European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Transcription

1 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 14 th Annual Syndications and Co-financiers Meeting London 6 th March

2 14 th Annual Syndications and Co-financiers Meeting 6 th March 2012, London EBRD s Loan Syndication Activities Lorenz Jorgensen Director, Head of Loan Syndications EBRD 2

3 Agenda The global setting The EBRD region EBRD s syndication activities Outlook 3

4 Some recent headlines The good Relationships under scrutiny but bank liquidity remains for IG borrowers Euroweek, 18 Nov 2011 The bad and the ugly Eastern Europe has most to fear from banks retreat Financial Times, 15 Nov 2011 CEE to be battered most by deleveraging Euroweek, 18 Nov 2011 Banks face a perfect storm that is getting worse Financial Times, 25 Jan 2012 Gulf opens in loan markets as lenders discriminate Euroweek, 2 March

5 How to translate these headlines? In CEE/CIS, Russia has least to fear Large state-owned banking sector Strong government finances Corporates benefit from this Russia can support its banks and even encourage them to invest abroad Financial Times, 23 Nov 2011 Pressure from eurozone bank head offices and home regulators to repatriate or retain capital at the centre Although Vienna 2.0 aims to address this If traditional large lenders retrench, economic disruption is inevitable The minor players will be hit hardest 5

6 Global loan volumes ,600 1,400 1,200 Gradual increase from 3Q10, falling in 2H11 3,000 2,500 USD bn 1, ,000 1,500 1,000 No of deals Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 0 Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific No of deals 6

7 Global loan volumes : Refinancing as % of total USD bn 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 High quality, large volume borrowers continuously seeking to pre-fund requirements Refinancing as % of volume Total loan volume Refinancing as % of total volume 7

8 Average pricing by rating Spreads continue to fall for the best names Weaker names face rising spreads Basis points Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 As BBBs BBs Bs 8

9 European loans vs bonds volumes Loans suffered in the crisis, but have pulled ahead again USD trn Loans Bonds 9

10 Agenda The global setting The EBRD region EBRD s syndication activities Outlook 10

11 Loan volumes in key EBRD COOs, USD bn Russia Turkey Kazakh Poland Ukraine Other 11

12 Effects of the crisis on Russian banks Global financial volatility Reduced access to wholesale funding Capital flight Liquidity squeeze (partly offset by higher deposits) Slower credit growth Increased spreads Tighter collateral 12

13 Russian banks syndicated loan volumes, Private banks, 2007: 34 Private banks, 2011: USD mm Number of deals State/muni-owned Other Number of deals 0 13

14 Bank borrower dynamics State-owned banks are the major drivers of volume (no surprise) Private banks increasing their share from a low in 2009 But still only at 50% of 2008 volume Main private banks able to continue borrowing through the crisis are the top names, including, for example: Alfa Bank MDM Bank Uralsib Promsvyazbank Very hard for banks outside top 20 (maybe 30?) to borrow Pricing movements become somewhat academic When the question of any market access (at all) becomes starkly binary 14

15 Russian banks, syndicated loan volume share Other banks 37% Sberbank 23% Bank of Moscow 2% VEB 2% VTB Group 9% MDM Bank 13% Alfa Bank 14% Total Russian bank syndicated loan volume of USD 38.2 billion, banks in total have borrowed in the market 15

16 Russian banks, syndicated loan volume share Promsvyazbank 3% MDM Bank 3% Other banks 14% VEB 31% Gazprombank 12% VTB 18% Sberbank 19% Total Russian bank syndicated loan volume of USD 17.5 billion, banks in total have borrowed in the market 16

17 Maturities of Russian banks eurobonds and foreign syndicated loans High volumes falling due in USD bn Eurobonds Syndicated loans 17

18 Summary: effect of the crisis on syndicated loans to Russian banks Number of syndicated loan bank borrowers: : : 19 Volume of syndicated loan bank deals: : USD 38.2 bn : USD 17.5 bn Share of state quartet * : 34% : 80% * VEB, VTB, Sberbank, Gazprombank 18

19 All Russian borrowers* by %, : concentrated at the top of the credit curve VEB 11% Tatneft 10% Gazprom - Neft 9% Other 47% Metalloinvest 5% Severneftegazprom 5% TNK-BP 5% Mechel 5% Re nova 4% > 50% captured by 9 names and 3 sectors Sberbank 4% * ie FIs plus corporates 19

