Bremner Growth Management Strategy - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Three Community Design Concepts. Final Report. September 2014

Transcription

1 Bremner Growth Management Strategy - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Three Community Design Concepts Final Report September 2014 Suite 2220 Sun Life Place Street Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3H1 T F

2 Contents 1. Introduction Community Design Concepts Structure of Report Approach to Analysis Scope of Analysis Analysis Timeframe Key Study Assumptions Fiscal Impact Analysis Development Parameters Municipal Operating Costs Municipal Capital Costs Municipal Transfers To Reserves Municipal Operating Revenues Key Findings Development Parameters Land Area Residential Development Non-Residential Development Assessment Operating Budget Overall Fiscal Impact Findings Appendix A: Bremner Community Design Concepts - Detailed Development Statistics Appendix B: Bremner Soft Capital Projections Appendix C: Bremner Hard Capital Projections: Off-Site and On-Site Road & Utility Infrastructure i

3 1. Introduction Strathcona County commissioned the consulting team led by Urban Strategies to develop a growth management strategy that considers developing the Bremner Lands in Strathcona County as a second urban growth node in the County. The fiscal impact analysis undertaken for this study considers the incremental effects future development in Bremner will have on the financial position of the County, including changes to municipal revenues and expenditures associated with providing services to the proposed Bremner development along with the additional assessment the proposed Bremner development will generate for the County. The Bremner Growth Management Strategy (GMS) study identified three community design concepts for consideration. Based on a technical evaluation of the concepts, including their projected fiscal impacts, a recommended concept was developed. The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of the results and key findings of the fiscal impact analysis that was undertaken for the three community design concepts. This report does not include any analysis of the recommended concept. The analysis in this report has been prepared to compare the potential fiscal impacts of the three community design concepts for Bremner on the municipal operations of Strathcona County. The results of the fiscal impact analysis examine the overall impacts of each option in the context of the rest of the County COMMUNITY DESIGN CONCEPTS The three community design concepts identified for Bremner and assessed to evaluate the potential fiscal impacts on the municipal operations of Strathcona County are illustrated in Figure Bremner Growth Management Strategy: Recommended Community Design Concept and Key Policy Directions. Public Open House June 12, Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 1

4 Figure 1: Community Development Concepts A B C 21 st Century Sherwood Park Population 62,300 23,500 units 30 units/ha 8,500 jobs Complete Centres Population 64,400 25,500 units 35 units/ha 9,800 jobs Downtown Strathcona Co. Population 69,500 28,100 units 40 units/ha 10,400 jobs STRUCTURE OF REPORT Following the introduction section, the report includes the following sections: Approach to Analysis: This section provides an overview of the information regarding the approach undertaken in conducting the fiscal impact analysis. It also includes a discussion of the key assumptions in the analysis. Fiscal Impact Analysis: This section provides an overview of the fiscal impacts of developing Bremner on the operations of Strathcona County, based on the three community design concepts defined. Key Findings: This section summarizes the key findings of the fiscal impact analysis. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 2

5 2. Approach to Analysis The fiscal impact analysis was conducted using a modified version of the County s Municipal Fiscal Impact Model (MFIM). The MFIM was originally developed approximately 20 years ago to address questions posed by Administration and Council at the time regarding the fiscal impacts of future development. To have the technical resources and support to answer this question, Strathcona County commissioned Applications Management Consulting Ltd. to develop a Municipal Fiscal Impact Model. This model was updated and refined over time to consider and assess both urban and rural development in the County. When the County undertook an initial evaluation of future growth node options in the County approximately 10 years ago, the MFIM was again used to conduct the fiscal impact analysis. For this analysis, the base year data in the MFIM was updated and forecasts of selected parameters for which projections were available were incorporated. The timeframe in the MFIM was also extended to include the projected build-out timeframe of the Bremner land area identified in the community design concepts SCOPE OF ANALYSIS As shown in Figure 2, the fiscal impact analysis captures various streams of municipal revenues and expenditures. On the revenue side, the fiscal impact analysis includes municipal property tax revenues from the assessment that would be generated from proposed development in each of the Bremner design concepts and the rest of the County as well as the operating revenues associated with providing municipal services to County ratepayers. On the expenditure side, the fiscal impact analysis includes projected operating costs associated with servicing County ratepayers and capital costs that would be funded from the County s municipal operations. While the costs of constructing the linear infrastructure (roads, utilities) required to service future development will be primarily funded by developers directly or through off-site development levies, the analysis includes the capital costs that would be incurred by Strathcona County to provide any additional infrastructure (not funded from developers) as well as to maintain and replace any new and/or enhanced assets that are added to the County s asset base. The analysis and results presented in this report are expressed in today s (real 2013) dollars. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 3

