Weekly Market Review December 21, 2014 December 27, 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review December 21, 2014 December 27, 2014 December 28,

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US economy grew 5% YoY in 3Q2014, up from an earlier estimate of 3.9%, led by consumer & business spending Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped to 93.6 from 88.8 in Nov Overall durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 0.7% in Nov, suggesting a slow down in economic growth Personal consumption expenditure inflation slowed to 1.2% YoY in Nov from 1.4% YoY in Oct Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000 for the week ended Dec 20 European Commission said Euro zone consumer confidence edged up to in Dec from a revised in Nov Britain s 3Q2014 growth was revised down to 2.6% from 3% YoY, hurt by lower investment and higher imports French public debt rose to 95.2% of GDP in 3Q2014 at 2,031bn from 95.1% of GDP in 2Q2014 at 2,024bn Bank of Spain raised 2014 GDP growth estimate from 1.3% to 1.4% on optimism falling oil prices will aid growth Japan s government approved $29bn fiscal stimulus package to boost the economy Japan's core consumer inflation stood at 0.7% in Nov vs. 0.9% in Oct, far below Bank of Japan's 2% target Factory output slid 0.6% in Nov after two straight months of gains Chinese industrial profits dropped 4.2% YoY in Nov to $108.85bn, the biggest annual decline since Aug 2012 Chinese labor ministry said economy created more than 13mn new jobs in 2014, despite slower economic growth S&P revised Russia s rating to creditwatch negative from negative, warning it could be downgraded to speculative Russian Foreign Minister forecasted economy to shrink by 4% in 2015 if oil averaged at $60/barrel Brazil s central bank lowered 2014 growth forecast to 0.2% from earlier 0.7%, lifted 2015 inflation forecast to 6.1% Canada s economy grew 0.3% in Oct after expanding 0.4% in Sept, led by an unexpected surge in manufacturing Saudi Arabian spending in 2015 budget is projected at SR860bn, up 0.6% from 2014, despite plunging oil prices South Korea cuts 2015 growth forecast to 3.8% from 4%, citing weaker-than-expected domestic demand Serbia adopted 2015 budget curtailing spending on pension & unprofitable public cos. to secure 1bn IMF loan Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 18, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 9, CAC 40 4, Nikkei , Hang Seng 23, Brazil - Bovespa 50, Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 27, Shanghai Comp 3, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance

4 GCC EQUITIES Nakheel invited bids for the construction of 1,439 villas in Dubai, estimated to be worth $680mn Mashreq Bank acted as sole lead arranger and book runner for India-based Jet Airways' $150mn loan Ducab Aluminuim begins construction of its new aluminum rod and conductor facility costing AED220mn Omniyat Group s ANWA project in Dubai sold 81% of its units in less than a week recording AED432mn in sales RAK Ceramics said it will sell its Sudan business and raise annual sanitary ware capacity in UAE by 500,000 pieces Doha Bank signed an AED500mn 5 year financing deal with Sobha Group of Dubai Saudi Aramco and Total Refining & Chemicals Saudi Arabia decided to increase SATORP s capital by SR1.125bn Saudi Telecom Company will book gain amounting to SR621mn in 4Q2014 related to land expropriation in Riyadh Saudi Industrial Investment Group recommended SR1/share dividend, totaling SR450mn for the financial year 2014 Saudi British Bank proposed capital increase by SR5bn & cash dividend of SR1.05/share for 2014 totaling SR1.05bn Sahara Petrochemical Co. recommended SR0.85/share dividend for 2014 amounting SR372.98mn Qatar-based Nebras Power plans to spend $14bn to develop coal mines in Turkey Qatar-based Gulf Warehousing Co. seeks to raise around QR476mn through rights issue US-based Dairy Queen, fast food and ice cream seller, re-enters Kuwait and plans more than 20 outlets over 5 years Oman Electricity Transmission Company signs six power transmission agreements worth OMR88mn Oman Power & Water Procurement awarded $250mn seawater desalination project to Singapore-led consortium Oman's Bank Dhofar plans to raise $300mn to boost its capital in 2015 and issue up to $500mn of senior noncapital debt instruments in the next four years to support growth Bahrain-based Global Investment House reduced its paid-up capital by 54.2% from KD174.6mn to KD79.9mn Fitch revised outlook on Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait and National Bank of Bahrain to Negative from Stable Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 3, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 8, Qatar Index 12, , Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 8, Istanbul 100 Index 84, , DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance

5 CURRENCIES US dollar appreciated 0.4% in the week to dollars per euro, gaining for the second week as US GDP registered biggest advance since 3Q2003 and jobless claims dropped to the fewest since November Japanese yen weakened 0.7% in the week to per dollar after consumer price inflation slowed for a fourth month and real wages declined the most since 2009 Brazil s real climbed 0.4% in the week to per dollar on speculation the central bank will signal support for the currency when it announces details on the extension of swap offerings into 2015 Russian ruble advanced 10.3% in the week to 53.5 per dollar as central bank limits on ruble liquidity created a cash squeeze that boosted demand for the local currency, while policy makers introduced measures to curb banks need for dollars Indian rupee depreciated 0.4% in the week on speculation importers stepped up dollar purchases to meet monthend payments and as US economic data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates South Korea s won strengthened 0.3% in the week to 1, per dollar amid speculation exporters sold dollars to convert overseas earnings as year-end approaches Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance

6 COMMODITIES WTI crude futures lost 4.2% in the week, its fifth consecutive weekly drop, as traders speculated that Saudi Arabia wouldn t move to cut production until oil prices fell to $40 a barrel Gold spot fell marginally in the week as good US economic data boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will start increasing interest rates soon. Higher rates weigh on no -interest-bearing bullion Copper futures declined 2.4% in the week as investors turned skeptical on China s latest steps to kick-start its economy. China accounts for some 40% of the world s copper consumption Palm oil futures gained 4.85% in the week as severe monsoon flooding in Malaysia is likely to cause a bigger-thanexpected disruption to crude palm oil production in the world's number 2 producer Wheat futures on Chicago Board of Trade fell 6.79% in the week, after it reached seven-month highs last week as Russia made an anticipated announcement to restrict exports Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance

7 INTEREST RATES The 10-yr US yield rose 8.8 bps in the week to 2.25% as low inflation, higher yields relative to other sovereign borrowers and persistent global turmoil enhanced the allure of the securities Spain s treasury said net debt issuance will be 55bn in 2015, 8bn higher than the one announced in September Yield on 10-yr Japanese government bond hit a record low of 0.3% in the week and closed 2.6bps down at 0.33% as BoJ bought yen 400bn in the 5-10 year zone under its massive asset purchase program China s benchmark 7-day repurchase rate tumbled 120bps in the week to 4.73% after cash locked up to buy new shares returned to the banking system Indian government bond fell and 10-yr yield touched the highest of 7.99% since Dec 17 before closing at 7.98% as auction cut-offs set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) disappointed the market Russian Central Bank would provide $20.4bn at a three-month credit auction secured by non-marketable assets on Jan 12 to alleviate shortage of rubles in the money market Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Kazakhstan 23.86% 24.28% 2 Nigeria 13.60% 12.35% 3 Dubai UAE 13.43% 13.43% 4 Oman 13.18% 13.18% 5 Qatar 11.33% 11.39% 6 Russia 7.88% 7.88% 7 Kuwait 5.58% 5.52% 8 Saudi Arabia 5.15% 5.13% 9 Argentina 4.38% 4.39% 10 Egypt 4.05% 3.95% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Argentina 55.33% 18.43% 2 China 49.23% 45.41% 3 Venezuela 38.64% 38.64% 4 Egypt 28.86% 25.12% 5 India 28.68% 25.10% 6 Pakistan 26.65% 32.35% 7 Turkey 25.29% 16.08% 8 Sri Lanka 23.61% 23.23% 9 Philippine 22.01% 21.18% 10 Denmark 21.28% 7.80% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Cyprus -2.48% -2.85% 2 Israel -1.17% -0.98% 3 Estonia -1.15% -1.52% 4 Greece -1.07% -1.44% 5 Latvia -0.98% -1.35% 6 Ukraine -0.72% -0.69% 7 Croatia -0.67% -1.06% 8 Ghana -0.51% -0.87% 9 India -0.48% -0.90% 10 Tunisia -0.42% -0.53% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia % % 2 Greece % % 3 Portugal % % 4 Cyprus % % 5 Nigeria % % 6 Austria % % 7 Kuwait % % 8 Hungary % % 9 Malta % % 10 Latvia % %

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Palm Oil 4.85% 2 Bean Meal 3.94% 3 Live Cattle 3.81% 4 Palladium 3.34% 5 Rubber 2.88% 6 Platinum 1.79% 7 Soybean Oil 1.79% 8 Silver 1.37% 9 Cotton 1.33% 10 Zinc 1.32% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Coffee 52.30% 2 Feeder Cattle 28.21% 3 Live Cattle 22.49% 4 Palladium 14.21% 5 Nickel 10.32% 6 Cocoa 8.56% 7 Zinc 8.45% 8 Orange Juice 3.74% 9 Aluminium 3.37% 10 Wheat 0.91% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Natural Gas % 2 Wheat -6.79% 3 Coffee -2.91% 4 Orange Juice -2.68% 5 Aluminium -2.62% 6 Nickel -2.01% 7 Sugar -1.93% 8 Heat Oil -1.59% 9 Feeder Cattle -1.54% 10 Copper -1.31% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Brent Crude % 2 Gasoline % 3 WTI Crude % 4 Gasoil % 5 Heat Oil % 6 Rubber % 7 Natural Gas % 8 Cotton % 9 Steel Rebar % 10 Rough Rice %

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