The Lurking Crisis of Bank Deposits
|
|
- Polly Rogers
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Lurking Crisis of Bank Deposits Feb 01, 2016 The Italian banking crisis has moved to its next inevitable stage. European institutions have started to struggle with the question of whether and how to protect deposits in Italian banks. Italy adopted new EU-mandated policies regarding bail-ins in January. The rules for these bail-ins require a bank s shareholders and debt holders to absorb losses before taxpayer money can be used to assist a bank. Deposits of more than 100,000 euros ($109,000) could be affected, but those containing less than 100,000 euros are protected by European deposit guarantees and cannot be touched. As a result, individuals who hold what they believe to be relatively low-risk investments, as well as small businesses that keep more than 100,000 euros on hand, could be at risk. As Italy grapples with the new policies, there is a dispute within the eurozone over who should ultimately be responsible for guaranteeing deposits that, under European laws, are protected even in the case of a bail-in. This is a familiar scenario: the EU once again discovers its original dictum would lead to disaster, so it changes its course to find a solution that is acceptable to all members. In other words, we are now at the point of paralysis. But this time it is paralysis over an issue with catastrophic implications. We can make a distinction between investments and putting money in the bank. Investments are understood to carry with them both opportunities and risks. Putting your money into the bank is not expected to carry either. The benefit of having an individual bank account is to safeguard money. If banks cannot guarantee this safety, then there is little point in putting money in a bank in the first place. In fact, withdrawing funds from an unsound bank becomes a matter of urgency because if enough depositors become uneasy and withdraw their money, the last man to the door may be wiped out. For the middle class, insecurity in banks is an existential crisis. Wealthy individuals and corporations have experience in managing risks. They diversify not only among banks, but among countries or among asset classes. They can be hurt, but rarely completely devastated. Although the middle class may have money in more than one bank, most risk-management tools are both out of their reach and outside their experience. For the middle class in Euro-American culture, banks are where those assets that are accumulated over a lifetime are stored and kept secure. Once they are seen as insecure, various stratagems emerge, from buying homes or gold, to buying foreign currency, to getting the money out of the country. When this occurs on a massive scale, the result is a contraction of lending by banks, bank failure, and depression. But the most important result is the loss of confidence in social and political institutions by the middle class. We are seeing this happen now in some export-oriented countries and some European states. There is a social contract between the middle class and society as a whole, where the middle class agrees to work hard and save their money. In return public institutions guarantee that the fruits of their labor will be secure. If they were to lose their deposits, it would be a financial catastrophe. But the violation of the implicit social contract would lead to political
2 catastrophe. This is why US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his first fireside chat, focused on the need to restore confidence in institutions such as banks. Stripping the middle class of their assets or making them afraid this might happen leads to massive political unrest. The fear of loss of deposits is stalking countries besides Italy. As exporters across the globe experience reduced revenues and as the European Union s financial troubles continue, governments in East and Central Asia and across Europe are growing worried about the public s confidence in their banking systems. Reduced confidence would not only have immediate financial consequences, but could also have far-reaching geopolitical implications as the ability of governments to manage growing crises diminishes. Deposit insurance is at the core of government efforts to maintain confidence in banking systems. What sets deposit guarantees apart from other government tools for stabilizing financial systems is that these schemes are a direct pledge to each deposit holder to safeguard some of their assets. The massive crisis that the US financial system faced in the early 1930s led to the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which protects deposits if an FDIC-insured bank or savings association fails. The FDIC is backed by the US government and can insure up to $250,000 in deposits for individuals. Deposit insurance schemes around the globe differ in their design and coverage, but fundamentally they are designed to maintain public confidence in the system. Both the economic crisis facing exporters and the eurozone s ongoing financial difficulties are increasing the significance of deposit insurance. For example, in Azerbaijan, a major energy exporter, deteriorating economic conditions