6 Figure 2: Municipal Revenue & Expenditure Components Net$Municipal$ Gain$(Loss)$ Municipal$ Revenues$ Municipal$ Expenditures$ Municipal$ Property$Taxes$ Opera;ng$ Revenues$ Capital$ Expenditures$ Opera;ng$ Expenditures$ New$ Infrastructure$$ (City$Funded)$$ Capital$ReD Investment$ (Lifecycle,$ Replacement)$ Developer$ Contributed$ Infrastructure$$ OffDSite$Levy$ Funded$ Infrastructure$ City$Funded$ Infrastructure$ The assumptions incorporated into the fiscal impact analysis are based on the best information available at the time of completing the analysis. The assumptions and results of the fiscal impact analysis that has been undertaken serve as a starting point for further discussions and subsequent refinements to the analysis as more detail becomes available in future phases of planning for Bremner, as required ANALYSIS TIMEFRAME The period over which the analysis has been conducted is 50 years. This requires the development of information and assumptions regarding both the short term and long term growth KEY STUDY ASSUMPTIONS The following is a summary of the information utilized and the key assumptions employed in preparing the fiscal impact analysis. Timeframe for the Analysis: The Base Year for the fiscal impact analysis is It is assumed that development on the Bremner lands would not commence until Inflation: All projections of revenues, expenditures and assessment, along with corresponding impacts, are presented in base year (2013) dollars Financial Information: The County s 2013 operating budget detail (by account code) was used as the basis for seeding the County s fiscal impact analysis with Base Year data. This data was used to identify the County s various revenue and expenditure streams by municipal service area. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 4

7 Municipal Mill Rates: The analysis is limited to an examination of the fiscal impacts on municipal property tax rates. Base Year (2013) municipal tax rates were used in the analysis. It was assumed that the current splits in municipal mill rates would remain in place over the forecast period. Population Growth: The same annual population forecasts were applied across all three community design concepts. Based on the population forecasts developed for the County, it is projected that Options A and B would be built out at the end of 2057 and Option C would build out at the end of Projected Development in Bremner: The development parameters for each community design concept were defined by Urban Strategies. Assessment projections were developed with the assistance of Strathcona County s Assessment Branch. It was assumed that the rate of development would be similar for all three options. See Appendix A for detail regarding the development statistics defined for each option. Projected Capital Requirements to Service Bremner: The County developed projections of future 'soft' capital requirements to service proposed growth in Bremner and the associated annual lifecycle costs to maintain these additional assets. Information on how these projects would be funded was also provided, and incremental operating impacts associated with new infrastructure were identified. The County determined that all three Bremner options would have the similar servicing requirements. See Appendix B for a summary of the capital projections prepared by the County. Projected road and utility servicing costs associated with servicing each Bremner option are based on the preliminary analysis undertaken by ISL Engineering. Assumptions regarding phasing of infrastructure, funding of infrastructure construction and lifecycle costs to maintain the infrastructure that would be the responsibility of the County were made by the County and Applications Management Consulting Ltd. See Appendix C for a summary of the assumptions regarding road and utility servicing requirements. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 5

8 3. Fiscal Impact Analysis This section provides an overview of the development assumptions and municipal revenue and expenditure projections for Strathcona County, including the proposed Bremner development DEVELOPMENT PARAMETERS The development parameters associated with each Bremner community design concept at full build-out are summarized in the table below: 2 Table 1: Bremner Development Parameters OPTION A OPTION B OPTION C Land Area (Net Ha) % NDA % NDA % NDA Residential (NRA) % % % Non-Residential % % % Total Net Developable Area (NDA) 1,020 1,039 1,060 Residential per NRA per NRA per NRA Dwelling Units 23, , , Population 62, , , Assessment ($M) % Total % Total % Total Residential 9,647 89% 10,272 86% 10,564 84% Non-Residential 1,212 11% 1,624 14% 1,996 16% Total 10,859 11,897 12,560 The net developable areas, projected dwelling units and population estimates defined for each option are based on information provided by Urban Strategies. The design concepts comprised different combinations of the following types of development: Residential: Low Density, Medium Density, Mixed Use and Estate Homes Non-Residential: Mixed Use, Big Box Retail, Business Park, Light Industrial and Institutional 2 Refer to Appendix A for detailed development statistics. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 6

9 Assessment projections were generated with input from the County s Assessment Branch based on the more detailed development statistics defined for each concept. The timing of when development proceeds in Bremner is dependent on when the County s current Urban Services Area, Sherwood Park, gets built out and the County s projected population growth over the forecast period. Based on the population forecasts developed for the County, it is projected that Sherwood Park would be largely built out by 2021, and development in Bremner would commence in Options A and B would be built out at the end of 2057 and Option C would build out at the end of Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the population and assessment projections for the County for each community design concept. Figure 3: Population Forecasts 200,000$$ Popula+on% 180,000$$ 160,000$$ 140,000$$ With$Bremner$A$ With$Bremner$B$ 120,000$$ With$Bremner$C$ 100,000$$ 80,000$$ 2013$ 2018$ 2023$ 2028$ 2033$ 2038$ 2043$ 2048$ 2053$ 2058$ Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 7

10 Figure 4: Assessment Projections 70,000,000%% Assessment%($000)% 65,000,000%% 60,000,000%% 55,000,000%% 50,000,000%% 45,000,000%% 40,000,000%% With%Bremner%A% With%Bremner%B% With%Bremner%C% 35,000,000%% 30,000,000%% 25,000,000%% 2013% 2018% 2023% 2028% 2033% 2038% 2043% 2048% 2053% 2058% Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& 3.2. MUNICIPAL OPERATING COSTS In the County s MFIM, municipal operating costs include those costs identified in the County s operating budget, net of any transfers to reserves and capital-related expenditures (e.g. expensed capital, principal repayments on debt). Projections of municipal operating expenditures over the forecast period are based on changes in key cost drivers as well as assumptions regarding marginal costs of service delivery. For each municipal service area defined in this analysis, operating costs were disaggregated into urban and rural costs by the County. Then, for each of the urban and rural costs, the County provided the percentage of Base Year operating expenditures assumed to be fixed (or constant). 3 The remaining portion of costs are deemed to be variable, and grow with changes in the specified key driver. Population has been identified as the primary driver for all service areas. Overall, it has been assumed that approximately 55% of the County s operating costs are fixed with the remaining 45% of operating costs varying with changes to population. Therefore, as development in Bremner occurs, the variable portion of the County s urban operating costs would increase with the increase in population. 3 Marginal cost assumptions are applied to Base Year operating costs which have adjusted to reflect operating costs net of interest payments. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 8

