Turkey s Experience with Macroprudential Policy
|
|
- Mitchell Dominick Freeman
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Turkey s Experience with Macroprudential Policy Hakan Kara* Central Bank of Turkey Macroprudential Policy: Effectiveness and Implementation Challenges CBRT-IMF-BIS Joint Conference October 26-27, 2015 İstanbul * The views expressed are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the Central Bank of Turkey
2 35 Turkey s GDP continued to grow steadily in the post-gfc period, notwithstanding significant global and geopolitical shocks. GDP (Seasonally adjusted, constant prices, billion TL) EU Debt crisis Taper Tantrum Geopolitical shocks GFC Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q2 2
3 Outline 1. Background for Turkish prudential framework 2. Implementation of macroprudential policies 3. The outcome 3
4 Background and Initial Conditions 4
5 Establishing an institutional framework for financial stability TWO MAIN INFLECTION POINTS 2001 crisis: redesigning microprudential framework 2011: explicit macro-approach to financial stability 5
6 2001 crisis: Once bitten, twice shy Restructuring and recapitalization of the banking system Strengthened bank regulation and supervision Foundation of the banking regulation and supervision agency (BRSA) Implementation of tight regulation and supervision 6
7 The pace of financial deepening since 2003 highlighted the need for macroprudential policies Private Credit/GDP Ratios (%) Upper income (OECD countries) Turkey Emerging Markets Source: World Bank 7
8 Extending maturities were also instrumental in credit boom through higher affordability, limiting the impact of monetary policy Average maturity of personal loans (months) 0 8
9 The need for a macro approach have further intensified after the QE, with rapid credit growth and marked currency appreciation. Total Loan Growth Rates (13 Weeks Moving Average, Annualized, FX Adjusted, Percent) 125 Real Exchange Rate (2003=100) Beginning of QE by Fed QE Source: CBRT
10 2007: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :01 Sharp widening in the current account deficit, financed with short-term inflows called for an immediate policy action. Current Account Balance (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, Billion USD ) Main Sources of External Financing* (12-months Cumulative, Billion USD) Portfolio and Short-Term* FDI and Long-Term** Current Account Deficit Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. *Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Long-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Source: CBRT.
11 Capital outflows are closely associated with output losses across EMs. Source: Claessens and Ghosh (2013) 11
12 * Historically, sharp capital flow reversals (sudden stops) in Turkey are associated with large output losses Net Capital Flows / GDP GDP Growth Rate Crisis Year Cumulative Output Loss ,3% ,3% ,1%. * As of Q2, annualized. Source: CBRT. 12
13 MaP under Institutional Constraints Rapid credit growth and widening current account deficit have required an urgent response by the end of No institution had the mandate and/or explicit objective at the time to deliver the necessary response. The CBRT stepped in by Incorporating financial stability into the IT framework Redesigning the toolkit to respond to macro financial risks Reserve requirements and interest rates were used jointly for both monetary policy and MaP purposes. 13
14 Monetary Policy Framework: Financial stability augmented IT Price Stability Price Stability Financial Stability Policy Rate Policy Rate Interest Rate Corridor Reserve Req. Policy 14
15 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jun- Jun- Jun- Jul-10 Jul-10 Aug Aug Sep- Sep- Oct- Oct- Nov Nov Nov Dec- Dec- Jan- Jan- Feb- Feb- Mar Mar Apr- Apr- May May May Jun- Jun- 12 Initial phase of MaP implementation (September 2010-Mid 2011): Interest rate policy used jointly with Reserve Requirement Ratios Overnight Interest Rate Lending Corridor Rate Overnight Rate (%,5-day MA) One-Week Repo Rate (%) Reserve Requirement ratio (RRR) Effective RRR
16 RRR hikes and the new policy strategy have somewhat contained further acceleration in credit growth. Total Loan Growth Rate (Year on Year Change, Percent) RRR Hikes Financial Stability Committee and BRSA measures Source: CBRT. Total credit is inclusive of all types of banks (deposit banks, participation banks, and development/investment banks) and credit cards. 16
17 Yet, the new approach posed challenges for policy communication. Complex transmission mechanism of new tools Inherently vague nature of financial stability: difficulty of linking each tool to objectives (unlike IT) Even so, this episode has increased the awareness for the need to adopt a more explicit institutional MaP framework. Paved the way for the foundation of a financial stability committee. 17
18 Second Phase of MaP Implementation: Financial Stability Committee 18
19 Financial Stability Committee (FSC) was a significant step for the establishment of a formal institutional framework for MaP. Organization Structure CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY CAPITAL MARKETS BOARD UNDERSECRETARIAT OF TREASURY FINANCIAL STABILITY COMMITTEE CHAIR: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER BANKING REGULATION AND SUPERVISION AGENCY SAVINGS DEPOSIT INSURANCE FUND Founded in June Enhances information sharing, coordination, and cooperation. Main duties are to assess the systemic risks, identify necessary measures, and make relevant policy recommendations. No decision power or tools; the power rests with the authorities represented in the Committee. Each institution has its own mandate and responsibility. 19
20 Broad Objectives of Macroprudential Policy Increase sustained growth prospects Contain credit growth and household overborrowing Improve the quality of financing Bolster safety nets against external financial shocks Dampen the financial amplification channels Interaction between capital flows, credit, and exchange rate 20
21 Intermediate Target 1: contain credit growth and change the composition of credit to reduce the share of household borrowing. MAIN TOOLS: Financial Institutions Based Risk weights Loan-loss provisions Borrower Based LTV ceilings Maturity limits Limits on # of installments 21
22 Why focus on credit growth and household borrowing? Credit booms are the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises. Borio and Lowe (2002), Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), Jorda et al (2011), Gourinchas and Obstfeld (2012), Schularick and Taylor (2012) A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower output growth over the medium-run. Mian, Sufi and Verner (2015) 22
23 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Household borrowing displays a strong relationship with the current account deficit. Consumer Loans and the Current Account (Change YoY, % of GDP for Consumer Loans, % of GDP for Current Account Deficit) 10 5,0 9 4,5 8 4, ,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 3 1,0 2 CAD/GDP ΔConsumer Loans Stock/GDP(RHS) 0,5 1 0,0 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 23
24 The macroprudential measures to smooth credit cycle and to contain household debt were implemented in two major steps. First Round (2011) Higher risk weights and provisions for consumer loans. Limits to credit card payments LTV cap for housing loans Second Round ( ) Caps, limits, and higher risk weights on credit cards Maturity restrictions (36 months) for uncollateralized consumer loans LTV cap for vehicle loans 24
25 Macroprudential policies have succeeded in containing loan growth I Loan Growth Rates (Annual percentage change) Two Rounds of Macroprudential Policies II Commercial Consumer Source: CBRT. Last Observation: September 11, Inclusive of loans extended by all types of banks (deposit banks, Participation banks, and development/investment banks). FX adjusted. 25
26 The share of consumer loans in total loans have declined considerably since Consumer Loans / Total Loans I 25 II MaP to curb consumer loans
27 The MaPs have been instrumental in reversing the upward trend in the household indebtedness ratio in recent years. Household Assets and Liabilities (Billion TL, Percent) 1000 Total Assets Total Liabilities Liabilities/Assets (RHA) Source: CBRT Financial Stability Report May 2015 Last Observation: August
28 Intermediate Target 2: increase the quality of financing (liabilities) MAIN TOOLS: reserve requirement policy Strategy: adjust RRR and remuneration rates to favor Core liabilities over non-core liabilities Long-term over short-term TL over FX 28
29 ,0 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 Reserve Requirements were used in several dimensions to improve the quality of external finance and bank liabilities. TL vs FX (short term) TL short FX short 20,0 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 Core vs Non-core (FX) Core FX Non-Core FX 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 Short vs Long (core) Core TL short Core TL long Short vs Long (Non-core) Non-Core short Non-Core long 7,0 12 6,0 10 5,0 8 4,0 6 29
