MAY 7 10, 2017 MONTAGE PALMETTO BLUFF RESORT, BLUFFTON, SC. A Berkshire Hathaway Company

Transcription

1 MAY 7 10, 2017 MONTAGE PALMETTO BLUFF RESORT, BLUFFTON, SC A Berkshire Hathaway Company

2 MAY 7-10, 2017 MONTAGE PALMETTO BLUFF RESORT, BLUFFTON, SC Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

3 Agenda Meet Kara and the Gen Re Team Industry Underwriting Results Underwriting Challenges Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

4 Gen Re North America Property / Casualty Kara Raiguel CEO Bob Jones Regional and Specialty Companies Treaty Berto Sciolla Mutual Companies Treaty Martin Leitch National & Multinational Companies Treaty Chris Brock Casualty Facultative Patrick Carroll Property Facultative Carole Ferrero Underwriting / Claims Upendra Belhe Chief Data & Analytics Officer for P&C Vickie Seeger Underwriting Gary Vaughn Underwriting Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

5 Meet Upendra Belhe Gen Re's Chief Data and Analytics Officer for P&C Will lead the organization wide initiatives that leverage data to drive business opportunities, growth and efficiency. Chubb Insurance: SVP Global Strategic Analytics Chubb and Son: Chief Analytics and Technology Officer PricewaterhouseCoopers: A National Director of Information Analytics Practice Hartford Financial Group: Led the insurance analytics group University of Iowa: Ph.D. in Operations Research and has published in several international journals. Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

6 $US millions U.S. Property / Casualty Industry Calendar Year Underwriting Result $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 ($10,000) ($20,000) ($30,000) ($40,000) ($50,000) ($60,000) e 2015 * exclude the mortgage and financial guaranty segments. Source: A.M. Best Aggregates and Averages 2008, A.M. Best 2009 Financial Review, A.M. Best 2011 Review/Preview, SNL, iii for combined ratios. Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

7 U.S. Property / Casualty Underwriting Trends A.M. Best Combined Ratios Calendar Year Actual Estimates E 2017P Private Passenger Auto Homeowners and Farmowners Workers' Compensation Other and Products Liability Commercial Multi Peril Commercial Auto Medical Professional Liability Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

8 Industry Experience Calendar Year Development Reserve Change by CY in Millions of Dollars (Excluding AIG) Commercial Auto Liability (366) ,235 1,355 Other Liability Claims Made (675) (341) (562) (593) (761) (641) Other Liability Occurrence (1,586) (82) (1,153) (741) (485) 545 Private Passenger Auto (2,879) (2,730) (1,121) (410) 521 1,867 Workers Compensation (497) (304) (529) (945) (2,731) (3,734) Blue good guys, red bad guys. Source: SNL Financial Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

9 Industry Experience CAL Accident Year Development Reserve Change by AY in Millions of Dollars (Excludes AIG and Allianz Global) Commerical Auto Prior Year Development by Accident Year Accident Year CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 Prior ($44) ($34) ($87) 2007 ($20) ($14) ($9) 2008 ($28) ($32) ($5) 2009 ($16) ($23) ($23) 2010 $89 $14 ($34) 2011 $151 $164 $ $205 $259 $ $257 $475 $ $453 $ $572 TOTAL $594 $1,262 $1,359 Source: SNL Financial Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

10 State Farm Combined Ratio, Personal Auto Accident Year % Net Combined Ratio % 16% 14% 12% Market Share % Net Combined Ratio Market Share Source: SNL Financial Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

11 State Farm Combined Ratio, Commercial Auto Accident Year % Net Combined Ratio % 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% Market Share % Net Combined Ratio Market Share Source: SNL Financial Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

12 Industry Experience WC Accident Year Development Reserve Change by AY in Millions of Dollars (Ex. AIG & Allianz) Workers' Compensation Prior Year Development by Accident Year Accident Year CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 Prior $198 ($975) ($743) 2007 ($94) ($99) ($47) 2008 ($112) ($17) ($86) 2009 ($45) ($41) ($88) 2010 ($34) ($78) ($71) 2011 ($38) ($55) ($101) 2012 ($284) ($303) ($232) 2013 ($482) ($491) ($345) 2014 ($708) ($602) 2015 ($798) TOTAL ($892) ($2,767) ($3,114) Source: SNL Financial Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

