Economics of the New York Agriculture & Food Sector

Transcription

1 Economics of the New York Agriculture & Food Sector Jennifer Ifft Assistant Professor and Mueller Family Sesquicentennial Faculty Fellow in Agribusiness and Farm Management January 24, 2017

2 Outline NY Farm Sector Indicators Key farm income components Farm wealth and land values Risk management A Closer Look at NY Agriculture Issues Trade Labor Regulation Looking Forward

3 NY farm income nearing 10-year low Note: Government payments includes commodity programs, conservation payments, disaster payments, MILC, etc. and excludes Federal crop insurance premium subsidies

4 Farm income forecast for 2017 near average 2.5 NY Net Cash Farm Income, $ Billion average average Actual Forecast Source: USDA Economic Research Service (Actual) and Authoritative Analytics (Forecast)

5 Farm income downturn or return to normal? Long-term trends in U.S. farm sector cash earnings Source: Morehart 2017,

6 Farm liquidity becoming more problematic at national level Working capital / total cash expenses (U.S) Source: Morehart 2017,

7 Recent revenue trends vary by specialization

8 National Outlook-crop and livestock cash receipts Source: Morehart 2017,

9 Inflation-adjusted wages continued to increased sharply in 2016

10 Little relief expected for farm expenses nationally Source: Morehart 2017,

11 Land values steady but beginning to reflect declining farm income

12 NY farmland wealth increased by over $4 billion from

13 Stable agricultural land use in recent years

14 Stable number of New York farms, size very gradually increasing

15 2016 insurance payouts likely to exceed or match 2015 Note: Loss ratio = 1 implies total premiums (including premium subsidy) are equivalent to indemnities; typically farm operations pay less than 40 percent of total premiums, with the remainder as premium subsidy

16 2016 drought-related losses at historic high

17 Trade is of growing importance to the farm sector From The Importance of Agriculture Exports to U.S. Trade and the Farm Economy Gardiner/FCA OPR, 2015

18 Trade: Dairy From Growth of U.S. Dairy Exports Cessna et al, 2016

19 U.S. apple trade is increasing compared to domestic consumption U.S. Fresh apple trade: 25% of U.S. exports go to Mexico U.S. is largest global exporter in value terms 14 percent of production into 1980s to 28 percent by 2015 Perez 2016: A Bigger Piece of the Pie: Exports Rising in Share of U.S. Apple Production

20 NY state rankings: absolute measures State Rankings: Cash Receipts (2014) Total cash receipts #27 Dairy #3, apples #2, grapes #4, cabbage #2, snap beans #4 Total production expenses #26 Feed #24, total labor expenses #12 Net cash farm income #25 Acres of farmland #36, number of farms #24 Source: USDA Economic Research Service (2015)

21 NY state rankings: performance measures Net cash farm income/acres farmland: #15 Top ten during good years for dairy income Net cash farm income/number farms: #21 Production expenses/acres farmland: #15 Labor as a share of production expenses: #15 Cash receipts/acres farmland: #25 Government payments/net farm income: #40 Source: USDA Economic Research Service (2015)

22 Labor regulations by state California Florida Georgia Michigan Oregon Pennsylvania New York Texas Washington Wisconsin Collective Bargaining Worker s Compensation X X X X X X X X X X X Overtime Can pay piecework rates instead of minimum wage* X X *Wages for average worker (ability and effort) in this system are mandated to be at least minimum wage

23 Minimum Wage Minimum wage applicable to farm workers $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Georgia Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin Florida* Michigan* New York Oregon California Washington *Linked to CPI, 2021 levels imputed Note: NY minimum wage for rural counties only, rates for New York City and some surrounding counties are higher; minimum wage increases scheduled after 2021 for California and Oregon

24 Farm worker wages relative to cost of living Source: 2015 BLS Occupational Employment Statistics; Economic Policy Institute - living wage for 1 adult in rural areas

25 NY has high property taxes relative to competitor states 1.4% 2015 Property Taxes & Fees as a Percentage of Farm Real Estate Values 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Texas Florida Oregon California Washington Georgia Wisconsin Pennsylvania Michigan New York Source: Property taxes and fees for operators and non-operators: USDA Economic Research Service, Total farm real estate values, including land and buildings: USDA NASS

26 NY has higher property taxes relative to farm expenses 7% Property taxes and fees as a percentage of cash expenses 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Georgia Washington California Florida Texas Wisconsin Oregon Pennsylvania Michigan New York Source: USDA Economic Research Service

27 NY has lower average land values than many competitor states $9,000 Farm Real Estate, $ per acre $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Texas Oregon Washington New York Georgia Wisconsin Michigan Florida Pennsylvania California Source: USDA NASS

28 NY has higher insurance expenditures than competitor states 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Insurance as a share of cash expenses* 0.0% Georgia California Washington Texas Florida Oregon Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan New York *EXCLUDES federal crop insurance expenditure Source: USDA Economic Research Service

29 Share of expenses for regulatory costs 12% Insurance and Property Taxes as a share of cash expenses 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Georgia Washington California Florida Texas Oregon Wisconsin Pennsylvania Michigan New York Insurance Property Taxes Insurance EXCLUDES federal crop insurance expenditure Source: USDA Economic Research Service

30 Dairy operation regulations nutrient management plans California - R5 - Central Valley California - R8 - Santa Ana CNMP required (NRCS standards)* Manure Management If CNMP required, stipulations, other than NRCS needs to be prepared/ CNMP reviewed by expert No Yes Other No Yes Other Idaho Yes Yes Michigan No Yes Other Minnesota No Yes Other New Mexico No Yes Other New York Yes Yes Pennsylvania No Yes Other Texas Yes No Washington Yes Yes No Wisconsin Yes No Source: Sneeringer 2015, *States were afforded a yes only if they explicitly referenced the NRCS

31 General regulations California - R5 - Central Valley California - R8 - Santa Ana Zoning for agricultural operations allowed No No State regulations cannot be more stringent than Federal Idaho Some Yes Michigan Full No Minnesota No No with discloure New Mexico No No New York Some No Pennsylvania Some Yes with exceptions Texas Some No Washington No No Wisconsin Some Yes with exceptions No No Source: Sneeringer 2015

32 Looking forward The current 2017 outlook is steady Aggregate farm income appears to be near the long-term equilibrium Dairy receipts are predicted to increase slightly Not much relief on expenses Fuel, interest and labor expected to increase Potential liquidity issues for some farms Negative shocks would cause serious pain at this point Issues at stake with the new administration have serious consequences for New York agriculture State vs. federal

33 Jennifer Ifft Assistant Professor Mueller Family Sesquicentennial Faculty Fellow in Agribusiness and Farm Management Phone: (607) Webpage: