U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook

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Transcription:

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division

Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21

U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q3 211 Real GDP Trillion 2 Dollars Log Scale $14.- $11.- $9.4- $7.7- $6.3- $.2- Actual Potential $4.2-197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

Comparing Recessions GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) Duration of Recession GDP Growth in the following year GDP Growth in the following 2 years Average monthly payroll employment growth in year following trough (thous.) Average monthly payroll employment growth in 2 years following trough (thous.) Trough May 194 (II). (%) 129 148 13-2. (%) 1 (months) 7.9 (%) April 198 (II) -3.1 8 9.6.7 191 18 12 February 1961 (I) -. 1 7..6 136 111 1 November 197 (IV) -.2 11 4..7 12 19 6 March 197 (I) -3.2 16 6.2 4.7 2 198 9 November 1982 (IV) -2.6 16 7.7 6.7 27 3 12 March 1991(I) -1.4 8 2.6 3. -2 8 23 November 21 (IV) +.7 8 1.9 2.9-47 -31 39 June 29 (II) -.1 18 3.3 2. -43 23 N/A Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak

Personal Consumption Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 9 6 3-3 -6 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures -9 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Percent Change 3 1. -1. Real Disposable Income Per Capita -3 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Trillion $ 7 6 Household Wealth 4 3 2 1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21

Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ 6 Household Assets 4 3 Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets 2 1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Percent of Disposable Personal Income 1 Trillion $ 2 1 1 Household Liabilities 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 14 13 Consumer Debt Service 12 11 1 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211

Net National Savings % of GDP 8% Net Savings Rate 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 % of GDP 9% Savings Components 6% 3% % -3% -6% -9% -12% Government Household Corporate 198 198 199 199 2 2 21

Housing Market Trends Thous. of Units, SAAR 2 2 1 1 28 24 2 16 12 Housing Starts 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 Sales Price, Thous. $ Median Home Prices Existing Homes New Homes 8 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 Thous. of Units, SAAR 12 7 New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) 2 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 Thous. of Units, SAAR 7 3 Home Sales New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) Housing Inventory 1 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 7 6 4 3 2 4 3 2 1

Percent 7 6 4 3 1 Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit Standards on Residential Loans -1 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Housing Market Trends 2 18 16 14 12 1 Housing Affordability Index 8 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Percent, SA 3 2 1 Mortgage Delinquency Rates 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Conventional Subprime: Total Past Due Conventional Prime: Total Past Due Percent, SA 4 3 2 1 Mortgage Foreclosure Rates 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 All Loans Conventional Subprime

Percent Change, Annual Rate 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Investment Real Private Investment in Equipment & Software 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Percent Change, Annual Rate 3 1 - -2 Real Private Investment - Structures -4 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Billion Chained 2$, Annual Rate 1 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12-1 Real Change in Private Inventories 198 198 199 199 2 2 21

Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 Industrial Production - -1-1 -2 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Investment Indicators SAAR, Billion $ 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 Corporate Profits 1,2 1, 8 6 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 6 Purchasing Managers Index 6 4 4 3 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 1.2 1.47 1.42 1.37 1.32 1.27 Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Total Business 1.22 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21

Investment Sub-Indicators SA, 2=1 12 11 11 1 1 9 ATA Truck Tonnage Index 9 26 27 28 29 21 211 6 month moving average; thous. tons 1,4 9 Boxboard Production 4-1 26 27 28 29 21 211 6-month moving average, thousands 3 2 2 1 1 Intermodal Rail Carloadings 26 27 28 29 21 211 thous, 6-month moving average 6 4 Total Rail Carloadings 3 26 27 28 29 21 211

SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ U.S. Trade -2-4 -6-8 Real Net Exports of Goods and Services 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Billions $, YTD 2 2 1 1 Trade Flows of Top Trading Partners EU Canada China Mexico Japan Exports Imports

Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) 11 1 9 8 7 Exchange Rates U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate 6 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 US$/Euro; US$/Pound; US$/1Yen 2. 2. 1. 1.. Euro UK Japan. 2 22 24 26 28 21

Percent Change, Annual Rate 2. 1.. -1. -2. Mexico -3. 27 28 29 21 211 Real GDP Growth Canada Percent Change, Year to Year 2 1 1 - -1 China India Japan -1 27 28 29 21 211 Percent Change, Annual Rate 3. Spain Portugal 2. Italy Ireland 1. Greece. -1. -2. 27 28 29 21 211 Percent Change, Annual Rate 1... -. UK -1. France -1. Germany -2. 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Oxford Economics