11 In addition to the operating cost forecasts projected using the marginal cost assumptions, the operating cost projections in the analysis also include: Interest payments on existing and future capital debentures. Incremental operating costs associated with capital projects that are assumed to be over and above the marginal operating cost projections. Operating cost impacts related to capital projections (debt financing, incremental operating costs) are further discussed in the next section. Figure 5 illustrates the operating expenditure projections for the County for each community design concept. Figure 5: Operating Expenditures 525,000,000%% Opera(ng%Expenditures% 475,000,000%% 425,000,000%% 375,000,000%% With%Bremner%A% With%Bremner%B% 325,000,000%% With%Bremner%C% 275,000,000%% 225,000,000%% 2013% 2018% 2023% 2028% 2033% 2038% 2043% 2048% 2053% 2058% Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& 3.3. MUNICIPAL CAPITAL COSTS In this analysis, capital costs include those expenditures that are funded from the County s municipal operating budget and therefore exclude portions of capital projects funded from reserves or externally through grants, developer contributions and other non-municipal revenue sources. 4 The capital 4 The analysis includes total project costs and assumptions about funding. However, only those expenditures assumed to be funded from municipal operations are included in the fiscal impact analysis and results. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 9

12 expenditures included in this analysis include the principal portion of debenture payments for debt issued to fund capital projects as well as capital costs that are expensed items (Pay-As-You-Go). 5 The County initially prepared a 30-year long term capital plan (Years ) that captured the capital needs required to service the build-out of Sherwood Park. This plan was subsequently extended to 2059 to align with the forecast period of the fiscal impact analysis. The capital plan identified (1) new facility / asset aquisition needs, (2) annual capital program expenditures and (3) asset rehabilitation and replacement costs for the following municipal asset categories: Buildings, Electronic Hardware / Software, Machinery and Equipment, Program Parks & Open Space Development, Roadway Infrastructure, Utilities, and Vehicles. Selected new assets / facilities in this capital plan were identified to benefit both Sherwood Park (including Cambrian) and future growth in Bremner. The project costs were allocated to Sherwood Park and Bremner accordingly. The need for capital projects identified in the capital plan was determined using several factors: link to population growth, threshold triggers and departmental input. The capital plan identified project costs, funding assumptions and operating costs impacts associated with the capital projects. The portion of costs that would be debt financed (principal repayment) or expensed form the capital cost projections included in the fiscal impact analysis. 6 Operating cost impacts associated with the capital plan include the interest payments on debt financed projects and incremental operating cost impacts noted by the County in its capital plan. Refer to Appendix B for an overview of the County s capital plan assumptions. The County also provided information on its existing debentures. The annual principal and interest payments were calculated, with the principal repayments forming part of the capital expenditure projections and the interest payments forming part of the operating expenditure projections in the analysis. Projections of municipal capital expenditures in the County to service Bremner are based on the County s long-term capital plan (to 2059) for soft infrastructure and information provided by ISL regarding the road and utility ( hard ) infrastructure requirements to service proposed development in Bremner. Based on the population growth assumptions for each of the Bremner options, the County projected additional capital costs required to service Bremner. Table 2 summarizes the capital assumptions for new soft facility and assets to service Bremner. The County identified population thresholds that determined when the new asset would be required. In some cases, the need for the asset was based on growth in both Bremner and the rest of the County. The portion of costs allocated to Bremner was reported. The funding assumptions for the new assets was provided by the County. It was assumed that grant funding would be available for the new facilities. Park and Open Space amenities were assumed to be funded from the County s operating budget. Annual capital program expenditures included in the County s capital plan were linked to Bremner s population growth. Refer to Appendix B for an overview of the County s capital plan assumptions. 5 Interest payments are typically classified as operating expenditures and have been included in the operating cost projections. 6 Projects identified as being reserve funded in the County s capital plan represent costs that are expensed from the County s operating budget in the given year. For the purposes of this analysis, it has been assumed that these funding amounts reflect costs that are expensed or Pay-As- You-Go (PAYG). Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 10