have already led to protests throughout the country. Azerbaijan s government announced on Jan. 28 that the country s central bank may provide financial assistance to the Azerbaijan Deposit Insurance Fund (ADIF) if it is unable to pay compensations to depositors. The statement came after the central bank revoked licenses of six Azerbaijani banks and was likely intended to alleviate fears following their closure. The central bank s pledge to provide extra funding for the ADIF signals that the regime is worried that public confidence in the banking sector could be undermined. Should confidence erode, the out come could be not only a run on the banks and significant disruptions to the country s financial system, but also an erosion of the regime s position. Russia is also experiencing concerns over the public s confidence levels. It is no coincidence that the Russian government took initiatives to help boost guarantees for bank deposits in December 2014, as low world oil prices and sanctions were beginning to have a significant impact on Russia s economy (particularly on the value of its currency). The Kremlin moved to allocate extra funds to the country s Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) and increase the deposit insurance coverage limit for individuals to 1.4 million rubles, the equivalent of about $18,300 under the current exchange rate. Russia s DIA is a busy entity: over the past two and a half years, the country s central bank has shut down over 150 banks, with many others under crisis watch. In fact, on Jan. 29, Russia's Finance Ministry announced that it is considering requiring bail-ins of large depositors. While
3 the move is designed to help protect the overall stability of the system, it indicates that the ministry expects more significant banks to face bankruptcy. With reduced energy revenues intensifying Russia s economic problems, the importance of deposit insurance as a tool for maintaining public confidence, and therefore limiting social unrest, will grow. Concern over internal stability also played a role in China s decision (in May 2015) to introduce deposit insurance for the country s banking system. Large bank failures are mostly unheard of in China, as the government generally steps in to assist banks and investors and implicitly guarantees deposits, especially at bigger banks. Politically, Chinese decision-makers feel that they cannot allow banks to fail, as such a move would further undermine confidence in the leadership and China s economic system as a whole. Nevertheless, the Chinese government recognized that by implicitly making guarantees, they are also failing to discourage banks and investors from making risky choices. China s decision to introduce deposit insurance, therefore, was designed in part to highlight that there is a limit to government assistance and to encourage better investment decisions. While China s system differs greatly from its Western counterparts, the Chinese leadership also aims to use deposit insurance to boost confidence and stability in its banking sector. In Europe, as in the US, deposit guarantees have become a part of the social contract between the people and the authorities. But the question of which authorities are ultimately responsible for guaranteeing the deposits and thus for safeguarding financial stability has become significant. The future of deposit guarantees is one of the main points of contention between Germany and the eurozone s other members. Currently, there are EU-wide regulations on deposit insurance, but those are implemented on a national level. In November 2015, the European Commission officially presented its proposal for a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS). Under the plan, a European fund would be created, financed directly by bank contributions, and adjusted for risk. At first, the European fund would only be used if national-level deposit insurance funds exhausted their own resources but, over time, it would take on a greater role and fully insure all national deposit guarantees by Germany opposes the scheme on the grounds that risk within the eurozone has to be reduced before such a risk-sharing plan could be viable. Fundamentally, for Berlin, the EDIS would represent a financial obligation to assist eurozone countries with troubled financial systems. Countries such as Italy support the plan because it would provide a much stronger layer of security for depositors than simply relying on national-level insurance schemes. Deposit insurance is thus one of the elements of Germany s geopolitical dilemma: on one hand, Berlin wants to safeguard the stability of the eurozone, but on the other hand, it would like to minimize its own financial contributions to other eurozone countries. We saw a drama of this sort unfold in Cyprus in Cypriot banks were failing, and the Europeans, led by the Germans, refused to bail them out. The result was that banks were closed for several days and parts of deposits exceeding 100,000 euros were seized. The Germans argued
