3rd ICP 2011 Technical Advisory Group Meeting at the OECD, Paris 10, 11 June 2010

Transcription

1 3rd ICP 2011 Technical Advisory Group Meeting at the OECD, Paris 10, 11 June 2010

2 Some Background Situation in 2005 Emphasis was on price collection Belated attention to National Accounts Different estimates for GDP and population Lessons learnt Need to establish process to determine GDP and population for the ICP Improved editing procedures required Ensure consistency between expenditures and survey prices 2

3 Some Background (cont d) Proposed Procedures for 2011 A step by step approach Tables/questionnaires were developed to guide the countries Testing in Oman, Lebanon, Kenya, Ethiopia, Hong Kong 3

4 Questionnaire on Estimation of BHs for the 2005 ICP Objectives Recommended tasks Set 2005 as starting point for the 2011 estimation Ensure consistency between 2005 and 2011 Establish how expenditures on basic headings were estimated for ICP 2005 Document the 2005 compilation Describe the sources for each Show how data from original sources were adjusted for time; coverage; or definitions 4

5 Questionnaire on Estimation of BHs for the 2005 ICP (cont d) Details required Mission Outcomes Values obtained from the national accounts Original data source used to estimate expenditure Estimated expenditure in year of data source Adjustments made to data from original data source Brief explanation of adjustments Expenditure reported for ICP 2005 Details available in 4 of the 5 countries Time consuming 5

6 Commodity Flow Matrix Description If all products were included It shows how the supply of a product is distributed among intermediate and final uses Valuation at purchasers prices To be completed for products identified as important in relevant BH in any individual country GDP could be derived: either as total supply less intermediate consumption or as total final expenditures plus net exports 6

7 Commodity Flow Matrix (cont d) Basic Equalities Total supply at purchasers' prices = domestic production at basic prices + imports at c.i.f. values + trade and transport margins + taxes on products = Total use at purchasers prices Total use at purchasers' prices = Intermediate consumption + household final consumption expenditure + government final consumption expenditure + gross fixed capital formation + change in inventories and net acquisitions of valuables + exports (f.o.b.) Mission Outcomes Full support from all 5 countries Support for further development of SUTs but as long-term goal 7

8 Objectives Recommended Tasks Important Products Improve and streamline GDP breakdown Propose items to the regional list of specifications Consistency between expenditures and prices Better compile commodity flows Describe the sources Estimate quantities, prices and total expenditures for each of these products even roughly 8

9 Important Products (cont d) Details required Data sources used for average prices; quantities; values Indicators to extrapolate forward from latest benchmark Mission Outcomes All countries could identify important products Values could be identified in most cases Quantities and hence average prices not available 9

10 Price Formation Objectives Description Provide more details on important products Consistency between expenditures and prices Better compile commodity flows Important products (domestically-produced and imported) Household final cons exp and GFCF Designed to systematically adjust values recorded at basic prices to the ICPrequired basis of purchasers' prices All individual steps required are shown 10

11 Price Formation (cont d) Basic Equalities D o m e s t i c I m p o r t e d Basic price (ex-factory price) + taxes on products excluding invoiced VAT less subsidies on products equals Producers price + VAT not deductible by the purchaser + separately invoiced transport charges + wholesalers and retailers margins + installation costs (capital formation only) equals Purchasers price Basic price (c.i.f. unit value) + customs duties + taxes on products excluding invoiced VAT less subsidies on products equals Producers price + VAT not deductible by the purchaser + separately invoiced transport + wholesalers and retailers margins + installation costs (capital formation only) equals Purchasers price 11

12 Price Formation (cont d) Mission Outcomes None of the 5 countries has data on margins, transport costs or installation costs for individual products Suggest using this form only in countries that currently have commodity-flow approach or SUTs 12

13 Check on real expenditure evolution Objective Description Aim is to provide some basic edits by comparing the per capita notional real expenditures in 2011 with those in 2005 To be completed by the Regional Offices Data Expenditure in national currency Average price Notional real expenditure Population Notional real expenditure per capita 13

14 Check on real expenditure evolution (cont d) Notional real expenditures for 2011 Calculate a price for a BH as geometric average of the prices provided by a country for products listed under that BH These BH prices are divided into reported expenditures in national currency to obtain the BH notional real expenditures for 2011 Finally, calculate per capita notional real expenditures for both years and change [in%] from 2005 year to

15 Check on real expenditure evolution (cont d) Mission Outcomes Change can be two-fold: prices [difference in products or price escalation] actual change in per capita real expenditures Suggest splitting the table into 2 parts Prices: to assist in editing the prices collected N.A.: Focus on BHs that behave significantly differently from related BHs 15

16 SNA93 Compliance Check Elements affecting the level of GDP Is government defence expenditure on fixed assets that can be used for civilian purposes included in GCF? Is CoFC included on all government fixed assets (roads, dams etc)? Is all mineral exploration (successful and unsuccessful) capitalized? Is expenditure on computer software purchases included in GCF and on software development included in output? 16

17 SNA93 Compliance Check Elements affecting the level of GDP Mission Outcomes Is expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in GCF and on their development included in output? Is expenditure on valuables included in GCF? This form will show whether a country uses an early or recent version of SNA It was tested only in Hong Kong and it showed that Hong Kong is using SNA93 To be sent to all countries where there is a need to confirm their SNA version 17

18 Data Validation 1. Compare GDP and major aggregates with data in the annual national accounts questionnaire 2. Sum of components equals corresponding aggregates 3. Signs of potentially negative expenditures 4. Completeness checks 5. [Non] Allocation of FISIM 6. Are net expenditures abroad allocated across products within HFCE 7. Verify price dynamics from production and imports to final uses for important products 18

19 Data Validation (cont d) 8. Compare average price changes from 2005 to 2011 for each basic heading with overall price changes in the country over this period 9. Compute per capita expenditures for each BH 10. Compare shares of GDP contributed by each BH 11. Compare per capita real expenditures for each BH 12.Variations in per capita real expenditures for each BH between countries in each cluster 13. Consistency of PLIs across BHs within a country 14.Variation of PLIs within BHs between the countries in each cluster 19

20 Timetable Major aggregates for latest year possible J N J N BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible J Values for all BHs N J Preliminary data for 2010 J Major aggregates for 2011 J O M BH values for 2011 J O M M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November 20

21 THANK YOU 21