13 Table 2: Soft Capital Asset Growth ASSET TRIGGER % OF TOTAL COSTS TO BREMNER TOTAL BREMNER COSTS ($000) (OPTIONS A & B) TOTAL BREMNER COSTS ($000) (OPTION C) FUNDING Admin Building 30K threshold 50% $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Grant Police Station department input 50% $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Grant Fire Station 2x 15K threshold $ 60,000 $ 60,000 Grant Millenium Place II 15K threshold 100K County wide 50% $ 70,000 $ 70,000 Grant Major Outdoor Recreation Facility (Soccer/Football/Baseball) 10K threshold 50% $ 5,000 $ 5,000 Grant Swimming Pool 20K threshold 50% $ 12,500 $ 12,500 Grant Park 'n' Ride (land included) Multiple threshold triggers $ 19,259 $ 20,832 Grant Transit Bus Barn Multiple threshold triggers 50% $ 15,431 $ 15,431 Grant Public Service Yard & Shop 10K threshold $10M in Josephburg 50% $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Grant Festival Place (Art / Culture / Heritage / Library) 25K threshold 50% $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Grant Community Energy department input $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Grant Enviroservice Station department input $ 4,000 $ 4,000 Grant Outdoor Rinks 10K threshold $ 1,000 $ 1,000 PAYG Skate Park 10K threshold 50% $ 750 $ 750 PAYG Water Park 20K threshold $ 3,000 $ 3,000 PAYG Dog Park 10K threshold 100% $ 300 $ 300 PAYG Picnic Shelter department input 50% $ 375 $ 375 PAYG Projections of the hard infrastructure requirements to service the Bremner design concepts were based on information provided by ISL. ISL provided asset inventories and capital costs for both off-site and on-site roads and utilities (water, wastewater, storm) infrastructure it determined was required to service Bremner. Refer to Appendix C for further detail on the hard capital assumptions for each Bremner option. Funding assumptions for off-site asset construction were determined by the County. Off-site levies were assumed to fund the water and wastewater capital projects as well as the proposed Highway Flyover. The County was assumed to be fully responsible for the At-Grade Highway / RR 222 Intersection improvements. The construction of other off-site road projects were assumed to be a shared responsibility between the County and the Province. It was assumed that all on-site asset construction would be funded by the developers. For assets that were identified to be the responsibility of the County to maintain and eventually replace, annual lifecycle and replacement costs were incorporated into the analysis. Lifecycle costs for utility capital assets were assumed to be 2% of the original construction cost each year. This captures both lifecycle and replacement. For roads, annual lifecycle costs were projected to average 1% per year and annual replacement costs were projected based on a 30 year useful life. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 11

14 Timing assumptions for the hard capital projects were estimated. Off-Site infrastructure was phased in one to four stages over the course of Bremner development. The timing of the on-site infrastructure was linked to the rate of residential development in Bremner. Figure 6 illustrates the capital expenditure projections for the County for each community design concept. Figure 6: Capital Expenditures 250,000,000"" Capital%Expenditures%% (Supported%from%Munc%Opera9ons)% 200,000,000"" 150,000,000"" With"Bremner"A" 100,000,000"" With"Bremner"B" With"Bremner"C" 50,000,000"" 0"" 2013" 2018" 2023" 2028" 2033" 2038" 2043" 2048" 2053" 2058" Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& 3.4. MUNICIPAL TRANSFERS TO RESERVES In this analysis, it has been assumed there would be no change to the Base Year transfer to reserve amounts MUNICIPAL OPERATING REVENUES Operating revenues include the following categories of revenues: Department-Specific Operating Revenues: In the analysis department-specific operating revenues are based on assumptions made regarding cost recovery rates for municipal services. For each municipal service area, the portion of operating budget costs (net of operating grants and reserve transfers) recovered from operating revenues in the BaseYear was calculated. For the purposes of the analysis, it was assumed that the County s utilities function and the Broadmoor Public Golf Course would operate 7 Any costs in the County s capital plan that are identified to be reserve funded are assumed to represent PAYG or directly expensed costs. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 12

15 on a 100% cost recovery basis, thus requiring no tax-supported funding. The calculated cost recovery rates using Base Year data were assumed to be maintained over the forecast period. Operating Grants: It has been assumed that all Base Year operating grant amounts would remain constant over the forecast period with the exception of grants reported under the Family and Community Services. The Base Year grant amounts were projected to grow with population growth. Transfers From Reserves: It has been assumed there would be no change to the Base Year transfer from reserve amounts. Other Revenues: Several other revenue items were included in the analysis: Penalties and Costs ontaxes: The revenues collected from penalties and costs on property taxes are based on a percentage of the previous year s municipal property taxes. The percentage assumed in the analysis is calculated based on the 2013 Base Year data. Return on Investment: For the purposes of the analysis, it was assumed that the Base Year interest income would remain constant over the forecast period. Concessions & Franchises: It was assumed these revenues would growth at a rate of 25% of the annual assessment growth in the County. Figure 7 illustrates total operating revenue projections, net of municipal property taxes, for the County each community design concept. Figure 7: Non-Tax Operating Revenues 280,000,000$$ Non)Tax%Opera.ng%Revenues% 260,000,000$$ 240,000,000$$ 220,000,000$$ 200,000,000$$ 180,000,000$$ 160,000,000$$ With$Bremner$A$ With$Bremner$B$ With$Bremner$C$ 140,000,000$$ 120,000,000$$ 100,000,000$$ 2013$ 2018$ 2023$ 2028$ 2033$ 2038$ 2043$ 2048$ 2053$ 2058$ Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 13

