Debt Sustainability Framework Debt Sustainability Analysis (Cambodia) DMF Stakeholders Forum June 3-4, 2015, Manila, Philippines

Transcription

1 Debt Sustainability Framework Debt Sustainability Analysis (Cambodia) DMF Stakeholders Forum June 3-4, 21, Manila, Philippines Thirong PEN Deputy Director General General Department of Budget Ministry of Economy and Finance Kingdom of Cambodia 1

2 Outline 1. Legal Framework 2. Institutional and HR Development 2.1. Institutional Development 2.2. HR Development 3. DSA Exercise 4. Preliminary Results and Conclusions 4.1. Preliminary Results 4.2. Conclusions. Views on the DSF 2

3 1. Legal Framework Law Law on Public Financial System Law on Government Securities Law on National Budget Cambodia receives only highly concessional loans. Subdecree Sub-decree on Public Debt Management The Sub-decree orders the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) to conduct a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) at least every two years and update as necessary. 3

4 2. Institutional and HR Development 4

5 2.1. Institutional Development Integration of Middle Office (MO) function into the Back Office (BO) in 21 Merging MO and BO into a single office (ODAC) after Ministry s restructuring in late 213 (Details in next slides) Expansion of MO team from 2 to 6 staff

6 Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) Structure Minister Secretary of State Under Secretary of State Advisors Cabinet GD of Budget GD of National Treasury GD of Financial Industry GD of Economic & Public Finance Policy GD of Public Procurement GD of Customs & Excise GD of Taxation GD of State Property & Non-tax Revenue GD of Sub-national Finance General Secretariat General Inspectorate GD of Internal Audit 6

7 General Department of Budget (GDB) Director General Deputy Director General 3 Deputy Director Generals Department of Cooperation and Debt Management (DCDM) Department of Investment (DI) Department of General Affairs Department of Financial Affairs Department of Budget Formulation Debt Management Office PPP Unit 7

8 DCDM Structure Director Deputy Director Deputy Director Deputy Director Bilateral Cooperation 1 Office Bilateral Cooperation 2 Office Multilateral Cooperation 1 Office Multilateral Cooperation 2 Office Debt Management, Administration and Consolidation Office Front Offices Back-Middle Offices 8

9 2.2. HR Development Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA): 1 st Training by the ADB, IMF & WB, Manila, Philippines, 27 2 nd Training by the IMF & WB, Dhaka, Bangladesh, late 21 3 rd Training by the WB expert, Phnom Penh, August th Training by the WB, Bangkok, Thailand, March 214 th Training by the WB, Shanghai, China, November 214 Other Analysis Trainings: DPA Training by UNCTAD, September 212 Training on Contingent Liabilities Management, June 213 Other in-house trainings by ADB consultants 9

10 3. DSA Exercise Cambodia s Vision 22 NSDP/PIP Macro Framework RMS DMFAS Consultations with the IMF and other experts Key Inputs DSA Baseline Scenario Stress Test Scenario Alternative Scenario Debt Strategy Borrowing Limit Priority sectors (policy) Risk monitoring indicators/policies/ mechanisms Very concessional loan Key reform programs Institutional capacity Key Outputs 1

11 3. DSA Exercise (Con t) Cambodia is using LICs template (Medium Policy Thresholds, 3.2 CPIA 3.7) since 211. The key debt indicators to be monitored Debt Ratio PV of external debt Debt service Thresholds (Medium Policy) % of GDP 4 % of Exports 1 % of Revenue 2 % of Exports 2 % of Revenue 2 11

12 3. DSA Exercise (Con t) New borrowing for : Scenario 1: SDR 6 million 7 million p.a. Scenario 2: SDR 8 million 1, million p.a. Key macro assumptions: GDP growth: average 7% Revenue growth: (in % of GDP) average.% (214-18) &.3%-.4% (219-34) Exports: average 1% to GDP Exchange rate: 1USD = 4, 4,2 KHR Alternative Scenario: GDP growth: average 7% (214-18), 6% (219-22) & % (223-34) Revenue growth: average.% (214-18) &.2%-.3% (219-34) (in % of GDP) 12

13 4.1. Preliminary Results (1/4) Borrowing Scenario 1 (Excluding Old Debts) a- PV of debt-to-gdp ratio b- PV of debt-to-exports ratio c- PV of debt-to-revenue ratio d- Debt service-to-exports ratio 2 e- Debt service-to-revenue ratio Baseline 2 2 Historical scenario 1 1 Threshold 1 1 Alternative Scenario Most extreme shock (Exports shock) 13

14 4.1. Preliminary Results (2/4) Borrowing Scenario 1 (Including Old Debts) a- PV of debt-to-gdp ratio b- PV of debt-to-exports ratio c- PV of debt-to-revenue ratio d- Debt service-to-exports ratio 2 e- Debt service-to-revenue ratio Baseline 2 2 Historical scenario 1 1 Threshold 1 1 Alternative Scenario Most extreme shock (Exports shock) 14

15 4.1. Preliminary Results (3/4) Borrowing Scenario 2 (Excluding Old Debts) a- PV of debt-to-gdp ratio b- PV of debt-to-exports ratio c- PV of debt-to-revenue ratio d- Debt service-to-exports ratio 2 e- Debt service-to-revenue ratio Baseline 2 2 Historical scenario 1 1 Threshold 1 1 Alternative Scenario Most extreme shock (One-time depreciation shock for figure a; Exports shock for figures b, c, d & e) 1

16 4.1. Preliminary Results (4/4) Borrowing Scenario 2 (Including Old Debts) a- PV of debt-to-gdp ratio b- PV of debt-to-exports ratio c- PV of debt-to-revenue ratio d- Debt service-to-exports ratio 2 e- Debt service-to-revenue ratio Baseline 2 2 Historical scenario 1 1 Threshold 1 1 Alternative Scenario Most extreme shock (Exports shock) 16

17 4.2 Conclusions Cambodia s debt is sustainable and remains at low risk of debt distress; Annual borrowing limit for : max. of SDR 7 million; Priority sectors: infrastructure support growth and improved productivity; Maintaining macroeconomic stability by key reform programs Maintaining concessionality of new loans Monitoring and managing contingent liabilities Institutional capacity 17

18 . Views on the DSF Pros - Cost-free tool for evaluating the country s debt distress and see the future trend over the long run. - Supporting tool to define the country s annual borrowing limit. - Ensures the country meets international best practices and comparability across countries. Cons - A complicated tool with more than 4 worksheets (unused worksheets should be hidden) - Hard to find the input data since the requirement is too long (21 years=1-year estimate + 2-year projection) hence the results are less accurate. - No advanced training is provided. 18

19 Thank you! 19