Joint Small Arms Capability Assessment Analytical Procedure

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Cuthbert Phillips
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1 Joint Small rms Capability ssessment nalytical Procedure 2006 National Defense Industrial ssociation s Joint Services Small rms Systems nnual Symposium John Edwards ay 16, 2006

2 Presentation Outline 1. JCIDS to JSC (Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System to Joint Small rms Capabilities ) 2. Description for: a. Functional rea b. Functional Needs c. Functional Solution 3. JSC Deliverables 4. JSC Conclusions 5. JSC Summary

3 Joint Service Small rms Capability ssessment Background: Capabilities ssessment by the JSSP pplication Working Group (WG) to support the Joint and Individual Service Requirements Generation Process. Sponsored by the Joint Service Small rms Synchronization Team Follows the guidelines, as appropriate, of: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction CJCSI E (11 ay 2005) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff anual Guidance Top Down Capability Need Identification Process National Security Strategy CONOPS DOD Strategic Guidance Family of Joint Future Concepts Figure -1 CJCSI E CJCS B (11 ay 2005) JSSP ISSION: HRONIZE REQUIREENTS CROSS SERVICES 1978 OSD, review 2004 rmy E ssessment and Reconciliation & Recommendations Capability Based ssessment (F, FN, FS, PI) JCIDS Recommendations Capability Needs DOTLPF Changes DCR Implementation Science & Technology Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution cquisition Experimentation

JSC Process NSS/NS JPG JOpsC JOCs Joint Functional Concepts Force pplication

Needs Tasks, Conditions, & Standards IN FN DoD CJCSI/CJCS 3170.

Solicitation for Ideas FS Process Capability Gaps Prioritized Initial Capabilities

4 JSC Process NSS/NS JPG JOpsC JOCs Joint Functional Concepts Force pplication Protection UJTLS Service Task Lists Lessons learned F Functional rea Functional Needs Tasks, Conditions, & Standards IN FN DoD CJCSI/CJCS Four-Step Process Current & Programmed Joint Capabilities NSTC & Govt Solicitation for Ideas FS Process Capability Gaps Prioritized Initial Capabilities ICD JSC Process Post Independent PI R E P O R T Integrated DOTLPF pproach I PIP FS non -- D O T L P F FS Functional Solution

5 Function rea Universal Joint Task Listing Service (unique) Task Listing Lessons Learned Tools Tasks provide an ctivity Network structure ulti-voting/pareto technique by SE JSSP WG

6 JSC Content Format From Functional rea US rmy US arine Corps US Navy US ir Force US Coast Guard SOCO 7 Tasks of 27 Sub Tasks of 72 Gap etrics Transmit & Receive Neutralize Suppress Breach Personal Defense void Detection Far Term id Term Near Term Tag & ark Each survey respondent weights the relative importance of three Time Frames (Near, id and Far Term)

7 JSC Process NSS/NS JPG JOpsC JOCs Joint Functional Concepts Force pplication Protection UJTLS Service Task Lists Lessons learned F Functional rea Functional Needs Tasks, Conditions, & Standards IN FN DoD CJCSI/CJCS Four-Step Process Current & Programmed Joint Capabilities NSTC & Govt Solicitation for Ideas FS Process Capability Gaps Prioritized Initial Capabilities ICD JSC Process Post Independent PI R E P O R T Integrated DOTLPF pproach I PIP FS non -- D O T L P F FS Functional Solution

8 Function Needs Inputs The Gaps in Context; Battlespace Depth Task Comparison 50m 100m 300m 600m 3000m Transmit & Receive Personal Defense Neutralize Suppress Breach 80% of Combat Engagement void Detection Tag & ark Conditions Universal e.g., day, night, all-weather Shooter / Target Posture from defilade Battlespace Depth: CQB 0-50m; Close 0-100m; id m; Far m Standards Respects 3 time periods near-, mid-, and far-term Graduated probabilities e.g., Probability of 50%, 70% and 100%

9 Function Needs Tool - Check Sheet Comparison of Task-Subtask/Timeframe Current Capability Defined Capability NO GP Exists When Current Capability > Defined Capability GP Exists When Current Capability < Defined Capability

10 JSC Gap Priority Survey Review How Gap Prioritization via JSSP pplication Working Group Survey over web 21 total participants (13 rmy, 4 USC, 1 ea USN, USF, USCG & SOCO) Survey methods ulti Criteria Decision (CD) via pair-wise rating (nalytical Hierarchy Process) d Hoc value rating (9 highest)

11 Functional Needs Gap Priority Techniques CD ulti Criteria Decision Pair wise comparisons in an nalytical Hierarchy Process The importance of one Task is compared relative to the importance of another Scored numerically (example below) Transmit & Receive Data Neutralize Target ore important Equal ore important d Hoc rating No filtered hierarchy Each gap evaluated on its own merit gut-feeling prioritization Gap 1 Gap 72 Less important ore important

