Weekly Market Review November 23, 2014 November 29, 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review November 23, 2014 November 29, 2014 November 30, 2014

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US raised 3Q2014 GDP growth estimate to 3.9% YoY from earlier 3.5% YoY, pointing to strengthening fundamentals US consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.2% in Oct after being flat in Sept Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 88.8 in Nov vs in Oct Non-defense capital goods orders declined 1.3% in October for a second straight month US new single home sales rose for a 3 rd straight month in Oct, Sept sales was revised down to 0.46mn from 0.47mn Private sector lending in Euro zone contracted 1.1% YoY in October after shrinking 1.2% in September Euro zone consumer prices rose 0.3% in Nov to a 5-yr low, prodding the ECB toward expanding its stimulus program European commission economic sentiment index rose to in Nov from in Oct and 99.9 in Sept Unemployment rate held at 11.5% in October Italy s unemployment rate rose to 13.2% in Oct from a revised 12.9% in Sept, as businesses refrain from hiring German retail sales grew 1.9% MoM and 1.7% YoY in Oct as compared to a 2.8% MoM drop recorded in Sept UK GDP in 3Q2014 registered an increase of 0.7% QoQ and 3% YoY. Business investment fell by 0.7% in 3Q2014 UK consumer sentiment index by GfK NOP remained unchanged at minus 2 in November Sweden recorded a 0.3% QoQ GDP growth in 3Q2014. Fixed investment rose 1.1% while exports grew 0.7% Denmark s GDP increased by 0.5% QoQ in 3Q2014 vs. the forecasts of contraction, driven mostly by investments Portugal s economy expanded 0.3% QoQ and 1.1% YoY in 3Q2014, led by an increase in private consumption Japan s core consumer price index rose 2.9% YoY in Oct. Household spending fell 4% YoY for a 7 th month in Oct Brazil crawls out of recession as GDP rose 0.1% QoQ in 3Q2014 after registering contraction in last two quarters India s 3Q2014 GDP gained 5.3% YoY, above forecasts. Fiscal deficit reached 90% of full year target till Oct 2014-end Canada s economy expanded at 2.8% annualized pace in 3Q2014 on higher consumer spending and crude exports Mexican factory exports jumped 5.4% MoM in Oct, fueled by a 8.5% increase in auto exports Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 17, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 9, CAC 40 4, Nikkei , Hang Seng 23, Brazil - Bovespa 54, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 28, Shanghai Comp 2, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES Dubai-based Amlak Finance signed a $2.7bn debt and financing restructuring deal with creditors Emaar Properties board approved a special cash dividend of AED9bn Dubai-based Topaz Energy & Marine plans to raise $550mn in debt to lower borrowing costs and fund expansion Al-Futtaim said it would invest $700mn in Egypt over 3 years and pay $30.5mn to the government as a part of landsale dispute settlement Gulf Capital completed the management buy-out of Destinations of the World and holds 57.5% controlling stake Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank signed an AED1.55bn shipbuilding financing agreement with Zakher Marine International National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi Financial Group completed an AED1.8bn financing deal for a redevelopment project in Central London Abraaj Investment Management raised its bid for acquiring Egypt s Bisco Misr from EGP73.91 to EGP79.1 per share Moody s raised Aldar Properties credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3 with a Stable outlook Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons Company s BoD recommended a SR500mn capital increase through rights issue Etihad Etisalat Company suspended its CEO on earnings issue, with effect from November 21, 2014 Islamic Development Bank s private sector arm plans to raise $1.2bn in long-term funds during FY Kuwaiti real estate firm, Mabanee plans to spend KD265mn to build phase IV of its KD610mn The Avenues mall Kuwait National Petroleum Company plans to spend $40bn till 2022 on a new refinery and clean fuels project National Bank of Kuwait led a consortium to arrange a syndicated loan of $1bn for Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company Qatar Insurance Company will raise QR910mn by issuing convertible notes to shore up its capital base Work on Aluminium Bahrain s sixth production line, estimated to cost $2.5bn, is expected to start in early 2015 Bahrain's Gulf Finance House plans to up its 47% stake in Khaleeji Commercial Bank to gain majority ownership Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 4, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 13, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 9, Istanbul 100 Index 86, , DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES The yen fell 0.7% to per dollar in the week as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called early elections after a report last week showed the nation slipped into a recession The euro appreciated 0.5% versus the dollar for the week, paring its monthly decline as ECB President s remarks for raising inflation boosted speculation that the central bank will broaden its bond-buying program Brazil s real weakened 1.97% in the week to 2.57 per dollar on speculation that a program by the central bank aimed at supporting the exchange rate may be tapered Indian rupee depreciated 0.42% in the week to per dollar, following