30 RR measures have been effective in extending the maturity of the noncore liabilities Maturity Breakdown of Non-Core FX Liabilities (Percent) 60 RR Measures to encourage maturity extension 50 Up to 1-Year 40 Longer than 3-Years to 3-Years 0 Source: CBRT Last Observation: October 9,
31 01/10 04/10 07/10 10/10 01/11 04/11 07/11 10/11 01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12 01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 as well as stabilizing credit to deposit ratios. 130 Credit/Deposit Ratio (Percent) RR Measures to Support Core Liabilities Source: BRSA Last Observation: September 11,
32 Intermediate Target 3: Bolster safety nets against external shocks MAIN TOOL: CBRT FX Reserves Strategy: Create direct FX liquidity provision facilities for banks to build resilience against external finance shocks. Reserve option mechanism FX deposit facility 32
33 ** FX liquidity readily available to the financial system is now considerably above the short term debt stock of the banks. Short-term Debt Stock* and FX Liquidity Facilities to Banks (Billion USD ) ROM FX and Gold Reserves+Short-Term FX Borrowing Facility Short Term FX External Debt of the Banking System (RHA) *According to remaining maturity. ** Data as of September 2015 is flow and subject to change. Source: CBRT Last Observation: September 30,
34 Intermediate Target 4: dampen the financial amplification mechanisms triggered by cross border flows MAIN TOOLS: Wide Interest Rate Corridor Flexible interest rate policy against sudden shifts in capital flows Reserve Option Mechanism Build reserves with low sterilization costs during inflows. Reduce sensitivity of credit and exchange rates to capital inflows. 34
35 CBRT has expanded the policy toolkit to weaken the amplification mechanisms triggered by global liquidity cycles. Flexible Interest Rate Corridor Global Liquidity Capital Inflows Reserve Option Mechanism External Borrowing Currency Appreciation Rapid Credit Growth Balance sheet and collateral effects, further credit growth 35
36 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 The interaction between capital flows, exchange rate and bank loans have been dampened considerably since the implementation of MaPs. 2 1,5 1 0,5 0-0,5-1 -1,5-2 Capital flows, exchange rate, and credit cycles (HP filtered, standardized) Loans (t) REER (t+3) Inflows (t+3) The New Policy Mix Source: CBRT. 36
37 Macro Outcomes of MaP Implementations 37
38 Current account balance has shown a persistent and sizeable improvement in recent years, despite the volatility in capital flows Current Account Deficit and Net Capital Inflows Net Capital Inflows (12 Month Cumulative, Billion USD) CAD (excluding gold, right axis) MaP CBRT starts using ROM actively Source: CBRT. 38
39 The share of long-term and FDI inflows have increased since Net Capital Inflows (12-Months Cumulative, Billion USD) 100 Portfolio and Short Term** FDI and Long Term* New Policy Mix Source: CBRT. *Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Last Observation: August
40 GDP growth stayed relatively stable since 2011, despite the heigthened volatility in capital flows Annual Change in Net Capital Flows/GDP (percent) GDP (real, annual growth, percent, right axis) Source: CBRT. 40
41 The contribution of global factors to Turkey s monetary and financial conditions have declined after the implementation of MaP policies % Share of Global Factors* in Explaining Turkey s Financial Conditions MaP measures *Global Factors are VIX index, global growth, US treasury 10-year yield and 10-2 year spread. Source: Kara, Özlü and Ünalmış (2015) 41
42 01/10 05/10 09/10 01/11 05/11 09/11 01/12 05/12 09/12 01/13 05/13 09/13 01/14 05/14 09/14 01/15 05/15 09/15 Inflation expectations improved during the initial stages; yet deteriorated since the taper tantrum due to persistent depreciation in TL. 10,0 Medium-term (2-year ahead) Inflation Expectations (Percent) 9,0 8,0 7,0 Adoption of the New Policy Framework Taper tantrum and political uncertainty 6,0 5,0 Target 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: September
43 Final Remarks Macroprudential policies in Turkey have engineered a soft landing and improved sustained growth prospects. Sensitivity of economic activity to capital flow volatility have declined considerably. Overall, the Turkish experience suggests that well targeted countercyclical MaP can improve the policy tradeoffs. Building buffers in good times, using them in bad times Yet, neither monetary policy nor macroprudential policy can substitute for deeper structural reforms. 43
