Weekly Market Review April 3, 2016 April 9, 2016 April 10, 2016
CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS Americas The Institute for Supply Management s non-manufacturing index for US climbed to 54.5 in Mar (vs. 53.4 in Feb) US factory orders in Feb fell at a more-than-expected pace by 1.7%, following an increase in Jan US consumer credit jumped by $17.2bn in Feb (after rising by $14.9bn in Jan), beating estimates Europe Eurozone s jobless rate in Feb slipped to 10.3% (vs. Jan s upwardly revised 10.4%), its lowest level since Aug 2011 Sentix s Eurozone s investor confidence index in Apr inched up less than estimates to 5.7 (vs. 5.5 in Mar) Markit s Eurozone s final composite PMI edged up to 53.1 in Mar (vs. 53.0 in Feb), lower than flash data German factory order fell 1.2% MoM in Feb after rising 0.5% in Jan, recording its biggest fall in six months Rest of the World The WTO downgraded 2016 global trade growth forecast to 2.8% (vs. 3.9%, earlier) on uncertain global demand Caixin China s composite PMI reached 51.3 in Mar (vs. 49.4 in Feb), led by stronger services, manufacturing activity Fitch affirmed Japan s long-term foreign & local currency Issuer Default Ratings at A with stable outlook Japan s leading index declined for a 4 th consecutive month to 99.8 in Feb, its lowest level since Dec 2012 World Bank lowered 2016 & 2017 Russia s economic outlook to -1.9% & 1.1% (vs. earlier -0.7% & 1.3%), respectively Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield S&P 500 2,047.60-1.21 0.18 17.35 2.21 DJI 17,576.96-1.21 0.87 16.27 2.59 Nasdaq Comp 4,850.69-1.30-3.13 20.56 1.30 Euro Stoxx 600 331.86-0.39-9.28 15.22 3.73 FTSE 100 6,204.41 0.95-0.61 16.53 4.52 Dax 9,622.26-1.76-10.43 12.15 3.24 CAC 40 4,303.12-0.44-7.20 14.22 3.48 Nikkei 225 15,821.52-2.12-16.88 14.78 1.92 Hang Seng 20,370.40-0.63-7.05 10.80 4.15 Brazil - Bovespa 50,292.93-0.53 16.02 13.93 3.71 Russia - Micex 1,877.27 1.10 6.58 7.58 4.46 BSE Sensex 24,673.84-2.36-5.53 15.33 1.66 Shanghai Comp 2,984.96-0.82-15.66 12.99 2.05 ; *Current S&P 500 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 1 year performance Page I 3
GCC EQUITIES UAE UAE Exchange s & Travelex s majority shareholders secured $890mn loan to support their growth plans Al Jaber Group reportedly missed repayment on its $4.5bn restructured debt in Mar, including principal & interest Bank of Sharjah seeks approval from shareholders to issue bonds worth up to $1.5bn Al Ansari Exchange intends to expand UAE network by 25% by 2020; invest AED600mn by 2018 for up gradation Saudi Arabia National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia secured SAR1.425bn murabaha facility for 10-yr period from Riyad Bank Al Tayyar Travel Group completed procedures to acquire 30% stake in Zakhr Inv. & Real Estate Dev. for SAR803.8mn Middle East Healthcare Co. successfully closed its IPO of 27.61mn shares; received SAR12bn worth subscriptions S&P affirmed the ratings on Saudi Arabia at A-/A-2 with a stable outlook Rest of GCC Qatar National Bank s 1Q16 net profit climbed 7.1% YoY to QAR2.9bn; selected banks to arrange for 1.5bn 3-year loan, to be used for general business purposes Capital Intelligence affirmed Qatar Int. Islamic Bank s financial strength rating at A- with a positive outlook BBK s BHD100mn perpetual tier 1 convertible capital securities subscription opened on Apr 3; to close on Apr 18 Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield Dubai 3,386.14 0.91 7.46 9.81 3.60 Abu Dhabi 4,351.70-0.88 1.03 9.87 5.68 Saudi Tadawul 6,258.11 0.56-9.46 12.69 4.21 Qatar Index 10,164.76-2.04-2.54 11.56 4.19 Kuwait Index 5,230.44 0.03-6.85 4.72 Oman MSM 30 5,609.70 2.60 3.76 9.88 4.66 Bahrain All Share 1,117.25-1.23-8.11 4.88 Egypt EGX 30 7,478.74-0.61 6.75 9.00 1.65 Istanbul 100 Index 82,502.11 0.17 15.02 9.27 3.54 ; *Current DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Page I 4