16 4. Key Findings The following table summarizes the key findings of the fiscal impact analysis of the three community design concepts. Table 3: Bremner Community Design Concepts - Key Findings LAND USE STATISTICS OPTION A OPTION B OPTION C Variation Land Area (Hectares) Residential % % % 3.6% Non-Residential % % % 25.0% Net Developable Area 1, , , % Residential D. Units 23,506 25,452 28, % Population 62,286 64,425 69, % Assessment Total Assmt ($M) Residential $ 9, % $ 10, % $ 10, % 9.5% Non-Residential $ 1, % $ 1, % $ 1, % 64.8% Total $ 10,859 $ 11,897 $ 12, % Assmt ($M) Per Ha Residential Res Ha $ $ $ % Non-Residential Non-Res Ha $ 4.59 $ 5.49 $ % Total GDA $ 5.85 $ 6.45 $ % Assmt Per Capita Residential $ 154,885 $ 159,447 $ 151, % Non-Residential $ 19,451 $ 25,210 $ 28, % Total $ 174,336 $ 184,657 $ 180, % Projected Build-Out BREMNER REVENUES & EXPENDITURES (2059) Operating Budget - Expenditures Operating $ 168,664,009 $ 171,430,738 $ 178,318, % Capital $ 183,906,663 $ 175,480,969 $ 179,119, % Total $ 352,570,671 $ 346,911,707 $ 357,437, % Operating Budget - Revenues Operating $ 110,434,165 $ 109,593,163 $ 113,003, % Grants $ 1,685,380 $ 1,744,540 $ 1,882, % Other $ 363,313 $ 396,675 $ 415, % Total $ 112,482,858 $ 111,734,378 $ 115,301, % Property Tax Requirement $ 240,087,813 $ 235,177,329 $ 242,135, % County Municipal Tax Rate - Projected Residential % Non-Residential % Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 14

17 4.1. DEVELOPMENT PARAMETERS LAND AREA Option C includes the greatest amount of land for development. The amount of net developable land to accommodate residential development varies by only 3.6% across the options. The amount of net developable land to accommodate non-residential development varies by 25% across the options. The amount of net developable land to accommodate BOTH residential and non-residential development varies by 4% across the options. The land composition ranges from 69% res / 31% non-res (Option C) to 74% res / 26% non-res (Option A) RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Option A includes the greatest amount of land for residential development. However, Option C, with its higher density development (38.5 units per net residential hectare), generates the greatest number of dwelling units, population and residential assessment. While the projected number of dwelling units at build-out varies by 20% across the options, population projections at build-out vary by 12% and total projected residential assessment at build-out varies by 9.5% across the options NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Option C includes the greatest amount of land for non-residential development, and, in turn, generates the highest non-residential assessment largely due to a greater amount of proposed Mixed Use development. Based on the different composition of non-residential assessment across the options, total projected non-residential assessment at build-out varies by 65% across the options. On a per hectare basis, Mixed Use and Business Park developments generate higher assessment yields over Big Box Retail and Light Industrial ASSESSMENT Option C generates the greatest amount of assessment ($12.56 million) with total projected assessment varying by 15.7% across the options. However, Option B generates the highest assessment on a per gross developable area basis ($6.4 million) and on a per capita basis ($184,657) OPERATING BUDGET Projected operating budget expenditures to service each Bremner growth option in 2059 vary by only 3.0% across the options. Projected operating budget revenues associated with each Bremner growth option in 2059 vary by only 3.2% across the options. Subsequently, the property tax requirement to cover the net costs of servicing each Bremner option also varies by only 3% across the options. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 15

18 4.3. OVERALL FISCAL IMPACT FINDINGS From a fiscal impact perspective, Option B provides the best fiscal impacts by generating the lowest municipal tax rates among the three options. It generates the second highest assessment, and incurs the lowest operating budget expenditures. While Option C generates the greatest assessment, it also incurs the greatest operating budget expenditures. Overall, the fiscal impacts of each Bremner option on the County's municipal operations are similar. Municipal tax rates in 2059 are projected to vary by only 2.5% across the options. Figure 8 illustrates the projected residential tax rates for the County for each community design concept. The impacts on non-residential tax rates will be similar as the Base Year municipal tax rate splits in the County are assumed to stay constant over the forecast period. Figure 8: Municipal Tax Rates (Residential) 5.000$$ 4.800$$ 4.600$$ 4.400$$ 4.200$$ Municipal%Tax%Rates%2%Residen4al% 4.000$$ 3.800$$ 3.600$$ With$Bremner$A$ With$Bremner$B$ With$Bremner$C$ 3.400$$ 3.200$$ 3.000$$ 2013$ 2018$ 2023$ 2028$ 2033$ 2038$ 2043$ 2048$ 2053$ 2058$ Year% Dev't&Scenario:&Bremner& Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 16

19 Appendix A: Bremner Community Design Concepts - Detailed Development Statistics Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 17

