Reinsurance Symposium 2016
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1 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 MAY 10 12, 2016 GEN RE HOME OFFICE, STAMFORD, CT A Berkshire Hathaway Company
2 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 MAY 10 12, 2016 GEN RE HOME OFFICE, STAMFORD, CT An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 2
3 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 3
4 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 4
5 Overview Purpose of the Umbrella Umbrella Has Three Main Purposes Provides Higher Limits for Large Single Losses Provides Limits Over Exhausted Aggregates Provides Coverage for Claims Not Covered in the Primary but Not Excluded in the Umbrella (Dropdown) Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 5
6 Coverage Can provide coverage over a wide variety of underlying liability policies: Commercial Umbrella Automobile General Liability Employer s Liability Miscellaneous Professional Liability (BI and/or PD) Liquor Liability Personal Umbrella Automobile Home or Farm Watercraft, Motorcycles, Recreational Vehicle; Motor Home Employer s Liability Business Pursuits Is a Stand Alone policy Varies in Limits, Coverage, Terms and Conditions Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 6
7 How Do Limits Apply? Commercial Umbrella $5 Million UMB $1 Million $10,000 CGL Auto EL SIR $500,000 Coverages Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 7
8 How Do Limits Apply? Personal Umbrella $5 Million UMB $300K CSL $1,000 Home Personal Auto Watercraft SIR Coverages Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 8
9 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 9
10 Marketplace Observations McKinsey Study Focus is companies up to 100 employees and $100k in premium 1/3 of P&C Market and Growing Currently around 100B dollars. Changing distribution strategies. A transformation is underway. Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 10
11 Marketplace Observations P&C Marketplace: Other Liability Occurrence Market Concentration in 2015 Top 5 write $11.0 billion (28%) Chubb Ltd (including Ace) $3.0 b AIG 2.4 b Zurich 2.0 b Travelers 1.9 b Liberty Mutual 1.8 b Top 25 write $26.2 billion (67%) 2015 Direct premiums Written $39.3 billion Source: SNL Marketshare for P&C Industry, Other Liability Occurrence NAIC LOB Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 11
12 Marketplace Observations P&C Marketplace: Other Liability Occurrence Premium Growth ( ) DPW Five-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate = 7.0% Calendar Year Simple Ratios $ $ billions $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $ $ Simple Loss & LAE Ratio Simple Expense Ratio Source: SNL Marketshare for P&C Industry, Other Liability Occurrence NAIC LOB Simple Loss & LAE Ratio = direct loss incurred plus direct defense and cost containment expense incurred as % of DPE Simple Expense Ratio = commission and brokerage expenses plus taxes, licenses and fees as a % DPW Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 12
13 Marketplace Observations Personal Umbrella More ownership, more comfort with the product More data-driven decisions (primary and excess) Return of large net writers to reinsurance market High net worth trend and increasing wealth accumulation New market entrants Product rounding Defensive vs. Pro-active product offering Umbrella penetration levels vary by company Monoline writers moving into Umbrella space Millionaires in the United States ,630, % ,990, % ,600, % ,400, % ,800, % ,700, % ,200,000 1 Spectrum Group 2013, 2 CNN Money 2014 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 13
14 Marketplace Observations Personal Umbrella Competitive Landscape Small Regional National High Net Worth E&S/Unsupported Standard Risks Standard Risks Dedicated Teams by Segment Dedicated Umbrella Underwriting Defensive Sell High Retentions Quote Standard Umbrella Limits Distressed/Higher Risk Business on all Risks Reinsurer s Product Long Tenured Customers Dip down To Affluent/Standard Comprehensive Underwriting Underpenetrated Net Writers/Little Reinsurance Excess Limits Agency Automation (PU.com, RLI) More Focus on Cross-Selling Umbrella Managed Through Auto or Home Automation/Data Challenges Penetrations Increasing Capacity $1,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000 $10,000,000 $25,000,000 Exception $1,000,000 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 Exception $1,000,000 $10,000,000 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 14
