Weekly Market Review March 8, 2015 March 14, 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review March 8, 2015 March 14, 2015 March 15, 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS University of Michigan s US consumer sentiment index fell to 91.2 (preliminary) in Mar from 95.4 in Feb Retail sales slid for a third month by 0.6% in Feb after declining 0.8% in Jan as auto purchases dropped Small business optimism edged-up in Feb, bolstering the view that recent slowdown will be temporary US inventory-sales ratio reached to 1.35 months in Jan, highest since Jul 09 as inventories stood flat while sales fell Euro zone industrial production rose 1.2% YoY in Jan, helped by increase in France, Germany, Spain and Ireland Sentix Euro zone investor morale index climbed to 18.6 in Mar, its highest level since Aug 07, from 12.4 in Feb German exports declined 2.1% MoM in Jan, dropping more than forecast & slightly damping the economic outlook British manufacturing output unexpectedly slid 0.5% MoM in Jan, hit by a reduction in IT work & machinery sector French government lowered 1Q2015 growth forecast in its latest survey to 0.3% from 0.4% predicted earlier Greece s jobless rate increased in 4Q2014 to 26.1% from 25.5% in 3Q2014 as economy weakened Spanish public debt reached 97.7% of GDP by 2014-end vs. 92.1% in Government expects debt-to-gdp ratio to reach 100.3% in 2015 Ireland reported the fastest growth in EU in 2014 at 4.8%, recording a stunning recovery post 2008 property crash China s outstanding loan growth stood at 14.3% in Feb vs. 13.9% in Jan as banks lend $162.9bn of new loans Consumer price unexpectedly rose 1.4% in Feb while producer prices declined 4.8% Confidence at big Japanese manufacturers worsened in 1Q2015 as business survey sentiment index stood at +2.4 vs in 4Q2014 as a slumping yen ramped up the costs of raw material imports Core machinery orders fell 1.7% MoM in Jan while it was up 1.9% when compared with a year earlier India s consumer prices rose to 5.37% in Feb from 5.19% in Jan, underscoring the risk of rebound in inflation The IMF approved $17.5bn loan for Ukraine to help pull back the country from the verge of economic collapse Australia s jobless rate eased to 6.3% from 6.4% in Jan, exceeding 6% rate for a 9 th month even as hiring improved Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 17, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 11, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 23, Brazil - Bovespa 48, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 28, Shanghai Comp 3, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES The Dubai Financial Market approved a 7% cash dividend equivalent to AED560mn or 74% of FY2014 net profit Union Insurance Company s FY2014 net profit dropped 33.9% YoY to AED44.1mn from AED66.7mn in FY2013 Amlak Finance s FY2014 profit attributable to shareholders gained 22% YoY to AED58.9m National Bank of Abu Dhabi secured shareholders approval to issue $2bn worth bonds to enhance Tier-I capital Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Co. signed $490mn EPC contract for Integrated Gas Development Expansion Phase-I Dana gas will invest $350mn in Egypt over the next 30 months and expects to receive $185mn arrears by 2016-end Emirates Airline has hired eight banks to arrange for an Islamic bond guaranteed by British export credit agency Amlak Finance plans to re-list its shares on the Dubai Financial Market in April 2015 Dubai-based Arqaam Capital has chosen Rothschild to advise on its planned stock market flotation in 2H2015 Abu Dhabi-based Khalifa bin Butti Bin Omeir group plans to invest $2bn in key sectors of Egyptian economy Emirates Telecommunication Corporation entered into partnership with Ericsson to develop 5G technology Takween Advanced Ind. signed a SAR1.3bn Shari ah-compliant Murabaha facility with a syndicate of Saudi banks Saudi Aramco is close to secure $10bn loan which will replace an existing $4bn loan, due to mature later in 2015 Advanced Petrochemical Co. recommended the distribution of 7.5% dividend amounting SAR123mn for 1Q2015 Oman Telecommunications Co. seeks approval from shareholders for a planned OMR50mn Sukuk issue Ooredoo Kuwait partnered with Ericsson to deploy technology aimed at increasing network capacity and coverage Qatar-based Barwa Real Estate s FY2014 net profit soared 102% YoY to QAR2.78bn, proposes 22% cash dividend Qatar s Ooredoo reports 17% decline in FY2014 net income to QAR2.1bn, recommends 40% cash dividend Rating agency Fitch upgraded long-term issuer default ratings of seven Qatari banks with stable outlook Ithmaar bank s net loss reduced from $79.33mn in FY2013 to $8.85mn in FY2014; decides not to distribute dividend Gulf Hotels Group s shareholders approved distribution of 40% dividend, totaling BHD6.6mn and 5% bonus shares DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 3, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 12, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 9, Istanbul 100 Index 76, , Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES US dollar appreciated 3.2% in the week to close at 1.05 per euro while it also hit a new 12-year high of per euro as investors re-established bets for heftier US interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve s policy meeting next week UK pound fell 1.95% in the week to 1.47 US dollars per pound after official figures showed a dismal start to