44 Turkey s Experience with Macroprudential Policy Hakan Kara* Central Bank of Turkey Macroprudential Policy: Effectiveness and Implementation Challenges CBRT-IMF-BIS Joint Conference October 26-27, 2015 İstanbul * The views expressed are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the Central Bank of Turkey
Capital flows, monetary policy, and macroprudential policy: reflections from the Turkish experience
Capital flows, monetary policy, and macroprudential policy: reflections from the Turkish experience Hakan Kara* Central Bank of Turkey South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference October 27-28, 2016
More informationCBRT Policy Mix. Devrim Yavuz Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. April Jakarta
CBRT Policy Mix Devrim Yavuz Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey April 2018 Jakarta Outline Global Financial Crises: The lessons taken, the challenges faced and the need for policy mix How the trade-offs
More informationTurkish Experience with Inflation Targeting
Turkish Experience with Inflation Targeting Hakan Kara Central Bank of Turkey International Financial Congress July 12 14, 2017 St. Petersburg Outline 1. Performance under inflation targeting 2. Operational
More informationBank Indonesia s Experience on Policy Mix
Bank Indonesia s Experience on Policy Mix Sahminan Department of Economic and Monetary Policy Bank Indonesia Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges and Policy Responses Jakarta, 9-13 April 2018 Outline
More informationTurkey Economic Outlook
Turkey Economic Outlook November 2018 Creating Opportunities Challenging times ahead needing policy determination 01 Turkish financial assets stabilize after reaching lows in summer A firmer policy response
More informationFinancial stability and macroprudential policy in Turkey
Financial stability and macroprudential policy in Turkey Murat Uysal 1 Abstract In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) designed and adopted a
More informationDr. Cihan Aktas Deputy Executive Director Banking and Financial Institutions Department Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Dr. Cihan Aktas Deputy Executive Director Banking and Financial Institutions Department Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Session III: Supporting Oman Real Economy and Entrepreneurships Oman Second
More informationErdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy
More informationMONTHLY BANKING MONITOR
TURKEY MONTHLY BANKING MONITOR NOVEMBER DECEMBER 7TH Global Developments Financial stress for EM rose in November, due to US elections and increase in the probability of a Fed rate hike in December BBVA
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More informationCross-border portfolio flows and the role of macroprudential policies: experiences from Turkey
Cross-border portfolio flows and the role of macroprudential policies: experiences from Turkey Salih Fendoğlu, Mustafa Kılınç and Mehmet Yörükoğlu 1 Abstract The last three decades have been marked by
More information3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment
3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor 28-29 April 214, Skopje Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth
More informationMONTHLY BANKING MONITOR
TURKEY MONTHLY BANKING MONITOR OCTOBER November 11th 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3
More informationJuda Agung. Department of Economic Research and Monetary Policy BANK INDONESIA
Juda Agung Department of Economic Research and Monetary Policy BANK INDONESIA 1 Roadmap: Recent Capital Inflows Benefits and Challenges Policy Responses Final Remarks Recent Capital Inflows 2 Indonesia
More informationJulio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011
Monetary Policy Implementation: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years Julio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011 Content 1. Introductory remarks
More informationEconomy and Banking Sector in Turkey. İstanbul June, 2012
Economy and Banking Sector in Turkey İstanbul June, 2012 Content Economic Outlook Banking sector Near-term expectations Turkish economy and banking sector 1 Turkish economy and banking sector 2 Economic
More information3Q17 Investor Presentation Albaraka Türk Participation Bank
3Q17 Investor Presentation Albaraka Türk Participation Bank 03 November 2017 Agenda 1 Introduction 2 Financial Highlights 3 4 Market Comparison Appendix Turkey Macroeconomic Developments 2004 2005 2006
