SOVEREIGN DEBT MANAGEMENT FORUM 2016 DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR COMMODITY EXPORTERS: WHAT ARE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST YEAR?
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1 SOVEREIGN DEBT MANAGEMENT FORUM 2016 DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR COMMODITY EXPORTERS: WHAT ARE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST YEAR? AZER MURSAGULOV DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT AGENCY OF AZERBAIJAN MINISTRY OF FINANCE
2 Azerbaijan economy during commodity boom era 85% 65% 45% 25% 11.2% 10.2% 14.9% 13.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5% 34.5% 26.4% 66.3% 63.2% 36.8% 25.0% 10.8% 8.3% 11.9% 11.4% 6.8% 15.9% 9.3% 13.9% 5.0% Oil GDP growth rate Non-oil GDP growth rate GDP growth rate % 5.8% 2.8% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 7.9% 9.4% 9.6% 9.9% 6.9% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% -20% 889 GDP per capita, USD 2,472 1,590 1,049 3,482 5,603 5,018 5,922 7,285 7,594 7,977 7,991 During : GDP grew by more than 3 times GDP per capita grew 9 times Azerbaijan upper middle income country -15% % -9.8% -30% 33% 28% 27% 26% 23% 22% 17% 17% 14% -4% -5% -7% -9% -9% -9% -9% -14% -17% -18% Oil Fund Reserves Central Bank Reserves During : Significant oil revenues transformed into high current account surplus and substantial reserce accumulation -28% -30% -32% -35% Current account/gdp Capital & Financial account/gdp
3 Azerbaijan economy during commodity boom era 49% 4 46% 45% 4 40% 39% 2 Total public debt/gdp 20% 23% 26% 25% 26% 28% 17.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% 0.7% 2.3% 6.2% 13.7% 10.9% 4.2% 1.7% 2.8% 13% 1 8% 7% 12% 13% 1 14% 13% 12% During these years government accumulated strong fiscal balance while maintaining low Debt/GDP -22% -24% -22% -25% -26% -3-32% Consolidated budget revenue/gdp -34% -34% -37% -39% -36% Consolidated budget expenditures/gdp Consolidated budget surplus(deficit)/gdp Share of oil in GDP Share of non-oil in GDP Export of goods: Main Commodities 67% 66% 52% 43% 40% % 47% 52% 56% 60% Oil products 8.0% Other export 5.8% 33% 34% 48% 57% 60% 59% 49% 52% 53% 48% 44% 40% Natural gas 1.8% Non-hydrocarbon 12.6% Fresh fruits and vegetables 2.7% Sugar products 1.9% Tea 0.2% Aluminium 0.6% Vegetable oil 0.5% Despite all these achievements, oil and gas still remain central for the economy Oil 77.6% Iron products 0. Margarine Electricity % Cotton 0.2%
4 Lower oil prices, weak regional growth, currency devaluations of main trading partners and contraction in hydrocarbon production have impaired economic performance in Azerbaijan 9.9% Oil GDP (YoY%) Non-oil GDP (YoY%) Real GDP (YoY%) 16.7% 13.9% Current account/gdp Capital & Financial account/gdp 6.9% 5.8% 0.9% 2.8% 1.2% % -0.42% -2.10% -5.82% -2.9% -3.4% -8.8% Q, Q, % 40.2% 38.5% % 33.9% 38.7% 1.7% 2.8% -4.8% 27.6% As a result of external shocks: GDP contracted sharply Current account and government budget surplus have turned negative Consolidated budget revenue/gdp Consolidated budget expenditures/gdp Consolidated budget surplus(deficit)/gdp -16.9% Projection
5 Lower oil prices, weak regional growth, currency devaluations of main trading partners and contraction in hydrocarbon production have impaired economic performance in Azerbaijan SOFAZ, bln USD CBAR,bln USD FX Deposits AZN Deposits % 18% 20% % % 49.89% Q,2016 USDAZN EURAZN As a result of external shocks: With high dollarization and SOFAZ assets decreasing, economy has undergone twofold devaluation
6 Government acted swiftly with a number of offsetting measures Adjustments to the monetary policy Twofold devaluation Shift to managed floating exchange rate regime Tightening of monetary policy and preparation to gradual shift to inflation targeting Restructuring of the banking sector Blanket guarantee of deposits Macro prudential limits on FX lending Adjustments to the fiscal policy Counter-cyclical stimulus tailored to promote growth and protect vulnerable population (increase in (public sector wages, overall pensions and social protection expenditures) Capital expenditures were downsized. Growth friendly fiscal consolidation going forward Structural changes New strategy to rapidly diversify the economy by creating more business friendly environment and pursuing structural reforms. Establishment of Financial Market Authority Improved administration of tax and customs collections Government stimulus to private sector non-oil exports Government stimulus to foreign investment
7 Q, Q,2016 Public Debt Profile of Azerbaijan - Overview Domestic debt, mln USD External debt, mln USD Total public debt, USD External debt/gdp Total public debt/gdp Domestic debt/gdp 32% Total Domestic Debt 38% Eurobond 10% % 20% 13% 14% 18% 12% 13% 13% 12% 18% 1 1 8% 7% 12% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 15% 9% 10% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 6% 2% 2% 3% 20% 12% State guaranteed loans 2% Obligations to Central Bank 2% Government bonds Contingent Liabilities 34% Contingent Liabilities 14% Development loans 27% Commercial loans 9% Funds, Total External Debt 62% over 20 years years years 7-10 years 5-7 years 2-5 years 6% 9% 14% 13% 22% 34% Variable interest rate 27% USD EUR SDR AZN Others 10% 9% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 18% 26% 28% 28% 35% 8% 35% 35% 6% 5% 16% 8% 14% 12% 5% 12% 10% 1 19% 1-2 years 6 months - 1 year up to 6 months Public Debt Maturity Structure Fixed interest rate 73% 20% 23% 16% 30% 37% 55% 50% 52% 46% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q2016 2Q2016
8 Public Debt Profile of Azerbaijan - Major Issues increasing borrowing needs need for more diverse debt portfolio increased market volatility Increase in costs and risks of public debt management: need for new strategy with focus on new macroeconomic context and challenges
9 Integrating public debt management into broader macroeconomic framework Financial Stability Board Monetary Policy FX and depreciation pressures Domestic market liquidity pressures Focus on short term inflation targeting Policy measures via government bond market Debt sustainability in the context of achieving monetary and fiscal stability Debt Strategy Fiscal Policy Need for financing for strategic projects and capital spending and economic growth Structural fiscal balance financing pressure
10 Priority strategies of debt management in light of new macroeconomic challenges Medium term perspective Government closely collaborating with IMF on: Medium term fiscal framework Rule based fiscal regime Close coordination between monetary and fiscal policies Coordination with macroeconomic policies Focus on domestic borrowing an government bond market development Managing market and refinancing risk Managing contingent liabilities Government closely collaborating with WB on: Improving overall debt management structure Medium term debt management strategy Managing market risk more efficiently Government bond market development
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