I. Commodity Performance

Transcription

1 6 August 12 I. Commodity Performance Commodity Analyst Eugene Kang l eugene@etrade.co.kr 1. Global Commodity Index 3 Aug 27 Jul WoW MoM YoY YTD Dow Jones UBS CI % 2.6% -11.7% 1.6% S&P Goldman Sachs CI % 4.8% -3.6%.4% T/Reuters Jefferies CRB % 2.8% -.9% -1.5% Rogers International CI 3,587. 3, % 4.3% -11.2% -1.1% Commodity Index Trend As of 3 Aug 12 (5.1=) Dow Jones UBS CI S&P Goldman Sachs CI T/Reuters Jefferies CRB Rogers International CI 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 2. Dow Jones UBS Commodity sub-index As of 3 Aug 12 WoW MoM YTD WoW MoM YTD Energy -.2% 3.7% -8.9% Grains.9% 13.8% 38.3% Precious -.4% -1.2% 1.3% Softs -.4% -.6% -.6% Base -1.7% -5.9% -7.4% Livestock -2.8% -3.5% -6.1% Energy vs. Precious vs. Base Grains vs. Softs vs. Livestock (pt) 6 6 Dow Jones UBS Precious sub-index (L) Dow Jones UBS Industrial sub-index (L) Dow Jones UBS Energy sub-index (R) (pt) 2 2 (pt) 2 Dow Jones UBS Softs sub-index (L) Dow Jones UBS Grains sub-index (R) Dow Jones UBS Livestock sub-index (R) (pt)

2 Commodity Performance 3. Commodity Futures Top/Bottom 5 As of 3 Aug 12 Weekly Change (WoW) Monthly Change (MoM) Top 5 Bottom 5 Top 5 Bottom 5 Cotton 3.5% 1 Lean Hogs -5.9% Wheat 13.9% 1 Nickel 3M -9.7% Cocoa 2.9% 2 Natural Gas -4.4% Corn 12.7% 2 Lean Hogs -7.6% Rough Rice 2.4% 3 Sugar #11-2.3% Rough Rice 8.6% 3 Tin 3M -7.% RBOB Gasoline 1.5% 4 Aluminum 3M -1.8% RBOB Gasoline 7.6% 4 Aluminum 3M -6.2% Corn 1.4% 5 Nickel 3M -1.7% Heating Oil 6.1% 5 Platinum -5.% 4. Commodity Futures Scoreboard As of 3 Aug 12 Weekly Change (WoW) WTI Crude Oil Heating Oil Natural Gas RBOB Gasoline Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Aluminum 3M Copper 3M lead 3M Nickel 3M Tin 3M Zinc 3M Corn Soybeans SoyBean Oil Wheat Rough Rice Cocoa Coffee "C" Cotton Sugar #11 Live Cattle Lean Hogs Yearly Change (YoY) Nickel 3M Silver Tin 3M Cotton Natural Gas Coffee "C" Palladium Aluminum 3M lead 3M Zinc 3M Copper 3M Platinum Sugar #11 Cocoa Lean Hogs SoyBean Oil Gold Heating Oil Rough Rice WTI Crude Oil RBOB Gasoline Live Cattle Corn Soybeans Wheat -5.9% -4.4% -1.7% -2.3% -.7% -1.8% -1.6% -1.5% -1.7% -1.2% -1.% -.8% 1.2%.5% 1.1%.%.1%.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.5% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% -34.4% -33.4% -31.9% -29.9% -29.7% -28.2% -27.3% -26.3% -24.9% -22.6% -21.9% -.8% -.6% -17.8% -14.4% -7.5% -3.5% -3.1% -2.3% -.6%.% 6.1% 14.7% 21.4% 25.4% -55% -35% -15% 5% 25% 45% Monthly Change (MoM) WTI Crude Oil Heating Oil Natural Gas RBOB Gasoline Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Aluminum 3M Copper 3M lead 3M Nickel 3M Tin 3M Zinc 3M Corn Soybeans SoyBean Oil Wheat Rough Rice Cocoa Coffee "C" Cotton Sugar #11 Live Cattle Lean Hogs -1.% -1.6% -5.% -3.5% -6.2% -4.8% -2.3% -9.7% -7.% -3.5% -7.6% Year to Date Change (YTD) -1.7% -3.5% -.8% 2.3%.6%.1%.4% 4.3% 6.1% 5.3% 7.6% 8.6% 12.7% 13.9% -15% -% -5% % 5% % 15% % Coffee "C" -23.4% Cotton -.2% Nickel 3M -16.6% Palladium -11.9% Aluminum 3M -7.9% WTI Crude Oil -7.5% lead 3M -6.9% Tin 3M -6.8% Sugar #11-5.6% Natural Gas -3.7% Live Cattle -2.4% Copper 3M -2.% Heating Oil -.3% Zinc 3M -.3% Silver -.3% SoyBean Oil -.1% Platinum Gold Lean Hogs RBOB Gasoline Rough Rice Cocoa Corn Wheat Soybeans 1.1% 2.5% 6.2% 9.1% 9.4% 13.7% 25.3% 36.5% 38.2% -% -% % % % % E*trade Korea Research Group 2