20 Bremner Growth Strategy Development Assumptions OPTION A OPTION B OPTION C Variation LAND USE Residential % % % 3.6% Non-Residential % % % 25.0% Roads, Utilities, SWM facilities % % % 31.2% Parkland % % % 5.2% Gross Development Area (GDA) 1, , , % Residential % % % 3.6% Non-Residential % % % 25.0% Net Developable Area 1, , , % Option C includes the greatest amount of land for development. The amount of net developable land to accommodate residential development varies by only 3.6% across the options. The amount of net developable land to accommodate non-residential development varies by 25% across the options. The amount of net developable land to accommodate BOTH residential and non-residential development varies by 4% across the options. The land composition ranges from 69% res / 31% non-res (Option C) to 74% res / 26% non-res (Option A). RESIDENTIAL Net Hectares Land % Land % Land % Low Density % Medium Density % Mixed Use % Estate Home n/a Total % D. Units Units / NRH Units / NRH Units / NRH Low Density ,284 78% ,320 48% ,872 42% 54.0% Medium Density ,872 16% ,932 35% ,780 38% 178.4% Mixed Use ,350 6% ,600 14% ,490 20% 306.7% Estate Home % % % n/a Total , , , % Population HHS HHS HHS Low Density ,098 80% ,757 52% ,529 47% 54.0% Medium Density ,757 16% ,509 35% ,166 39% 178.4% Mixed Use ,430 4% ,480 10% ,882 14% 306.7% Estate Home % ,680 3% % n/a Total , , , % Popn / nrha % Assessment ($M) Assmt / Unit Assmt / Unit Assmt / Unit Low Density 430,000 7,862 81% 430,000 5,298 52% 430,000 5,105 48% 54.0% Medium Density 362,500 1,404 15% 362,500 3,238 32% 362,500 3,908 37% 178.4% Mixed Use 282, % 282,500 1,017 10% 282,500 1,551 15% 306.7% Estate Home 0 0 0% 1,200, % 0 0 0% n/a Total 410,410 9, ,601 10, ,369 10, % Option A includes the greatest amount of land for residential development. However, Option C, with its higher density development (38.5 units per net residential hectare), generates the greatest number of dwelling units, population and residential assessment. While the projected number of dwelling units at build-out varies by 20% across the options, population projections at build-out vary by 12% and total projected residential assessment at build-out varies by 9.5% across the options. NON-RESIDENTIAL Net Hectares Land % Land % Land % Mixed Use % % % 318.2% Big Box Retail % % % n/a Business Park % % % 39.6% Light Industrial % % % 19.4% Institutional % % % 21.5% Total % Assessment ($M) Assmt / Ha Assmt / Ha Assmt / Ha Mixed Use 12,100, % 12,100, % 12,100,000 1,113 56% 318.2% Big Box Retail 5,375, % 0 0 0% 0 0 0% n/a Business Park 8,487, % 8,487, % 8,487, % 39.6% Light Industrial 3,000, % 3,000, % 3,000, % 19.4% Institutional 0 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 0% n/a Total 4,589,157 1,212 5,487,078 1,624 6,049,318 1, % Option C includes the greatest amount of land for non-residential development, and, in turn, generates the highest non-residential assessment largely due to a greater amount of proposed Mixed Use development. Based on the different composition of non-residential assessment across the options, total projected non-residential assessment at build-out varies by 65% across the options. On a per hectare basis, Mixed Use and Business Park developments generate higher assessement yields over Big Box Retail and Light Industrial. ASSESSMENT YIELDS Total ($M) Residential 9, % 10, % 10, % 9.5% Non-Residential 1, % 1, % 1, % 64.8% Total 10,859 11,897 12, % Assmt ($M) Per Ha Residential Res Ha % Non-Residential Non-Res Ha % Total GDA % Assmt Per Capita Residential 154, , , % Non-Residential 19,451 25,210 28, % Total 174, , , % Option C generates the greatest amount of assessment ($12.56 million) with total projected assessment varying by 15.7% across the options. However, Option B generates the highest assessment on a per gross developable area basis ($6.4 million) and on a per capita basis ($184,657). PROJECTED BUILD-OUT Development commences in 2020 in all three options. Annual population growth and annual non-residential land absorption similar across all options. Longer build-out timeframe for Option C due to larger population base. Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 18

21 Appendix B: Bremner Soft Capital Projections Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 19

22 Bremner Growth Strategy Future Capital - Soft Services Capital Cost Projections ($000s) Bldgs Buildings %*of*total* Cost*to* Bremner OPTIONS A&B BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2057 OPTION C BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2059 FUNDING Operating*Impacts*of* Capital*(Timing*Varies) Bldgs - A Buildings Annual Program Annual Facility Capital Lifecycle linked to popn 30,462 34,935 Reserve (PAYG) Annual Parking Lot Rehab Program linked to popn 6,015 6,844 Reserve (PAYG) Total: Bldgs - A Buildings Annual Program 36,477 41,779 ********************************************* A Bldgs - G Buildings Growth Admin Building (30K threshold) 50% 35,000 35,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Police Station dept input 50% 15,000 15,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp***2 Fire Station 2x (15K threshold) 60,000 60,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp***2 Millenium Place II (15K threshold) (100K County wide?) 50% 70,000 70,000 10%*of*Cap*Exp Grant Major Outdoor Rec Facility (Soccer/Football/Baseball) (10K threshold) 50% 5,000 5,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Swimming Pool (20K threshold) 50% 12,500 12,500 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Park'n'ride (land included) (Multiple threshold triggers) 19,259 20,832 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Transit Bus Barn (Multiple threshold triggers) 50% 15,431 15,431 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp*+*3800 Public Service Yard & Shop (10K threshold) $10M in Jburg 50% 15,000 15,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Festival Place (Art / Culture / Heritage / Library) (25K threshold) 50% 20,000 20,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Community Energy dept input 20,000 20,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Enviroservice Station dept input 4,000 4,000 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp Total: Bldgs - G Buildings Growth 291, ,763 Bldgs - R Buildings Rehab/Replacement Generic Facility Rehab (first 30 years of plan, no rehab, 10% - - replacement) Total: Bldgs - R Buildings Rehab/Replacement - - Total: Bldgs Buildings 327, ,542 HwdSft Electronic Hardware/Software HwdSft - A Electronic Hardware/Software Annual Program CORP IT Infrastructure Replacement Program linked to popn 9,765 11,199 Reserve (PAYG) UT IT Infrastructure Replacement Program linked to popn Reserve (PAYG) LIB IT Infrastructure Replacement Program linked to popn Reserve (PAYG) Total: HwdSft - A Electronic Hardware/Software Annual Program 10,854 12,462 HwdSft - G Electronic Hardware/Software Growth Fiber Optic Loop (Initial & Backup) dept input 5,000 5,000 Reserve (PAYG) Relocate Data Centre dept input Reserve (PAYG) Total: HwdSft - G Electronic Hardware/Software Growth 5,500 5,500 HwdSft - R Electronic Hardware/Software Rehab/Replacement <blank> - - Total: HwdSft - R Electronic Hardware/Software Rehab/Replacement - - HwdSft - V Electronic Hardware/Software Value Added <blank> - - Total: HwdSft - V Electronic Hardware/Software Value Added - - Total: HwdSft Electronic Hardware/Software 16,354 17,962 ME Machinery & Equipment ME - A Machinery & Equipment Annual Program LIB Annual Collection Replacement linked to popn 7,228 8,538 Reserve (PAYG) UT Annual Water Meter / Radio Frequency Program linked to popn 7,623 8,671 Reserve (PAYG) RPC Annual Recreation Equipment Replacement Program linked to popn 1,660 1,904 Reserve (PAYG) SCES Annual Equipment Replacement Program linked to popn 2,224 2,571 Reserve (PAYG) Total: ME - A Machinery & Equipment Annual Program 18,735 21,684 ME - G Machinery & Equipment Growth <blank> - - Total: ME - G Machinery & Equipment Growth - - ME - R Machinery & Equipment Rehab/Replacement Generric Replacement (Defibs/GIS/Radio Etc.) dept input 15,000 15,000 Reserve (PAYG) Total: ME - R Machinery & Equipment Rehab/Replacement 15,000 15,000 Total: ME Machinery & Equipment 33,735 36,684 Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 20