More informationMacroprudential Policies
Macroprudential Policies Bank Indonesia International Workshop and Seminar Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges and Policies Jakarta, 9-13 April 2018 Yoke Wang Tok The views expressed herein are
More informationReport on financial stability
Report on financial stability Márton Nagy MNB Club 26 April 212 Key risks Deteriorating lending capacity stemming particularly from liquidity side raises the risk of a credit crunch, mainly in the corporate
More informationFinancial Stability Report
Financial Stability Report May 214 Volume 18 Financial Stability Report May 214 Volume 18 CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Head Office İstiklal Cad. 1 Ulus, 61 Ankara, Türkiye Tel: (9 312) 57 5 Fax:
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationMonthly Economic Review September 2013
Monthly Economic Review September 213 Global Economy During the last week of August, concerns regarding the Middle East elevated again due to the possibility of a military operation against Syria. Developments
More informationCentral Banking and Financial Sector Development
Central Banking and Financial Sector Development 2nd Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Experts Group Workshop Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 13-14 November, 2011 Tuğrul Gürgür Deputy Executive Director
More informationMACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THE ABRIDGED MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING OF 18 SEPTEMBER 2018
MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THE ABRIDGED MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING OF 18 SEPTEMBER 18 s e p t e m b e r 18 MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK Time of publication:
More informationEuropean Financial Stability and Integration Report Nadia CALVIÑO Deputy Director General DG Internal Market and Services
European Financial Stability and Integration Report 2011 Nadia CALVIÑO Deputy Director General DG Internal Market and Services EFSIR 2011 2011 critical year in the financial and economic crisis complex
More informationMexico s Economic Policy under External Constraints. Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board
Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 27, 2012 Contents 1 Monetary Policy and Capital Inflows 2 Implications of European Uncertainty 3 Economic Developments
More informationOverview: Financial Stability and Systemic Risk
Overview: Financial Stability and Systemic Risk Bank Indonesia International Workshop and Seminar Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges, and Policies Jakarta, 9-13 April 2018 Rajan Govil The views
More informationMonetary Policy Workshop on Strengthening
Monetary Policy Workshop on Strengthening Macroprudential Framework held by IMF Regional Office for Asia and Pacific (March 22~23, 2012, Tokyo) Macroprudential Policy Framework: The Case of Korea Tae Soo
More informationTurkey Macroeconomic Outlook
June 2011 The study analyzes the macroeconomic scenario in Turkey and its effect on the investment prospects. We believe domestic consumption will be strong and the core driver of growth in this new era.
More informationFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DAY. Ali Fuat Erbil, CEO Dubai, 06 November 2018
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DAY Ali Fuat Erbil, CEO Dubai, 06 November 2018 TURKISH ECONOMY GDP GROWTH 7.4% 6.2% 3.0% 2H18 -- Decelerating economic activity Worsening high frequency indicators, High statistical
More informationCapital Flows and Monetary Coordination. Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund
Capital Flows and Monetary Coordination Rakesh Mohan Executive Director International Monetary Fund June 9, 214 Capital Flows: Historical Overview Pre-WW I Debt flows, mostly long-term Gold standard stable
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationChallenges of financial globalisation and dollarisation for monetary policy: the case of Peru
Challenges of financial globalisation and dollarisation for monetary policy: the case of Peru Julio Velarde During the last decade, the financial system of Peru has become more integrated with the global
More informationMonthly Economic Review
Monthly Economic Review Economic Research Division İzlem Erdem Chief Economist izlem.erdem@isbank.com.tr Alper Gürler Unit Manager alper.gurler@isbank.com.tr H. Erhan Gül Asst. Manager erhan.gul@isbank.com.tr
More informationExternal Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good?
External Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good? Alejandro Izquierdo IADB Emerging Powers in Global Governance Conference Paris, July 6, 2007 (based on work with Ernesto Talvi)
More informationMonthly Economic Review
Monthly Economic Review December 21 Economic Research Division İzlem Erdem Chief Economist izlem.erdem@isbank.com.tr Alper Gürler Unit Manager alper.gurler@isbank.com.tr H. Erhan Gül Asst. Manager erhan.gul@isbank.com.tr
More informationPerry Warjiyo: US monetary policy normalization and EME policy mix the Indonesian experience
Perry Warjiyo: US monetary policy normalization and EME policy mix the Indonesian experience Speech by Mr Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, at the NBER 25th Annual East Asian Seminar on
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationPERU: MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES TO ACHIEVE FINANCIAL STABILITY. Renzo Rossini General Manager Central Reserve Bank of Peru
PERU: MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES TO ACHIEVE FINANCIAL STABILITY Renzo Rossini General Manager Central Reserve Bank of Peru Dollarization Central Reserve Bank of Peru 2 Russian crisis Reduction of short-term
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationEconomic Developments and The Banking Sector. Hüseyin Aydın Chairman of the Board
Economic Developments and The Banking Sector Hüseyin Aydın Chairman of the Board Global growth forecast, 2012 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% -0.3% World Developed C. EU countries Developing C. Source: IMF, World Economic
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationExport Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building
Export Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building 22-24 February 21 Debt Sustainability and the Implications
More informationWhat Caused the Global Financial Crisis? Ouarda Merrouche (WB) and Erlend Nier (IMF)
What Caused the Global Financial Crisis? Ouarda Merrouche (WB) and Erlend Nier (IMF) What do we do? We document how ample liquidity ahead of the crisis encouraged increases in leverage sourced in wholesale
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January September 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January September 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years
More informationInvestment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets
Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal
More informationIndonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy
Indonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy Perry Warjiyo 1 Abstract As a bank-based economy, global factors affect financial intermediation
More informationRecent Economic Developments
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments January, 2010 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks
More informationMacroprudential Policy in Korea - An Introduction to BOK Framework -
II Meeting on Financial Stability Bogotá, Colombia (October 25, 2012) Macroprudential Policy in Korea - An Introduction to BOK Framework - Hyeonjin Cha Bank of Korea DISCLAIMER: This presentation represents
More informationMonetary Policy in India
Monetary Policy in India Deepak Mohanty Executive Director Reserve Bank of India September 16, 2013 1 I. Objective(s) An Outline II. III. IV. Policy Framework Operating Procedure Outcome V. Conclusion
More informationTRENDS, DYNAMICS, AND CHALLENGES OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO FRONTIER MARKETS
HIGH-LEVEL CONFERENCE ON MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS FOR FRONTIER ECONOMIES MARCH 2, 2015, MAURITIUS TRENDS, DYNAMICS, AND CHALLENGES OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO FRONTIER MARKETS By Henry
More informationKey Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
Seminar for Senior Bank Supervisors from Emerging Markets WB/IMF/Federal Reserve October 2016 1 Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy Luis I. Jácome H. Monetary and Capital Markets Department International
More informationProspects for the Region
Prospects for the Region OECD South Caucasus and Ukraine Initiative Workshop on Financial Market Development Warsaw, November 17, 29 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationPromoting Financial Stability: ie Roles of Macroprudential and Monetary Measures
. Monetary policy cannot achieve and maintain financial stability; should not have financial stability as a goal Promoting Financial Stability: ie Roles of Macroprudential and Monetary Measures Lars E.O.
More informationThe Future of Mexican Monetary Policy
The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.