3 Commodity Performance 5. Commodity Futures Price Energy Precious Base Grains Softs Livestock EXCH 3 Aug 27 Jul WoW MoM YoY YTD WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) NYM % 4.3% -.6% -7.5% Heating Oil ( /bbl) NYM % 6.1% -3.1% -.3% Natural Gas ($/MMbtu) NYM % -.8% -29.7% -3.7% RBOB Gasoline ( /gal) NYM % 7.6%.% 9.1% Gold ($/T oz) NYM 1,6. 1, % -1.% -3.5% 2.5% Silver ($/T oz) NYM % -1.6% -33.4% -.3% Platinum ($/T oz) NYM 1,414. 1,6..5% -5.% -.8% 1.1% Palladium ($/T oz) NYM % -3.5% -27.3% -11.9% Aluminum 3M LME 1,8 1, % -6.2% -26.3% -7.9% Copper 3M LME 7,445 7, % -4.8% -21.9% -2.% lead 3M LME 1,895 1, % -2.3% -24.9% -6.9% Nickel 3M LME 15,6 15, % -9.7% -34.4% -16.6% Tin 3M LME 17, 18, % -7.% -31.9% -6.8% Zinc 3M LME 1,8 1, % -3.5% -22.6% -.3% Corn ( /bu) CBOT % 12.7% 14.7% 25.3% Soybeans ( /bu) CBOT 1, , % 5.3% 21.4% 38.2% SoyBean Oil ( /lbs) CBOT % -1.7% -7.5% -.1% Wheat ( /bu) CBOT % 13.9% 25.4% 36.5% Rough Rice ( /bu) CBOT % 8.6% -2.3% 9.4% Cocoa ICE_US 2,398. 2,3. 2.9% 2.3% -17.8% 13.7% Coffee "C" ( /lbs) ICE_US % -3.5% -28.2% -23.4% Cotton ( /lbs) ICE_US %.6% -29.9% -.2% Sugar #11 ( /lbs) ICE_US %.1% -.6% -5.6% Live Cattle ( /lbs) CME %.4% 6.1% -2.4% Lean Hogs ( /lbs) CME % -7.6% -14.4% 6.2% Note 1): bbl.=barrels, Mmbtu=Million British Thermal Units, gal.=gallons, oz.=troy Ounces, MT=Metric Tons, lb.=pounds Note 2): NYM=Nymex, CMX=Comex, LME=London Metal Exchange, CME=Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CBOT=Chicago Board Of Trade 6. Commodity ETFs Energy Precious Base Ticker 3 Aug 27 Jul WoW MoM YoY YTD US Oil Fund USO % 3.4% -5.% -.6% US Heating Oil Fund UHN % 6.4% -5.% -.4% US Natural Gas Fund UNG % 1.% -52.2% -23.5% US Gasoline Fund UGA % 11.7% 11.7% 16.1% SPDR Gold Trust GLD % -1.2% -3.7% 2.3% ISHARES Silver Trust SLV % -1.9% -33.5%.1% ETFS Physical Pt Shares PPLT % -5.7% -21.7%.2% ETFS Physical Pd Shares PALL % -3.6% -27.7% -12.% ETFS Aluminum ALUM % -6.8% -31.6% -11.3% ETFS Copper COPA % -5.6% -24.6% -3.1% ETFS Physical Lead PHPB % -3.1% -.9% -9.8% ETFS Nickel NICK % -9.9% -36.1% -15.8% ETFS Physical Tin PHSN % -6.6% -33.9% -6.3% ETFS Physical Zinc PHZN % -4.9% -28.4% -4.9% Grains Teucrium Corn Fund CORN % 14.3% 7.9% 21.5% Softs IPATH DJ-UBS Cocoa NIB % 2.% -21.% 14.1% IPATH DJ-UBS Coffee JO % -4.2% -34.% -26.8% IPATH DJ-UBS Cotton BAL % 2.% -25.% -13.9% IPATH DJ-UBS Sugar SGG % -.2% -12.1%.9% Livestock ETFS Lean Hogs HOGS % -8.1% -13.1% -8.1% E*trade Korea Research Group 3