the year for the UK's construction industry with output falling 2.6% in January Brazil s real slumped 6.03% in the week to 3.25 per dollar, recording its 2 nd straight weekly decline on speculation that the government is struggling to reduce deficits, threatening the nation s investment-grade credit rating Indian rupee depreciated 1.3% in the week to per dollar tracking heavy outflows from the domestic equity market and fresh dollar buying from importers and banks Thailand s baht declined 1.07% in the week to per dollar, recording its biggest drop in five months as the Bank of Thailand lowered benchmark borrowing costs, joining a global wave of monetary easing after the Southeast Asian economy grew at its slowest pace in three years South Korea s won weakened 2.7% in the week to 1,128.7 per dollar as the Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut its seven-day repurchase rate to a record low of 1.75% Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES Brent and WTI crude for April delivery dipped 8.5% and 9.6%, respectively in the week as a monthly report from the International Energy Agency raised concerns that the glut of crude supplies and tightening storage capacity in the US may cause prices to weaken further Gold slid for a second week by 0.74% as the dollar rallied, cutting the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. Spot gold dropped 4.9% in the previous nine sessions, the longest slump since January 1998 Wheat futures rose 3.35% in the week in Chicago, climbing to 1-1/2 week highs on technical buying. Also, concerns about dry conditions in the southern US plains as the winter wheat crop emerges from dormancy provided support Corn futures edged-up 0.33% in the week as US Agriculture Department estimated that corn stockpiles before the next harvest would total 1.777bn bushels, down from its estimate in Feb of 1.827bn bushels Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Raw sugar futures on ICE closed the week down 5.5%, registering the fourth straight weekly loss while coffee futures declined 7.4% as top grower Brazil's currency sank. The weak Brazilian currency boosts incentives for producers there to lock in local-currency returns from dollar-denominated sugar and coffee sales Baltic dry index slipped 0.53% in the week to 562 points, continuing to remain weak as Chinese imports of commodities, especially iron ore and coal has gone down portraying dark futures for seaborne trade WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US treasuries posted a weekly gain and 10-year yield fell bps to 2.11% as a decline in wholesale inflation and a renewed drop in crude oil prices made investors more confident to own treasuries UK government bonds advanced in the week as their attractiveness increased since the start of the European Central Bank s 1.1tn bond-buying plan dragged down rates across Europe. 10-year yield plunged 23.9 bps to 1.71% Greece raised 1.3bn on March 11, 2015 in three-month treasury bills at 2.7% compared with 2.5% in an equivalent sale a month earlier, in an ongoing scramble for cash Russia s central bank cut its main interest rate to 14% from 15% on March 13, 2015 as it juggled the need to resuscitate its crisis-hit economy against fears of rising inflation Peru left the key rate unchanged for a second month at 3.25% in a bid to bolster the local currency amid increased volatility in financial and currency markets Thailand's central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate on March 11, 2015 by 25 bps to 1.75% in a bid to spark the stubbornly sluggish economy. This cut was the first rate change in a year Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 6.83% 6.83% 2 Bulgaria 4.39% 1.04% 3 China 4.06% 4.13% 4 Argentina 3.19% 2.92% 5 Ireland 3.17% -0.14% 6 Malta 3.09% -0.21% 7 Germany 3.04% -0.27% 8 Israel 2.35% 1.72% 9 Denmark 2.35% -1.09% 10 Hungary 2.09% -1.18% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Denmark 21.85% 5.53% 2 Germany 21.38% 5.30% 3 Portugal 19.64% 3.80% 4 Italy 19.47% 3.65% 5 Argentina 19.42% 15.11% 6 Ireland 18.90% 3.16% 7 Venezuela 17.90% 17.90% 8 Finland 17.76% 2.17% 9 France 17.27% 1.74% 10 Austria 16.53% 1.10% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Slovakia -9.53% % 2 Greece -9.42% % 3 Russia -7.73% -7.73% 4 Turkey -4.57% -5.15% 5 India -3.21% -4.43% 6 Ukraine -3.08% 1.84% 7 Peru -2.93% -2.98% 8 South Africa -2.90% -6.29% 9 Kazakhstan -2.88% -2.87% 10 Brazil -2.77% -8.30% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Kazakhstan % % 2 Colombia % % 3 Peru % % 4 Nigeria % % 5 Turkey % % 6 Cyprus -8.30% % 7 Mongolia -6.99% % 8 Greece -6.78% % 9 Bulgaria -4.75% % 10 Mauritius -4.62% % Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Rough Rice 3.37% 2 Wheat 3.35% 3 Natural Gas 2.94% 4 Aluminium 2.52% 5 Copper 2.09% 6 Rubber 2.01% 7 Feeder Cattle 1.62% 8 Steel Rebar 1.60% 9 Corn 0.33% 10 Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 22.78% 2 Rubber 10.73% 3 Gasoil 2.24% 4 Aluminium 1.97% 5 Cotton 0.38% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Gasoil % 2 WTI Crude -9.61% 3 Brent Crude -8.47% 4 Heat Oil -8.35% 5 Coffee -7.36% 6 Gasoline -6.36% 7 Lean Hogs -6.09% 8 Sugar -5.51% 9 Tin -4.36% 10 Cocoa -4.00% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Coffee % 2 Lean Hogs % 3 Orange Juice % 4 Lumber % 5 WTI Crude % 6 Steel Rebar % 7 Wheat % 8 Sugar % 9 Ethanol % 10 Tin % Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10