20 Corporates and retail will benefit from the strength of the Russian banks Russian bank lending grew 30% in 2011 Russian bank lending forecast to grow 20% in 2012 Slower than 2011 because corporate investment is slowing Prediction for USD 150 bn equivalent of lending Of which USD 110 bn to corporates Sberbank takes approx 35% of loan market However, pricing is moving up by bp Reflecting withdrawal of French banks and higher USD funding costs London, 6 th March 2012 Top borrowers can be choosy about when they come to the market eg VEB, NLMK Western/international banks will find it tougher to compete than ever 20

21 Agenda The global setting The EBRD region EBRD s syndication activities Outlook 21

22 Loan syndications and co-financing million 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Total above pre-crisis levels but majority from official sources No. of co-financed projects B loans Other co-financing No. of co-financed projects 22

23 B loan volumes by country, 2011, mm Bosnia & Herz, 13 Georgia, 9 Armenia, 7 Tajikistan, 5 Kyrgyz Rep, 4 Poland, 36 Serbia, 40 Croatia, 43 Romania, 294 Azerbaijan, 50 Kazakhstan, 54 Ukraine, 71 Slovenia, 100 Russia,

24 B loan volumes by sector, 2011, mm Real estate, 45 Telecoms, 13 Agribusiness, 55 Transport, 94 Power, 271 Building materials, 100 Natural resources, 140 Financial institutions,

25 Noteworthy successes in difficult countries Ukraine Kubgas: USD 40 mm, 7 yrs Interleasinvest: USD 90 mm, 7 & 5 yrs Kazakhstan KEGOC: USD 156 mm, 12 & 15 yrs Bosnia & Herzegovina Telemach d.o.o. Sarajevo: 25 mm, 6 & 8 yrs Armenia Araratbank: USD 12 mm, 1,3 and 5 yrs Tajikistan Bank Eskhata: USD 8 mm, 4 yrs Kyrgyz Republic Mol Bulak: USD 8 mm, 3 yrs 25

26 Top B lenders* 1. UniCredit Group 2. Raiffeisen Bank International 3. ING Group 4. Erste Group 5. Credit Agricole 6. Societe Generale 7. Nordea 8. Intesa Sanpaolo 9. BNP Paribas 10. Cordiant Capital 11. Commerzbank 12. Kommunalkredit Austria 13. Bayern LB 14. RLB Oberoesterreich 15. Bankia 16. FMO 17. Fortis Bank 18. SEB 19. Danske Bank 20. Rabobank * Active commitments for funded participations 26

27 Agenda The global setting The EBRD region EBRD s syndication activities Outlook 27

28 Declining retail appetite: MLAs/investors per deal, Russia * Investors/deal MLAs/deal * All deals: FIs plus corporates 28

29 European banking capital shortfalls ( bn)* Cyprus, 3.6 Slovenia, 0.3 Norway, 1.5 Netherlands, 0.2 UK, 0 Belgium, 6.3 Portugal, 7 Austria, 3.9 Greece, 30 France, 7.3 Germany, 13.1 Spain, 26.2 Italy, 15.4 Total shortfall 115 billion * To meet EBA standards 29

30 Key banks in Eurozone, China and Gulf, assets (USD bn) London, 6 th March ,000 2,500 Chinese banks growing at 20% pa for last few years Eurozone banks shrinking their balance sheets 2,000 1,500 1, BNPP HSBC Credit Agricole ICBC ING CBC Santander BoC ABC SG Unicredit Intesa CDB B o Comm CPSB QNB NBAD NBK 30

31 Are Chinese and Gulf banks the answer? They could be a strong source of USD funding BUT Neither group considers the EBRD region a core market Chinese banks support projects which benefit China All are still majority state-owned Gulf banks may be good for new SEMED region Neither group yet ready to support small transactions for mid-tier corporates in countries where they do not have an active presence 31

32 Why Chinese banks are not (yet) the answer Chinese banks share of global syndicated lending 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Rest of world China 32