23 Bremner Growth Strategy Future Capital - Soft Services Capital Cost Projections ($000s) POSD Program Parks & Open Space Development %*of*total* Cost*to* Bremner OPTIONS A&B BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2057 OPTION C BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2059 FUNDING Operating*Impacts*of* Capital*(Timing*Varies) POSD - A Parks & Open Space Development Annual Program Annual Parks Infrastructure Lifecycle ( Per Capita) linked to popn 7,767 8,907 Reserve (PAYG) <blank> - - Total: POSD - A Parks & Open Space Development Annual Program 7,767 8,907 POSD - G Parks & Open Space Development Growth Outdoor Rinks (10K threshold) 1,000 1,000 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp Skate Park (10K threshold) 50% Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp Water Park (20K threshold) 3,000 3,000 Reserve (PAYG) Dog Park (10K threshold) 100% Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp Picnic Shelter dept input 50% Reserve (PAYG) Total: POSD - G Parks & Open Space Development Growth 5,425 5,425 POSD - R Parks & Open Space Development Rehab/Replacement <blank> - - Total: POSD - R Parks & Open Space Development Rehab/Replacement - - POSD - V Parks & Open Space Development Value Added <blank> - - Total: POSD - V Parks & Open Space Development Value Added - - Total: POSD Program Parks & Open Space Development 13,192 14,332 RI Roadway Infrastructure RI - A Roadway Infrastructure Annual Program Annual Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Improvements linked to popn 10,269 11,681 Reserve (PAYG) Annual Traffic Signal / Intersection Replacements based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Annual Residential Rehab Program based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Annual Asphalt Trail Rehab Program linked to popn 4,856 5,524 Reserve (PAYG) Annual Arterial Road Rehab Program based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Total: RI - A Roadway Infrastructure Annual Program 15,126 17,205 RI - DL Roadway Infrastructure Developer Levy based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: RI - DL Roadway Infrastructure Developer Levy - - RI - G Roadway Infrastructure Growth based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: RI - G Roadway Infrastructure Growth - - RI - R Roadway Infrastructure Rehab/Replacement based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: RI - R Roadway Infrastructure Rehab/Replacement - - RI - V Roadway Infrastructure Value Added - - Total: RI - V Roadway Infrastructure Value Added - - Total: RI Roadway Infrastructure 15,126 17,205 UI Utilities UI - A Utilities Infrastructure Annual Program Annual Corrosion Control Program based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Annual Hydrant / Valve Replacement Program based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Annual Sump Pump Collector Retrofit based on ISL servicing assumptions Reserve (PAYG) Total: UI - A Utilities Infrastructure Annual Program - - UI - DL Utilities Infrastructure Developer Levy based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: UI - DL Utilities Infrastructure Developer Levy - - UI - G Utilities Infrastructure Growth EnviroService 4,000 4,000 Debt 10%*of*Cap*Exp Total: UI - G Utilities Infrastructure Growth 4,000 4,000 UI - R Utilities Infrastructure Rehab/Replacement based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: UI - R Utilities Infrastructure Rehab/Replacement - - UI - V Utilities Infrastructure Value Added based on ISL servicing assumptions - - Total: UI - V Utilities Infrastructure Value Added - - Total: UI Utilities 4,000 4,000 Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 21

