Weekly Market Review February 8, 2015 February 14, 2015 February 15, 2015
CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index unexpectedly slipped to 93.6 in Feb from 98.1 in Jan Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 97.9 in Jan, raising worries over the near-term outlook Retail sales slipped 0.8% in Jan, declining for a 2 nd straight month, as households cut bank on purchases Initial unemployment claims rose by 25,000 to 304,000 for the week ended Feb 7, more than expectation Euro Zone grew by 0.9% YoY & 0.3% QoQ in 4Q2014, aided by surprise expansion in Germany Sentix Euro zone sentiment index rose to +12.4 in Feb from +0.9 in Jan as sentiment improves on ECB bond buying Germany grew by 0.7% in 4Q2014, exceeding 0.3% growth expectation and pointing toward a stronger 2015 Inflation shrank 0.4% YoY in Jan for the 1 st time in 5 years, largely due to lower energy prices British industrial output fell 0.2% MoM in Dec, signaling that the recovery lost some pace towards the end of 2014 Greece's economy contracted by 0.2% QoQ while it expanded by 1.7% YoY in 4Q2014 Industrial output fell 3.8% YoY in Dec after an increase of 2.5% in Nov. Output shrank by 2.7% YoY in 2014 Italy s GDP dropped 0.3% YoY but remained flat QoQ in 4Q2014 as weak domestic demand offset rising export Switzerland reported a deficit of $133.92mn in 2014, as receipts and expenditures came in below budget The French economy grew by 0.1% in 4Q2014 and by 0.4% in 2014, helped by consumer and public spending Japan s core machinery orders rose 8.3% MoM in Dec at the fastest pace in 6 months, a positive sign for recovery Current account surplus shrank 18.8% for a fourth straight year to Yen 2.26tn, smallest on record in 2014 China's consumer price index rose 0.8% YoY in Jan to hit a 5-year low, underscoring deepening economic weakness Chinese banks extended $235.6bn in new loans in Jan. Outstanding loan growth stood at 13.9% South Africa s unemployment rate dipped to 24.3% in 4Q2014 to a one year low from 25.4% in 3Q2014 S&P affirmed sovereign credit ratings of Abu Dhabi and Qatar while it downgraded Bahrain and Oman. S&P also lowered its outlook on Saudi Arabia from stable to negative Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2,096.99 41.52 2.02 1.85 DJI 18,019.35 195.06 1.09 1.10 Nasdaq Comp 4,893.84 149.44 3.15 3.33 Euro Stoxx 600 377.07 3.76 1.01 10.08 FTSE 100 6,873.52 20.08 0.29 4.68 Dax 10,963.40 117.01 1.08 11.81 CAC 40 4,759.36 68.33 1.46 11.39 Nikkei 225 17,913.36 264.86 1.50 2.65 Hang Seng 24,682.54 3.15 0.01 4.56 Brazil - Bovespa 50,635.92 1,843.65 3.78 1.26 Russia - Micex 1,838.18 82.73 4.71 31.62 BSE Sensex 29,094.93 377.02 1.31 5.80 Shanghai Comp 3,203.83 127.92 4.16-0.95 S&P 500 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 1 year performance Page I 3
GCC EQUITIES Damac Properties net profit surged 190% to AED3.5bn in 2014; recommends 10% bonus shares totaling AED0.5bn Aldar Properties reports AED2.24bn profit in 2014 vs. AED2.25bn in 2013; plans to cut debt to AED6bn by 2015-end Aabar Investments purchased 24.8mn shares (0.565%) in Arabtec Holding, increasing Aabar s total holding to 36.1% ADNOC signed a $500mn technical agreement with Occidental Petroleum to develop Al-Hail and Ghasha oilfields Union Cement Company s net profit in FY2014 jumped around 67% to AED84.8mn; recommends 10% dividend Meraas Holding seeks AED860mn loan to fund the development of retail space around Ferris wheel Dubai-based Buroj Property will start work on Buroj Ozon project in Bosnia at a cost of around AED10bn Dubai Parks & Resorts expects AED2.4bn revenue from Dubai theme parks in the 1 st year of operations Abu Dhabi Gas Ind. and Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction awarded ~$1.6bn worth contracts to expand the UAE s gas processing facilities S&P affirmed Saudi-based Dar Al-Arkan Real-Estate s Corporate Credit rating. Downgraded outlook to negative Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons won $170mn contract from Ma aden Waad Al Shamal Phosphate Co. Saudi Transport & Investment Co. agreed to acquire 95% stake in Arabian Co. for Security Services for SAR180mn Advanced Petrochemical Co. reported ~35% rise in FY2014 net profit to SAR751mn; proposes 7.5% cash dividend Saudi Cement Company recommended 25% cash dividend for 2H2014 amounting SAR382.5mn German e-commerce company, Rocket Internet agreed to acquire Kuwait-based Talabat for around $169.6mn QNB Group mandated consortium of banks to arrange a new $3bn 3-year term-loan for general corporate purposes Commercial Bank of Qatar s bottom-line rose 17.2% YoY to QAR1.9bn in 2014; recommends cash dividend & bonus United Development Company reported ~94% surge in FY2014 net profit to QAR626mn; board proposed dividend Bahrain s BBK reported an 11.2% rise in FY2014 earnings to BHD50mn; recommends 20% cash dividend & 5% bonus 3 US universities agreed to establish a $103mn university at Gulf Finance House s Tunis Financial Harbor project Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 3,903.38 16.85 0.43 3.43 Abu Dhabi 4,626.92 18.36 0.40 2.16 Saudi Tadawul 9,257.49 77.38 0.84 11.09 Qatar Index 12,607.60 86.94 0.69 2.62 Kuwait Index 6,695.89-4.17-0.06 2.45 Oman MSM 30 6,657.85-29.91-0.45 4.96 Bahrain All Share 1,447.47 11.53 0.80 1.47 Egypt EGX 30 9,747.36-218.07-2.19 9.19 Istanbul 100 Index 85,809.25 821.83 0.97 0.10 DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Page I 4
CURRENCIES US dollar weakened against Japanese yen during the week by 0.3% as investors views on US consumer spending and economic growth deteriorated, pushing back market expectations for higher interest rates by midyear Euro appreciated 0.7% in the week against the dollar, registering a third straight week of gain as dollar weakened by some softer US economic reports while euro strengthened on a stronger than expected German growth data Brazil s real declined for a third straight week by 1.9% in the week against dollar amid concern that President Dilma Rousseff s economic team is struggling to address stalled growth and above-target inflation Chinese Yuan gained 0.07% in the week as the cease-fire agreement in Ukraine boosted demand for emergingmarket assets. Meanwhile, the People s Bank of China raised the Yuan s reference rate by 0.07% to 6.1288 a dollar Canadian dollar strengthened 0.63% in the week against US dollar as a report from Statistics Canada showed that manufacturing sales rose 1.7% in Dec, far higher than economists expectations of 0.5% increase Venezuela tweaked its foreign exchange system during the week. The new platform, called Marginal Currency System or Simadi, is the 3rd system in a three-tier exchange control mechanism which will allow for legal trading of foreign currency based on supply and demand, while the government will still sell dollars for most imports at 6.3 and 12 bolívares Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD 1.1394 0.0078 0.69-5.82 GBP/USD 1.5395 0.0152 1.00-1.17 AUD/USD 0.7762-0.0034-0.44-5.05 USD/JPY 118.7500-0.3700-0.31-0.86 USD/CHF 0.9322 0.0054 0.58-6.25 USD/CAD 1.2448-0.0079-0.63 7.12 USD/BRl 2.8347 0.0528 1.90 6.66 USD/RUB 63.4417-3.4153-5.11 4.45 USD/INR 62.1963 0.4938 0.80-1.34 USD/CNY 6.2405-0.0041-0.07 0.56 DXY Index 94.2010-0.4970-0.52 4.36 EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5
COMMODITIES Brent closed up for a second straight week by gaining 4.8% as it crossed $60/barrel mark after data showed the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States fell in the week to its lowest since August 2011 Gold closed down for a 3 rd week by 0.4% since the outlook for dollar remained upbeat despite the current pause in its long-term rally, as many investors continued to price in an interest rate hike by the Fed some time in 2015 Palm oil futures dropped by 2.5% in the week over concerns on sluggish customers and exports demand as market digested recent news of Malaysia s plans to re-impose taxes on palm oil exports Cocoa futures gained approximately 7% in the week on weather-linked supply concerns in key producing nations of Ghana and Ivory Coast in West Africa Baltic Dry Index lost 5.2% in the week as China curbs coal buying at a time when the largest-ever fleet is competing to haul cargoes. Rates declined for all except one of the ship types tracked by the Baltic Exchange Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1,229.43-4.49-0.36 3.76 Silver spot 17.36 0.64 3.85 10.54 Copper-CMX 260.50 1.95 0.75-7.80 Brent - ICE 61.52 2.84 4.84 7.31 WTI - Nymex 52.78 1.09 2.11-1.71 S&P GSCI Spot Index 425.99 15.58 3.80 1.88 Baltic Dry Index 530.00-29.00-5.19-32.23 WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6