4 Commodity Performance 7. Financial Market Indicators 3 Aug 27 Jul WoW MoM YoY YTD Dow Jones Industrial 13, , % 1.2%.1% 7.2% S&P 1,3.99 1, % 1.2%.4%.6% FTSE 5, , % 1.8% 3.6% 3.9% DAX 6, , % 4.4% 3.4% 13.% Shanghai A 2, , % -4.3% -.4% -3.% KOSPI 1, , % -1.% -.5% 1.2% EURUSD % -1.8% -13.5% -4.2% USDCNY %.3% -1.% 1.1% USDAUD % -2.7% 1.8% -3.2% USDBRL %.6%.% 8.4% USDINR % 2.5% 25.8% 4.6% USDKRW 1, , % -.3% 7.% -1.8% US Year % -4.1% -.3% -16.7% 8. Commodity Equities (Unit: USD) Ticker 3 Aug 27 Jul WoW MoM YoY YTD Exxon Mobil XOM US % 1.5% 12.6% 3.3% Chevron CVX US % 3.5% 8.1% 4.4% Energy BP bp US %.5% -5.% -4.% Peabody Energy BTU US % -18.8% -.6% -35.7% Cliffs Natural Resources CLF US % -16.5% -51.1% -32.5% BHP Billiton BHP US % 2.1% -21.6% -3.7% Vale VALE US % -11.2% -.9% -14.8% Rio Tinto RIO US % -3.8% -29.1% -2.7% Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold FCX US % -4.9% -33.9% -8.9% & Mining Southern Copper SCCO US % 1.1% 1.4% 8.7% Alcoa AA US % -6.% -41.3% -3.2% LS 62 KS % 1.1% -24.6% 18.4% Korea Zinc KS % -3.5% -21.4% 25.8% Hyundai Steel KS % -5.9% -36.8% -.1% POSCO 54 KS % -2.1% -26.2% -1.2% Precious Metal Barrick Gold ABX US % -15.4% -33.3% -27.6% Newmont Mining NEM US % -.2% -21.8% -25.6% Du Pont DD US % -.2% -2.% 8.1% Agriculture Deere & Co DE US % -5.2%.6%.2% Kellogg K US % 1.6% -7.4% -.4% Nestle NESN VX % 2.7% -1.9% 8.7% 주 : New York Stock Exchange, Korea Stock Exchange, SIX Swiss Stock Exchange Listed Company/Corporation E*trade Korea Research Group 4