24 Bremner Growth Strategy Future Capital - Soft Services Capital Cost Projections ($000s) Veh Vehicles %*of*total* Cost*to* Bremner OPTIONS A&B BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2057 OPTION C BREMNER*A* Total*Cap*Exp* 2014A2059 FUNDING Operating*Impacts*of* Capital*(Timing*Varies) Veh - A Vehicles Annual Program Annual Fleet Replacement Program linked to popn 74,982 85,287 Reserve (PAYG) Annual Transit Coach Replacements Program linked to popn 25,545 29,056 Reserve (PAYG) Annual UT Fleet Replacement linked to popn 21,230 24,148 Reserve (PAYG) Total: Veh - A Vehicles Annual Program 121, ,492 Veh - G Vehicles Growth Transit Coaches dept input 20,950 20,950 Grant 10%*of*Cap*Exp - - EDT linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp CPC linked to popn 2,057 2,340 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp PDS linked to popn 2,851 3,243 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp TAS linked to popn 233, ,538 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp SCES linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp FCS linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp SCT linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp RPC linked to popn 84,068 95,621 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp BPGC linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp RCMP linked to popn 15,348 17,457 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp CORP linked to popn 19,955 22,698 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp SEN ADMIN linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp ELECTED linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp FISCAL linked to popn - - Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp UTILITIES linked to popn 58,134 66,123 Reserve (PAYG) 10%*of*Cap*Exp Total: Veh - G Vehicles Growth 436, ,969 Veh - R Vehicles Rehab/Replacement - - Total: Veh - R Vehicles Rehab/Replacement - - Veh - V Vehicles Value Added - - Total: Veh - V Vehicles Value Added - - Total: Veh Vehicles 558, ,461 Total Expense 968,648 1,057,186 Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 22

25 Appendix C: Bremner Hard Capital Projections: Off-Site and On-Site Road & Utility Infrastructure Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 23

26 Bremner Growth Strategy Future Capital - Road and Utility Servicing DRAFT&'&March&2014 Option'A Units Unit&Cost Cost Construction&Funding Maintenance&/&Future&Replacement Total&County&Costs Off*Site %&Province %&County %&Off>Site& Levies Total Responsibility Annual&LCC& Rate&(Rehab) Useful&Life&(Yrs)& (Replacement) Construction& (Debt)& 2014>2057 LCC/Repl&(PAYG)& 2014>2057 Water Off>Site &&&&&&&& 45,000, % 0.0% County 2.0% incl.&in&lcc 0 &&&&&& 22,950,000 Wastewater Off>Site &&&&&&&& 34,000, % 0.0% County 2.0% incl.&in&lcc 0 &&&&&& 17,340,000 Roads At>Grade&Hwy&/&RR&222&Intersection 4 each &&&&&& 3,000,000 &&&&&&&& 12,000, % 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Province 12,000,000 Service&Interchange 3 each &&&& 60,000,000 &&&&& 180,000, % 75.0% 0.0% 100.0% Province 135,000,000 Systems&Interchange&(Hwy&16/21) 1 each && 250,000,000 &&&&& 250,000, % 50.0% 0.0% 100.0% Province 125,000,000 Highway&Flyover 3 each &&&& 25,000,000 &&&&&&&& 75,000, % 0.0% County 1.0% 30 0 &&&&&& 74,750,000 Additional&Hwy&Lanes 41 lane&km &&&&&& 3,000,000 &&&&& 123,000, % 75.0% 0.0% 100.0% Province 92,250,000 &&&&& 640,000,000 &&&& 364,250,000 &&&&&& 74,750,000 &&&&& 719,000,000 Phasing(of(construction(subject(to(review. &&&& 364,250,000 &&&& 115,040,000 On*Site Water Distribution&Mains &&&&&&&& 359 km &&&&&& 1,321, ,270,000 %& Developer Total Responsibility &&&&& Water Reservoir && 24,457 m3 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1,151 &&&&&&&& 28,148,050 &&&&&502,418,050 Annual&LCC& Rate&(Rehab) Useful&Life&(Yrs)& (Replacement) Construction& (Debt)& 2014>2057 LCC/Repl&(PAYG)& 2014>2057 Wastewater Gravity&Sewers &&&&&&&& 359 km &&&&&& 1,244,039 &&&&& 446,610,000 Wastewater Liftstations n/a each Wastewater Forcemains n/a m &&&&&446,610,000 Storm Storm&Sewers &&&&&&&& 359 km &&&&&& 1,950,000 &&&&& 700,050,000 Storm Storm&Pond&Area&(PUL) &&&&&&&& 110 ha Storm Storm&Ponds&Construction &&&&&&&&&& 14 #&ponds (((((((( 59,683,336 Storm Storm(Ponds(Earthworks (((((( (51,473,793) Storm Storm&Ponds&Construction&>&NET &&&&&&&&&& 586,396 &&&&&&&&&& 8,209,543 Storm Storm&Grit&Separator n/a Storm Outfall&Structure&&&Pipe &&&&&&&&&& 14 #&ponds &&&&&&&&&& 348,562 &&&&&&&&&& 4,879,863 Storm Lift&Stations n/a &&&&&713,139,406 Total'Utilities '' 1,662,167,456 Phasing(of(construction(subject(to(review. County 2.0% incl.&in&lcc 0 522,997,049 lanes Roads Arterial&Roads&(6&lane,&Divided) 6 7 km &&&& 13,500,000 &&&&&&&& 94,500,000 Arterial&Roads&(4&lane,&Divided) 6 34 km &&&& 11,500,000 &&&&& 391,000,000 Collector&Roads&(Undivided) 4 64 km &&&&&& 6,700,000 &&&&& 428,800,000 Local&Roads&(Undivided) km &&&&&& 5,000,000 && 1,280,000,000 Traffic&Signals 85 each &&&&&&&&&& 425,000 &&&&&&&& 36,125,000 Total'Roads '' 2,230,425,000 Phasing(of(construction(subject(to(review. County 1.0% ,520,562,199 Bremner Growth Management Strategy: FIA of Three Community Design Concepts - Final Report (September 2014) 24