4 that the Cypriot banks were being used by Russian money launderers, hence they deserved to fail because of imprudence and Russian corruption. However, the Cypriot banks held deposits for entities that contributed significantly to the economy including the hotels at the center of the tourism industry and British retirees who had saved a few hundred thousand euros in a lifetime of work and retired to Cyprus. The latter were devastated. The former could not pay their employees for weeks, and many never recovered from the crisis. What had been an uncertain proposition putting their money in a bank in Cyprus became a suicidal position. Cyprus has still not recovered. Now Italy (which represents about 11% of the EU s GDP) is also finding itself in a banking crisis. Its banks are linked to all of Europe s banks that have bought Italian paper. It is possible for the Italian government alone to bail out the banks a move not allowed under current EU rules. But at the end of the day, Italy does not own the printing press that can help monetize the banks because that belongs to the European Central Bank (ECB). The political reality is that the ECB is heavily influenced by the Germans. In other words, the Germans control the monetary supply, but they intend to push the responsibility of solving the banking problem to the Italians. This could lead to a crisis similar to the one experienced in Greece but on a much larger scale. Essentially the Germans are demanding that, if Italian banks fail, a form of the Cyprus solution be implemented in Italy. The potential consequences for the European financial system are hard to calculate, but at the moment, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reassessing her political position, which has eroded since the onset of the refugee crisis. The international dimension of the banking system is also at a critical stage. As the exporters crises deepen, the ability to maintain comprehensive deposit guarantee schemes is key for countries like Azerbaijan and Russia. Two factors to watch are deposit levels and capital flight. Russia has struggled with high levels of capital flight, and further outflows could indicate that efforts to promote confidence in the system are failing. At the same time, negotiations over the future of the planned EDIS will be a key indicator, both for the stability of Southern European banking systems and the relationship between Germany and the rest of the eurozone. From Russia to China and the European Union, public confidence in banking systems is a factor that affects not only financial stability, but the survival of regimes and political institutions. There is no international financial institution that can possibly deal with all these potential failures and certainly none that can deal with the social consequences. When we look at Eurasia, we see banking problems that need to be solved. The solution has three layers: first, to maintain a prudent banking system; second, to provide a reliable insurance system for deposits; third, to provide security for deposits through the government, which ultimately has the resources and an interest in political and social stability. But if prudence has already collapsed and if the insurance system is incapable of coping with the flood, only the third layer remains. However, if it is beyond the state s will or capacity to act effectively, simply put, there will be hell to pay.
5
The Economy of Italy: Banks on the Edge
The Economy of Italy: Banks on the Edge Oct. 17, 2016 A visual breakdown of Italy s mounting financial crisis. 1 / 8 2 / 8 Since the 2008 global financial crisis, European economies have been struggling
More informationCyprus Proposal. March 27 th, 2013, 5:00PM EST
Cyprus Proposal March 27 th, 2013, 5:00PM EST Cyprus Proposal The paramount questions remain: 1) What is the end-game solution for the Euro? 2) How will the Euro survive after the Cyprus solution? 3) What
More information: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 8. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II
320.326: Monetary Economics and the European Union Lecture 8 Instructor: Prof Robert Hill The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II De Grauwe Chapters 3, 4, 5 1 1. Countries in Trouble in the Eurozone
More informationHistory of Recession. The Last Recession
Financial Instability is it a curse or a boom? Is it like that reality check which we need to bring us back to the path of inclusive growth and development or is it a result of Greed and No fear, is it
More informationECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 April 2010 Prepared by: Sema Gençay ÇAPANOĞLU (scapanoglu@ikv.org.tr) THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE Greece is struggling with the most serious
More informationFree Market Road Show European Stability Mechanism ESM
Free Market Road Show European Stability Mechanism ESM April 27 th 2012 Assoc. Prof. Dr. Barbara Kolm Austrian Economics Center A-1010 Wien, Jasomirgottstr.3/4 office@austriancenter.com 1 Structure An
More informationEuro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas
Euro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas After being asked a number of questions about the bank and the Eurozone, we have decided to publish the answers
More informationRanking Country Page. Category 1: Countries with positive CEP Default Index and positive NTE. 1 Estonia 1. 2 Luxembourg 2.
