The 2008 SNA: Impact on GDP and implementation status

Transcription

1 The 2008 SNA: Impact on GDP and implementation status Seminar Component of Asia-Pacific Economic Statistics Week 2-4 May 2016 Bangkok, Thailand United Nations Statistics Division

2 Outline of presentation Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Regional and country experiences How to determine compliance with 2008 SNA Status of 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA implementation in Member States Annexes 2

3 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP 3

4 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Capitalization of research and development (R&D) Change The activity of R&D is no longer treated as ancillary Expenditure on R&D is treated as capital formation Impact R&D is re-classified from intermediate consumption to gross fixed capital formation. This changes GDP by the same amount Consumption of R&D fixed capital stock is added to non-market output: increase GDP 4

5 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Output for own final use by households and corporations is valued with a return to capital Change Applies to valuation of market producers only Not applicable to nonmarket producers like government and NPISH Impact Output valued by cost increases by an imputed value of return to capital (Need total stock of assets for the calculation of return to capital) GDP increases by the same amount of imputed value 5

6 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Capitalization of weapons systems Change Expenditure on military weapons systems (vehicles, warships, submarines, military aircraft, tanks, missile carriers, launchers, etc.) is capitalized Change in inventories (bullets, bombs, etc.) Impact Reclassification of expenditure on military equipment from final consumption to gross capital formation: This does not change GDP Adding consumption of military fixed capital stock to government output: increase GDP 6

7 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Method for calculating FISIM refined Change Impact FISIM applies only to loans and deposits and only when those loans and deposits are provided by or deposited with financial institutions Loans from own funds are also included FISIM to be allocated between all users Implicit service charge of money lenders recognized Depending on the structure of financial instruments, output of FISIM could increase For example, loans made from own funds will increase FISIM FISIM allocated to final demand and exports will increase GDP Implicit service charge of money lenders will increase GDP 7

8 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Method for calculating FISIM refined Rising consumer loans validates 2008 SNA recommendation to remove option not to allocate FISIM to all users 8

9 Overview of 2008 SNA changes affecting GDP Unfunded pension funds Change There is a cost to administering pension schemes, including nonautonomous and unfunded ones Output to be determined using sum of costs and consumed by employees holding the pension entitlements Impact Change household consumption and exports Change GDP 9

10 Regional and country experiences 10

11 Regional and country experiences 62 Member States have switched over to 2008 SNA This section presents an overview of the impact for Eurostat members OECD members Australia Indonesia Republic of Korea Singapore 11

12 Regional and country experiences Date of implementation of 2008 SNA Eurostat OECD Australia Indonesia Republic of Korea Singapore Date of implementation 17-Oct-14 Various dates 08-Dec Feb Mar May-14 12

13 Regional and country experiences General approach Exercise generally comprised Adoption of 2008 SNA recommendations Capitalization of R&D and weapons systems Calculation and allocation of FISIM Calculation of insurance output Etc. Adoption of new classification standards ISIC Rev. 4 Statistical improvements New or improved data sources More recent census and survey data Update of base or reference year 13

14 Regional and country experiences Eurostat members impact on nominal GDP Total impact on EU GDP level % Methodological changes (ESA2010) 2.27% + Statistical improvements 1.40% 14

15 Regional and country experiences Eurostat members impact on nominal GDP Methodological changes (ESA2010) Impact on EU GDP Research and development 1.86% 2 Expenditure on weapon systems 0.17% 3 Inexpensive tools for common operations 0.07% 4 Government, public/private sector delineation 0.06% 5 Employers' pension schemes 0.06% 6 Other methodological changes 0.05% T Total 2.27% 15

16 Regional and country experiences Eurostat members impact on nominal GDP Statistical improvements Impact on EU GDP New or improved data sources 0.45% 2 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: illegal activities 3 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: other 0.38% 0.37% 4 Other statistical changes 0.20% T Total 1.40% 16

17 Regional and country experiences Eurostat members impact nominal GDP ( billions) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) Average annual difference in nominal GDP between 1997 and 2013 = 3.7% 17

18 Regional and country experiences Eurostat members impact on real GDP growth (% change) EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) Change in annual GDP growth rates over the years was around +/-0.1 percentage points 18

19 Regional and country experiences OECD members impact on nominal GDP in 2010 Average impact of 2008 SNA is to 3.1%-points Average impact of statistical benchmark revision is 1.7%-points 19

20 Regional and country experiences OECD members impact on real GDP growth Real growth rates are generally affected to a much lesser extent 20

21 Regional and country experiences Australia impact on nominal GDP Impact of all changes to the level of nominal GDP in % Of which: Due to SNA % Made up of: R & D capitalization 1.3% Weapons systems capitalization 0.3% Not related to SNA % Made up of: Orchard and vineyard capitalization 0.1% Improvements to data sources and industry components including the finance and insurance industry Split not available 21

22 Regional and country experiences Australia impact on real GDP growth 22

23 Regional and country experiences Indonesia impact on nominal GDP Nominal GDP in 2010 (2010 base year) increased by 6.47% compared to 2000 GDP series 23

