each CY, not the cumulative total. When allocating AAO among companies in a pool, use the same method used to allocate losses. The same is true for other proportional reinsurance. Schedule P uses claim count info for direct and, not ceded. Since retroactive reins does not immediately affect unassigned surplus under statut accting, it is not coded as ceded reins on Sched P. To calculate the prior years row for the current AS, look at the prior AS: - For the prior years row and the oldest AY row, subtract paid losses (from LY s Part3) to get the reserves - Add the reserves for the prior years row and the oldest AY row (from last year's AS) to get the reserves in the prior row for the current AS - Add this to the current AS's prior years row paid losses (from TY s Part 3) to get the current AS's prior row for Part 2 Part 2 is a retrospective test of loss reserve adequacy If reserves are adequate, incurred losses along each AY should not develop or. To calculate the prior years row for the current AS, look at the prior AS: - Take the top 2 rows from the prior AS (the prior years row and the oldest AY) - Subtract the values in the 2 nd col (2 nd oldest evaluation date) from every column - Eliminate the 1 st column (oldest evaluation date) - Add the 2 rows together (prior years row and oldest AY) - This is the prior years row for the current AS Includes reserves for: re-opened claims incurred but not reported claims aggregate reserves on newly reported devt on case reserves of reported claims claims without specific case reserves For the individual AYs: cumulative reported claims cumulative paid claims + outstanding claims This relationship is not true for the prior years row. The Part 5, Section 3 prior years row shows incremental claims reported in each CY, not the cumulative total.

3 Schedule P- Part 6: Premium Development The accounting rules for Sched P, Part 6: 1. The EPs include a. collected premiums b. billed but uncollected prems c. earned but unbilled prems d. accrued retrospective prems 2. The prior years row shows incremental CY changes to the EP for the prior exposure yrs. 3. Column 11 shows the distribution of the current CY s EPs to all exposure yrs (incl the prior yrs row). The entries are incremental. 4. The final row shows the Part 1 CY EPs. Schedule P- Part 7: Loss Sensitive Contracts Part 7 is optional Companies will only complete it if they are claiming a reduction of the RBC reserving or WP risk charge for loss sensitive contracts. Purposes of Part 7: to determine the percentage of premium and reserves that are from loss sensitive contracts to determine the premium sensitivity in these contracts 7A primary, 7B - reinsurance Exposure yr prem is important for: lines with exposure audits lines with retro adjustments lines with accounting lags in booking premium Part 6 shows exposure yr earned prem for "direct and " and ceded. Net triangles ceded Since in Parts 2-4, triangles have losses, be sure to convert premiums to a basis when making comparisons. 3 types of loss sensitive contracts: premium on retro rated primary contract depends on losses sliding scale reinsurance commission depends on LR PH divs sometimes depend on the PH's LR don't qualify as loss sensitive because they're optional A reconciliation of the EP figures to those in Schedule P, Part1 is shown on the bottom row of Part 6. Calculate calendar year EP (bottom row) as: EPn columnn column n CY n prior (both excluding the "prior" row) If the changes for most of the exposure years is >0, then that implies EBNR was initially understated conservatively estimated 6 Criteria for Classification of a Contract as Loss Sensitive: an increase in losses results in an increase in payment sensitivity must be at least 75% on primary business and 50% on reinsurance, before policy limits are applied the swing (max prem / min prem) must be at least 20% for primary and 10% for reinsurance the max payment must be at least 15% higher than the expected payment for primary, 7.5% for reinsurance the loss sensitive payments must be either premiums or reinsurance commissions (not policyholder dividends) losses & loss pmts must flow through the income stmt Definition of premium sensitivity the change in billed premium to the change in reported losses: [7.4 (EP) 7.5 (accrued prem)] / [7.2 (IL) 7.3 (IBNR & reserves)] Comparison of Schedule P Parts 1-6 to Part 7: Parts 1-6 Part 7 Show experience on the company s entire Shows experience on loss-sensitive book of business contracts only Required Optional Show data by line of business Sections 2 and subsequent are for all lines of business combined Losses & claim counts are shown by AY; Losses & premiums are shown by Premiums are shown by exposure year PY 3 Reasons WP is not always equal to the estimate of ultimate premium: Some insureds underestimate payroll or sales projections to lower the deposit prem. Insurers may accept understated exposure ests to keep the deposit prem competitive. Companies may book a low WP to defer state premium taxes or federal income tax. The purpose of Sched P, Part 6 is to allow the computation of exposure-accident year Risk-Based Capital Principles: If the premium is sufficiently responsive to losses, the policy is loss sensitive. Contingent commissions do not make a policy loss sensitive. (b/c swing is narrow & it is usually onesided pays for good business, no penalty for bad) Sliding scale reinsurance commissions (& similar) make a contract sensitive. P/H dividends do not make a policy loss sensitive. (b/c they are optional, not contractual) As reserves mature, premium sensitivity declines, since more losses are censored by the loss limit and more premiums are capped by the maximum prem. Schedule P: Triangles Using Schedule P data, you can derive the following: Triangle of Reported Losses Part 2 Part 4 Triangle of Outstanding Case Reserves Part 2 Part 4 Part 3 Triangle of Net Loss Ratios Part 2 / Part 1 Net EP, or Part 2 / Part 6 Exp Yr EP Triangle of Total Claims Closed Part 5 Rpt'd Part 5 O/S When calculating the trends in paid claim costs (either per rpt'd or per closed w/ pmt) Calculate the age-to-age development for each AY by dividing the values at consecutive evaluation dates Then compare the diagonals this way, you are comparing the devt. for different AYs at the same age Avg Paid Claim Cost Avg Case Reserve Cumulative Paid Losses Part 3 Cumulative Clms Closed w/ Pmt Part 5, Sec 1 Outstanding Case Reserves Part Claims Outstanding Part 5, Sec 2 The trend in these avg claims can be compared to industry trends to identify deteriorating or improving books of business The trends in o/s case reserves are compared with the trends in average paid loss to determine if case reserves are strengthening or slipping. Avg Incurred Claim Cost (non frivolous) Cumulative Losses Reported Cum Claims Closed w Pmt Outstanding Claims Part 2 4 Part 5, Sec 1 + Part 5, Sec 2