Overview: Single Results of Euro Countries Ranking Country Page Category 1: Countries with positive CEP Default Index and positive NTE 1 Estonia 1 2 Luxembourg 2 3 Germany 3 4 Netherlands 4 5 Austria 5
More informationEurozone. Outlook for. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast. Summer edition 2012
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition 2012 Outlook for Published in collaboration with Andy Baldwin Head of Financial Services Europe, Middle East, India and Africa With key national
More information4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade
24 4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade 4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade Current account deficit in 2014 was lower than the one realised in 2013 In the period January- November 2014, current
More informationEurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook
Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook December 11, 2015 by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management Six years after the financial crisis, the Eurozone continues to face major challenges
More informationCauses of the Great Depression
History 271 Devine Fall 2015 Causes of the Great Depression I. The International Economic Situation The U.S. emerges from World War I as the Engine of Prosperity it is the leading creditor nation and is
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus
More informationBanking union: restoring financial stability in the Eurozone
EUROPEAN COMMISSION MEMO Brussels, 15 April 2014 Banking union: restoring financial stability in the Eurozone 1. Banking union in a nutshell Since the crisis started in 2008, the European Commission has
More informationThe Risks Facing European Banks
The Risks Facing European Banks February 29, 2016 This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at the OECD in Paris.
More informationCan the Eurozone Reform?
Can the Eurozone Reform? by Economist Conference on: Governance and regional arteries for Growth: Europe s momentum Greece s impetus, Wyndham Loutraki Poseidon Resort, Greece, May 10-11, 2018 The Greek
More informationIs China the New France?
Is China the New France? August 6, 2013 by Marianne Brunet Imagine a country that grows its economy by greatly devaluing against the reserve currency to develop a strong export sector. As the country becomes
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationThe main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis
The main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis Guido Tabellini Bocconi University and CEPR What are the main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis? This column argues
More information1 World Economy. about 0.5% for the full year Its GDP in 2012 is forecast to grow by 2 3%.
1 World Economy The short-term outlook on the Finnish forest industry s exports markets is overshadowed by uncertainty and a new setback for growth in the world economy. GDP growth in the world economy
More informationCIE Economics A-level
CIE Economics A-level Topic 4: The Macroeconomy f) Money supply (theory) Notes Quantity theory of money (MV = PT) The Quantity Theory of Money states that there is inflation if the money supply increases
More informationQuestion Of the 27 countries in the EU, how many have still to implement the Basel II (yes, Basel 2!) banking reforms agreed in 2004?
Quarterly Quiz 2011 Quarter 4 October 2011 1 Bank Regulation In the 1980s new regulations were brought in covering all banks that were active internationally. The reason for the new regulations was to
More informationGlobalization. International Financial (Chap. 8) and Monetary (Chap. 9) Relations
Globalization International Financial (Chap. 8) and Monetary (Chap. 9) Relations The Puzzle of Finance n Every year, approximately $5 trillion is invested abroad. Why is so much money invested in foreign
More informationConsequences of present Euro area monetary policy on savings and capital wealth formation. 14 November Parliamentary evening in Brussels
Jacques de Larosière Consequences of present Euro area monetary policy on savings and capital wealth formation 14 November 2016 Parliamentary evening in Brussels As we all know, the ECB has engaged in
More informationImpact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy
Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy Kovid Kumar Gupta 1 kovid.gupta@gmail.com Abstract This study aims at exploring the reasons behind the Greece debt crisis that emerged in the 21 st century
More informationSpeech by the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus at the Annual General Meeting of the Shareholders 20 November 2014
Speech by the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus at the Annual General Meeting of the Shareholders 20 November 2014 Dear shareholders, dear guests It is with particular pleasure that
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationThe future of the euro zone
http://www.oklein.fr/politique-economique/the-future-of-the-euro-zone/ The future of the euro zone By Olivier Klein Some background to begin with. The European Monetary System (EMS) was put in place to
More informationOUTLOOK. What s in store for investors in 2019?