More informationLow Interest Rate Environment and Reaction of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies
Low Interest Rate Environment and Reaction of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Vladimir TOMSIK Vicegovernor Czech National Bank BNP Paribas Seminar Washington, October 7, 2016 Outline The CNB
More informationCapital Flow Dynamics and Central Banks Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis and Challenges Ahead
Bank of Japan Review 217-E- Capital Flow Dynamics and Central Banks Lessons from the Financial Crisis and Challenges Ahead International Department Sohei Iwai*, Shingo Konaka**, Marcel Hisamitsu***, Hideki
More informationKAPSAM Economic Briefing Series (2018/1) Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Projections
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Projections www.kapsam.org.tr In this economic brief, KAPSAM economy unit assess recent exchange rate fluctuations in a wider perspective, makes an analysis on the root-causes
More informationFIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17
1 FIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
More informationMacro-Prudential Policy: Design and Implementation
Macro-Prudential Policy: Design and Implementation Sunil Sharma ADFIMI Development Forum Istanbul, Turkey, November 7, 2013 The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed
More informationDiscussion of The Effects of Fed Policy on EME Bond Markets by J. Burger, F. Warnock and V. Warnock
Discussion of The Effects of Fed Policy on EME Bond Markets by J. Burger, F. Warnock and V. Warnock Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil Santiago, Chile, November 2016 Twentieth Annual Conference
More informationMonetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia Hernando Vargas Banco de la República Colombia March, 2009 Contents I. The state of the Colombian economy
More informationReviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy
MINISTRY OF FINANCE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Reviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy Module 5 Contemporary Themes in India s Economic Development and the Economic Survey
More informationPOLICY RESPONSES IN ASIA TO CHANGING CAPITAL FLOWS MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: INDONESIA S EXPERIENCE. Dr. Rizki E. Wimanda, 3
21 POLICY RESPONSES IN ASIA TO CHANGING CAPITAL FLOWS MANAGING CAPITAL FLOWS: INDONESIA S EXPERIENCE By Dr. Rizki E. Wimanda, 3 1. Introduction In today's era of openness, monetary policy in one country
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationAN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN PERU: The Case of Dynamic Provisioning and Conditional Reserve Requirements
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN PERU: The Case of Dynamic Provisioning and Conditional Reserve Requirements June 2016 Miguel Cabello, José Lupú and Elías Minaya Outline 2 1. Motivation
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
20/12/2011 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Future cumulative inflation next 12 CPIs (through November 2012 CPI) Inflation
More informationImpact of Recent Crisis Episodes on China and India
Impact of Recent Crisis Episodes on China and India Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi PRESENTATION TO THE THE INSTITUTE OF CHINESE STUDIES, DELHI 13 TH MAY, 2015 Outline Background Recent
More informationGlobal Financial Crisis and The Turkish Economy
Global Financial Crisis and The Turkish Economy Kamil Yılmaz Director, TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Conference on Global Economic Slowdown and the Turkish Economy Paris, 14 November 28
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationFourth ICRIER-KAS Financial Sector Seminar on Financial Sector Developments, Issues, and the Way Forward,
Fourth ICRIER-KAS Financial Sector Seminar on Financial Sector Developments, Issues, and the Way Forward, December 14, 2011 Ashima Goyal 1 Structure of the Presentation Bank risks; GFC and relative ranking
More informationMizuho Insights. Fig 1. USD/IDR traded below 13,300. USD/IDR - Monthly Trading Range Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
Chang Wei Liang FX Strategist weiliang.chang@mizuho-cb.com Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Asia & Oceania Treasury Department Mizuho Insights (Ref: MI170914) September 14, 2017 IDR: Unshackled Bank Indonesia (BI) has
More informationInflation in IRAN Overview & Forecast
Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit Feb. 2016 Inflation in IRAN Overview & Forecast Q4-2015 No4 Research, Planning and Budgeting Division Economic Research Unit Feb. 2016 All
More informationRussian Federation. Recent Economic Developments and Challenges. October 2015 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE
Russian Federation Recent Economic Developments and Challenges IMF MOSCOW OFFICE October 215 1 Outline Shocks affecting Russia s economy Policy Reaction: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses Current economic