Percent Change, Year to Year 8 6 4 2-2 Canada Mexico 27 28 29 21 211 Inflation (Consumer Price Index) Percent Change, Year to Year 2 16 12 8 4-4 China India Japan 27 28 29 21 211 Percent Change, Year to Year 1 - Spain Portugal Italy Ireland -1 Greece 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Oxford Economics Percent Change, Year to Year 6 4 3 2 1-1 UK France Germany 27 28 29 21 211

Unemployment Rates Percent Percent 1 8 1 8 6 6 4 4 2 Canada Mexico 2 China India Japan 27 28 29 21 211 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 2 Spain Portugal 2 Italy Ireland 1 Greece 1 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 1 8 6 4 UK 2 France Germany 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Oxford Economics

Percent 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 Canada Mexico 1 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 2 1 1 Spain Italy Greece Source: Oxford Economics Portugal Ireland 27 28 29 21 211 Interest Rates (1 Year Government Bonds) Percent 1 9 8 7 6 4 China India Japan 3 2 1 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 6 4 3 2 1 UK France Germany 27 28 29 21 211

Percent Change 1 12 Real GDP Growth of Top Trading Partners 9 6 3-3 World EU Canada China Mexico Japan Germany UK S. Korea Brazil Taiwan France NLD Saudi Arabia India Ven Singapore Source: Oxford Economics, USCC Forecast 21 211 212

Billions $ 7 6 4 3 U.S. Bank Exposure to Europe Public Sector Banks Non-bank Private Sector Derivatives and Other Exposures 2 1 France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Source: Bank for International Settlements

Billions $ 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, European Bank Exposure to Periphery Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain All European Banks Belgium France Germany Switzerland UK Source: Bank for International Settlements

Million 14 13 Total Nonfarm Jobs Labor Market Million 1 14 Household Employment 12 13 12 11 11 1 1 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average 7 6 4 3 Initial Unemployment Claims 2 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 Percent 12 1 8 6 4 Unemployment Rate November: 8.6 percent 2 1991 1993 199 1997 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211

Thousands 3 2 2 1 1 Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Labor Market Thousands 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Part-time for Economic Reasons 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 SA, percent 68 66 64 Civilian Participation Rate 62 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 Median Weeks Unemployed, SA 3 2 2 Duration of Unemployment 1 1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21

Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate 1 1 - -1 Inflation Consumer Price Index -1 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate 1 8 6 4 Core Consumer Price Index 2 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211

$/gallon $. $4. $3. $2. $1. Oil, Gas, and Diesel Prices $/barrel $1. $1. $. $. 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: EIA, Dept of Energy Gas Diesel WTI (Right Axis) $. 1967 = 1 6 4 3 2 1 Spot Market Price Index: All Commodities 2 22 24 26 28 21 1967 = 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 Spot Market Price Index: Metals 2 22 24 26 28 21

Interest Rates & Spreads Percent 8. 7. 1-Year Treasury Note Yield 6.. 4. 3. 2. 1. 3-Month Treasury Note Yield. 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 4 3 2 1 TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3- Month Treasury 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield. 1997 1998 2 22 24 27 29 211

Fed Policy Billions $ 3, 2, Bank Assets and Liabilities 2, 1, 1, 28 Jan Apr. July Oct. 29 Jan Apr Jul Oct 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct 211 Jan Apr Jul Oct Excess Required Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks Large Small 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Billions $ 1,8 1,3 8 3 Consumer Credit Outstanding Revolving Nonrevolving -22 26 27 28 29 21 211 Billions $ 6 4 3 2 1 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Percent 12 1 8 6 4 2 Home Equity Loans Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks C&I Loans Credit Cards Residential Real Estate Commercial Real Estate Large Small 2 26 27 28 29 21 211

CBO s Baseline (August 211) Budget Deficit Billions $ - -1, -1, -2, 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 Deficit to GDP Percent of GDP - -1-1 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22

Government Debt (CBO s Baseline August 211) Billions $ 2, Debt 1, 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 Percent of GDP 8 6 4 2 Debt to GDP 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22

Government Revenues and Outlays (% of GDP) 3 2 Forecast 2 1 1 Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)

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