OUTLOOK What s in store for investors in 2019? The key phrase for 2018 has been volatility. The prices of stocks and bonds have fluctuated significantly as investors tried to digest a range of political
More informationInternational Environment Economics for Business (IEEB)
International Environment Economics for Business (IEEB) Sergio Vergalli sergio.vergalli@unibs.it Vergalli - Lezione 1 The European Currency Crisis (1992-1993) Presented By: Garvey Ngo Nancy Ramirez Background
More informationStable forint exchange rate persists
Stable forint exchange rate persists According to data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), in December 2015 consumer prices rose on average by 0.9 percent year-on-year. In the
More informationMulti-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics
Multi-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics January 11, 2017 by Paul O Connor of Henderson Global Investors Paul O Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, reviews 2016 s lessons, and details
More informationEU steel market situation and outlook. Key challenges
70th Session of the OECD Steel Committee Paris, 12 13 May 2011 EU steel market situation and outlook http://www.eurofer.org/index.php/eng/issues-positions/economic-development-steel-market Key challenges
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationUK Vote to Leave and Its Implication
UK Vote to Leave and Its Implication 27 June 2016 The result for EU Referendum The EU Referendum has been completed on 23 Jun 2016 (according to BBC News, 17.4 million vote leave [51.9%] while 16.1 million
More information17 FAQs regarding Cyprus' bail-out/bail-in
17 FAQs regarding Cyprus' bail-out/bail-in 1. How big is Cyprus? Cyprus is an island in the Mediterranean see, located north of Israel and south of Turkey. Its size is around 9,250 square kilometres. It
More informationWill Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies?
Will Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies? Presented by: Howard Archer Chief European & U.K. Economist IHS Global Insight European Fiscal Stimulus Limited? Europeans
More informationGains for all: A proposal for a common euro bond Paul De Grauwe Wim Moesen. University of Leuven
Gains for all: A proposal for a common euro bond Paul De Grauwe Wim Moesen University of Leuven Until the eruption of the credit crisis in August 2007 financial markets were gripped by a flight to risk.
More informationThe IMF s Unmet Challenges By Barry Eichengreen and Ngaire Woods, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2015 Introduction There is an important
The IMF s Unmet Challenges By Barry Eichengreen and Ngaire Woods, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2015 Introduction There is an important role for the IMF to play in solving information, commitment
More informationGeneral Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2013
General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2013 Economics ECON4 Unit 4 The National and International Economy Wednesday 30 January 2013 1.30 pm to 3.30 pm For this paper you must
More informationChurch of Ireland Pensions Fund Report 2010 THE CHURCH OF IRELAND CLERGY PENSIONS FUND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PAGE 1 YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PAGE 1 YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009 165 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 2009 PAGE 2 CONTENTS PAGE TRUSTEE S REPORT 3 REPORT OF THE INVESTMENT MANAGER 6 REPORT OF THE INDEPENDENT AUDITORS 9 ACCOUNTING
More informationECON30150 (International Money and Banking) MIDTERM EXAM. March 6, 2017
ECON30150 (International Money and Banking) MIDTERM EXAM March 6, 2017 There are 50 questions in this exam. You have one hour to complete it. All questions have only one correct answer. There is no negative
More informationEast Asia Crisis of Econ October 8, Team 5 Bryan Darch Svend Egholm Paramdeep Singh Sarah Zullo
East Asia Crisis of 1997 Econ 7920 October 8, 2008 Team 5 Bryan Darch Svend Egholm Paramdeep Singh Sarah Zullo The East Asian currency crisis of 1997 caused severe distress for the countries of East Asia
More informationThe Lender of Last Resort in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand?