5 Commodity Performance Commodity & Equity Chart Freeport-McMoRan vs. LME Copper 3M Alcoa vs. LME Aluminum 3M (USD) 65 Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (L) Copper 3M (R), (USD) Alcoa (L) Aluminum 3M (R) 2, , 9, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, , 2, 2, 2, 1, 25 6, 6 1, LS Corp. vs. LME Copper 3M Korea Zinc vs. LME Zinc 3M (USD) LS CORP (L) Copper 3M (R), (USD) 4 KOREA ZINC CO (L) Zinc 3M (R) 2, 1, 9, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, , 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 1 1, Hyundai Steel vs. SHFE Rebar POSCO vs. COMEX HRC (USD) HYUNDAI STEEL (L) (CNY/MT) Steel Rebar (R) 5, 1 5, 5, 5, 4, 1 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, (USD) POSCO (L) Hot Rolled Steel (R) E*trade Korea Research Group 5

6 Commodity Performance Commodity & Equity Chart Barrack Gold vs. COMEX Gold (USD) Barrick Gold (L) Gold (R) ($/oz) 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Vale vs. Iron Ore (USD) Vale (L) China import Iron Ore Fines 62% (R) Exxon Mobil vs. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Cliffs Natural Resources vs. NYMEX Natural Gas Exxon Mobil (L) (USD) WTI Crude Oil (R) ($/bbl) (USD) 1 Cliffs Natural Resources (L) Natural Gas (R) ($/MMBtu) Du Pont vs. CBOT Soybean Kellogg vs. CBOT Corn (USD) Du Pont (L) Soybean (R) ( /bu) (USD) Kellogg (L) Corn (R) ( /bu) E*trade Korea Research Group 6

7 Commodity Performance 8. Appendix Commodity Index Dow Jones UBS CI S&P Goldman Sachs CI T/Reuters Jefferies CRB Rogers International CI Energy % % 39% 28. % Precious % 3.22 % 7% 7. % Base % 8.15 % 13 % 14. % Grains 22.9 % % 13 % 17. % Softs 8.33 % 5.39 % 21 % 9. % Livestock 5.75 % 4.32 % 7 % 9. % CI Sector Components Ticker EXCH Weight Dow Jones UBS CI S&P Goldman Sachs CI Energy Precious Base Grains Softs Livestock Energy Precious Base Grains Softs Livestock Source: Bloomberg, Dow JonesUBS, S&PGoldmanSachs, E*trade Korea Research Group RBOB GASOLINE XB NYM 3.41 HEATING OIL HO NYM 3.46 BRENT CRUDE OIL CO ICE 5.31 WTI CRUDE OIL CL NYM 9.69 NATURAL GAS NG NYM.77 GOLD GC NYM 9.79 SILVER SI NYM 2.77 LME ALUMINUM 3M LMAHDS3 LME 5.88 LME NICKEL 3M LMNIDS3 LME 2.58 COPPER HG NYM 7.6 LME ZINC 3M LMZSDS3 LME 3.12 SOYBEAN OIL BO CBOT 3.37 CORN C CBOT 6.67 SOYBEAN S CBOT 7.8 WHEAT (CBOT) W CBOT 4.96 COFFEE 'C' KC NYB 2.57 COTTON NO.2 CT NYB 2. SUGAR #11 SB NYB 3.76 LIVE CATTLE LC CME 3.63 LEAN HOGS LH CME 2.11 WTI CRUDE OIL CL NYM.49 BRENT CRUDE OIL CO ICE HEATING OIL HO NYM 4. NATURAL GAS NG NYM 2.94 GAS OIL (ICE) QS ICE 7.36 RBOB GASOLINE XB NYM 4.78 GOLD GC CMX 2.68 SILVER SI CMX.54 LME ALUMINUM 3M LMAHDS3 LME 2.53 LME COPPER 3M LMCADS3 LME 3.74 LME NICKEL 3M LMNIDS3 LME. LME LEAD 3M LMPBDS3 LME.47 LME ZINC 3M LMZSDS3 LME.61 CORN C CBOT 4.64 WHEAT (KCB) KW KCB.99 SOYBEAN S CBOT 2.55 WHEAT (CBOT) W CBOT 3.23 COCOA CC NYB. COTTON NO.2 CT NYB 1.79 COFFEE 'C' KC NYB 1.2 SUGAR #11 SB NYB 2.28 CATTLE FEEDER FC CME.41 LIVE CATTLE LC CME 2.42 LEAN HOGS LH CME 1.49 Grains 22% Grains 12% Precious 3% Base 8% Livestock 6% Softs 8% Base 19% Livestock 4% Softs 5% Energy 33% Precious 12% Energy 68% E*trade Korea Research Group 7

