How Strong is the US Economy?
|
|
|
- Marsha Bruce
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H How Strong is the US Economy? December 2 Asha Bangalore. Senior Vice President PH: agb3@ntrs.com 2 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
2 Strong self-sustained economic growth is the goal. 5. Real Gross Domestic Product % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Real Gross Domestic Product % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics -. 2 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
3 Disappointing economic recovery has prevented strong employment gains. 25.% Real Gross Domestic Product 13 Quarters After A Recession Ends (percent change from trough) 2.% 19.8% 19.6% 18.5% 15.% 15.3% 15.8%.%.3%.1% 7.% 5.%.% 1961-Q1 197-Q 1975-Q Q 1991-Q1 21-Q 29-Q2 (Current) Last Quarter of Recession Average 3 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
4 Unemployment and Inflation
5 The high jobless rate after three years of economic recovery is the Fed s primary concern. Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
6 The duration of unemployment has a significant adverse impact not only in the near term but also in the long run. Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over: % of Civilians Unemployed SA, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
7 The sub-par trend of hiring has turned up in the last four months, but the coast is not clear yet. 8 Change in Total Nonfarm Employment SA, Thous Change in Total Nonfarm Employment 3-month MovingAverage SA, Thous Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics - 7 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
8 Hiring has generally been tepid from a historical perspective 8 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
9 Inflation is not on the top of the Fed s worry list. 6 PCE: Chain Price Index % Change - Year to Year SA, 25= PCE less Food & Energy: Chain Price Index % Change - Year to Year SA, 25= 6 Fed s inflation target is 2.% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics -2 9 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
10 Inflation expectations are contained, for now. Inflation Expectations 5-Year Nominal minus 5-Year TIP Rate % Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics 13-3 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
11 Tracking Risks to Economic Growth
12 Consumer spending remains problematic as underlying fundamentals rest on shaky ground. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 3-month %Change-ann SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
13 Rebuilding of household net worth will be a gradual process given that a large part has to come from savings and not from changes in valuation of assets. Households: Net Worth as a % of Disposable Personal Income Households: Debt as a % of Disposable Personal Income Source: Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
14 On the positive side, payment obligations of households show a substantial reduction. 19 Household Financial Obligation Ratio SA, % Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
15 Housing data suggest that a small turnaround is in place 2 Housing Starts 3-month MovingAverage SAAR, Thous.Units New 1-Family Houses Sold: United States 3-month MovingAverage SAAR, Thous Sources: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
16 but there are lingering concerns about the durability of the recovery. 75 Total Existing Home Sales, United States 3-month MovingAverage SAAR, Thous Existing Single-Family Home Sales, United States 3-month MovingAverage SAAR, Thous Sources: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics 3 16 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
17 Stability of home prices is tied to labor market developments. 2 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 2 % Change - Year to Year NSA, Jan-= CoreLogic National House Price Index: Month Change NSA, % Sources: Standard & Poor's, CoreLogic /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
18 Capital expenditures are unlikely to make a significantly strong contribution to GDP in the quarters ahead Real Private Nonresidential Investment: Equipment & Software % Change - Year to Year SAAR,Bil.Chn.25$ CEO Business Confidence Survey: Business Executive Confidence 3 5+=Positive (Advanced 3 quarters) Sources: BEA, CB /Haver Northern Trust Global Economic Research
19 Destination of U.S Exports Rest of World, 8% Europe, 22% Mexico, Central & South America, 25% Pacific Rim excluding China & Japan, 1% China, 7% Canada, 19% Japan, 5% 19 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
20 The European sovereign debt crisis and a slower pace of business activity in Asian economies are factors that will trim export growth. 3 Real Exports of Goods & Services % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Real Exports of Goods & Services % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics -3 2 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