13 A.M. Best Loss and LAE Reserve Adequacy By Commercial Line of Business Product Line Current Esitmated Reserve 12/15 ($B) Estimated Reserve 12/16 ($B) Workers Compensation Other and Products Liability Commercial Multi Peril Commercial Auto Liability Medical Professional Liability All Other Lines (Personal Lines, Reinsurance) Total Core Reserves Asbestos and Environmental Total Note: Includes statutory discount as a deficiency. Source: A.M. Best Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

14 SYMPTOMS Frequency and Severity Miles driven Workers Comp Auto Regulatory Risk Florida Workers Comp Westphal vs. City of St. Petersburg Distracted driving Expensive repairs Claims Creative Attorneys Assignment of benefits Superlawyers.com Model Risk RMS rolls out v.17 Right charge for terrorism with only scarce data Property Distribution Disruption Insuretech (Lemonade) Direct Websites (Homesite, Insureon) Payroll Providers (ADP, Paychex) Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

15 U.S. Catastrophe Loss Estimates $70 $60 $50 $USD billions $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Earthquake Hurricane/Tropical Storm Terrorism Non-Modeled Non-Modeled includes riot, utility service disruption, volcanic eruption, water damage, wildland fire, wind and thunderstorm, winter storm and workers compensation. Source: PCS Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

16 Trend Personal Auto # Paid Claims per 100 Earned Car Years BI Paid Claims Frequency Q4:00 Q4:01 Q4:02 Q4:03 Q4:04 Q4:05 Q4:06 Q4:07 Q4:08 Q4:09 Q4:10 Q4:11 Q4:12 Q4:13 Q4:14 Q4:15 Q4:16 BI Paid Claim Freq PD Paid Claims Frequency # Paid Claims per 100 Earned Car Years Q4:00 Q4:01 Q4:02 Q4:03 Q4:04 Q4:05 Q4:06 Q4:07 Q4:08 Q4:09 Q4:10 Q4:11 Q4:12 Q4:13 Q4:14 Q4:15 Q4:16 PD Paid Claim Freq Source: ISO Fast Track Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

17 Collison Claims: Frequency Trending Higher in 2010s 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% * Annual Change Linear (Annual Change) Source: ISO, iii Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

18 Average Repair Costs on the Rise Average Repair Cost Repairable Vehicles CCC National Industry CY09-CY16 $2,900 $2,861 $2,800 $2,700 $2,693 $2,757 $2,600 $2,500 $2,400 $2,399 $2,425 $2,497 $2,551 $2,597 $2,300 $2,200 $2, Source: CCC Information Services Inc. Avg Repair Cost ($) Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

19 Repair Costs Grow Fastest for Newer Vehicles Repairable Vehicles Collision & Liability Losses Average Total Cost of Repairs by Vehicle Age Group $4,000 $3,500 $3, % + 3.2% + 0.8% + 2.5% $2, % $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Current Yr 1-3 Yrs 4-6 Yrs 7 Yrs Plus Total Source: CCC Information Services Inc. CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

20 Impact of Unexpected Costs Combined Ratio YEAR 0 Loss Ratio = 67.5% Expense Ratio = 27.5% Combined Ratio = 95.0% Severity YEAR 1 Frequency 2% 4% 6% 2% 97.7% 99.1% 100.5% 4% 99.1% 100.5% 101.9% 6% 100.5% 101.9% 103.3% YEAR 2 Frequency 2% 4% 6% Severity 2% 100.6% 103.5% 106.4% 4% 103.5% 106.5% 109.5% 6% 106.4% 109.5% 112.7% Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