8 Commodity Performance CI Sector Components Ticker EXCH Weight T/Reuters Jefferies CRB Rogers International CI Energy Precious Base Grains Softs Livestock Energy Precious Base Grains Softs Livestock Source: Bloomberg, T/Reuters, RogersInternational, E*trade Korea Research Group WTI CRUDE OIL CL NYM 23% HEATING OIL HO NYM 5% NATURAL GAS NG NYM 6% RBOB GASOLINE XB NYM 5% GOLD GC CMX 6% SILVER SI CMX 1% COPPER HG CMX 6% LME ALUMINUM 3M LMAHDS3 LME 6% LME NICKEL 3M LMNIDS3 LME 1% CORN C CBOT 6% SOYBEAN S CBOT 6% WHEAT W CBOT 1% COTTON NO.2 CT NYB 5% COCOA CC NYB 5% COFFEE 'C' KC NYB 5% SUGAR #11 SB NYB 5% ORANGE JUICE JO NYB 1% LIVE CATTLE LC CME 6% LEAN HOGS LH CME 1% WTI CRUDE OIL CL NYM 21. BRENT CRUDE OIL CO ICE 14. RBOB GASOLINE XB NYM 3. NATURAL GAS NG NYM 3. HEATING OIL HO NYM 1. GAS OIL QS ICE 1. SILVER SI CMX 2. GOLD GC CMX 3. PALLADIUM PA NYM. PLATINUM PL NYM 1. LME ALUMINUM 3M LMAHDS3 LME 4. LME COPPER 3M LMCADS3 LME 4. LME TIN 3M LMSNDS3 LME 1. LME NICKEL 3M LMNIDS3 LME 1. LME ZINC 3M LMZSDS3 LME 2. LME LEAD 3M LMPBDS3 LME 2. CORN C CBOT 4.75 WHEAT (CBOT) W CBOT 4.75 SOYBEAN S CBOT 3.35 SOYBEAN OIL BO CBOT 2. WHEAT (KCBT) KW KCB 1. MILLING WHEAT 1. ROUGH RICE RR CBOT.75 SOYBEAN SM CBT.75 OATs O CBT. RED BEANS JE TGE.15 COTTON #2 CT NYB 4. COFFEE 'C' KC NYB 2. SUGAR #11 SB NYB 2. RUBBER JN TCM 1. COCOA CC NYB 1. CANOLA RS WCE.75 ORANGE JUICE JO NYB. LIVE CATTLE LC CME 2. LEAN HOGS LH CME 1. LUMBER LB CME 1. WOOL OL SFE. Grains 19% Softs 21% Grains 13% Softs 12% Base 14% Livestock 7% Base 13% Livestock 4% Precious 7% Precious 7% Energy 44% Energy 39% E*trade Korea Research Group 8

9 Commodity Investment Activity II. Commodity Investment Activity 1. Commodity Futures vs. S&P Index Trend As of 31 Jul 12 (11.1=) NYMEX WTI Crude Oil CBOT Soybean COMEX Copper COMEX Gold S&P /1 11/5 11/9 12/1 12/5 Price 31 July WoW (%) Non-Commercial 31 July WoW (Contracts) YTD (Contracts) NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) ,397-16,296 29,9 COMEX Copper ($/lb) ,7-1,651-11,128 COMEX Gold ($/oz) 1, ,64 13,87-4,724 CBOT Soybeans ($/bu) ,126-12, ,117 NYBOT Sugar # ,342-1,2 95, Commodity & Index Weekly Performance As of 31 Jul 12 Weekly Change (WoW) Non-Commercial Net Position (%) (' ) Energy (L) (L) Grains (L) Soft (L) DJ-UBS CI (R) (%) NYMEX WTI CBOT Soybean COMEX Copper COMEX Gold Dollar Index S&P KOSPI - - 6/5 6/12 6/19 6/26 7/3 7/ 7/17 7/24 7/ E*trade Korea Research Group 9

