Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships

Transcription

1 Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships Christophe Cahn 1 Anne Duquerroy 1 William Mullins 2 1 Banque de France 2 University of Maryland BdF-BdI Workshop - June 9, / 43

2 Motivation 2 / 43

3 Motivation Many policies attempt to reduce bank funding costs and increase incentives to lend (ECB LTROs & TLTROs ; UK FLS) Evidence suggests no positive effects on lending to small firms Iyer et al. 2014; Andrade et al. 2015; Acharya et al. 2015; Darmouni & Rodnyansky Potential reasons: Hoarding liquidity (Allen et al. 2009; Caballero & Krishnamurthy 2008) Crowding out (Diamond & Rajan, 2011; Abbassi et al. 2016; Chakraborty et al. 2016) Small and young firms critical to economy, particularly sensitive to economic downturns, highly bank dependent 2/3 of workforce in FR; 58% of total value added Limited access to public debt market 80% are single-bank ECB Rates 3 / 43

4 Research questions How to support private lending to SMEs during aggregate contractions? How do banks adjust their lending portfolio in response to a positive supply shock? How do bank lending relationships affect shock transmission? Relaxing firm financial constraints or pushing bad loans? Are single-bank firms particularly credit constrained in crisis periods? 4 / 43

5 Overview : this paper [The ECB] will allow banks to use loans as collateral with the Eurosystem, thereby unfreezing a large portion of bank assets.(...) The goal of these measures is to ensure that firms - and especially small and medium-sized enterprises - will receive credit as effectively as possible under the current circumstances. Mario Draghi, 12/15/2011 Regulatory shock changed cost faced by banks of funding loans to some firms but not to others that are closely comparable Clean Difference-in-Differences approach to estimate the causal effects of the policy shock: On credit supply to existing borrowers On payment defaults to suppliers and rating downgrade For single-bank as well as multibank firms 5 / 43

6 Regulatory shock Collateral Framework Extension Additional Credit Claims eligibility (ACC) - February 2012 ECB and Banque de France expand credit claims eligible as collateral (not specific to SMEs) Banks can now use lower quality loans as collateral at a time of massive borrowing from Eurosystem (LTROs) Allows banks to borrow more (and cheaply) from Central Bank; Estimated bank cost of funding: 400 bp 100 bp with collateral and subject to haircut. Shock operates at firm credit-rating level, unlike extensive literature on shocks at the bank level Funding Conditions 6 / 43

7 Main findings We find a causal effect of reduced cost of funding loans on : Extra lending: effect is driven by 1-bank firms (+6.8%) Lower payment default rate to suppliers, potentially reducing contagion effects ; Lower probability of rating downgrades. We provide empirical evidence consistent with: No evergreening: additional credit flows to 1-bank firms with strong balance sheets and lending relationships 1-bank firms (vs. multibank) being more credit constrained ex-ante Note: 1-bank firms are naturally relationship borrowers anyway 7 / 43

8 Related Literature Liquidity shocks are passed on to banks... Peek & Rosengren 2000; Gan 2007; Paravisini 2008; Khwaja & Mian 2008 Schnabl 2012; Iyer et al. 2014; Jimenez et al and to more vulnerable firms Khwaja & Mian 2008; Iyer et al We have shock varying at the firm level We can look at 1-bank firms using within bank-month estimator Mixed evidence on value of relationship lending Increased credit availability, reduced cost, lending continuation over the cycle (Petersen & Rajan 1994; Sette & Gobbi 2015; Bolton et al. 2016) BUT hold up and rent extraction (Rajan 1992; Santos & Winton 2008) We can look at 1-bank and multiple bank firms 8 / 43

9 Data sources Monthly credit data at firm*bank level, aggregated at firm level Outstanding amounts of credit, from National Credit Register Provided bank has a risk exposure to firm > 25, 000 euros Merged with firm-level accounting data from annual tax returns, Collected for all firms with sales > 0.75 million euros With firm-level rating information provided by BdF, And with individual payment default data on trade bills All incidents, from the first euro, of payments on commercial paper that have been mediated by French banks, for firms with a credit rating Statistics All firms Statistics Single Bank 9 / 43

10 Empirical Design Intention To Treat Assignment to treat / control based on credit rating in Dec 2011 French Independent SMEs: With workers Observed throughout Unique firms: 8, 200 Attenuation bias Sample Choice of control group 10 / 43

11 Empirical methodology g it : cumulative debt growth of firm i, wrt. average debt in 2011 g it = (Debt it Debt i2011 ) Debt i2011 Difference-in-Differences ACC vs. Rating 5+ g it = α i + β1 ACCi Post + Γ Controls iy 1 + Bank kt + Ind jt + ɛ ijkt For firm i, in industry j, in month t, with (main) bank k 1 ACCi = 1 if firm has a rating of 4 (treated) in Dec 2011 Post=1 if t >= March 2012 SE clustered by firm to address serial-correlation 11 / 43

12 Identification g it = α i + β1 ACCi Post + Γ Controls iy 1 + Bank kt + Ind jt + ɛ ijkt Main omitted variable concerns : Firm loan demand: use firm FE to control for unobserved fixed heterogeneity in firm fundamentals, that proxy for credit demand Bank time-varying capital & liquidity shocks (vltro ; OMT announcement) : use bank x month FE Industry-level shocks: use industry x quarter FE Unlike yearly data, monthly credit registry data allows Powerful test of parallel trends Examination of exact timing of effects 12 / 43

