Weekly Market Review January 25, 2015 January 31, 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review January 25, 2015 January 31, 2015 February 1, 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US economy grew at 2.6% annualized rate in 4Q2014, well below the 5% pace recorded in 3Q2014 Consumer spending, accounting for 70% of the economy, climbed at 4.3% rate, biggest gain since 1Q2006 Business investment increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in 4Q2014 vs. 7.7% gain in 3Q2014 Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 98.1 in Jan from 93.6 in Dec Initial jobless claims fell 43,000 to 265,000 for the week ended Jan 24, the lowest since Apr 2000 Markit s flash services sector PMI rose to 54.0 in Jan from 53.3 in Dec Euro zone consumer prices declined 0.6% YoY in Jan after falling 0.2% in Dec, led by 8.9% plunge in energy prices Consumer confidence in Jan improved to a 6-month high of -8.5 from in Dec German government raised 2015 growth forecast to 1.5% from earlier 1.3% after economy expanded by 1.5% in 14 Greek retail sales by volume dropped 1.5% YoY in Nov, after a downwardly revised 2.1% increase in Oct Britain s economy grew by 2.6% in 2014, up from 1.7% in Q2014 growth fell to 0.5% vs. 0.7% gain in 3Q2014 French consumer spending unexpectedly climbed 1.5% MoM in Dec, led by a 6.9% jump in energy spending Spain, the Euro zone s 4 th largest economy, expanded by 1.4% in 2014 after contracting by 1.2% in 2013 China s factory profits increased 3.3% in 2014, the weakest rate in 2 years as economic growth slipped to 24-yr low Japan s consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.5% YoY, below the median projection of 2.6% inflation Industrial output rose 1.0% MoM in Dec, a sign that the economy is gradually emerging from doldrums Brazil's jobless rate fell to 4.3% in Dec from 4.8% in Nov. Real wages fell 1.8% MoM in Dec while it rose 1.6% YoY Brazil posted a public sector primary deficit equal to 0.63% of GDP in 2014, 1 st budget deficit in 12 years Russia s Statistics Service s preliminary data showed economy grew by 0.6% in 2014 to 70.98tn rubles (nominal) S&P cut Russia's rating from BBB- to BB+, citing weak growth prospects due to low oil prices & sanctions South Korea's industrial output in Dec was up 3% MoM, followed by a revised 1.0% rise in Nov, fastest since Sep 09 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 1, DJI 17, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 10, CAC 40 4, Nikkei , Hang Seng 24, Brazil - Bovespa 46, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 29, Shanghai Comp 3, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES National Bank of Abu Dhabi reported 17.6% YoY increase in FY2014 net profit to AED5.58bn Union National Bank reported AED2.02bn net profit for FY2014, up 16% YoY; recommends 25% cash dividend Union Properties FY2014 net profit slumped 45.6% from FY2013 to AED858.6mn Dubai Islamic Bank s FY2014 net profit surged 63% YoY to AED2.8bn. Bank recommended 40% cash dividend First Gulf Bank reports 18% rise in FY2014 net profit to AED5.66bn; recommends 100% cash dividend, 15.38% bonus Commercial Bank of Dubai s FY2014 net profit jumps 19% YoY to AED1.2bn; recommends 25% dividend & bonus National Bank of Fujairah s subsidiary, NBF Capital concluded an AED260mn loan syndication for Universal Hospital Emirates NBD Capital acted as the sole coordinator and bookrunner for Stanbic Bank Uganda s $85mn loan Etisalat successfully completed the sale of its shareholdings in west African operations, receiving 474mn Arabtec Holding s subsidiary, Target Engineering Construction won two contracts worth AED560mn UAE s SCA approved Aabar Petroleum Investments application to buy 100mn shares in Arabtec Holding Zain KSA has sought shareholder s approval to reduce the share capital from SR10.8bn to SR5.84bn Samba Financial Group s BoD proposed increasing the bank's capital by SR8bn through the issue of bonus shares Saudi CMA approved Al-Tayyar Travel Group Holding Co s request to increase its capital from SR1bn to SR2bn An Iraqi court dismissed a $4.5bn lawsuit against Kuwait s Zain over its 2007 acquisition of an Iraqi telecom co. Saudi Arabia s Fawaz Alhokair Group plans to raise around $400mn from the IPO of Egyptian malls unit Qatar Insurance Company reported a 33% YoY rise in its FY2014 net profit to QR1bn Masraf Al Rayan posted a 17.6% rise in its FY2014 net profit to QR2bn; plans to launch an ETF and Sukuk fund Oman s National Biscuit Industries reported an 11% increase in FY2014 net profit to OMR639.7mn Bank Muscat s board proposed 25% cash dividend, 5% bonus shares and 15% mandatory convertible bonds Bahrain s BBK plans first debt issue since 2010 to refinance an existing $500mn bond maturing in October 2015 DFMGI 1 year performance Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 3, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 8, Qatar Index 11, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance 1, Egypt EGX 30 9, Istanbul 100 Index 88, , Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES Euro appreciated 0.78% in the week to US dollar after euro witnessed some consolidation of the aggressive selling linked to the quantitative easing program unveiled by the European Central Bank on Jan 22 Japanese yen appreciated 0.24% in the week to per dollar as the US currency slipped after data showed that the American economy