10 Commodity Investment Activity 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - Energy 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW MoM YTD NYMEX WTI Crude Oil($/bbl) % 3.65% -.% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 174,397 1,693-16,296 61,564 29,9 Open Interest 1,395,758 1,389,39 6,719-36,4,196 NYMEX RBOB Gasoline($/gal) % 6.87% 8.% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 63,2 69,437-5,535 3,324 9,16 Open Interest 245,8 267,443-21,623-35,9-29,2 NYMEX Heating Oil($/gal) % 5.% -3.18% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions ,81 2, ,996 Open Interest 3,178 4,333-1,155-33,567 26, NYMEX Natural Gas($/MMBtu) % 13.63% 7.36% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions -75,412-72,375-3,37 34,665 85,179 Open Interest 1,126,758 1,123,235 3,523-18, ,521 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/bbl) 1 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil (Left) (') ( /gal) NYMEX RBOB Gasoline (Left) (') 1-3 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 NYMEX Heating Oil NYMEX Natural Gas ( /gal) 4 NYMEX Heating Oil (Left) (') ($/MMBtu) 16 NYMEX Natural Gas (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 - E*trade Korea Research Group

11 Commodity Investment Activity 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - Metal 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW MoM YTD COMEX Copper($/lb) % -2.8% -.54% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions -14,7-13,69-1,651 2,124-11,128 Open Interest 142, , ,668 25,621 COMEX Gold($/oz) 1,6. 1, %.39% 2.79% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 126,64 112,977 13,87 3,445-4,724 Open Interest 3,3 4,296-16,893 -,215-15,542 COMEX Silver($/oz) % 1.21%.14% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 13,36 8,159 4,877 6,814 6,181 Open Interest 121,9 123,661-1,852-4,355 17,816 NYMEX Platinum($/oz) 1,416. 1, % -2.22% 1.23% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 18,281 18, Open Interest 52,2 51,43 1,177 1,871 9,282 COMEX Copper COMEX Gold COMEX Copper (Left) (') ($/t oz) COMEX Gold (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 COMEX Silver NYMEX Platinum ($/t oz) 53 COMEX Silver (Left) (') ($/t oz) 2 NYMEX Platinum (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 E*trade Korea Research Group 11

12 Commodity Investment Activity 5. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - Grain 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW MoM YTD CBOT Corn($/bu) % 19.93% 24.75% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 281, ,975 16,3 153, ,571 Open Interest 1,1,62 1,199,4-9, ,2 36,84 CBOT Wheat($/bu) %.% 36.8% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 54,917 57,118-2,1 34,2 99,658 Open Interest 467, , ,951 86,675 CBOT Soybeans($/bu) % 13.77% 43.% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 243, ,959-12,833 5, ,117 Open Interest 7, ,596-51,237-7,378 2,352 CBOT Rough Rice($/cwt) %.4% 6.92% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions , ,36 1,886 Open Interest 13,583 13, ,325-3,49 CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat ( /bu) 9 CBOT Corn (Left) (') ( /bu) CBOT Wheat (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 - CBOT Soybeans CBOT Rough Rice ( /bu) 1 CBOT Soybean (Left) (') ($/cwt) 27 CBOT Rough Rice (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-9 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-4 E*trade Korea Research Group 12