4 Schedule P: Miscellaneous Data Type Audience Served PY used by underwriters and actuaries used for pricing & profitability studies AY used for loss reserving since AY losses are most homogeneous in age since the accident RY used by claims personnel claims dept. practices may vary by RY claims dept. efficiency is measured by RY CY complete at year-end used for accounting statements rely on non-ledger assets and liabilities that are estimated from PY, AY or RY aggregates may eliminate biases caused by consistent over or under estimation of non-ledger A&L Schedule P: Interrogatories Interrogatory 1 shows 10 years of extended loss and expense reserves for med- mal business, other liability and products liability. It is unclear how reserves should be assigned to years. Interrogatory 2 discloses whether the company has followed the revised NAIC definitions of DCC and AAO expenses. Interrogatory 3 relates to the distribution of AAO expense payments and reserves by year. Interrogatory 4 discloses loss reserve discounting and the difference between the Underwriting and Investment Exhibit and Schedule P. Earned Premium Incurred Losses Income Statement U/W & Investment Exh Schedule F CY CY Schedule T Insurance Expense Exh Schedule P, Part 1 CY AY Schedule P, Parts AY Schedule P, Part 6 EY - Schedule P, Part 7 PY PY Interrogatory 5 discloses the premiums in force for fidelity and surety business. Interrogatory 6 discloses whether claim counts are per claim or per claimant Interrogatory 7 discloses any significant events, coverage, retention or accounting changes which would affect analysis of the reserve adequacy. This includes, but is not limited to: 1. a change in the method of counting claims 2. intercompany pooling of only a portion of the business 3. changes in the intercompany pooling arrangement Schedule P: Statement of Actuarial Opinion Reasons for Inadequate Loss Reserves: 1. unforeseen future developments (ie. asbestos) 2. companies in financial distress may hide their weakness by reducing bulk reserves for long-tailed lines of business 3. companies writing long-tailed lines may value their reserves at a non-zero valuation rate Schedule P contains management s best estimate of the indicated reserves. The SAO does not contain the Appointed Actuary s estimate. Rather, it contains the Appointed Actuary s opinion on whether management s estimate is reasonable. The SAO must comment on the reasonableness of reserves for 6 items: 1. reserve for unpaid losses 2. reserve for unpaid loss adjustment expense 3. reserve for unpaid losses direct and (from Sched P, Part 1, col 13 and 15) 4. reserve for unpaid loss adjustment expense direct and (from Sched P, Part 1, col 17, 19 and 21) 5. extended loss and expense reserves (from Sched P, Interrog 1) 6. the page 3 write-in item reserve retroactive reinsurance reserve ceded or

