Debt Sustainability Analysis (Cambodia) 2018 Asian Regional Public Debt Management Forum June 2018, Samui, Thailand

Transcription

1 Debt Sustainability Analysis (Cambodia) 2018 Asian Regional Public Debt Management Forum June 2018, Samui, Thailand DUN Bonita Office of Debt Analysis Department of Debt Management General Department of International Cooperation and Debt Management Ministry of Economy and Finance Kingdom of Cambodia 1

2 Outline Legal Framework Institutional Structure Public Debt Overview DSA Exercise Revised LIC DSF Key Takeaway 2

3 1. Legal Framework Law Law on Public Financial System Law on Government Securities Law on Annual Budget Subdecree Sub-decree on Public Debt Management Article 30 of the Sub-decree orders the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) to conduct a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) every two years and update as necessary. 3

4 2. Institutional Structure Ministry of Economy and Finance GD International Cooperation & Debt Management (GDICDM) Other 11 GDs, 1 GI, & 1 GS Dept. Debt Management Dept. General Affairs Dept. Multilateral Cooperation Dept. Bilateral Cooperation Office of Debt Analysis Middle Office Office of Multilateral Cooperation 1 Office of Bilateral Cooperation 1 Office of Debt Servicing Back Office Office of Multilateral Cooperation 2 Office of Bilateral Cooperation 2 Office of Administration & Information Technology Front Office 4

5 Cambodia Public Debt Overview Outstanding as of % 99.96% Domestic External External Debt by Creditor 9% 19% 11% 2% 5% 55% Paris Club Non-Paris Club Old Debts ADB WB Other Multilaterals Total Outstanding: USD Indicator Share of Foreign Currency in Total Public Debt 99.95% 99.96% Average Time to Maturity - "ATM" (Year) Weighted Average Interest Rate 1.08% 0.65% Weighted Average Maturity (Year) Weighted Average Grace Period (Year) External Debt by Currency 3% 15% 44% 4% 5% Others CNY JPY KRW SDR USD Weighted Average Grant Element 48.32% 54.97% 28% 5

6 3. DSA Exercise NSDP/PIP Cambodia s vision 2020 DMFAS Macro data from GDP Other data from IMF Key Inputs DSA Baseline scenario Stress test & Customized scenario Alternative (borrowing) scenario Debt Strategy Risk monitoring indicators Borrowing limit Annual Budget Law Annual debt ceiling Key Outputs 6

7 4.1. Borrowing Scenario 2015: SDR 600 million : SDR 700 million million p.a : SDR 800 million - 1,100 million p.a 7

8 4.2. Key Macro Indicators Baseline Scenario - GDP Growth 7% in average - Revenue (% of GDP) Average growth: : 0.5% (15.18% to 17.35%) : 0.2% - 0.4% (17.75% to 20.30%) - Exports Average growth 10% of GDP - Exchange rate KHR 4,050 KHR 4,200 per USD Customized Scenario: GDP & Revenue declines - GDP Growth (in average) - Revenue (% of GDP) : 7% : 6% : 5% Average growth: : 0.5% (15.18% to 17.35%) : 0.1% - 0.3% (17.65% to 19.00%) 8

9 4.3. CPIA & Threshold ADB WB & IMF Year (CPA) (CPIA) Debt Indicator Low CPIA 3.25 PV of external debt Threshold Moderate High 3.25 CPIA 3.75 CPIA 3.75 % of GDP % of Exports % of Revenues Debt Service % of Exports % of Revenues Source: Asian Development Bank, World Bank & International Monetary Fund 9

10 4.4. DSA Result a. PV of debt-to-gdp b. PV of debt-to-exports c. PV of debt-to-revenue d. Debt service-to-exports e. Debt service-to-revenue Baseline Historical scenario Customized Scenario Most extreme shock 5 5 Threshold

11 4.5. Conclusion Cambodia s public debt is sustainable and remains at low risk of debt distress Annual borrowing limit for 2015 at SDR 600 million and for between SDR 700 million million Maintaining macroeconomic stability Maintaining concessionality of new loans Monitoring and managing contingent liabilities 11

12 5. Revised LIC DFS Training: Yokohama, Japan in April 2018 Understanding the revised tools CI and Thresholds Stress Test Realism Tool Risk Rating: risk signal and judgement Moderate Risk and Market Module Data Preparation Next Step: DSA Exercise 12

13 5.1. CI and Thresholds Indicators Current CPIA 3.25 Weak Medium Strong Revision CI 2.69 Current Revision Current CPIA 3.75 Revision CI 3.05 PV of debt-to-gdp PV of debt-to-exports PV of debt-to-revenue Debt service-to-revenue Debt service-to-exports

14 6. Key Takeaway Data preparation Validation Projection Coordination between related parties Data Policy & Rules and Regulations Capacity building DSA template Excel 14

15 Thank you! 15