21 Underwriting Expenses Industry 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 26.2% 26.7% 27.5% 27.6% 27.6% 27.2% 26.7% 25.3% 26.4% 25.3% 25.8% 26.3% 27.2% 28.5% 28.2% 28.2% 28.1% 28.1% 27.9% 27.9% 27.7% 27.7% $550 $500 $450 23% 22% E $400 Expense Ratio (%) * Excludes Financial and Mortgage Guaranty for all years except 2016 Source: SNL, BLS Net Premium Written (in 2016 $B) Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

22 Underwriting Expenses CNA 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 26% 31.2% 30.7% 32.5% 35.3% 33.1% 30.7% 29.6% 32.2% 30.5% 30.6% 30.0% 30.0% 29.6% 33.5% 33.0% 31.7% 33.5% 32.2% 32.0% % 34.3% $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 Expense Ratio (%) Net Premium Written (in 2016 $M) Sources: SNL, BLS Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

23 Underwriting Expenses Liberty Mutual 34% $30,000 33% 32.4% $29,000 32% 31% 31.2% 31.4% 31.1% 30.5% $28,000 $27,000 30% 29.3% 29.8% 29.3% 28.9% 29.0% $26,000 29% 28% 27% 26.4% 26.3% 27.5% 28.5% 28.1% 27.5% 27.2% 26.9% 26.7% 28.2% 27.7% $25,000 $24,000 $23,000 26% $22,000 25% $21,000 24% $20,000 Expense Ratio (%) Net Premium Written (in 2016 $M) Sources: SNL, BLS Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

24 Underwriting Expenses USAA 20% $20,000 19% $18,000 18% 17.7% $16,000 17% $14,000 16% 15% 15.9% 15.4% 15.6% 15.8% 15.4% 15.5% 15.0% 15.1% 15.0% 14.3% $12,000 $10,000 14% 13% 13.6% 13.7% 13.6% 13.1% 13.2% 13.2% 12.6% 12.3% 12.6% $8,000 $6,000 12% 11.9% $4,000 11% $2,000 10% $0 Expense Ratio (%) Net Premium Written (in 2016 $M) Sources: SNL, BLS Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

25 Underwriting Expenses Another sign of a soft insurance market is the abusive behavior on the part of some brokers who enrich themselves at the expense of both their customers and underwriters. Cloaked in the mantra of customer best interest or treating customers fairly, they seek the cheapest price and broadest coverage at commission terms that by any measure are excessive. Forcing underwriters to succumb to the lowest common denominator is hardly in the customer s, or industry s best interest. These predatory behaviors are simply unsustainable from an underwriting perspective and will come back to haunt these brokers: there will be customer and regulator backlash, or worse. Remember, distribution can be disintermediated." Source: Company Reports Evan Greenberg (Chubb) Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

26 Underwriting Expenses "It is obvious to any objective observer that Lloyd's, the London market and the customer will be the ultimate losers as a result of the excessive clout being wielded by brokers," he said. Noonan said that the market had reached the point where rates will soon rise. "At that point the customer will be paying more, yet the intermediary will continue to receive higher fees," he said. "At that point there can be no doubt as to who is ultimately paying the costs of broker compensation. Whether this is fair treatment of customers will no longer be a theoretical debate. Noonan stressed that although the brokerage is agreed with the underwriters, all of the money in the system ultimately comes from insureds. "They are the only person paying into the system," he said. Source: Insurance Insider Ed Noonan (Validus) Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May

27 The Benefits of the Direct Relationship Traditional reinsurance provides capacity to assume volatility and preserve capital. In the direct relationship you are at the center of the decisions we make. If we can help you improve your gross underwriting results, our results will follow. If it's good for you, it's good for us. The alignment of interests is pure. Our only compensation is through sharing your risk and your results. We operate as an extension of your team - you get unfiltered access to our resources, whether it is: Traditional underwriting and claims Upendra & data analytics Actuaries/IT/ERM/Legal/etc. The nature of the direct relationship is unique and intimate. Whether you have been with us for 1 year or 80 years, we are committed to the business because when you win, we win! Spring CEO Conference Kara Raiguel May