More informationCentral Bank Policy Mix: Reserve Bank of India s Experience. Anand Prakash Reserve Bank of India April 11, 2018
Central Bank Policy Mix: Reserve Bank of India s Experience Anand Prakash Reserve Bank of India April 11, 2018 Presentation Structure A brief description of salient features of major policies employed
More informationRecent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico
Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017
More informationCredit growth in Turkey: drivers and challenges
Credit growth in Turkey: drivers and challenges Erdem Başçı 1 1. Introduction After witnessing the most severe crisis of its recent history in 2001, the Turkish economy has rapidly recovered and is now
More informationYapı Kredi 2017 Earnings Presentation
Yapı Kredi 2017 Earnings Presentation 6 February 2018 Strong results leading to above guidance performance 3.6 bln TL Net Income +33% y/y 1 Ongoing strategy supporting net profit 13.6% ROATE 2 +170 bps
More informationLAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017
LAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017 May-June 2017 1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 2. Health Sector Financing in Lao PDR 1. Recent Economic Developments Contents 1. Key findings 2. Growth and inflation
More informationEfficacy of China s capital controls
Efficacy of China s capital controls RIETI/BIS/BOC conference Globalisation of financial servceis in China: implications for capital flows, supervision and monetary policy Beijing, 19 March 2005 Guonan
More information«RBI s Policy Dilemmas Reconciling Policy Goals in Times of Turbulence» by Bruno Carrasco & Hiranya Mukhopadhyay. Discussion by Salih Fendoğlu
«RBI s Policy Dilemmas Reconciling Policy Goals in Times of Turbulence» by Bruno Carrasco & Hiranya Mukhopadhyay Discussion by Salih Fendoğlu ECB-IMF Conference on International Dimensions of conventional
More informationMacroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia
Macroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia WORKSHOPS ON SUPPORTING ASIA PACIFIC LLDCs AND BHUTAN IN MOBILIZING RESOURCES FOR THE SDGs 14 December 201 Current state of macroeconomic and financial
More informationEvolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Japan s Experiences
Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Japan s Experiences CIGS Conference on Macroeconomic Theory and Policy May 29, 2017 Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Bank of Japan Shigenori SHIRATSUKA
More informationState of the Turkish Economy. Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October
State of the Turkish Economy Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October 11 2005 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 2 Agenda Overview of the Turkish economy Risks and priorities New anchor: EU What are the policy
More information3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August
3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, 2016-17 Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August 2016 1 Monetary Measures: Key Rates Measures CRR Unchanged at 4.00% Reverse Repo rate Unchanged at 6.00% (affixed
More informationCountry Background Argentina. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010
Country Background Argentina Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Macro Economic data 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Gross Domestic Product Constant 1993 AR$ millions - seasonally adjusted
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationManaging Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia
Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition
More informationMongolia Monthly Economic Brief
Mongolia Monthly Economic Brief June 21 Mongolia s economic growth in Q1 21, slowed to.% (y/y), down from % in the previous quarter. Investment sharply contracted by 1.% from the same quarter a year ago,
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationMonetary Policy, Financial Regulation and Procyclicality of the Financial System - The Indian Experience
Monetary Policy, Financial Regulation and Procyclicality of the Financial System - The Indian Experience Mohua Roy Monetary Policy Department Reserve Bank of India Outline of the Presentation Monetary
More informationMonthly Economic Review
Monthly Economic Review March 21 Economic Research Division İzlem Erdem Division Head izlem.erdem@isbank.com.tr Alper Gürler Unit Manager alper.gurler@isbank.com.tr H. Erhan Gül Asst. Manager erhan.gul@isbank.com.tr
More informationMonetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia. Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department
Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department Zurich, May 10, 2017 Monetary spillovers channels Exchange rate channel Domestic demand channel
More informationMonthly Economic Review February 2017
Monthly Economic Review February 217 Global Economy IMF published its World Economic Outlook Report in January. IMF revised up developed countries growth estimates for 217 and 218 compared to its October
More information