The Lender of Last Resort in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand? Karl Whelan University College Dublin Presentation at University College Cork March 9, 2018 Plan for this Talk Lender of last resort Rationale
More informationInternational Money and Banking: 17. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Crisis
International Money and Banking: 17. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Crisis Karl Whelan School of Economics, UCD Spring 2018 Karl Whelan (UCD) Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Spring 2018 1 / 31 Part
More informationEconomics Higher level Paper 2
Economics Higher level Paper 2 Tuesday 5 May 2015 (morning) 1 hour 30 minutes Instructions to candidates Do not open this examination paper until instructed to do so. You are not permitted access to any
More informationDeposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency
Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency An accelerating flight of deposits from banks in four European countries is jeopardizing the renewal of economic growth and undermining a main tenet
More informationPIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks September 26, 2013 by Andrew Balls of PIMCO In the following interview, Andrew Balls, managing director and head of European portfolio
More informationInterview with Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Published in Politis (Cyprus), 8 November 2015
Interview with Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Published in Politis (Cyprus), 8 November 2015 Politis: The main goal of the programme is to restore confidence in Cyprus. Is this mission complete?
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany
More informationEurozone crisis and its impact on Belarus
Eurozone crisis and its impact on Belarus Seminar at the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus Robert Kirchner Minsk, 8 October 2012 The Euro crisis = An ugly combination of public debt, banking
More informationRestructuring the EU banking system
Restructuring the EU banking system Memorandum 9 April 2013, Brussels Arlene McCarthy Member of the European Parliament, rapporteur on reforming the structure of the EU banking sector The culture has not
More informationThe Budget Deficit of the United States and the Current Account Deficits of the Eurozone Latin Countries
(Ackermann) Remarks at dinner honoring Joe Ackermann October 25, 2012 Martin Feldstein The Budget Deficit of the United States and the Current Account Deficits of the Eurozone Latin Countries Thank you.
More informationTHE FUTURE FOR DEPOSIT INSURANCE. David G Mayes University of Auckland. Abstract
THE FUTURE FOR DEPOSIT INSURANCE David G Mayes University of Auckland Paper prepared for the 15 th Melbourne Money and Finance Conference 31 May 1 June 2010 Abstract This paper considers some major issues
More information1 World Economy. Value of Finnish Forest Industry Exports Fell by Almost a Quarter in 2009
1 World Economy The recovery in the world economy that began during 2009 has started to slow since spring 2010 as stocks are replenished and government stimulus packages are gradually brought to an end.
More informationThe NewsLine. Grexit not yet averted. July 1, 2015 ECONOMIC RESEARCH
} MACROECONOMICS FINANCIAL MARKETS ECONOMIC POLICY SECTORS GREECE Grexit not yet averted Dr. Michael Heise Phone +49.89.3800-16143 michael.heise@allianz.com Allianz SE https://www.allianz.com/economic-research/en
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views -September
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views -September 2018 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Growing uncertainties stemming from trade disputes initiated by US are going to linger on
More informationMonetary Integration
Monetary Integration By Michael Möhnle Table of Contents 1. 6-Stages of Economic Integration 2. International Monetary Integration - Bretton Woods 3. European Monetary Integration 4. European (Economic
More informationEuropean Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility
European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility A client posed the question a few years ago during one of the many rolling sovereign credit crises then roiling the Eurozone as to when the whole thing
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public
More informationPrices PLATINUM. Platinum 2010 Interim Review page 29
PRICES 1,8 PLATINUM Daily Platinum Prices in 21 (US$ per oz) 1,75 5 1,7 1,65 1,6 1,55 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 1,5 1,45 London pm fixings After rising steadily throughout 29, the price of platinum continued to
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy. Scenario Analysis Autumn 2012
Global Investment Strategy Scenario Analysis Autumn 212 Introduction 2 The combination of bullish investors, low market volatility and low financial stress suggests that risk assets are vulnerable to a
More informationBanking Crises Throughout the World
18 Appendix 2 to Chapter Banking Crises Throughout the World In this appendix, we examine in more detail many of the banking crisis episodes listed in Table 18.2 that took place in other countries. We
More informationRisks and Opportunities in the Global Economy. Joseph E. S+glitz Adana, Turkey January 2015
Risks and Opportunities in the Global Economy Joseph E. S+glitz Adana, Turkey January 2015 2015: A Year of Unusual risks Oil: How significant will be the fall- out from the large fall in oil prices leading?