INTEREST RATES US treasuries continue falling and yields rose further by 9.4 bps to 2.05% after January jobs data last week boosted expectations that Federal Reserve may increase interest rates in the coming months UK government bonds fell for a second week as yields gained by 3 bps to 1.68% after a report showed Germany s growth beat forecasts, reducing concern that the euro-region economy will be a drag on Britain Greek 10-yr bond yield fell around 82 bps in the week to 9.12% as Greece agreed on Feb 12 to talk to its creditors about the way out of its hated international bailout, a political retreat that could prevent its new government from running out of money as early as next month The Riksbank, Sweden central bank shocked markets after it cut its key repo rate to -0.1% from zero where it had been since Oct 2014. It also announced its intentions to buy bonds worth 10bn Swedish crowns China s benchmark seven-day repurchase rate climbed for a fifth week by 31 bps to 4.65% as IPOs by about 24 companies tightened cash supply, locking up 2.05tn Yuan ($328bn) in the past five days Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor 0.14 0.0015 1.10 2.22 USD-3m Libor 0.26 0.0025 0.98 0.98 USD-6m Libor 0.38 0.0145 4.00 3.89 USD-10yr 2.05 0.0937 4.79-5.56 AED-1m EIBOR 0.38 0.0000 0.00-3.26 AED-3m EIBOR 0.69 0.0000 0.00 2.11 AED-12m EIBOR 1.01 0.0000 0.00-0.28 UK-10yr 1.68 0.0300 1.82-4.56 Japan-10yr 0.42 0.0840 25.15 29.81 Short-term borrowing costs in India jumped by around 25-30 bps after Reserve Bank of India barred foreign institutional investors (FIIs) from investing in securities below three year maturities, forcing corporate to stay away from raising short-term fund US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7
EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Slovakia 11.70% 12.47% 2 Greece 11.28% 12.05% 3 Russia 10.61% 10.61% 4 Argentina 6.15% 5.86% 5 Austria 5.48% 6.21% 6 Ukraine 4.90% 1.48% 7 Czech Republic 4.52% 5.54% 8 Hungary 4.29% 4.85% 9 China 4.16% 4.23% 10 Namibia 3.86% 2.42% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia 15.60% 15.60% 2 Slovakia 14.38% 7.72% 3 Finland 12.99% 6.42% 4 Estonia 12.79% 6.23% 5 Sweden 12.12% 3.91% 6 Germany 11.81% 5.30% 7 Italy 11.53% 5.04% 8 Argentina 11.46% 8.67% 9 France 11.39% 4.91% 10 Portugal 11.17% 4.70% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Nigeria -8.00% -12.30% 2 Venezuela -3.53% -3.53% 3 Colombia -2.73% -2.86% 4 Egypt -2.19% -2.17% 5 Pakistan -2.06% -2.31% 6 Jordan -1.56% -1.59% 7 Mongolia -0.92% -1.58% 8 Montenegro -0.92% -0.33% 9 Kazakhstan -0.87% -0.85% 10 Malaysia -0.68% -1.58% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Nigeria -20.41% -28.27% 2 Cyprus -11.32% -16.48% 3 Kazakhstan -11.08% -12.38% 4 Venezuela -9.57% -9.57% 5 Colombia -7.61% -7.93% 6 Mongolia -6.39% -9.80% 7 Peru -5.56% -8.68% 8 Ghana -4.95% -10.18% 9 Bulgaria -4.81% -10.30% 10 Mauritius -4.11% -8.71% Page I 8
COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Natural Gas 8.72% 2 Heat Oil 7.19% 3 Cocoa 6.99% 4 Brent Crude 6.44% 5 Gasoil 5.23% 6 Rubber 4.63% 7 Gasoline 4.30% 8 Silver 3.85% 9 Lean Hogs 3.37% 10 Sugar 2.55% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoil 13.91% 2 Gasoline 13.30% 3 Rubber 11.39% 4 Silver 10.54% 5 Brent Crude 7.31% 6 Heat Oil 6.76% 7 Natural Gas 6.65% 8 Cotton 4.03% 9 Gold 3.76% 10 Sugar 2.48% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Nickel -3.87% 2 Palm Oil -2.53% 3 Coffee -2.19% 4 Rough Rice -2.00% 5 Aluminium -1.84% 6 Platinum -1.32% 7 Tin -1.22% 8 Lumber -1.05% 9 Zinc -0.55% 10 Gold -0.36% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lean Hogs -18.69% 2 Steel Rebar -14.04% 3 Ethanol -11.37% 4 Wheat -9.62% 5 Bean Meal -8.86% 6 Rough Rice -8.40% 7 Copper -7.80% 8 Feeder Cattle -7.11% 9 Tin -5.80% 10 Lumber -5.71% Page I 9
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