15 Marketplace Observations Commercial Umbrella Claims Trends Plaintiff Attorney Sophistication Medical inflation Increased / multiple surgeries Social Media in claims Exposure Trends Stronger economy increased exposure base Emerging Risks Pricing Trends Rate pressures Flat to slightly negative 10%-15% down large account Moderate rate on more volatile classes Contractors, CAL Cheating phase over? Competitive Trends Broadening / competitive middle market Standard writers expanding into E&S segment Rate correction or shedding of select segments Lower minimums on small segment Social Attitudes Texting Controlled substances Firearms Jury pool demographics Disruptive Innovators Small commercial looks a lot like personal lines Hamilton Next Insurance CoverWallet Lemonade Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 15
16 Marketplace Observations Commercial Auto Severity s Impact The Concern Auto severity is rising, larger losses reaching or breaching excess limits A systemic severity shift would significantly undermine pricing and reserve adequacy Impacted Areas CAL has had several bad accident years in a row Adverse CAL Development 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 Ongoing dialogue with clients Random or systemic? Frequency, severity or both? Trucking or all commercial auto? $ in Millions $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 -$1,500 -$2,000 $469 $735 $450 $385 $ $318 -$541 P&C Industry Data from SNL Schedule P Part 2 -$703 -$781 -$1,651 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 16
17 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Evolving Umbrella Exposures. Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 17
18 Evolving Umbrella Exposures Our Emerging Issues team is constantly monitoring new and developing exposures as they relate to the various lines of business. Below are some of the current topics on our radar as regards to Personal, Farm and Commercial Umbrella: Personal Umbrella Drones Rideshare/Uber Assisted Driving Innovations/Driverless Vehicles Predictive Modeling Hydrofracking Elderly Youthful Social Media/Bullying Social Host Liquor Firearms Teachers (corporal punishment) Distribution Direct/Agent/Walmart/Google 3D Printing Commercial Umbrella Predictive Modeling Hydrofracking Construction Defect Food Processing Data Breach Nanotechnology Concussions Imported Products Farm Cyber Attack 3D Printing Legalization of Marijuana Driverless Trucks Auto Severity Farm Umbrella Personal vs. Commercial/Agri Farms Pollution Hydrofracking Contamination tracking across the food chain Drones Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 18
19 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Evolving Umbrella Exposures. Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 19
20 Layers of Risk Casualty Characteristics of Layers Catastrophe $1M to $10M Working Excess $250K to $1M Frequency Up to $250K Infrequent, unforeseeable loss activity; can ruin a company s loss experience in a given year; limited statistical credibility Foreseeable, less frequent; statistical credibility is marginal; can ruin loss experience in a given year Law of large numbers, statistically credible, predictable, expected; often our clients strong area for underwriting and handling claims Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 20
21 Layers of Risk $5 Million Excess of $5 Million Layer Extremely leveraged capacity layer due to low penetration. Typically priced at minimum premiums, but exposed to the largest accounts and auto fleets. Volatility makes experience pricing difficult at best. Catastrophe $1M to $10M $4 Million Excess of $1 Million Layer More leveraged layer resulting in more volatile experience potential. Benefit from minimum premium redundancy, but also exposed to some larger accounts due to limit necessity. First Million Layer Most exposed to loss, but with the least amount of policy limits leverage resulting in more stable experience. Rate adequacy effected by limits pull. Underlying Layer Premium Exposed Premium Ratio First Million $ 1,439,000 $ 856,000, to 1 $4M xs $1M $ 482,000 $ 564,000, to 1 $5M xs $5M $ 18,750 $ 25,000, to 1 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 21
22 Leverage and Volatility The Reinsurance Cost Umbrella Limit Policy Count Limits Exposed $1,000, $ 599,000,000 $2,000, $ 226,000,000 $3,000, $ 135,000,000 $4,000, $ 140,000,000 $5,000, $ 295,000,000 $6,000,000 0 $ - $7,000,000 0 $ - $8,000,000 0 $ - $9,000,000 0 $ - $10,000,000 5 $ 50,000,000 Total 856 $ 1,445,000,000 Umbrella Book = $2,000,000 10/90 Quota Share Participation Expected Cost = Lost Margin Expected R/I Margin = $180,000 (10%) The Benefits Transfer $1.3 billion of policy limit exposure Inexpensive cost of.014% (Lost Margin / Transferred Limits) Per Policy Protection Automatic clash Guaranteed cost Volatility and leverage transferred Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 22
23 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Evolving Umbrella Risk Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 23
