State of the Turkish Economy. Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October

Transcription

1 State of the Turkish Economy Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October

2 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 2 Agenda Overview of the Turkish economy Risks and priorities New anchor: EU What are the policy implications?

3 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 3 Turkish Economy: Basic Facts GDP US$ billion (end- 2004) GDP per capita US$ 4,187 Highest growing country in world with 9.9 percent growth in 2004 Population 71.3 million, population growth rate 1.5 percent Population living in urban cities 60 percent, urbanization rate 32 percent Labor force 24.3 million Labor force participation rate 48.7 percent Unemployment rate 10.5 percent Life expectancy 68.7 years Infant mortality 3.8 percent Literacy rate 88.3 percent Gini coefficient 0.42 Percent of population living under 1$ per day 0.2

4 GDP (billion USD) GDP annual growth rate (%) State of the Turkish Economy Slide 4 Economic growth Gross Domestic Product (billion USD) and GDP growth rate GDP growth rate

5 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 5 Turkish economy in the 1990s Despite huge potential, Turkish economy significantly underperformed in the 1990s: boom and bust cycles in growth high and chronic inflation high public sector deficit fiscal indiscipline high levels of uncertainty (political and macroeconomic) very high interest rates three economic crises, internal confict, 1999 earthquake the 2001 economic crisis = GDP shrank by 10%

6 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 6 Putting risks into perspective: What has Turkey done so far? Basic elements: Monetary Discipline Fiscal Discipline Public Administration Reform Banking Sector Reform- Corporate Restructuring Basic Outcomes: Relative stability Structural transformation process Key: is it sustainable??

7 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 7 New policy framework after 2001 Public Sector Reforms Granting Central Bank Full Independence Ensuring Universality of the Budget Public Finance and Debt Management Law Indirect Tax Reform (Special Consumption Tax Law) Public Procurement Law Private Pension Law Civil Service Reform Pension Reform Reform on SEEs Governance Direct Tax Reform (Second Phase of Tax Reform Tax Administration Reform Public Financial Management and Financial Control Law Creation of Regulatory Authorities Electricity Market Natural Gas Market Sugar Market Tobacco Market Telecommunication International Arbitration Financial Sector Reform Creation of Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (2000) Non-performing banks transferred to Savings Deposit Insurance Fund. Transition to more bank activities.

8 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 8 A new process following the 2001 crisis? Growth without inflation Interests rates are falling down Productivity is rising Non-inflationary growth ( ) Industrial Production Interest Rate Inflation Oca.99 Oca.00 Oca.01 Oca.02 Oca.03 Oca.04 Oca.05 Inflation and Interest Rates Productivity and Employment Trends 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 160,0 150,0 140,0 130,0 120,0 110,0 Employment Production Labor Productivity economic program 0% -20% -40% -60% inflation nominal interest real interest rate ,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,

9 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 9 Turkey s Recovery since 2001 Transformation Relative Stability Superior Economic Growth GNP (billion $) Growth (%) Inflation (CPI%) Public debt (% of GNP) Budget Deficit (% of GNP) Exports (billion $) Foreign Reserves (billion $) , % , %

10 2002Jan 2002Feb 2002Mar 2002Apr 2002May 2002Jun 2002Jul 2002Aug 2002Sep 2002Oct 2002Nov 2002Dec 2003Jan 2003Feb 2003Mar 2003Apr 2003May 2003Jun 2003Jul 2003Aug 2003Sep 2003Oct 2003Nov 2003Dec 2004Jan 2004Feb 2004Mar 2004Apr 2004May 2004Jun 2004Jul 2004Aug 2004Sep 2004Oct 2004Nov 2004Dec State of the Turkish Economy Slide 10 Stability Implies Higher Maturity Weighted Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing Raised Through the Market Maturity Months

11 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 11, but depends on risk management Relative stability Structural transformation political stability Risks: 1. Need for above average growth rates for net job-creation. 2. Risks due to structural transformation. 3. Need for a credible and longlasting anchor: EU?

12 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 12 Inherent risks Structural transformation risk Growth sustainability risk Risk of policy credibility Governance risk structural risks Macroeconomic vulnerabilities triggering factor

13 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 13 Risk 1: Structural Transformation of the Turkish economy An example from retailing

14 A projection for the future: Comparison of Spain and Turkey

15 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 15 Market Shares in Retailing: Decline of Traditional Shops Mini-markets Local supermarkets Retail Chains q4 2000q1 2000q2 2000q3 2000q4 2001q1 2001q2 2001q3 2001q4 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 2003q1 2003q2 2003q3 2003q4 2004q1 2004q2 2004q3

16 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 16 Winners and losers in retailing Winners Losers End-points Organized chains Groceries, traditional shops Distribution Suppliers Wholesalers Transportation Logistic firms Individual truckowners Production Brand-names Informal producers (quality??)

17 index (2000=100) State of the Turkish Economy Slide 17 Risk 2: Sustainability of the Growth Process (1) 200 Unemployment (sa) Production (sa) 180 Employment (sa) Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4

18 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 18 Sustainability of the Growth Process (2) Productivity increase not sustainable? Current Account Imports of intermediate and capital goods are increasing more than exports Rising Trade Intergration has not led to an adequate Financial Structure yet patterns & trends seem promising FDI inflows Unemployment

19 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 19 Risk 3: EU anchor is different from IMF anchor IMF When you agree with the IMF, IMF is actively overseeing the performance. EU When you start the negotiation process, EU Commission is passively overseeing the performance. IMF stands by and actively participates as a guarantor of policy credibility. EU stands apart and actively criticizes long afterwards.

20 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 20 Any anchor is not a guarantee for superior economic performance FDI Inflows to Turkey (million US$) Authorized Realized Source: Foreign Investment Directorate, Treasury

21 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 21 without accompanying reforms Investment Climate Problems: Tax System and Administration Labor Regulations Informal Economy and Anti-competitive practices Access to and Cost of Finance Access to Land Local Administrative Barriers (i.e. Licenses and permits) Corporate Governance and Restructuring Low Technological Base Lack of Innovative Capabilities Lack of Skills

22 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 22 A doomsday scenario Economic program lacks in new job-creation. Losers from structural transformation attack the economic program. Expansionary monetary policy and giving up fiscal discipline to increase domestic demand. National unrest against EU. Lose of anchor, political turmoil. Triggering factors become active

23 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 23 Framework for sustainability of reforms IMF program only provides minimum requirements. More is neccesary for sustaining a politically viable reform program. How to support the new modus operandi and enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish corporate sector?

24 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 24 Reforms on the public side Reducing costs: competition in infrastructure markets. Gaining legal flexibility: reform in bankruptcy and liquidation laws. Localization Regional Development Monitoring and regulating state aids

25 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 25 Changing patterns of behaviour on corporate side Technological transformation Skills-training for the new technologies New governance structures Outcomes: Sustaining productivity gains Keeping high dynamism of firms We need: Foreign direct investment Better financial intermediation for domestic firms

26 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 26 Sustaining the reform:social Policies to ease structural transformation Social security reform: implementation of social assistance programs poverty alleviation Education reform Health reform EU Framework? Active labour market policies: bearing the costs of skills training

27 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 27 Where s the catch? Governance structure Flexible and fast policy making Rule of law and credible enforcement

28 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 28 Conclusion: A policy agenda We should have policies targeted to higher growth rates, rather than being afraid of it. We should have more than IMF program to attain above-normal growth rates: More reforms targeted to corporate sector. A stronger internal commitment to EU anchor. Introduction of social policies.