21 Government spending should continue to be a drag on economic growth.. Real Federal Government Consumption & Gross Investment % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Real State & Local Govt Consumption & Gross Investment % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.25$ Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
22 Bank credit - A closely tracked indicator has a compelling story to tell. 2 Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks % Federal Funds [effective] Rate % p.a Sources: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
23 The economy has experienced the most severe credit contraction of the entire post-war period. Recent data point to a turnaround in bank credit, which is supportive of economic growth. Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks % Change - Year to Year SA, Bil.$ Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate: Upper Limit EOP, % Sources: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Board Northern Trust Global Economic Research
24 The historical relationship between credit and economic activity is significant and noteworthy Gross Domestic Product % Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$ Break-Adjusted Bank Credit: All Commercial Banks % Change - Year to Year SA, Bil.$ r = Sources: BEA, FRB/H /Haver Northern Trust Global Economic Research
25 China: Is another episode of soft landing likely? China: Real GDP: Year-to-Year Percent Change % Source: China National Bureau of Statistics /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
26 China: Inflation is moderating and providing room for the central bank to put in place additional new monetary policy support. China: Consumer Price Index NSA, year/year % chg Source: China National Bureau of Statistics /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
27 Trade data of China are an important signal of the likely trend of global economic growth. 8 China: Merchandise Imports, cif % Change - Year to Year SA, Bil.Yuan China: Merchandise Exports, fob % Change - Year to Year SA, Bil.Yuan Sources: China Customs /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
28 The European Union has three inter-related challenges - a debt crisis, a credit crunch, and an economic setback. EA 17: GDP at 2 Prices {Flash Estimate} SA/WDA, qtr/qtr %chg Germany: Gross Domestic Product % Change - Period to Period SA/WDA, Bil.Chn.25.Euros Sources: Statistical Office of the European Communities /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
29 Labor market issues and economic stagnation are here for a while. 28 EA 17: Unemployment Rate (SA, %) Spain: Harmonized Unemployment Rate (SA, %) Italy: Harmonized Unemployment Rate (SA, %) Germany: Harmonized Unemployment Rate (SA, %) Sources: EUROSTAT /Haver 9 29 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
30 EU summit outcomes are important but insufficient. Lending to the private sector has to resume to ensure a meaningful economic recovery. Eurozone: MFI Loans to Private Sector % Change - Year to Year EOP, NSA, Bil.Euros Source: European Central Bank /Haver Analytics Northern Trust Global Economic Research
31 Monetary Policy Options and Forecast
32 The Fed has offered unlimited support until labor market conditions a post substantial improvement. 32 Reserve Bank Credit Outstanding EOP, Bil.$ Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate: Upper Limit 16 % Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics 9 32 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
33 U.S. Economic Outlook 2a 2f 213f Real GDP Growth (Q/Q) 2.% 1.6% 1.9% Consumer Price Index (Q/Q) 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% Unemployment Rate (EOP) 8.7% 7.8% 7.3% Federal funds rate (EOP).7%.15%.15% -Year Treasury Yield (EOP) 2.5% 1.8% 2.15% a=actual f=forecast Source: Haver Analytics/The Northern Trust Co. 33 Northern Trust Global Economic Research
34 Thank You
Economic Update: Will Tailwinds Offset Headwinds in 2012? Asha Bangalore
N O R T H E R N T R U S T Economic Update: Will Tailwinds Offset Headwinds in 2? Asha Bangalore Senior Vice President & Economist, Northern Trust (3) 444-4146, agb3@ntrs.com 1 2 Northern Trust Corporation
2012 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad
N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H 212 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad December 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312..15 plk1@ntrs.com
Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
CPI-U: All Items, =100 SA, M/M %Change CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy % Change - Period to Period SA, =100 0.
Inflation: Signs of Moderation in September Data October 9, Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up.% in September, following gains of.5% and.5% in July and August, respectively.