sustained dollar demand from importers, including oil firms. Fiscal deficit reaching 89.6% of budgeted estimates also put pressure on rupee Russian ruble slumped 7.9% against the dollar in the week to settle at per dollar as a slump in oil threatened to deepen Russia s economic slowdown Malaysian ringgit posted a seventh weekly loss against the dollar and fell 0.83% in the week to 3.38 per dollar as 3Q2014 current-account surplus shrank to $2.3bn, the least since June 2013 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index Norwegian krone slid 3.3% in the week to 7.03 per dollar as oil prices tumbled further after the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its output target at 30mn barrels a day EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES WTI and Brent crude plunged 13.5% and 12.7%, respectively, in the week after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries took no action on production at a meeting in Vienna and maintained its collective production ceiling of 30mn barrels a day Gold lost 2.84% in the week while silver slumped 5.95% as a stronger dollar and plunging energy prices curbed demand for the metals as an inflation hedge Copper futures on LME fell 5.6% in the week as a rout in the energy market drove raw materials lower. Copper also declined as a strike was set to end at Peru s Antamina mine, owned by producers including BHP Billiton Spot palladium bucked the trend and rose 2.2% in the week due to worries over potential supply crunches from Russia Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index 1, Wheat futures on Chicago Board of Trade jumped 5.5% in the week as freezing temperatures from the US to Russia spurred crop-damage concerns Cotton futures on ICE rose 2% after a weekly US government export sales report showed a renewed buying appetite. Report showed China accounted for 1/3 rd of buying, easing worries of weak demand from world s largest consumer WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US 10-year yield fell 6.3 bps in the week as treasuries rallied on increased attractiveness of US securities vs. those of Group of Seven peers. A treasury auction of $35bn 5-yr notes in the week drew highest demand since Dec 2004 Euro-area government bonds yield fell across the region to record lows, amid speculation that a lack of price growth in the currency bloc will trigger further stimulus from the ECB. Italy s 10-yr yield fell 18 bps to 2.03%, German 10-yr bunds declined 7 bps to 0.7% while Spanish 10-yr yield dropped 12 bps to 1.89% in the week Greek 10-yr yield rose 40.5 bps in the week to 8.24% as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras government resisted pressure from its so-called troika of creditors for additional budget savings in 2015 of as much as 2.5bn UK 10-yr gilt yields fell to an 18-month low of 1.93% as reports showed house-price growth slowed and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined India s 10-yr bonds gained resulting in a 7.8 bps decline in yield to 8.28% during the week, on optimism that falling oil prices will slow inflation and create room for the central bank to cut interest rates Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr China cut its 14-day bond repurchase agreement (repo) to 3.2% from 3.4% as regulators step up efforts to reduce funding pressure on Chinese companies Colombia s central bank maintained its 4.5% benchmark interest rate for the third straight month as a slump in oil prices threatens to damp growth in South America s fastest-growing economy US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 China 7.88% 7.53% 2 Turkey 3.47% 3.55% 3 Czech Republic 2.75% 3.43% 4 Venezuela 2.55% 2.55% 5 Germany 2.55% 3.06% 6 Spain 2.38% 2.88% 7 Hong Kong 2.35% 2.41% 8 Estonia 2.29% 2.80% 9 Ireland 2.03% 2.54% 10 Nigeria 1.82% 0.96% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Argentina 81.94% 39.17% 2 Egypt 37.49% 33.63% 3 India 35.54% 35.03% 4 Dubai UAE 33.37% 33.36% 5 Qatar 28.43% 28.45% 6 Turkey 27.09% 22.97% 7 China 26.79% 24.92% 8 Serbia 24.90% 7.49% 9 Slovenia 24.08% 12.43% 10 Philippine 23.85% 22.42% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia -7.98% -7.98% 2 Norway -7.08% % 3 Cyprus -7.03% -6.57% 4 Colombia -4.56% -7.60% 5 Saudi Arabia -3.75% -3.78% 6 Qatar -3.72% -3.70% 7 Vietnam -3.65% -3.75% 8 Sri Lanka -3.35% -3.41% 9 Abu Dhabi UAE -3.23% -3.23% 10 Greece -3.20% -2.73% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia % % 2 Portugal % % 3 Cyprus % % 4 Greece % % 5 Nigeria % % 6 Malta % % 7 Austria % % 8 Mongolia -8.48% % 9 Latvia -7.94% % 10 Jamaica -7.67% % Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Ethanol 7.80% 2 Wheat 5.48% 3 Bean Meal 5.47% 4 Natural Gas/ICE 3.83% 5 Orange Juice 3.12% 6 Palladium 2.24% 7 Cotton 2.01% 8 Steel Rebar 1.81% 9 Corn 0.67% 10 Platinum 0.47% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Coffee 68.61% 2 Feeder Cattle 38.62% 3 Live Cattle 25.56% 4 Nickel 17.09% 5 Palladium 13.10% 6 Aluminium 11.32% 7 Ethanol 9.89% 8 Zinc 9.24% 9 Orange Juice 9.09% 10 Cocoa 6.31% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Brent Crude % 2 WTI Crude % 3 Gasoline -9.86% 4 Heat Oil -9.19% 5 Natural Gas -8.93% 6 Gasoil -6.74% 7 Silver -6.01% 8 Copper -5.56% 9 Feeder Cattle -3.89% 10 Zinc -3.61% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Brent Crude % 2 Gasoline % 3 Rubber % 4 WTI Crude % 5 Gasoil % 6 Heat Oil % 7 Cotton % 8 Soybeans % 9 Steel Rebar % 10 Silver % Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10