More informationY669 International Political Economy. September 21, 2010
Y669 International Political Economy September 21, 2010 What is an exchange rate? The price of a currency expressed in terms of other currencies or gold. What the International Monetary System Has to Do
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 19 July 2016 EU Bailout Rarely have we been through such a period when events have moved so fast that markets have inevitably been left in the wake. Critically, the
More informationWritten Statement of China by. CHEN Yulu. Deputy Governor of the People s Bank of China. At the Annual Meeting of the EBRD in Jordan
CHINA AM011e-X 1 Written Statement of China by CHEN Yulu Deputy Governor of the People s Bank of China At the Annual Meeting of the EBRD in Jordan First of all, I would like to extend sincere thanks to
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More information"The Continuing Problem of China's Currency Management Policy"
"The Continuing Problem of China's Currency Management Policy" Written testimony of Dean Baker Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) For the hearing on "Assessing the U.S. Rebalance
More informationDEFICITS AND DEBT Macroeconomics in Context (Goodwin, et al.)
Chapter 16 DEFICITS AND DEBT Macroeconomics in Context (Goodwin, et al.) Chapter Overview This chapter expands on the material from Chapter 10, from a less theoretical and more applied perspective. It
More informationCan the Euro Survive?
Can the Euro Survive? AED/IS 4540 International Commerce and the World Economy Professor Sheldon sheldon.1@osu.edu Sovereign Debt Crisis Market participants tend to focus on yield spread between country
More informationGlobal Financial Crisis. Econ 690 Spring 2019
Global Financial Crisis Econ 690 Spring 2019 1 Timeline of Global Financial Crisis 2002-2007 US real estate prices rise mid-2007 Mortgage loan defaults rise, some financial institutions have trouble, recession
More informationMNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB. Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015
MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015 MNI Deutsche Börse Group 1 Market Data + Services We advance markets Service lines
More informationWaMu CASE STUDY (Executive Summary) (1) High Risk Lending: Case Study of Washington Mutual Bank
WaMu CASE STUDY (Executive Summary) (1) High Risk Lending: Case Study of Washington Mutual Bank The first chapter focuses on how high risk mortgage lending contributed to the financial crisis, using as
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to
More informationThe Financial System: Opportunities and Dangers
CHAPTER 20 : Opportunities and Dangers Modified for ECON 2204 by Bob Murphy 2016 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved IN THIS CHAPTER, YOU WILL LEARN: the functions a healthy financial system performs
More informationManaging the Fragility of the Eurozone. Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics
Managing the Fragility of the Eurozone Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics The causes of the crisis in the Eurozone Fragility of the system Asymmetric shocks that have led to imbalances Interaction
More informationDesign Failures in the Eurozone. Can they be fixed? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics
Design Failures in the Eurozone. Can they be fixed? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Eurozone s design failures: in a nutshell 1. Endogenous dynamics of booms and busts endemic in capitalism continued
More information19 th Year of Publication. A monthly publication from South Indian Bank.
To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community... Open YAccess www.sib.co.in ho2099@sib.co.in A monthly publication from South Indian Bank 19 th Year of Publication Experience
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European
More informationGreece and the Euro. Harris Dellas, University of Bern. Abstract
Greece and the Euro Harris Dellas, University of Bern Abstract The recent debt crisis in the EU has revived interest in the costs and benefits of membership in a currency union for a country like Greece
More informationEuropean Debt Crisis. Lessons Learned and Paths for the Future
European Debt Crisis Lessons Learned and Paths for the Future Eurozone (ish) 19 member states 7 additional to become members upon convergence criteria Putting the Cart Before the Horse The creation of
More informationThe usage of surveys to overrun data gaps: Bank Indonesia s experience
The usage of surveys to overrun data gaps: Bank Indonesia s experience Hendy Sulistiowaty and Ari Nopianti I. Introduction The global economic recession that triggered in late 2007 in the United States
More informationThe impact of bank resolution and bail-in mechanisms on bank management.