CURRENCIES US dollar weakened 3.24% against Japanese yen, briefly touching a 17-month low during the week ended Apr 8 after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve s March meeting showed signs of uncertainty about when to raise interest rates next British pound slipped 0.70% against US dollar in the week, continued to be rattled by worries that Britain will vote to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23 Brazil s real depreciated 1.03% against US dollar this week after the central bank sold 8,500 of the 20,000 foreignexchange reverse-swap contracts it offered, extended its efforts to weaken the currency after a first-quarter rally made it the world s best performer Russian ruble strengthened for a 2 nd week by 0.83% against US dollar as Brent crude traded back above $40 per barrel, spurring appetite for assets in the world s biggest energy exporter Canadian dollar edged up 0.18% against US dollar from Apr 1 as crude oil prices climbed and minutes from the most recent US Federal Reserve meeting confirmed a dovish tone Indian rupee inched down 0.33% against US dollar during the week ended Apr 8 as a fall in local shares indicated dollar inflows could slow Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year % USD Index 94.2350-0.41-3.02-4.46-5.14 EUR/USD 1.1399 0.07 3.64 4.94 7.50 GBP/USD 1.4128-0.70-0.63-4.13-3.44 USD/JPY 108.0700-3.24-4.66-10.11-10.11 USD/CHF 0.9536-0.46-4.38-4.84-2.60 USD/CAD 1.2988-0.18-1.96-6.15 3.36 USD/BRL 3.5904 1.03-2.69-9.35 16.75 USD/RUB 67.1185-0.83-5.60-7.45 25.25 USD/INR 66.4675 0.33-1.11 0.47 6.66 USD/CNY 6.4636-0.28-0.76-0.46 4.11 USD/AUD 1.3242 1.70-0.88-3.51 1.68 EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5
COMMODITIES US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) & Brent crude futures climbed 8.46% & 7.96%, respectively this week, after data during the week showed no. of rigs dropping to 354 from 362, an unexpected drop in crude inventories and a strong rise in demand from refiners in the US Spot gold prices advanced for a 2 nd consecutive week by 1.38% as worries about the global economy and expectations for lackluster US corporate earnings supported bids for the yellow metal The Baltic Exchange s main sea freight index surged 19.78% in the week ended Apr 8, backed by an upswing in demand across vessel segments headed by capesize vessels The London Metal Exchange s copper futures declined 3.83% from Apr 1 as concerns over demand from major consumer China pushed the metal breaking a key chart support, triggering selling Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year % Brent ICE 41.94 8.46 2.12 12.50-27.53 WTI Nymex 39.72 7.96 3.73 7.24-23.08 Gold Spot 1,239.35 1.38-1.11 16.76 2.63 Silver Spot 15.37 2.09 0.48 10.89-6.69 Copper - CMX 208.70-3.51-6.41-2.25-23.66 S&P GSCI Spot Index 329.02 3.99 0.09 5.57-20.21 Baltic Dry Index 539.00 19.78 43.35 12.76-7.07 The ICE orange juice futures slid 5.77% during the past five trading days as a weaker Brazilian real against the US dollar helped push more juice into the market even as demand fell The Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures ended the week down 3.26% as the market gets dragged on account of lack of demand for pricey US shipments and the improving condition of the winter wheat crop WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6