24 Regional and country experiences Indonesia impact on real GDP growth 24

25 Regional and country experiences Republic of Korea impact on nominal GDP from capitalizing R&D and weapons systems (Trillion won, %) Regional GDP After rebasement (a) 1, , , , ,377.0 (NB: Korea rebased reference year from 2005 to 2010 at the same time as implementing 2008 SNA, in 2014) Before rebasement (b) 1, , , , ,275.0 Base-up(a/b) Increase of GDP by R&D capitalization Amount (c) Increase rate (c/b) Amount (d) Increase of GDP by weapons system Increase rate (d/b) Impact of capitalization of weapons systems was not as significant as for R&D 25

26 Regional and country experiences Republic of Korea impact on real GDP growth Annual growth rate of real GDP over the 1971 to 2012 period was 7.4%, up by 0.3 percentage points 26

27 Regional and country experiences Singapore impact on nominal GDP from capitalizing R&D Year Revision (%)

28 Regional and country experiences Singapore impact on nominal GDP from all changes Year Before (S$Million) (a) After (S$Million) (b) Percentage change [(b)-(a)]/(a)

29 Regional and country experiences Singapore impact on real GDP growth from all changes Year Before (%) After (%)

30 How to determine compliance with 2008 SNA Countries compliance with 2008 SNA can be monitored in terms of Scope of national accounts they compile Extent of important concepts in 2008 SNA they have adopted The scope of national accounts countries compile can be assessed using A set of six milestones supplemented by Three data sets describing (a) the minimum set of accounts that need to be compiled (MRDS); (b) a recommended set of accounts; and (c) a desired set of accounts The milestones and data sets are available in annexes 1 and 2 Information to determine the scope comes from annual national accounts questionnaire submitted to UNSD 30

31 How to determine compliance with 2008 SNA The extent to which important concepts in the 2008 SNA affecting the level of GDP, gross capital formation and gross national income have been implemented is assessed using a compliance questionnaire, supplemented by country reports Compliance questionnaire is available in annex 3 31

32 Status of 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA implementation in Member States Scope of national accounts Total number of countries Six or more tables MRDS Milestone Level Seven tables 1 or higher 2 UN Member States (68%) 101 (52%) 176 (91%) 157 (81%) ESCAP (63%) 20 (41%) 41 (84%) 37 (76%) East and NE Asia 5 3 (60%) 3 (60%) 4 (80%) 4 (80%) Southeast Asia 11 9 (82%) 2 (18%) 11 (100%) 10 (91%) South and Southwest Asia 10 7 (70%) 4 (40%) 10 (100%) 9 (90%) North and Central Asia 9 6 (67%) 6 (67%) 8 (89%) 7 (78%) Pacific 14 6 (43%) 5 (36%) 8 (57%) 7 (50%) 32

33 Status of 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA implementation in Member States Number of countries submitting the tables of the MRDS Total number of countries GDPe C 1.1 GDPe K 1.2 GDPp C 2.1 / 2.4 GDPp K 2.2 / 2.5 GDPp detail 2.3 / 2.6 IEA Total 1.3 / 4.1 IEA RoW 4.2 UN Member States ESCAP East and NE Asia Southeast Asia South and Southwest Asia North and Central Asia Pacific

34 Status of 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA implementation in Member States Per cent of countries submitting the MRDS UN Member States ESCAP Member States

35 Status of 1968, 1993 and 2008 SNA implementation in Member States Total 1968 SNA compliant 1993 SNA compliant 2008 SNA compliant UN Member States ESCAP East and NE Asia 5 1* 2 2 Southeast Asia South and Southwest Asia North and Central Asia Pacific Member States have implemented the 2008 SNA Some Member States have opted to introduce certain aspects of 2008 SNA in a gradual implementation of the 2008 SNA 12% of Member States still use 1968 SNA DPRK has not submitted any data, thus regarded as 1968 SNA compliant. 35

36 Questions Has your country implemented the 2008 SNA? If yes When did your country make the changeover? Which 2008 SNA changes were implemented? What other statistical improvements were introduced? How far back did you backcast your GDP data? What was the impact on nominal GDP? What was the impact on real GDP growth? If no When does your country intend to implement to the 2008 SNA? What 2008 SNA changes do you intend to implement? What challenges do you foresee when implementing the 2008 SNA? 36

37 Annexes 37

38 Annex 1 - Milestones Implementation milestones Pre-SNA phases Milestone 1. Basic indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) - Final expenditures on GDP current and constant prices - GDP by industry at current and constant prices Milestone 2. Gross national income and other primary indicators - For rest of the world, external account of primary incomes and current transfers - Capital and financial accounts Complementary data systems Basic data on production, turnover, consumption, investment, exports and imports Consumer and producer price indices Balance of payments goods and services account Monetary survey statistics Supply and use table worksheets Balance of payments: current, capital and financial accounts Government finance statistics (GFS) transaction accounts Capital stock statistics International investment position GFS transactions and stocks in assets and liabilities Monetary and financial statistics SNA-related data and development Quarterly national accounts Regional accounts Satellite accounts for environment and other satellite accounts Input-output analysis 38