24 Gen Re Approach Managing Umbrella It s all about differentiating clients This allows us to Differentiate Pricing Matching price to exposure Differentiate Reserving Segmentation and metrics Differentiate Underwriting Proprietary underwriting tools Differentiated Marketing Not a take all comers marketing strategy Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 24
25 Differentiated Pricing Gen Re proprietary exposure-based pricing models Exposure Rating vs. Experience Rating Differentiate each company s portfolio based on: The unique profile of the exposures written Limits profile State and territory profile Client rates and minimum premiums Underlying loss ratio (CU) Automobile Liability vs. General Liability (CU) Distribution across ISO Prem / Ops, Products, and Automobile ILF Tables (CU) Automobile unit rates Use of credits / debits, minimum premiums, etc. Exposures at policy level Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 25
26 Differentiated Reserving Separate reserve views Commercial Umbrella Separate lead and excess Segment by business type (Avg. size of account, limit, Auto/ GL mix, Risk appetite) Personal Umbrella Separate supported vs. unsupported Quarterly review, annual study of experience by segment IBNR is reflective of different expected loss ratios and emergence patterns by segment Identification and review of individual accounts which fall outside the expected segment performance levels Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 26
27 Claims Analysis Commercial Umbrella Losses by Line Commercial Umbrella Claim Dollars: $8,536,143,321 Gross Umbrella Loss 17% Small Business Segment Umbrella Loss 12% 45% Auto Liability General Liability Product 48% 40% 38% Excludes National Accounts Main Street ; BOP Type; Minimal Auto Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 27
28 Claims Analysis Cause of Loss Non Auto Product Liability Faulty Design Discrimination Not Employee Aircraft Construction Defect Breach of Professional Duty Collapse EPLI Wrongful Termination Contamination/Poisoning Food Crush Slip and Fall Dog Bite Liquor Law Farm Animal EPLI Retaliation Assault Including Rape Chemical Exposure Falling Object Negligent Supervision Pollution Personal/Advertising Injury Internet Fall From Height Electric Injury/Shock Completed Ops Faulty Work Premises/Operations Other Pools and/or Drowning Fire/Combustion/Explosion Gunshot/Shooting/Firearms Sexual Molestation Mobile Equipment Personal/Advertising Injury Other Athletic Participant Product Liability Malfunction Misuse Watercraft Product Liability Other Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 28
29 Claims Analysis Gen Re Personal Umbrella Cause of Loss Study Personal Umbrella Claim Dollars: $260,238,712 87% 13% Auto Liability Homeowners Liability Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 29
30 Claims Analysis Gen Re Personal Umbrella Cause of Loss Study By Loss Type By Age 13.6% 70.7% 8.5% 5.7% 45.5% 17.3% 15.1% 23.7% DUI Other Permissive User UM/UIM Elderly (>70) No Description on File YO (<25) Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 30
31 Pricing Models A Personal Umbrella Example How do you make sure that your book is differentiated? The Data Assumptions vs. Actual Systems Do they allow you to tell your book s story? If not, how can you help overcome these issues? What are your objectives? Is it Entering new states / markets Target classes Pricing differentiation Defense vs. offensive product Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 31
32 Pricing Model Personal Umbrella Rating Model How Gen Re Evaluates Rates Profile of Company s Umbrella Business Rating Parameters Rates, Layering Factors and Minimum Premiums Gen Re Proprietary Rating Model Umbrella Rating Specific to Company Business Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 32
33 Your Data, Your Profile, Your Expected Results Gross Book or Individual Risk Level Risk ID State Zip Code Effective / Expiration Date PU Limit PU At Limits Premium PU Layered Premium PAL Limit CPL Limit WC / Rec. Vehicle Limit Primary Residence # Add l Residence # Rental Properties # Vehicles # Drivers (16 20) # Drivers (21 25) # Drivers (>75) UM/UIM # Motorcycles # Watercraft # Jet Ski # Rec. Vehicles Pools # Animals Business Pursuits # MVR Major # MVR Minor # MVR Clear Supported Unsupported Antique Autos Motor Homes Note: If Farm book, additional factors apply. Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 33
34 Your Data, Your Profile, Your Expected Results Gross Book or Individual Risk Level Named Insured Policy # State Zip Code Effective Date Expiration Date PU Limit Total PU Homeowners PAL Limit Premium Limit Watercraft Limit Rating Initial Territory Res Addl Res Elderly Rent Youthful Vehicles Driver Watercraft Dwg Driver (>70) Rec Vehicle Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Smith, Joe CT /1/2013 1/1/2014 1,000, , , Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 34
