DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT
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- Tamsyn Easter Peters
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1 Countercyclical Support (RRP AZE 5145) DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT The recent plunge in oil prices is playing a key role in driving up Azerbaijan s debt ratios from a low basis. The more cautious the outlook on oil prices in the years leading up to 21, the higher are the projected public and external debt ratios. The country s debt profile appears sustainable nevertheless, given the potential for the large oil fund to act as an effective fiscal buffer, limiting the need for excessive borrowing while supporting debt sustainability. 1. Azerbaijan s debt position has been negatively affected by falling oil prices. Until the onset of the oil price plunge in mid-14, Azerbaijan enjoyed an era of massive oil export revenues. As a result, the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) grew substantially to US$37 billion equivalent to 49 of GDP in 14. SOFAZ transfers to the national budget have provided, on average, about 4 of total government revenues between 1 and 14. The recent bout of low oil prices, however, has translated to a fall in oil revenues and budgetary transfers, consequently leading to increased borrowing needs. The ratio of public debt to GDP has jumped from 11 in 14 to 28 in 15, and the external debt to GDP ratio from 16 to an estimated Sanguine oil price assumptions imply higher oil revenues and lower financing requirements, with less upward pressure on debt ratios. An oil price scenario in line with the Asian Development Outlook 16 and the IMF s April 16 World Economic Outlook (Table 1) would see Azerbaijan s public debt-to-gdp ratio rise from just around 28 in 15 to 38.2 in 16 and stabilize thereafter at around 43 of GDP (Fig. 1a). 1 Thus, the public debt ratio will not breach the 5 public debt ratio threshold that would categorize Azerbaijan as an emerging market country requiring higher scrutiny, in line with IMF DSA practice. 2 Compared to a more conservative scenario in which oil prices would not exceed $4 per barrel by 21, this more realistic scenario reflects improved primary deficits, higher economic growth, as well as a projected rise in asset revenues. As a result, the public debt ratio would grow substantially, yet remain well within the 5 threshold throughout the projection horizon The use of SOFAZ buffers judiciously without risking intergenerational equity could limit public debt accumulation and support sustainability. Particularly in a less realistic low oil price environment described in footnote 2, Azerbaijan may decide to draw on its vast SOFAZ assets to act as buffer and stabilize the debt to GDP ratio below the 5 threshold. For example, simulations suggest that drawing down fund assets by a total of US$9 billion between 16 and 21, instead of bond issuances covering the entire financing need, could keep the public debt to GDP ratio at about 4 by 21 and the external debt ratio at 31 1 IMF s debt sustainability analysis projects public debt to GDP ratio of 37.5 in 16. IMF. 16. Republic of Azerbaijan: 16 Article IV Consultation Press Release, Staff Report and Annex ( 2 It should be noted that the 5 threshold for market-access countries in the IMF DSA framework serves as an indicative mark against which a country is deemed requiring closer scrutiny, in order to more broadly assess the specific factors bearing on that country s sustainability. For example, one such factor would be the size and composition of Azerbaijan s state oil fund. 3 Under the more conservative scenario oil prices will increase gradually but will not cross beyond US$4 by 21. Combined with macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions listed in Table 1, and assuming debt financing, such an oil price scenario could potentially translate into significant increases in both the public debt ratio and the external debt ratio. For example, public debt to GDP ratio would surge to 67 in as against 43 under more realistic oil price assumptions (Table 2). Oil prices underlying this scenario are provided by the MOF (see Table 1). Under such scenario, authorities would make no additional SOFAZ transfers on top of the normal transfers to the budget assumed equivalent to 4 of total government revenues. The Government would fund any fiscal shortfalls by new borrowing in the local or international markets. The 4 share is based on the average historical share of SOFAZ transfers to total government revenues between 1 and 15.