33 Conclusions Eurozone crisis and Basel III dominate and shape lending appetites Strong names are still able to retain good access to the loan market But maybe the relationship and ancillary business argument is looking increasingly weak Everybody is questioning whether their relationships are as good as they really think they are, and just who is worth lending to Euroweek, 2 March 2012 So pricing is rising and tenors shortening for even the good names (but not the best) Division between high- and low-quality credits will persist and increase USD funding availability a serious problem for eurozone banks Declining retail investor base Structures are key If security is tangible and measurable, the Basel capital allocation is softened, and this sells a deal 33

34 Some closing thoughts 34

35 Russia top ten syndicated loan providers 2011 (and EBRD Russia volume 2011 inc. equity) Of which majority at 5 yrs or longer USD bn CACIB Unicredit Citi BNPP HSBC SGCIB Sberbank BTMU SMBC ING EBRD 35

36 EBRD has a co-financing mandate Article 11.1 of the Treaty Establishing the EBRD: The Bank shall carry out its operations by co-financing together with commercial banks or other sources to facilitate the participation of private and/or foreign capital 36

37 EBRD B loan portfolio performance Total B loans committed: 11.4 billion Strong EBRD B Loan portfolio performance Gross write-offs/total B Loans committed: 0.20% Net write-offs/total B Loans after recoveries /write-backs: 0.15% These are cumulative data since establishment of EBRD in 1991 (not per annum data) Key assumptions/provisos: 1. That a commercial bank writes off the same percentage of its B Loan as the EBRD writes off on its A Loan 2. Currency exchange rates vary, and thus precise percentages may vary 3. Information and data as per end of December 2011 (subject to confirmation by auditors) 37

38 Agenda The global setting The EBRD region EBRD s syndication activities Outlook 38

39 Thank you for your attention! Lorenz Jorgensen Director, Head of Loan Syndications Tel: All loan market data sourced from Dealogic LoanAnalytics 39

40 40 London, 6 th March 2012

41 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Thank you for coming! 14 th Annual Syndications and Co-financiers Meeting London 6 th March 2012 Presentations will be posted to 41

42 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 14 th Annual Syndications and Co-financiers Meeting London 6 th March 2012 Presentations will be posted to 42

43 Annexes Selected Recent Co-financings 43

44 Selected Recent Co-financings ARARATBANK (Armenia) USD 12 mm senior loan for on-lending to local micro, small and small enterprises The first syndicated loan to Araratbank, with oversubscribed B Loan and three new B-lenders joining EBRD B Loan for the first time EBRD A Loan USD 3 mm; 5 years EBRD B1 Loan USD 3 mm; 3 years EBRD B2 Loan USD 6 mm; 1 year Signed October

45 Selected Recent Co-financings Raiffeisen Bank S.A. (Romania) EUR 150 mm senior loan for trade finance, corporate, SME and retail financing The first syndicated loan transaction in the financial sector in Romania since the global financial crisis (October 2008), aimed at re-opening access to debt capital markets for Romanian commercial banks EBRD A Loan EUR 40 mm; 5 years EBRD B Loan EUR 110 mm; 2 years Signed September

46 Selected Recent Co-financings InterLeaseInvest LLC (Ukraine) Borrower: a fast growing privately owned provider of rail cargo transportation and railcar operating leases to corporate clients in Ukraine Project: USD 90 mm to finance rail stock financing The first EBRD syndicated loan transaction to a privately owned provider of rail transportation services in Ukraine EBRD A Loan USD 45 mm; 7 years EBRD B Loan USD 45 mm; 5 years B Loan 1.5 times oversubscribed Signed September

47 Selected Recent Co-financings Aura Shopping Centre Surgut (Russia) EUR 70 mm senior loan to finance the development and construction of a class-a retail and entertainment centre with a total gross buildable area of over 90,000 sqm located in Surgut, Western Siberia Replicate of business model already successfully implemented in other regions of Russia by the client EBRD A Loan EUR 45 mm; 10 years EBRD B Loan EUR 25 mm; 7 years Signed September

48 Selected Recent Co-financings Bank Eskhata (Tajikistan) USD 8 mm senior loan for on-lending to local micro and small enterprises The first syndicated loan transaction in Tajikistan since 2008 and a first time a German cooperative bank committed to socially responsible lending has invested in Tajikistan alongside EBRD as a B lender EBRD A Loan USD 2 mm; 4 years EBRD B Loan USD 6 mm; 4 years Signed September