12 JSC Process NSS/NS JPG JOpsC JOCs Joint Functional Concepts Force pplication Protection UJTLS Service Task Lists Lessons learned F Functional rea Functional Needs Tasks, Conditions, & Standards IN FN DoD CJCSI/CJCS Four-Step Process Current & Programmed Joint Capabilities NSTC & Govt Solicitation for Ideas FS Process Capability Gaps Prioritized Initial Capabilities ICD JSC Process Post Independent PI R E P O R T Integrated DOTLPF pproach I PIP FS non -- D O T L P F FS Functional Solution

13 of ateriel pproaches General Rules ateriel pproaches pre-mapped and readjusted per WG. Context In relation to Gap etrics (72 Gap etrics) Timeframe JCIDS criteria % of attainment of Gap Technical aturity (TRL) Technical Risk Supportability (adapted per survivability) ffordability Operational Risk DOTLPF impacts FS is an operationally based assessment of all potential DOTLPF and policy approaches For I do not describe specific systems for use, rather desired capability, i.e. UV with a bomb. of ateriel pproaches Review

14 D o c u m e n t n a l y s i s D o c u m e n t N S S n a l y s i s N S S C apabilities- Based ssessm ent O verview Functional rea C apabilities- Based ssessm ent O verview S P G J O p s C S P G J O C s J O p s C J o in t F u n c t io n a l J O C so n c e p t s J o in t F u n c t io n a l C o n c e p t s Functional rea IN P U T S F IN P U T S F Functional JCD Needs Current & Sum F & FN Functional Programmed JCD Prioritize gaps Needs FN IN P U T SCurrent Joint & Sum F & FN Programmed C a p a b ilitie s Prioritize Joint gaps FN IN P U T S Joint C a p a b ilitie s C a p a b ilitie s Joint C a p a b ility C a p a b ilitie s Gaps FS Process C a p a b ility In itia l C a p a b ilitie s Integrated DOTLPF non Gaps FS Process Optional pproach - - In itia l D C a p a b ilitie O IC D s Integrated DOTLPF non T Optional pproach - - D PI Prioritized I IC D OR O aterial T L Prioritized Solutions PI P OR Post I aterial F DOTLPF Change Independent L PIP FS Solutions Recommendation P Post F FS DOTLPF Change Independent PIP FS Recommendation F o r c e p p lic a tio n F o r cpe r o te c t io n p p lic a tio n P r o te c t io n U J T L S S e r v ic e T a s k L is ts U J T LeS s s o n s le a r n e d S e r v ic e T a s k L is ts L e s s o n s le a r n e d ore ore Ideas Ideas For For Consideration of ateriel pproaches Tasks, Conditions, Tasks, & Conditions, Standards & Standards IN IN of of ateriel pproaches Functional Solution Respect Prioritization of the Cap Gap Categories Functional Solution Respect Prioritization of the Cap Gap Categories FS 13 1 Examine Ideas Relevant to Prioritized Cap Gap Categories 13 1 Examine Ideas Relevant to Prioritized Cap Gap Categories SUB-STEP SUB-STEP ONE--SSESSENT ONE--SSESSENT Operational Operational Worth: Worth: itigation itigation Worth Worth and and Operational Operational Suitability Suitability Programmatic Programmatic Worth: Worth: Tech Tech Risk, Risk, Tech Tech aturity, aturity, Supportability, Supportability, ffordability ffordability SUB-STEP SUB-STEP TWO--NLYSIS TWO--NLYSIS Operational Operational Worth Worth and and then then Programmatic Programmatic Worth Worth Comparative Comparative of of pproaches pproaches Results Results Presentation Presentation IN IN Pool of 65 Ideas Pool of 65 Ideas Cap Cap Gap Gap Prioritization & etrics etrics pproaches pproaches Of Of Clear Clear erit erit of ateriel pproaches Review pproaches pproaches Of Of Significant Significant erit erit Capability Capability Gap Gap Categories Categories With With No No pparent pparent pproaches pproaches

15 JSC Change Recommendations Deliverables Establishes Joint Capability Requirements Opportunities/Basis for Support for the following; Doctrine Change Requirement Initial Capabilities s Critical Capabilities Critical Production Further focus on Ideas that effect Functional Characteristics Durability / Reliability / Weight/ etc. Provides reference to S&T investment via Evolve Technology for New Soldier Weapon Systems anage and Execute the Technology Base DTOs (Defense Technology Objectives) TOs rmy Technology Objectives Consider Ideas with Potential for Increased Lethality High Risk, really S&T ventures Recommendations/Conclusion

16 JSC Conclusions 1. Joint Service Harmonized document 2. Guide to Capabilities the Services desire in the future. 3. Defines gaps for technology base and supports acquisition activities 4. Requires updating periodically Overall Recommendation Next Step Staffing by executive agent rmy Coincident Review by ll Services for Joint awareness at Functional Control Board Recommendations/Conclusion

17 Products JSC Summary JSSP-sponsored : Conducted in accordance with CJCS JCIDS guidance JSIS Splinter Effort JSC F & FN JSC FS The Benefits: Form the Basis for Future requirements Details where investment is needed Recommendations/Conclusion

THE UNITED STATES NAVAL WAR COLLEGE

THE UNITED STATES NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT Theater Security Decision Making Course PLANNING PROGRAMMING BUDGETING AND EXECUTION (PPBE) WORKBOOK by Professor Sean C. Sullivan