grew more slowly than expected in the last three months of 2014 Brazil s real depreciated 3.98% in the week to 2.68 per dollar as Finance Minister Joaquim Levy suggested the government had no intention of keeping the currency stronger than the market would naturally dictate Ruble plunged 9% in the week to per dollar after the Central Bank of Russia shocked markets with a rate cut Canada s dollar weakened 2.5% in the week to 1.27 per US dollar, registering a 10 th week fall after the Bank of Canada last week surprised markets by reducing its benchmark rate for the first time since 2010 to counter the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the nation s largest export Norwegian krone strengthened 0.47% against the dollar in the week to per dollar after Norges Bank, Norway s central bank, said it would buy more kroner for its sovereign-wealth fund Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES WTI crude futures gained 5.8% in the week after data showed US drillers were slamming the brakes on the shale drilling boom. The number of US rigs in operation fell by another 94 in the past week, while Canadian producers took 11 rigs offline Wheat futures lost 5.14% in the week on commodity fund s liquidation at the month's end amid ample world stocks and fears of slowing growth. World wheat production is projected at a record high for as the US Agriculture Department in Jan 2015 raised its forecast of global ending stocks Palm oil futures prices fell 4.86% in the week as palm oil prices come under pressure from slowing demand in both the food and fuel sectors and as floods subsided in Malaysia, damping prospects of prolonged supply tightness Corn futures declined 4.3% in the week pressured by slowing demand for corn-based fuel, ethanol as crude oil prices weaken, reducing the appeal of renewable fuels made mainly from grains and vegetable oils Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Cocoa futures closed 2.25% down in the week due to weaker demand from processors of the key chocolate ingredient and large harvests of the beans Baltic dry index plunged 15.6% in the week as slowing growth in China s demand for cargoes compounds the effect of a fleet glut. Freight rates for all the vessel types within the measure declined WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US 10-year yields dropped 15.6 bps in the week to 1.64% after slower-than-anticipated economic growth encouraged speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate hikes UK 10-year gilts rose for a fifth week, sending the yields down 14.8 bps to 1.33% as investors sought higher-yielding alternatives to euro-area debt and on speculation Bank of England borrowing costs will stay subdued Greek 10-year yield surged 269 bps in the week to 10.98% after the country's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece will not seek an extension to its bailout program when it ends in February. Instead, Varoufakis assured that the new government will implement the necessary reforms to get Greece back on track Russia s central bank unexpectedly cut its one-week minimum auction repo rate by two percentage points to 15% as fears of recession mount in the country following the fall in global oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis Mexico s central bank kept its main interest rate at a record low of 3% as policymakers eyed the risk that a sharply weaker peso could fan consumer prices higher while also noting big risks to growth Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Saudi Arabia 5.42% 5.31% 2 Namibia 4.29% 2.12% 3 South Africa 2.91% 0.77% 4 Switzerland 2.74% -1.73% 5 Sweden 2.42% 3.03% 6 Philippine 1.87% 2.00% 7 Qatar 1.72% 1.73% 8 Luxembourg 1.67% 2.46% 9 Slovakia 1.53% 2.32% 10 Montenegro 1.40% 2.19% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Egypt 10.27% 3.92% 2 Finland 9.12% 1.84% 3 Germany 9.06% 1.79% 4 Denmark 8.93% 1.72% 5 Estonia 8.00% 0.80% 6 Italy 7.84% 0.65% 7 France 7.76% 0.57% 8 Belgium 7.46% 0.29% 9 Sweden 7.45% 1.24% 10 Portugal 7.20% 0.05% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Greece % % 2 Russia % % 3 Kazakhstan -6.46% -6.78% 4 Dubai UAE -5.37% -5.37% 5 China -4.22% -4.55% 6 Mexico -3.98% -6.03% 7 Brazil -3.83% -7.51% 8 Venezuela -3.08% -3.08% 9 Portugal -2.94% -2.19% 10 Argentina -2.83% -3.00% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Nigeria % % 2 Greece % % 3 Kazakhstan % % 4 Cyprus -9.28% % 5 Colombia -8.19% % 6 Peru -7.60% % 7 Russia -6.75% -6.75% 8 Switzerland -6.66% 0.86% 9 Brazil -6.20% -7.08% 10 Mexico -5.09% -6.52% Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Brent Crude 8.61% 2 Natural Gas 7.52% 3 Gasoline 6.09% 4 WTI Crude 5.81% 5 Nickel 5.68% 6 Cotton 3.60% 7 Lumber 3.31% 8 Live Cattle 2.99% 9 Rubber 2.78% 10 Heat Oil 2.40% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Silver 9.89% 2 Gold 8.35% 3 Platinum 2.78% 4 Sugar 1.86% 5 Aluminium 0.62% 6 Nickel 0.10% 7 Lead 0.08% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Silver -5.75% 2 Wheat -5.14% 3 Soybean Oil -5.06% 4 Orange Juice -4.92% 5 Palm Oil -4.86% 6 Steel Rebar -4.70% 7 Ethanol -4.41% 8 Corn -4.33% 9 Rough Rice -4.00% 10 Lean Hogs -2.63% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lean Hogs % 2 Steel Rebar % 3 Ethanol % 4 Wheat % 5 Copper % 6 WTI Crude % 7 Bean Meal -9.52% 8 Brent Crude -8.97% 9 Heat Oil -8.68% 10 Rough Rice -8.01% Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10