39 Annex 1 - Milestones Implementation milestones Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts: first step: for all institutional sectors Production account for general government Generation of income, Allocation of primary income, Secondary distribution income, Use of disposable income, Capital and financial accounts Milestone 4. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 1: for all institutional sectors Generation of income Allocation of primary income Secondary distribution of income Use of disposable income Capital accounts Milestone 5. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 2: for all institutional sectors Financial account Milestone 6. Institutional sector accounts: final step: for all institutional sectors Other changes in assets account Balance sheet Complementary data systems SNA-related data and development Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 Same as for milestone 2 39

40 Annex 2 Data sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts GDP, value added and employment Nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or by expenditure components Minimum requirement Minimum requirement 1.1 Expenditures of the GDP in current prices Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 1.2 Expenditures of the GDP in constant prices Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 2.1 Value added and GDP in current prices by industry Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 2.2 Value added and GDP in constant prices by industry Minimum requirement Optional Minimum Requirement 2.3 Value-added components by industry, current prices Employment by industry Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Recommended Recommended 40

41 Annex 2 Data sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts Integrated accounts and tables, including integrated satellite accounts 1.3 / 4.1 Accounts for the total economy (until net lending) Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Supply and use table Recommended Desirable 5.1 Cross-classification of output/value added by industries and sectors Tourism accounts, environmental accounts and other socio-economic accounts Recommended * 41

42 Annex 2 Data sets NAQ Table Number Purpose classification of expenditures General government final consumption (and other) expenditure by purpose in current prices General government final consumption expenditure by purpose at constant prices Individual consumption (and other) expenditures by purpose in current prices Individual consumption expenditures by purpose at constant prices Annual Accounts Recommended * Recommended Purpose classification of intermediate and final consumption across all sectors * * Quarterly Accounts 42

43 Annex 2 Data sets NAQ Table Number Annual Accounts Quarterly Accounts Institutional sector accounts (until net lending) 4.2 Rest of the world accounts (until net lending) Non-financial corporations sector accounts (until net lending) Financial corporations accounts (until net lending) General government sector accounts (until net lending) 4.6 Household sector accounts (until net lending) 4.7 Non-profit institutions serving households sector accounts (until net lending) Financial accounts Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Minimum requirement Recommended Recommended Recommended Recommended Recommended Financial accounts for all sectors Recommended Desirable Balance sheets and other changes in asset accounts Balance sheets, revaluation and other volume changes in asset accounts for all sectors Recommended Desirable 43

44 Annex 3 Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: Yes No Partly na Elements affecting the level of GDP Gross capital formation (GCF)/output 1. the entire defence expenditure on fixed assets, including military weapon systems, incurred by general government included in the GCF? 2. consumption of fixed capital on all general government fixed assets (airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of construction structures including military weapon systems)? 3. the expenditure on Research and Development included in output and GCF? 4. all (successful and unsuccessful) mineral exploration expenditure capitalized? 5. purchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year included in GCF? 6. expenditure on software development on own account expected to be used for more than a year and for sale included in GCF and output? 7. the expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year, whether purchased on the market or developed in-house, included in the GCF and output? 44

45 Annex 3 Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: Yes No Partly na 8. expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF and on their development included in output? 9. expenditure on valuables included in the GCF? 10. the natural growth of cultivated forests included in output and GCF? 11. the output of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) calculated on loans and deposits only using interest rates on deposits and loans and a reference rate of interest? 12. the output of FISIM allocated to users? 13. the production of all goods that are produced by households whether for sale or not included in the output? 14. the activity of the own-account money lenders included in output? 15. the value of output of goods and services produced by households and corporations for own final use, when estimated on cost basis, include a return to fixed capital? 16. the output of non-life insurance services estimated using adjusted claims and/or adjusted premium supplements? 45

46 Annex 3 Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: Yes No Partly na 17. the output of the Central Bank separately for financial intermediation services, monetary policy services and supervisory services overseeing financial corporations? 18. the unit undertaking purely ancillary activity, located in a geographically separate location from establishments it serves, as a separate establishment? 19. the output of the activity of non-autonomous pension funds and unfunded pension schemes? Volume estimates 20. volumes estimated using a chaining procedure on an annual basis? Social contributions/insurance 21. unfunded social contributions (for sickness, unemployment, retirement etc.) by enterprises imputed as compensation of employees and included as contributions to social insurance? 22. non-life insurance premiums include premium supplements? 23. life insurance premiums include premium supplements? 24. claims related to catastrophic losses as capital transfers? 46

47 Annex 3 Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire for the 2008 SNA Question: Does your country s reported national accounts data currently include estimates for: Elements affecting GNI 25. reinvested earnings included in the rest of the world account? 26. foreign workers remittances excluded from GNI? Elements not affecting the level of GDP/GNI Valuation of output 27.a output and value added measured at basic prices? A 27.b output and value added measured at producers prices? A 27.c value added measured at factor cost? a (not part of the 2008 SNA) 28. the goods for processing recorded on a net basis? Final consumption 29. government final consumption expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption? Yes No Partly na 47

48 if you have any questions on the 2008 SNA or economic statistics 48

49 Thank you 49