INTEREST RATES The 10-year US bond yield declined for a 2 nd week in a row by 5.4 basis points (bps) to 1.72%, settling near eightweek lows as investors opted for the safety of government bonds amid volatility in risky assets like stocks The European Central Bank (ECB) said on Apr 7 it would keep all options on the table in its fight to stave off deflation in the Eurozone, confirming interest rates in Europe could sink even further into negative territory over the next few months The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to a five-year low of 6.5% on Apr 5, citing a dip in inflation, in line with economists' expectations Australia s central bank left interest rates at a record-low 2.0% on Apr 5, and warned that a rising currency could interfere with a transition in the broader economy fueling expectations for rate cuts later in the year Serbia's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25% on Apr 7, in line with market expectations, keeping policy steady two weeks before April 24 elections The National Bank of Poland s Monetary Policy Council left the key reference rate at a record low of 1.50% on Apr 6, as inflation continued to remain negative (fell 0.8% YoY in Feb after declining 0.9% in Jan) Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year % USD-10yr 1.72-3.04-6.12-24.35-12.40 USD-2yr 0.70-3.79-19.74-33.66 26.87 Fed Funds Rate 0.37 0.00 2.78 85.00 208.33 USD-3m Libor 0.63 0.27-0.68 2.95 128.63 USD-6m Libor 0.89-0.69-0.31 5.76 121.84 German-10yr 0.10-29.10-47.80-84.90-40.63 UK-10yr 1.36-3.26-1.59-30.46-13.24 Japan-10yr -0.09 31.34-18.52-133.85-124.65 AED-3m EIBOR 1.03 0.04-0.61-2.78 40.21 AED-6m EIBOR 1.28 0.45 0.82 5.08 44.86 US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7
EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Ukraine 4.38% 6.11% 2 Sri Lanka 3.17% 4.19% 3 Oman 2.60% 2.61% 4 Vietnam 2.49% 2.49% 5 Russia 1.99% 1.99% 6 Venezuela 1.94% 1.94% 7 Switzerland 1.68% 2.15% 8 Pakistan 1.55% 1.58% 9 UK 0.95% 0.25% 10 Malta 0.93% 1.00% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Peru 17.02% 18.60% 2 Russia 16.12% 16.12% 3 Brazil 16.02% 27.98% 4 Turkey 15.02% 17.74% 5 Colombia 14.98% 18.13% 6 Kazakhstan 13.44% 13.54% 7 Hungary 10.84% 17.41% 8 Namibia 9.69% 13.26% 9 Slovakia 9.63% 15.05% 10 Dubai UAE 7.46% 7.46% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Argentina -7.27% -5.26% 2 Zambia -4.04% 5.62% 3 Peru -3.07% -3.84% 4 Poland -2.73% -3.70% 5 Portugal -2.63% -2.56% 6 Mexico -2.61% -5.01% 7 India -2.36% -2.68% 8 Namibia -2.36% -4.18% 9 Thailand -2.22% -2.04% 10 Japan -2.12% 1.16% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Italy -18.27% -14.23% 2 Japan -16.88% -7.53% 3 China -15.66% -15.27% 4 Ukraine -15.29% -20.57% 5 Mongolia -13.83% -15.25% 6 Spain -11.70% -7.33% 7 Nigeria -11.57% -11.53% 8 Switzerland -11.35% -6.84% 9 Greece -11.05% -6.65% 10 Germany -10.43% -6.00% Page I 8
COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Brent Crude 8.46% 2 WTI Crude 7.96% 3 Steel Rebar 6.46% 4 Heat Oil 6.07% 5 Gasoil 5.66% 6 Gasoline 4.43% 7 Ethanol 4.36% 8 Rubber 3.30% 9 Nickel 2.70% 10 Corn 2.33% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Steel Rebar 32.54% 2 Rubber 21.18% 3 Gold 16.76% 4 Tin 15.77% 5 Gasoline 15.52% 6 Lumber 12.77% 7 Brent Crude 12.50% 8 Lean Hogs 11.75% 9 Soybean Oil 11.10% 10 Silver 10.89% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Zinc -6.12% 2 Orange Juice -5.77% 3 Coffee -5.34% 4 Palladium -4.25% 5 Copper -3.51% 6 Lumber -3.39% 7 Wheat -3.26% 8 Sugar -3.23% 9 Natural Gas -3.16% 10 Palm Oil -2.58% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Natural Gas -14.85% 2 Rough Rice -13.96% 3 Cocoa -10.56% 4 Feeder Cattle -6.59% 5 Cotton -5.07% 6 Coffee -4.93% 7 Lead -4.80% 8 Palladium -3.68% 9 Sugar -3.61% 10 Nickel -3.12% Page I 9
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