Growth in Domestic Private Final Demand: It s Falling -- Can It Get Up? August 7, 2007
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 3..15 3.557.2675 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist
The 2011 Economic Outlook: Credit Given Where Credit Is Due
NORTHERN TRUST GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH The 211 Economic Outlook: Credit Given Where Credit Is Due Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist Phone: 312.444.4145 plk1@ntrs.com January 211 211 Northern Trust Corporation
Households: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines. Chart 1
Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Households: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines June 9, 2 Households experienced another quarter of gains in their net worth without improvements in real estate
Twin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending
Twin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending September 1, 11 Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The elevated unemployment rate remains at the top of the Fed s worry list. Nearly as important is the recent
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note January 19, Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December,
Recession Now Putting Our Forecast Where Our Mouth Has Been February 4, 2008
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 312..15 312.557.2675 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist
The Worst Recession since the Great Depression? Perhaps, But December 15, 2008
Northern Trust Global Economic Research South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 312..1 312.7.267 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist 312..16
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first
Will the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up?
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 603 northerntrust.com Paul Kasriel plk1@ntrs.com Will the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up? May 31, 20 Each month
Real Gross Domestic Product
Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product: Anemic First-Half, Revisions Indicate Economy Still in Recovery Phase July 9, The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
Dollar Volume of Single-Family Home Sales* / Nominal GDP percent 18
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 3 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 3..15 3.557.75 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist 3..1
Economic and Banking Outlook. Major issues
/1/9 Economic and Banking Outlook May 9 Major issues Consumer spending recovering? Investment t spending lagging? Housing inventories will take years to clear Bank credit losses will remain high through
United States. Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level. Industrial Production Index, 2010=100. Unemployment Rate Percent
United States Summary Indicators Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level Industrial Production Index, 2010=100 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 108 110 112 114 114.9 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
February 22, Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Chief Economist 31..15 31.557.675 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist 31..16 31.557.675
U.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 9
Virginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013
Virginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013 Ann Battle Macheras Vice President, Regional Research Overview I. National Economic
Downward Trend of Consumer Spending Stands Out, Moderation in Inflation Underway May 30, Chart 1
Northern Trust Global Economic Research South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com Downward Trend of Consumer Spending Stands Out, Moderation in Inflation Underway
Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
Economic Highlights. ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1. Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2. Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3
December 1, 2010 Economic Highlights Manufacturing ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1 Employment Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2 Economic Activity Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3 Prices
Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
Decline in Household Net Worth Raises Many Questions June 5, 2008
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Decline in Household Net Worth Raises Many Questions June 5, 2 Household net worth fell $1.696 trillion in
To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question
Northern Trust Global Economic Research South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Chief Economist 312.444.414 312.7.267 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist 312.444.4146
Pacific Northwest Economic Development Council Conference Mt. Hood, Oregon June 20, 2005
Pacific Northwest Economic Development Council Conference Mt. Hood, Oregon June 20, 2005 Gary C. Zimmerman, Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Gary.Zimmerman@sf.frb.org Overview National
Between Global Rebalancing and Structural Change: American households and the new economic realities. Agenda
Between Global Rebalancing and Structural Change: American households and the new economic realities Federal Reserve BANK of Chicago December 3, 1 Adolfo L. Laurenti Deputy Chief Economist Agenda 1. Introduction:
U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
U.S. Economy and Financial Markets Economic Growth and Output Business Income and Finance Business Inventory Business Investment Consumption Housing Investment Income and Savings U.S. Aggregate Demand
Chart Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity Avg, % p.a. 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mor tgages: U.S. % 10
Northern Trust Global Economic Research South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 66 northerntrust.com Asha Bangalore agb@ntrs.com Now vs. 9/99 Part I April, 6 It is nearly certain the federal funds rate will be
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