35 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study General Information Gross Premium $1.5M 4,300+ policies, seven states $5M Maximum Umbrella Limit 90/10 Quota Share Structure first million; 100/nil of remainder 30% cede commission State Profile Territory Profile Supported Underlying % of Umbrella Premium. Moderate 100% Metro 23% Non Metro 78% Auto 94% Home 100% Other 81% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 35
36 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Limits Profile At Limits Premium Layered Premium Policy Count $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $ 1,319,885 $ 1,400,750 3,771 $ 148,995 $ 92, $ 18,060 $ 14, $ 11,258 $ 6, $ 21,070 $ 4, $1,519,268 $1,519,168 4,324 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 36
37 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Percent of Umbrella Premium Written in Excess of Underlying Watercraft U/L Limit Auto Liability Homeowners Rec. Vehicle <$250,000 $250,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 0% 0% 0% 19% 0% 82% 78% 60% 17% 3% 38% 0% 1% 2% 1% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 37
38 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Percent of Policies with Quantity of Exposure Number Per Youthful Household Auto Operators UM / UIM 0 2% 80% 100% 1 26% 15% 0% 2 43% 4% 0% 3 22% 1% 0% 4 6% 0% 0% 5+ 2% 0% 0% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 38
39 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Weighted Average Profile Average Umbrella Limit Underlying CPL Underlying PAL Underlying Watercraft Client Gen Re Client to Gen Re 1,200, , , ,000 1,270,000-6% 420,000-7% 330,000-9% 400,000-15% Territory Non-Metro Territory Metro State Low State Moderate State High 78% 22% 100% 78% 0% 22% 0% 52% 92% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 39
40 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Weighted Average Profile Client Gen Re Client to Gen Re Residences Autos Youthful Operators Auto s UM/UIM Watercraft Rentals % % % % % % Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 40
41 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Exposure Rate Per Policy Rating Plan Rating Plan Rating Plan Exposure #1 #2 #3. Primary Residence Auto Non-Metro Auto Metro Youthful Operator UM/UIM MVR Surcharge Elderly Operator Pool (no diving board) Watercraft Recreation Vehicle Additional Residence Rental Unit Minimum Premium NA NA Inc. Inc. Inc. 35 Inc. Inc. Inc Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 41
42 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Results Company Expected Combined Reinsurance Combined Rating Plan #1 Rating Plan #2 Rating Plan #3 86.7% 97.5% 92.7% 106.1%?? Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 42
43 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Weighted Average Profile Client Gen Re Client to Gen Re Residences % Autos % 29% Youthful Operators % 92% Auto s UM/UIM % Watercraft % 24% Rentals % 15% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 43
44 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Results Company Expected Combined Reinsurance Combined Rating Plan #1 Rating Plan #2 Rating Plan #3 86.7% 97.5% 92.7% 106.1% 205.0% 267.0% Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 44
45 Pricing Model A Personal Umbrella Case Study Not Just The Model Other Considerations Underwriting process Risk appetite Application Company loss experience Shifts in exposure Enter new states IT capabilities Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 45
46 Overview of the Product Marketplace Observations Evolving Umbrella Risk Agenda Leverage and Volatility Differentiation Managing Umbrella Pricing and Reserving Underwriting and Marketing Claims Analysis Pricing Models Critical Success Factors Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 46
47 Critical Success Factors Umbrella Willingness and Ability to Absorb Loss Volatility Long-tail view Leverage and severity Coverage Increasing Exposures Policy Form Implications Emerging Issues Tools to Manage the Book Pricing metrics Exposure metrics Reserving Segmentation Strategic Growth Competitive and compelling Benchmarking abilities for targeted growth and price knowledge Maximize product sales bundling Ease of use Distribution Strategy Buyer Motivators. Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 47
48 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 Questions and Discussion Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 48
49 Reinsurance Symposium 2016 Thank you! Matt Burns / / mburns@genre.com Maria Slowinski / / maria.slowinski@genre.com Reinsurance Symposium 2016 An Umbrella Discussion Presented by Maria Slowinski and Matt Burns 49
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