13 Single-bank seem more financially constrained ex-ante Consistent with benefits of multiple lending relationships to insure against bank liquidity shocks (Detragiache et al.2000) Outstanding Amounts in Me 13 / 43

14 ACC mainly affects single-bank firms Single-bank firms Multibank firms 14 / 43

15 Effect of the ACC policy on credit growth Treated 1-bank firms: 6.8 percentage point higher debt 15 / 43

16 Monthly dynamics of the ACC effect Single-bank firms Multibank Leverage 16 / 43

17 Within single-bank firms: which firms are benefiting? Firms with best observables Low leverage, more tangible assets, net providers of trade credit 1 High-growth firms 2 Relationship firms Longer lending relationship wider scope larger effect 3 BUT Soft info does not substitute for hard info 4 Though ACC may have helped RL firms with lower interest coverage 5 Not consistent with evergreening or zombie lending 17 / 43

18 Good Lending? Failure to pay trade bills to suppliers (as % of payables) Positive spillovers to suppliers: amount under default falls by 2% of annualized payables in the year following the shock Graph Statistics Lower Downgrades 18 / 43

19 Robustness & extensions Placebo: no effect on non-pledgeable types of debt 1 Robust to scaling of debt: btw. 6.5 to 8.8 pp higher debt using different measures Robust to clustering at bank-quarter level, including a time trend 2 19 / 43

20 Next Real Effects (investment) Crowding out of 5+: small effect, not statistically significant Loans classified as doubtfuls by banks Other measures of RL : distance to HQ, distance to closest branch Further robustness 20 / 43

21 Conclusion Cleanly identified micro-evidence on causal link between : Reduced cost of bank funding SME lending increase Central OECD policy objective No evidence of zombie lending Reducing default contagion Especially important for high growth firms Focus attention on single-bank firms in crises, as appear especially credit constrained Relationship banking does not appear to provide a strong insurance function for these firms Need more research focus on how RL works in crisis period 21 / 43

22 APPENDIX 22 / 43

23 Sample characteristics French SMEs: firms with workers Also includes firms with < 10 workers if sales are > 2M euros and total assets > 2M euros Independent firms (one legal unit), SA and SARL Drop financials, utilities, health, teaching and farming (standard) Firms observed throughout 2011 and 2012 Credit ratings of: 4 (treated, better) and 5+ (control, worse) Number of unique firms: 8,200 Sample Back 23 / 43

24 Empirical Design Choice of Control Group 5+ is the right control group ACC is concurrent with LTRO 2 4+ are also treated and with higher treatment intensity Graph 4+ Back 24 / 43

25 Descriptive Statistics I Single-bank Multibank Mean Med. N Mean Med. N p-val. Total Assets 1,879 1,141 36,050 2,465 1,416 62, Age , , Bank Debt Ke , , Leverage , , N.Banks , , Payment Default , , Back 25 / 43

26 Descriptive Statistics II Single-bank firms ACC firms 5+ firms Mean Med. N Mean Med. N p-val. Total Assets 1,822 1,034 22,909 1,975 1,417 13, Age , , Bank Debt Ke , , Leverage , , Payment Default , , Back 26 / 43

27 Funding conditions for French banks Market vs. ECB funding costs (Gilchrist & Mojon 2017 ) Back 27 / 43

28 g(debt) by rating category: 5+, ACC, 4+ and 3 Back Single-bank firms Multibank firms 28 / 43

29 Monthly dynamic of the ACC effect Multibank firms Back 29 / 43

30 Monthly dynamic of the ACC effect on Leverage Single-bank firms Back 30 / 43

31 ACC effect conditional on Hard Information Good lending : credit does not flow to firms with weak balance-sheets Back 31 / 43

32 ACC effect on Gazelles and Young firms Good lending : positive credit shock for high-growth firms Back 32 / 43

33 ACC supply shock & Relationship Lending Stronger increase in debt for longer and information-intensive relationships Back 33 / 43

34 ACC effect conditional on Hard Information Length of Lending Relationships >= 6y Soft information does not offset the dominant role of hard information Back 34 / 43

35 ACC effect conditional on Interest Coverage Continuation lending : ACC helps firms with low levels of interest coverage - especially if the relationship is extensive Back 35 / 43

36 Good Lending? ACC effect on defaults to payments to suppliers Payment default Failure to pay a trade bill to a given supplier, in full and/or on time For insolvency, liquidity or disputes motives Average monthly payment default rate 4.5% Descriptive Statistics on Payment Default in 2011(Single-bank) Rating 5+ firms Mean Sd p50 N Default in % of payables ,641 Back ACC firms Mean Sd p50 N pval (clust) Default in % of payables , / 43

37 Good Lending? ACC effect on Payment Defaults on Trade Bills Back 37 / 43

38 Placebo Test Effect of the ACC policy on non-pledgeable types of debt Back 38 / 43

39 Robustness Tests Back 39 / 43

40 Good Lending? ACC effect on the probability of Credit Rating Downgrades Lower probability of downgrade for treated firms Back 40 / 43

41 ECB Main Rates Back 41 / 43

42 Rating changes over time : All firms Probability first downgrade occurs next month 42 / 43

43 Rating changes over time : All firms Probability first upgrade occurs next month Back 43 / 43