Minutes of August 9 FOMC Meeting Debate Indicates Fed is Inclined to Ease, if Necessary
Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Minutes of August 9 FOMC Meeting Debate Indicates Fed is Inclined to Ease, if Necessary August 3, 211 The minutes of the August 9 FOMC meeting reveal a range of opinions
Q Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
Light at the End of the Tunnel or an Oncoming Freight Train? March 20, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 3 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 312..15 312.557.2 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist
Economic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017
Economic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017 The views expressed are mine, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. 2 The Fed s Dual Mandate The Fed is pursuing two objectives
Economic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
September 27, Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 003 northerntrust.com Carl R. Tannenbaum Chief Economist 31.7.0 ct9@ntrs.com Victoria Marklew Country Risk Manager 31..1 vem1@ntrs.com
The Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7
NationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends January 00 Stag-nations Economic growth in the United States has slowed substantially since the days of rapid expansion during the mid to late 1990s. According to preliminary estimates,
The Northern Trust Company Economic Research Department U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook 50 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60675
The Northern Trust Company Economic Research Department U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook 50 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60675 http://www.northerntrust.com (See Economic Research) Paul
Household Wealth and the Economy
Wealthbuilding Policies After the Recession Household Wealth and the Economy October 10, 2013 William R. Emmons Center for Household Financial Stability Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis William.R.Emmons@stls.frb.org
The Fed and The U.S. Economic Outlook
The Fed and The U.S. Economic Outlook Maria Luengo-Prado Senior Economist and Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston May 13, 2016 Presentation prepared for the Telergee Alliance CFO & Controllers
United States. GDP Growth Annualized Percentage Change. Industrial Production Annualized Percentage Change
Output Indicators GDP Growth Annualized Percentage Change Industrial Production Annualized Percentage Change 0 2 4 6 2.3-5 0 5 4.5 GDP Growth Industrial Production 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.9-4 -2
Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
There has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy March 26, 21 Craig S. Hakkio Senior Vice President and Special Advisor on Economic Policy Overview U.S. growth remains strong, though temporary factors are likely
Greece, Portugal and Spain Are the Least of Our Economic/Financial Challenges May 26, 2010
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 60603 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Chief Economist 312.444.4145 3157.2675 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist 312.444.4146
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
May 218 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP The Tower at PNC
Transitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion
Transitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion AUGUSTINE FAUCHER, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMICS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM The Great Recession Is Over Recessions since World War II Peak Trough
National Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018
National Economic Indicators May 7, 18 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 5 Decomposition
Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
Comments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff
Comments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff Marc Hayford Department of Economics December 3, 2012 Themes in the Outlook 1 st Theme: Substantial Slack in the U.S. economy 16,000 15,000
- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.
- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7
Federal Reserve as Lender of Last Resort In Pictures September 26, 2008
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Federal Reserve as Lender of Last Resort In Pictures September 26, 28 The
House prices in the United States were 14.1 percent
NationalEconomicTrends August How Much Have US House Prices Fallen? House prices in the United States were 11 percent lower in the first quarter of than they were a year earlier, according to a widely
The Macroeconomic Outlook
The Macroeconomic Outlook 2 nd Quarter, 2018 Ramirez & Co., Inc. 61 Broadway, 29th Floor New York, NY 10006 (800) 888-4086 Synopsis Almost a decade after the onset of the Great Contraction of 2007 2009,
U.S. Economic Outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook Daniel Cooper Federal Reserve Bank of Boston October 14, 2015 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal
Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
Chart 1 Reserve Bank Credit: Primary Credit to Depository Institutions
August 5 August 9, 8 Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 Paul northerntrust.com L. Kasriel Hplk1@ntrs.com Asha G. Bangalore Hagb3@ntrs.com Fed Policy: Financial
U.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook
U.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook Missouri Government Finance Officers Association Jason Brown Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the
Outlook for the United States*
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D Outlook for the United States* Stephan Danninger Division Chief International Monetary Fund * Based on the IMF Staff Report for the United States (see
Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Price Index Mixed Bag
Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Price Index Mixed Bag February 16, 2 Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com January Housing Starts: It is a Multi-Family Story Total housing starts increased 1.5%
December Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions January 9, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 60603 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com December Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions
Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
The relatively slow growth of employment has
NationalEconomicTrends August Please go to researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net for important information about your subscription Labor s Share The relatively slow growth of employment has been a prominent
IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation with United States
Tuesday 12 th July 2016 11:30 am International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Analyst II, First Citizens Research and Analytics Ravi.Kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation
Inflation Report. April June 2013
April June 2013 August 7, 2013 1 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
National Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017
National Economic Indicators December 11, 17 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 5
The Economic Outlook: Riding High (for Now)
The Economic Outlook: Riding High (for Now) Karen Dynan Harvard University and Peterson Institute for International Economics Fall 218 Global Economic Prospects Meeting Washington, DC October 4, 218 The
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NationalEconomicTrends July Using Stock Market Liquidity to Forecast Recessions The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (the committee that dates U.S. recessions)
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
U.S. Automotive Outlook
2004 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference September 19-22, 2004 Burlington, VT U.S. Automotive Outlook David P. Teolis Senior Economist North America Global Market & Industry Analysis Presentation
Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
Michigan Economic Update
Michigan Economic Update Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Detroit Branch October 30, 2015 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist The Midwest Economy declined to -0.15 in September while Michigan s contribution
With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary
NationalEconomicTrends March Income Taxes: Who Pays and How Much? With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary figures may provide some perspective on the issue of who is paying federal individual
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
The President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Importance of Financial Planning There is, in fact, a direct relationship between household financial stability and the stability of the U.S. economy. Thus, the Federal Reserve
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
Texas Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues
Texas Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 1/23/18 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do
In 2010, the first of the Baby Boom generation will
NationalEconomicTrends September 7 Can Social Security Survive the Baby Boomers? In 1, the first of the Baby Boom generation will reach age Many will choose to begin what they hope will be a long and financially
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal
NationalEconomicTrends October Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds at to 5 percent and intends to keep this near
Since the financial crisis began in mid-2007, media
NationalEconomicTrends August Commercial Bank Lending Data during the Crisis: Handle with Care Since the financial crisis began in mid-7, media sources and academics alike have scrutinized data from the
Durable Goods Orders Too Soon to Declare Soft 2012:Q1. Chart 1
Durable Goods Orders Too Soon to Declare Soft :Q1 February 28, Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Orders of dur able goods f ell 4.% i n January f ollowing s trong gains i n N ovember (+4.2%) and December
The chorus from Travis s 1947 song about the
NationalEconomicTrends December 7 What Do You Get for Sixteen Tons? You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Merle Travis The chorus from Travis s 197 song about
2012 Economic Outlook: Overview of U.S. Economy. Presented by: Mark Evans, CFA Director of Investment Strategies
2012 Economic Outlook: Overview of U.S. Economy Presented by: Mark Evans, CFA Director of Investment Strategies mevans@viningsparks.com A Recovery of Sorts Rates have fallen even further Economy is getting
Economic Overview. Academic Advisory Council May 6, Spencer Krane Senior Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Overview Academic Advisory Council May 6, 6 Spencer Krane Senior Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed are my own and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
On October 4, 2006, President Bush signed the
NationalEconomicTrends December Political Economy of State Homeland Security Grants On October,, President Bush signed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Appro pri - ations Act for fiscal year 7
Midwest Perspectives. Bill Testa Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Midwest Perspectives Community Banking Conference University of Wisconsin--Whitewater April 27, 2018 Bill Testa Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Topics Today U.S. Economy (doing well) Midwest
Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change. Consumer Price Index Percent change
National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change 6 5 Compounded Annual Rate of Change 4 3 2 1-1 Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Q1 217 195 196
Diverse Asset Class Correlation and Leverage August 13, 2007
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 603 northerntrust.com Paul Kasriel plk1@ntrs.com Diverse Asset Class Correlation and Leverage August 13, 20 Fund managers and investors
Individual households and firms, as well as local, state,
NationalEconomicTrends February 9 How Accu Are Forecasts in a Recession? Individual households and firms, as well as local, state, and federal governments, make economic decisions based on their view of