2 2 (Figs. 2a,b). Notably, the recourse to SOFAZ assets as a buffer in combination with debt financing appears feasible without significantly undermining the oil fund s asset accumulation in the longer term (Fig. 3). 4. Standard stress tests indicate vulnerability to macro-fiscal shocks, further emphasizing the importance of SOFAZ to act as a buffer against adversity. Lower GDP growth, higher interest rates, exchange rate depreciation, or a combination of these shocks make Azerbaijan s debt profile more vulnerable (Fig. 4). Further risks stem from contingent liabilities, such as the government resolution of distressed banks to avoid systemic collapse as well as the resolution of liabilities related to unprofitable state owned enterprises. Authorities readiness to partially liquidate SOFAZ assets appears key in the event of adverse macro-fiscal shocks. For example, a low price scenario plus an exchange rate shock with the manat depreciating by half may raise the debt to GDP ratio to 65 if a partial SOFAZ buffer was used. The public debt ratio would grow much larger if authorities chose not to tap SOFAZ assets and undertake additional borrowings instead. 5. Fan chart analysis suggests that while the baseline assumptions are compatible with the evidence about Azerbaijan s past debt drivers and dynamics, these debt projections are fraught with a significant degree of uncertainty. Fan chart analysis uses the historical interdependence among key variables driving debt dynamics and produces an array of likely future outcomes that fan out around the baseline projection. The baseline falling within the mid-range of the fan chart testifies to its historical compatibility. The broad range of the probabilistic projections making up the fan chart demonstrates the uncertainty surrounding the baseline, its underlying assumptions, and the possibilities for outcomes ranging from far worse to significantly better (Fig. 5). Figure 1a: Public Debt/GDP Figure 1b: External Debt/GDP ratio threshold
3 3 Figure 2a: Public Debt/GDP Debt Stabilization Figure 2b: External Debt/GDP Debt Stabilization (with ADB loan) (with ADB loan) Figure 3: SOFAZ (Oil Fund) Assets under Different Financing Options Conservative Oil Prices $ billion Normal budgetary transfers (new debt) Debt stabilizing Note: The numbers in gray boxes refer to the amounts of SOFAZ assets disinvestments to fulfill the residual financing needs. Source: ADB Estimates
4 4 Figure 4: Stress Tests Public Debt/GDP Figure 5: Fan Chart Public Debt/GDP Baseline Primary Balance Shock Real GDP Growth Shock Real Interest Rate Shock Real Exchange Rate Shock Combined Macro-fiscal shock Contingent liability shock 5 ratio threshold th-25th 25th-5th 5th-75th 75th-9th Baseline Historical Source: ADB Estimates Notes on stress test specifications: 1. A primary balance shock consists of a half-size shock on revenues, a 25-basis point (bp) shock on the interest rate for every 1 deterioration in primary balance, and a half-size shock on any planned fiscal consolidation and/ or the 1-year standard deviation of the primary balance ratio. 2. A real GDP growth shock consists of a.5 standard deviation shock on real GDP growth, a 25-bp shock on the interest rate for every 1 deterioration in the primary balance, and a 25-bp shock on inflation for every 1 percentage point (pp) decline in GDP growth. 3. A real interest rate shock consists of a 5-bp shock to the interest rate. 4. A real exchange rate shock consists of the maximum shock on the real exchange rate (based on the historical series, in this case a 5 depreciation) and a.25 pass-through to inflation (determined by the IMF). 5. A contingent liability shock consists of government expenditures increasing by equivalent of 1 of GDP due to its contingent liabilities, such as those arising from the financial sector. 6. A combined macro-fiscal shock is a combination of the real GDP growth shock and the contingent liability shock.
5 5 Table 1: Actual Estimate 1-year Projections Key Macroeconomic Assumptions Underlying Baseline average Real GDP growth (in percent) Nominal GDP growth (in percent) GDP deflator in domestic currency (change in percent) GDP deflator in US dollars (change in percent) Nominal external interest rate (in percent) Growth of exports (US dollar terms, in percent) Growth of imports (US dollar terms, in percent) Memo: Oil price assumptions ($/barrel) * * Provided by Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance (May 16). Table 2: Actual Estimate Projections Debt Ratios Under Different Financing Options Public Debt Ratio New debt Debt stabilizing Debt stabilizing (with ADB loan) External Debt Ratio New debt Debt stabilizing Debt stabilizing (with ADB loan) Public debt ratio: New debt External debt ratio: New debt Option that targets a particular public debt ratio. In this case, 4. Source: ADB Estimates.
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