MAY 1-4, 2016 THE RITZ-CARLTON, DOVE MOUNTAIN, ARIZONA. A Berkshire Hathaway Company
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1 MAY 1-4, 2016 THE RITZ-CARLTON, DOVE MOUNTAIN, ARIZONA A Berkshire Hathaway Company
2 MAY 1-4, 2016 THE RITZ-CARLTON, DOVE MOUNTAIN, ARIZONA Spring Update Presented by Tad Montross May 2, 2016 Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 2
3 Agenda Interest Rates Trend Twisted Financial Theory Update Fourth Industrial Revolution Income Inequality Emerging Insurance Opportunities Disruption Underwriting Discipline Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 3
4 Interest Rates Year U.S. Treasury Rate (%) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 4
5 Negative Rates Government Bond Yields As of April 27, 2016 Negative Positive 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year Japan Switzerland Germany Belgium Netherlands France Sweden Denmark Italy Spain Norway U.K. U.S. New Zealand Australia Source: The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 5
6 Liquidity I am a little more concerned about the opposite: seeing interest rates rise faster than people expect. Liquidity has gotten worse and we have seen extreme volatility and distortions in several markets. Lower liquidity and higher volatility are here to stay. The Federal Reserve and foreign governments will not be there in the future. Jamie Dimon 2015 JPMorgan Annual Report Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 6
7 Trend Personal Auto BI Paid Claims Frequency # Paid Claims per 100 Earned Car Years BI Paid Claim Freq PD Paid Claims Frequency # Paid Claims per 100 Earned Car Years Source: IBNR Weekly #29, Vol. XXII PD Paid Claim Freq Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 7
8 Trend Personal Auto NPE ($, B) $40 $38 $36 $34 $32 $30 $28 $26 $24 $22 State Farm GAAP Premium and Profitability 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% Combined Ratio $ % NPE ($, B) Combined Ratio Source: IBNR Weekly #10, Vol. XXIII, Company Reports Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 8
9 Trend Personal Auto It has one-way glass for interrupted talking and texting while driving. Source: Wall Street Journal Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 9
10 Trend Personal Auto Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 10
11 Trend Commercial Auto ME WA OR NV CA ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI OH IN KY WV VT NY PA NJ VA NC NH MA RI CT DE MD AZ NM TX OK AR LA MS TN AL GA SC FL Legend *Recreational marijuana is legal Medical marijuana is legal AK N/A HI *Voters in Oregon, Alaska and Washington, D.C., approved legalizing recreational marijuana in November Source: Governing Magazine Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 11
12 Trend Commercial Auto: Prior Year Loss Development Industry Initial vs. Current Accident Year Loss Ratios 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Initial AY Loss Ratio - CAL Developed AY Loss Ratio - CAL Source: SNL Financial Schedule P U.S. Property and Casualty Combined Industry Aggregate Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 12
13 Trend Prescription Drug Trend Medical inflation has been benign Drug costs have doubled in the last 5 years One-third of branded drug prices increased 20% in 2015 Branded drugs overall increased 16% in 2015 Source: Express Scripts Drug Trend Report 2015 Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 13
14 Trend Tropical Storm Risk (TSR): Atlantic Hurricane 2016 Prediction 12 Named Storms 6 Hurricanes 2 category #3 and above 20% below the norm since % below the yr norm Source: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 14
15 Twisted Financial Theory Update Hedge Fund Update Greenlight Capital Re (GRLE) Third Point Re (TPRE) /2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 Last Price /14/2013 8/14/2014 8/14/2015 Last Price Pension Fund Update Ontario Teachers Pension to Sell ANV to AmTrust Float Strategies FOSON / Ironshore IPO China GoldJoy / Global Reinsurer? Source: Bloomberg, Insurance Insider, Intelligent Insurer Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 15
16 Twisted Financial Theory Update Free Forma Pro forma earnings for companies in the S&P 500 were 59% above GAAP reported earnings Pro forma earnings were 29% higher than the S&P adjusted operating earnings 30% S&P Pro Forma vs. Operating Earnings Difference 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bloomberg Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 16
17 Twisted Financial Theory Update Emerging Markets In China, fully $1.3 trillion of corporate loans, Or one-seventh of the total, are owed by companies whose profits don t cover their interest rate payments, A problem that could trigger bank losses equal to 7% of gross domestic product if the issue isn t addressed. Source: The Wall Street Journal Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 17
18 Twisted Financial Theory Update Crowded Trades Created by suppressed interest rates: $40 Trillion Credit $11 Trillion Deposits Wholesale funding dries up quickly Source: The Wall Street Journal Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 18
19 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Davos Economic Forum Theme 2016 The early 21 st century is witnessing a set of economic changes of historic importancecharacterized: By a much more ubiquitous and mobile Internet, smaller and more powerful sensors that have become cheaper, by artificial intelligence, and machine learning Source: Fortune Magazine Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 19
20 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Income Inequality We built a whole social infrastructure based on the concept of a job, and that concept does not work anymore. Globalization has destroyed many blue-collar jobs but technological change is now threatening the professions. The middle class is no longer immune. Alternative is for the U.S. government to provide a universal basic income (UBI) of $1,000 a month to every citizen. A basic income- welfare for the digital age Source: Financial Times Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 20
21 Emerging Insurance Opportunities Internet of Things You know the way that advertising turned out to be the native business model for the internet? I think that insurance is going to be the native business model for the Internet of Things. Tim O Reilly IBM Watson Machine learning Shared Economy Convergence of personal and commercial insurance Source: Solid Conference, May 22, 2014, Fireside Chat with Tim O'Reilly and Rod Smith Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 21
22 Emerging Insurance Opportunities Police Pull Over Driverless Car Source: The Telegraph, January 15, 2016 Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 22
23 Disruption Lemonade For insurance to provide true peace of mind you want to know that your insurer is both willing and able to pay your claims. Lemonade is the only insurer that doesn t make money by denying claims so no one is more willing than us. Source: Intelligent Insurer Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 23
24 Disruption NEXT 1. Less time & more competitive online apps Populate data / autofill application with 3 rd party data 2. Largest # of potential customers = # of SIC codes 3. Throughput of underwriting algorithms without human intervention 4. Ability to provide immediate bindable vs. indicative quote Source: IBNR Weekly #10, Vol. XXIII Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 24
25 Underwriting Discipline Total Value Creation 70 7% Compounding $ % Compounding Return on Investment % Compounding $ $ Years Source: IBNR Weekly #10, Vol. XXIII Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 25
26 We keep our promises, so you can keep yours. A Berkshire Hathaway Company Spring CEO Conference 2016 Spring Update May 2, 2016 Tad Montross 26
27 Thank You
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