49 Selected Recent Co-financings Paravani Power Plant (Georgia) USD 63.5 mm 15-year senior loan to Georgian-Urban Enerji Ltd for the construction, financing, operation, maintenance and management of the Paravani hydro power plant and the transmission lines (allowing connection to the Georgian grid and export to Turkey) EBRD A Loan USD 52 mm; 15 years EBRD B Loan USD 11.5 mm; 15 years USD 52 mm Parallel Loan from IFC Signed August

50 Selected Recent Co-financings TransCapitalBank (Russia) USD 13 mm senior loan for on-lending to local small and medium-sized enterprises The first time an institution with a specific mandate to act as a socially responsible lender participates as co-financier to raise funds for a Russian borrower EBRD A Loan USD 10 mm; 4.5 years EBRD B Loan USD 3 mm; 3 years Signed August

51 Selected Recent Co-financings Credit Europe Bank (Russia) USD 250 mm EBRD and IFC joint senior syndicated loan facility for trade finance, corporate, SME and retail financing One of very limited number of syndicated loans completed for a private mid-sized Russian bank since the global financial crisis (October 2008) Syndication oversubscribed, raising double the sum originally intended from a wide range of investors (16 commercial banks) EBRD A Loan USD 50 mm; 3 years EBRD B Loan USD 75 mm; 1 year, with extension option for another year Signed August

52 Selected Recent Co-financings MK Group and Sunoko (Serbia) EUR 80 mm capex, working capital financing and balance sheet restructuring senior secured loan The first international syndication with EBRD s involvement in Serbia after the global financial crisis in the agricultural sector EBRD A Loan EUR 40 mm; 5 & 7 years EBRD B Loan EUR 40 mm; 5 years Signed August

53 Selected Recent Co-financings EDPR Cernavoda & Pestera wind farms (Romania) EUR 188 mm EBRD and IFC joint project financing for the construction, commissioning and operation of two adjacent wind farms: Pestera (90 MW) and Cernavoda (138 MW), both located in SE Romania EBRD A Loan EUR 69 mm; 14.5 years EBRD B Loan EUR 25 mm; 14.5 years EUR 94 mm Parallel Loan from IFC Signed July

54 Selected Recent Co-financings HIDROELECTRICA S.A. (Romania) EUR 110 mm senior loan to finance the rehabilitation of six units at Stejarul Bicaz, a 50-year old hydro power plant with a total capacity of 210 MW on the Bistrita River in the north-eastern Romania Hidroelectrica has a market share of 35% in Romania, with a network of 273 power plants and pumping stations with a total capacity of 6,482 MW EBRD A Loan EUR 69 mm; 14.5 years EBRD B Loan EUR 25 mm; 14.5 years Signed July

55 Selected Recent Co-financings Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (Kazakhstan) USD 156 mm senior loan for refinancing purposes and for financing CAPEX associated with the rehabilitation of substations and highvoltage equipment The first syndicated loan for a Kazakh borrower since the global financial crisis (October 2008) EBRD A Loan USD 86 mm; 15 years EBRD B Loan USD 70 mm; 12 & 15 years Signed May

56 Selected Recent Co-financings Kubgas (Ukraine) USD 40 mm 7-year senior loan for the development of on-shore gas and condensate fields in the Lugansk region, eastern Ukraine, in the period of 2013 One of very few transactions in Ukraine with a long term tenor for an independent natural resources sector company EBRD A Loan USD 25 mm; 7 years EBRD B Loan USD 15 mm; 7 years Signed May

57 Selected Recent Co-financings Termoelektrarna Šoštanj d.o.o. (TEŠ) (Slovenia) EUR 200 mm to finance a EUR 1.2 billion investment plan to replace four ageing power generation units with a new 600 MW unit utilising supercritical technologies TEŠ is the largest power generation plant in Slovenia with an installed capacity of 779 MW, generates, on average, one third of the energy in Slovenia. EBRD A1 Loan EUR 80 mm; 15 years EBRD A2 Loan EUR 20 mm; 12 years EBRD B1 Loan EUR 80 mm; 15 years EBRD B2 Loan EUR 20 mm; 12 years Signed January