13 Commodity Investment Activity 6. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - Soft 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW MoM YTD NYBOT Sugar # % 3.81% -2.83% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 134, ,944-1,2 58,962 95,826 Open Interest 671, ,671 3,193-28, ,72 NYBOT Cotton % -2.19% % Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions -11,554-6,2-5,152-3,737-17,693 Open Interest 176, ,1 2,634,43 25,466 NYBOT Coffee "C" % 2.53% % Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions ,632-1,784 Open Interest 136, ,78 1, -3,168 32,175 NYBOT Cocoa 2,376. 2, % 3.% 12.66% Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions 15,723 8,845 6,878, 23,326 Open Interest 192,84 191,275 9,311 24,331 ICE Sugar #11 ICE Cotton 38 NYBOT Sugar #11 (Left) (') 2 NYBOT Cotton (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 - ICE Coffee "C" ICE Cocoa 3 NYBOT Coffee "C" (Left) (') 4 NYBOT Cocoa (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1-8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 - E*trade Korea Research Group 13

14 Commodity Investment Activity 7. COT Report Data Sheet Energy NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Producer/Merchant /Processor/User (Units: Thousand Contracts) Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportable 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW Long Short Net Positions NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Long Short Net Positions NYMEX Heating Oil Long Short Net Positions NYMEX Natural Gas Long Short Net Positions COMEX Copper Long Short Net Positions COMEX Gold Long Short Net Positions COMEX Silver Long Short Net Positions NYMEX Platinum Long Short Net Positions Note: Non-Commercial position = Managed Money + Others E*trade Korea Research Group 14

15 Commodity Investment Activity 8. COT Report Data Sheet Grain CBOT Corn Producer/Merchant /Processor/User (Units: Thousand Contracts) Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportable 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW 31 Jul 24 Jul WoW Long Short Net Positions CBOT Wheat Long Short Net Positions CBOT Soybeans Long Short Net Positions CBOT Rough Rice Long Short Net Positions Soft ICE Sugar #11 Long Short Net Positions ICE Cotton Long Short Net Positions ICE Coffee "C" Long Short Net Positions ICE Cocoa Long Short Net Positions Live Stock Live Cattle Long Short Net Positions Note: Non-Commercial position = Managed Money + Others E*trade Korea Research Group 15

16 Commodity Investment Activity 9. Commodity Futures & Open Interest NYMEX WTI Crude Oil NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/bbl) 1 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil (Left) (') 1, ( /gal) NYMEX RBOB Gasoline (Left) (') 1, 3 3 1, 1 1, 1, 1, 1, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 1, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 NYMEX Heating Oil NYMEX Natural Gas ( /gal) 4 NYMEX Heating Oil (Left) (') 3 ($/MMBtu) 16 NYMEX Natural Gas (Left) (') 1, , , 1, 1, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 CBOT Soybean CBOT Corn ( /bu) 1, CBOT Soybean (Left) (') ( /bu) 9 CBOT Corn (Left) (') 1, 1, 8 1, 1, 7 1, 1, 6 5 1, 1, 4 1, 3 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 E*trade Korea Research Group 16

17 Commodity Investment Activity CBOT Wheat CBOT Rough Rice ( /bu) 1, CBOT Wheat (Left) (') ($/cwt) 27 CBOT Rough Rice (Left) (') 29 1, 1, 1, 1, /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 9 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 4 NYBOT Sugar #11 NYBOT Cotton 38 NYBOT Sugar #11 (Left) (') 1, 2 NYBOT Cotton (Left) (') , 1, /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 NYBOT Coffee "C" NYBOT Cocoa 3 NYBOT Coffee "C" (Left) (') 2 4, NYBOT Cocoa (Left) (') 2 2 3, , 2, , 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 1, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 E*trade Korea Research Group 17