5 What are the 3 principles governing the 1998 LAE definitions? Why might an insurer place less emphasis on AAO? How are attorney fees for declaratory judgment actions coded under the revised NAIC definitions of LAE? How are the loss reserves on Schedule P effected by retroactive reinsurance? How do claims commutations affect Schedule P? For which lines of business must Schedule P exhibits be segmented into occurrence and claims-made? Why? How is tail coverage reported on Schedule P? Schedule P is thought of as an AY exhibit, but the 1 st column is labeled years in which premiums were earned and losses were incurred. What does that mean? Name 3 ways the adequacy of Schedule P reserves is monitored. 3 Principles Governing the 1998 LAE Definitions: 1. The classification is by type of expense, regardless of whether the expense relates to specific claims. 2. The classification is uniform for all companies. 3. The new definitions divide expenses into 2 groups: DCC expenses which vary with the amount of loss AAO expenses which vary with the number of claims or expenses that do not vary with either the Less Emphasis on Adjusting and Other Reserves Because: 1. AAO reserve is relatively small and not subject to much uncertainty. 2. The AAO reserves are not included in the NAIC retrospective reserve adequacy test and there is no cross-check in the A.S. for these reserves. 3. Some companies dispute the need to hold AAO reserves. DJA legal fees are coded as adjusting and other (AAO) and not (defense and cost containment (DCC) so they do not affect the adverse loss development for IRIS tests 9 and 10. For statutory accounting, retroactive reinsurance increases total surplus, but it does not immediately affect unassigned surplus. There is no effect on the A.S. or schedule. The reinsurance is not coded as ceded business in Schedule P and loss reserves are not reduced. (Instead, the reinsurance recoverable is coded as a write-in contra-liability on the B.S.) Claims commutations affect both the reported and paid loss development patterns. Ideally, both the ceding and assuming carriers should restate their experience after a commutation. At the very least, if loss development patterns are affected, the effects should be disclosed in Question 7 of the Schedule P Interrogatories. Similar problems exist for primary companies when their reinsurers become insolvent. Loss reserves in the Schedule P triangles are of reinsurance recoverable. When reinsurance recoverable are written off, similar disclosure in Schedule P Interrogatory 7 is appropriate. Occurrence and claims-made business must be reported separately in Schedule P for the following lines of business: 1. medical malpractice 2. other liability 3. products liability This is to quantify the difference in adverse loss development between occurrence and claims-made business since Schedule P is used to determine the reserving risk (and WP risk) charge in the RBC formula. Though tail coverage is usually appended to claims-made policies, it is included with Schedule P occurrence exhibits. The statutory accounting for tail coverage depends on the duration of the tail: If the tail has an indefinite term (treated like occurrence coverage): premium is earned when the policy is issued a bulk loss reserve is established for estimated future losses all reserves are shown in Schedule P If the tail has a definite(limited) term (treated like claims-made coverage): premium is earned over the term UEPR is established on policy eff dt & amortized over the policy term case reserves are set up as the losses are reported bulk loss reserves are set up for development on known claims but only case reserves are shown on Schedule P The date when losses are incurred means the date the insurer incurs the obligation for the loss. This differs by type of policy: for occurrence policies the date the loss occurs for claims-made policies the date the loss is reported for tail coverage the date the policy is issued for fidelity and surety the date the loss is discovered The adequacy of Schedule P reserves is monitored in 3 ways: 1. A qualified Appointed Actuary must comment on the reasonableness of the company s reserves in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion. 2. Reserve adequacy tests are performed with the historical loss triangles. 3. State insurance departments perform periodic financial examinations.

SCHEDULE P: MEMORIZE ME!!!

SCHEDULE P: MEMORIZE ME!!! NOTE: This skips all the prior years row calculation stuff, since it is covered pretty well by TIA (and I m sure any other manual). What are the cross-checks performed by the