The impact of bank resolution and bail-in mechanisms on bank management. January 2014 By Prof Dr Freddy Van den Spiegel (Vlerick Business School and VUB) freddy.vandenspiegel@vlerick.com Bank resolution,
More informationCyprus Financial Assistance Programme Memoranda signed with the EU and the International Monetary Fund: Q&A regarding the financial sector
Cyprus Financial Assistance Programme Memoranda signed with the EU and the International Monetary Fund: Q&A regarding the financial sector Part A: Key policy questions Q1: What were the reasons that Cyprus
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationThe impact of the economic crisis upon Cyprus
Scientific Papers (www.scientificpapers.org) Journal of Business Management and Applied Economics The impact of the economic crisis upon Cyprus Authors: Elena Huma, Institute of Doctoral Studies, Academy
More informationItaly: fundamentals are the compass amid political twists
Italy: fundamentals are the compass amid political twists Eric Brard Head of Fixed Income Annalisa USARDI, CFA Senior Economist With the contribution of: Giuseppina Marinotti Investment Insights Unit The
More informationChapter 6. Government Influence on Exchange Rates. Lecture Outline
Chapter 6 Government Influence on Exchange Rates Lecture Outline Exchange Rate Systems Fixed Exchange Rate System Freely Floating Exchange Rate System Managed Float Exchange Rate System Pegged Exchange
More informationFinancial Crises, Stabilization, and Deficits
PART IV FURTHER MACROECONOMICS ISSUES Financial Crises, Stabilization, and Deficits 15 CHAPTER OUTLINE The Stock Market, the Housing Market, and Financial Crises Stocks and Bonds Determining the Price
More informationTeetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011
More informationGlobal Financial Crisis and China s Countermeasures
Global Financial Crisis and China s Countermeasures Qin Xiao The year 2008 will go down in history as a once-in-a-century financial tsunami. This year, as the crisis spreads globally, the impact has been
More informationInternational Spring Makers Conference, Wire 2016, Düsseldorf. Name of country 1
Name of country 1 Spring Manufacturing Sector in Finland - Number of manufacturers - Cold coiled springs 6 - Hot coiled springs 1 - Total turnover approx. 18 million - Employees approx. 90 Main challenges
More informationGold vs. Bonds: Another Look
PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING BMG ARTICLES Real Gold vs. A Promise of Gold 1 Gold vs. Bonds: Another Look July 2015 By Nick Barisheff I n the past, we have highlighted the advantages of using gold rather than
More informationOctober 25, Non-performing loans as a percent of total loans. Eurozone: Credit Growth
October 2, 213 Northern Trust Global Economic Research South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Carl R. Tannenbaum Chief Economist 312.7.882 ct92@ntrs.com Asha G. Bangalore Economist 312..16
More informationb. Financial innovation and/or financial liberalization (the elimination of restrictions on financial markets) can cause financial firms to go on a
Financial Crises This lecture begins by examining the features of a financial crisis. It then describes the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and the resulting changes in financial regulations.
More informationInvestment Report The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan
Investment Report 2011 The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan Investment Report 2011 This information does not constitute investment advice
More informationHOUSEHOLD DEBT AND FINANCIAL STABILITY
JANA KASK HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND FINANCIAL STABILITY Jana Kask Introduction Household debt has been soaring in Estonia in recent years. This has been underpinned by easy access to loans due to low interest
More informationThe fiscal adjustment after the crisis in Argentina
65 The fiscal adjustment after the 2001-02 crisis in Argentina 1 Mario Damill, Roberto Frenkel, and Martín Rapetti After the crisis of the convertibility regime, Argentina experienced a significant adjustment
More information