18 Commodity Investment Activity LME Copper LME Aluminum 11, LME Copper (Left) (') 3 3, LME Aluminum (Left) (') 1,, 9, 3 3, 1, 8, 7, 6, 5, 2 2 2, 2, 4, 3, 2 1, 2, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 2 1, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 LME Zinc LME Nickel 3, LME Zinc (Left) (') 3 35, LME Nickel (Left) (') 2, 2, 2 2, 25, 1 2, 1, 1, ,, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 5, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 LME Lead LME Tin 3, LME Lead (Left) (') 1 39, LME Tin (Left) (') 45 3, 2, 1 34, 29, 35 2, 24, 25 1, 1, 19, 14, 15 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 9, 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 E*trade Korea Research Group 18

19 Commodity Investment Activity COMEX Gold COMEX Silver ($/t oz) 2, COMEX Gold (Left) (') ($/t oz) 53 COMEX Silver (Left) (') 2 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 NYMEX Platinum NYMEX Palladium ($/t oz) 2, NYMEX Platinum (Left) (') 58 ($/t oz) NYMEX Palladium (Left) (') 28 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 CME Live Cattle CME Lean Hogs 135 CME Live Cattle (Left) (') 4 CME Lean Hogs (Left) (') /1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 E*trade Korea Research Group 19

20 Commodity Forward Curve III. Commodity Forward Curve NYMEX WTI Crude Oil NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/bbl) 96 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ( /gal) Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago /9 13/9 14/9 15/9 16/9 17/9 18/9 19/9 2 12/9 13/3 13/9 14/3 14/9 15/3 NYMEX Heating Oil NYMEX Natural Gas ( /gal) Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ($/MMBtu) 5.3 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago /9 13/9 14/9 15/9 CBOT Soybean /9 13/9 14/9 15/9 16/9 17/9 CBOT Corn ( /bu) 1, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ( /bu) 8 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 1, 8 1, 7 1, 1, , 5 1, 5 1, 12/8 13/2 13/8 14/2 14/8 4 12/9 13/3 13/9 14/3 14/9 E*trade Korea Research Group

21 Commodity Forward Curve CBOT Wheat CBOT Rough Rice ( /bu) 1, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ($/cwt) 17.5 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago /9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 13/12 14/3 14/ /9 12/12 13/3 13/6 NYBOT Sugar #11 NYBOT Cotton 24.5 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 81 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago /12 13/6 13/12 14/6 14/12 15/ / 13/4 13/ 14/4 14/ NYBOT Coffee "C" NYBOT Cocoa 2 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 2, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 5 2,4 2, 195 2, , 1 2, 175 2, 1 12/9 13/3 13/9 14/3 14/9 15/3 2, 12/9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 13/12 14/3 E*trade Korea Research Group 21

22 Commodity Forward Curve LME Copper LME Aluminum 7, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 2, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 7, 2, 2, 7, 2, 7, 2, 2, 7, 2, 7, 2, 7, 1, 1, 7, Cash 3M 15M 27M 63M 123M 1, Cash 3M 15M 27M 63M 123M LME Zinc LME Nickel 1,9 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 16, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 1,9 16, 1,9 16, 1,9 1, 1,8 16, 16, 1,8 15, 1,8 15, 1,8 Cash 3M 15M 27M 63M 15, Cash 3M 15M 27M 63M LME Lead LME Tin 2, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 19, Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 2, 19, 18, 2, 18, 1,9 18, 18, 1, 18, 1,8 Cash 3M 15M 27M 63M 17, Cash 3M 15M E*trade Korea Research Group 22

23 Commodity Forward Curve COMEX Gold COMEX Silver ($/t oz) 1,7 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ($/t oz) 28.2 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 1, ,7 1, , , , ,6 1, , ,5 12/8 13/8 14/8 15/8 16/8 17/ /9 13/9 14/9 15/9 16/9 NYMEX Platinum NYMEX Palladium ($/t oz) 1,423 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago ($/t oz) 582 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago 1,421 1, , ,415 1, , ,9 1, ,5 12/ 13/1 13/4 13/7 5 12/9 12/12 13/3 13/6 CME Live Cattle CME Lean Hogs 1 Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago Aug-3 a week ago 2 week ago /9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 12/8 12/11 13/2 13/5 13/8 E*trade Korea Research Group 23

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