Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction)

Transcription

1 Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis ( = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction) AE Recessions' Range*** AE Recessions** Big Five Financial Crisis* U.K. Euro zone U.S. Years before recession Years after recession OECD Forecast (Years 5-6) Source: OECD June 213 Forecasts, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and Reinhart (28), Finance Canada Calculations *Big Five financial crisis include Spain (1977), Norway (1987), Finland (1991), Sweden (1991) and Japan (1992). **Recessions (i.e, two straight quarters of contraction in G2 advanced economies since 196 *** range limits are average of best/worst three AE recessions Figure 2: IMF WEO Forecasts of Global GDP Growth (Percent Growth) 5.5 % Apr-211 Oct-211 Apr-212 Oct-212 Apr-213 Jul-213 Actual Source: IMF

2 Figure 3: G-2 Employment (Persons Employed, Millions) Source: IFS. India and Saudi Arabia are excluded. 3% Figure 4: Current Account Imbalances (Percent of G-2 GDP) 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% G-2 Surplus ex. Oil Exporters G-2 Oil Exporters G-2 Deficit Source: April 213 WEO. Oil Exporters = Russia and Saudi Arabia.

3 Percent of GDP Percent of GDP Fiscal Policy Figure 5: IMF Projections of General Government Deficits for 213 (Percent of GDP; Red Diamond is Deficit Target Based on 21 Deficit) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Spain UK US EU 213 Projections 213 Targets Target Upper Bound Target Lower Bound Source: April 213 Fiscal Monitor; Updated data from 213 IMF Article IV for France, Germany, Spain, US Note: Korea has a fiscal surplus and Japan was exempt from the Toronto Commitment. For the Accountability Assessment, the UK is assessed using its cyclically adjusted primary balance, and using a target based on the Spring 21 WEO. The US is assessed using IMF forecasts of the federal government deficits. Figure 6: IMF Projections of the Change in General Government Debt Levels from 215 to 216 and 216 to 217 in Toronto Fiscal Commitment Countries (Percent of GDP) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Korea Spain UK US EU Projected Change in Gross Debt-to GDP Ratio Projected Change in Gross Debt-to GDP Ratio Source: April 213 WEO; Updated data from 213 IMF Article IV for France, Germany, Spain, US Note: Japan was exempt from the Toronto Commitments.

4 Percent of Potential GDP Percent of Potential GDP Figure 7: IMF Projections of the Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances (Percent of Potential GDP; Coloured Bar Indicates Degree of Fiscal Contraction/Expansion Each Year) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US Source: April 213 Fiscal Monitor; Updated 213 IMF Article IV data for Spain; France data was calculated for their 213 IMF Article IV but not released. Measures of CAPB are based on estimates of potential output, revenues, and expenditures. 6 4 Figure 8: IMF Projections of Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance Levels (Percent of Potential GDP) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US Source: April 213 WEO; Updated 213 IMF Article IV data for Spain; France data was calculated for their 213 IMF Article IV but not released. Measures of CAPB are based on estimates of potential output, revenues, and expenditures.

5 Percent of GDP Percent of GDP Figure 9: General Government Debt Levels Advanced Economies (Percent of GDP) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US EU Source: April 213 WEO. Updated data from 213 IMF Article IV s for France, Germany, Japan, Spain, US 15 Figure 1: IMF Projections of General Government Deficits (Percent of GDP) Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Source: April 213 Fiscal Monitor

6 Percent of GDP Figure 11: General Government Debt Levels Emerging Market Economies (Percent of GDP) Pre-crisis (27) Current (213) IMF Projection (218) Source: April 213 WEO

7 Precent Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Policies Figure 12: Inflation in the G-2 (Latest Relevant Observation Represented by Blue Bar; Red Dashes Show Definition of Price Stability) Note: Inflation rates and price stability targets based on members submissions or the latest available data. Some members monetary policy objectives include more than price stability. Exchange Rate Classification No Separate Legal Tender Currency Board Conventional Peg Stabilized Arrangement Crawling Peg Crawl-like Arrangement Other Managed Arrangement Floating Free Floating Table 1: IMF Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes in 211 and 212 Source: IMF s Enhanced Accountability Assessment G-2 Members Saudi Arabia China, Argentina Russia Brazil, India, Indonesia, Korea, South Africa, Turkey Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom, United States

8 Figure 13: US Dollar Exchange Rates up to the Week of August 16, 213 (Week of September 27, 29=; Upwards movement is an appreciation) 6 29:9 21:9 211:9 212:9 Australia Canada Euro area :9 21:9 211:9 212:9 Japan Korea United Kingdom :9 21:9 211:9 212:9 Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia :9 21:9 211:9 212:9 Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Source: Haver Analytics

9 Figure 14: NEER in the G-2 up to July, 213 (September 29=; Upwards movement is an appreciation) Australia Canada Euro Area Japan Korea United Kingdom United States Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Source: BIS

10 Figure 15: REER in the G-2 up to July, 213 (September 29=; Upwards movement is an appreciation) Australia Canada Euro area Japan Korea United Kingdom United States Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Source: BIS

11 Figure 16: Annual Change in Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Percentage of Nominal USD GDP 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% % 6% 4% 2% % -2% Source: Haver Analytics

12 Structural Reforms Figure 17: Progress by Structural Reform Commitment Grouping Pending Ongoing Completed Product market regulation Labour market regulations Taxation Human capital Financial regulation Other % Source: Los Cabos Templates and OECD Calculations