State of the Industry: Market Update

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1 State of the Industry: Market Update Ralf Garrison, Director - DestiMetrics Business Intelligence Tom Foley, Director - Inntopia Business Intelligence May 23, 2017

DestiMetrics: Mountain West Clients Aspen Destination/Lodging Avon, Colorado Research Jackson Program Hole Mountain West Markets What you ought to know Mammoth Lakes Big Sky North Lake Tahoe

2 DestiMetrics: Mountain West Clients Aspen Destination/Lodging Avon, Colorado Research Jackson Program Hole Mountain West Markets What you ought to know Mammoth Lakes Big Sky North Lake Tahoe Breckenridge about winter destinations Park City Area Beaver Creek Snowmass Copper Mountain Steamboat Gunnison/Crested Butte Summit County, CO Keystone Telluride Mt Bachelor Vail Winter Park 2

Destination/Lodging Research Sun/Fun Markets VISIT FLORIDA - Transient Lodging Inventory 25 County DMO s FLORIDA PANHANDLE Osceola-Kissimmee Monroe - Florida Keys Bay County - Panama City Beach Gulf

3 Destination/Lodging Research Sun/Fun Markets VISIT FLORIDA - Transient Lodging Inventory 25 County DMO s FLORIDA PANHANDLE Osceola-Kissimmee Monroe - Florida Keys Bay County - Panama City Beach Gulf Shores Okaloosa (New!) FUTURE - Prospective San Destin/Ft Walton Escambia - Pensacola Pinellas -Clearwater St Pete EASTERN SEABOARD/OTHER Hilton Head Golden Isles What you ought to know about summer destinations FUTURE- Prospective Myrtle Beach Virginia Beach Charleston Outer Banks HAWAII Oahu / Maui / Kauai /Kona 6 3

4 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

5 Situational Assessment Conditions which impact your ability to do business over which you have no direct control. 5

6 Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment January 06 January 17 20,941 Dow Jones Confidence Unemployment 4.4% 14

7 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment Last 90 Days Dow Jones: Record-setting performance Plateau in recent weeks Waiting for: Interest Rate Changes & Deregulation Currency & foreign markets remain an issue Potential challenges in Washington NAFTA Consumer Confidence Back to December 2000 levels Consumers willing to spend putting lodgers in charge Interest rates going up, inflation going up, earnings flat Unemployment Rate / Jobs Stable & Low Job Creation slightly variant, averaged 184k over winter Wages remain below inflation Long-term & marginally unemployed an issue NAFTA

8 8 Volatility Index Source: CNN Money, May 9, 2017

9 9 The Economy Trump-o-nomics International Domestic Mid-Market 9

10 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

11 Attractions Brand Magnets = Demand Generators Attractions vs Activities Anchor Attractions: Ski/Golf/Bike, etc Special Events Holidays; School Breaks Demand Enablers vs Generators 11

DESTINATION MAGNET Attractions that draw a guest from a

12 Attractions: Destination Magnet ATTRACTION: Reason to Go (on Vacation) ACTIVITY: Something to do (while on Vacation) DESTINATION MAGNET Attractions that draw a guest from a distance, requiring lodging and services for multiple nights. 12

13 Attractions: Update Purpose-Based Travel Experiential Friends/Family Occasions: Landmark Events Identity - Driven Travel Who You Are Wanna Be, not just what you do Trending Health /Wellness Recreational/Social exercise Foodie-based Tourism Post Title 9:, Pilates, Zumba, Barre More Indoors, Less Outdoors 13

14 46.7 Skier/Snowboarder Visits (millions) Estimated Skier Visits* 85/86-16/17 and 4 Year Moving Average 2016/ *Source: NSAA 14

YTD Golf Rounds Played 2016 Year To Date @ 3/31: NE Florida -3%

1% 20 15 10-10 -505-15 -20-25 -30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

15 YTD Golf Rounds Played 2016 Year To 3/31: NE Florida -3% National 0.6% Florida -5.6% South Carolina -3.4% S. Atlantic -1.1% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Florida S Carolina National South Atlantic NE Florida

16 Special Event Measurement Visitor type 100% 90% 2% 10% 15% 4% 14% 19% 17% 21% 27% 28% 80% 34% 38% 45% 37% 43% 50% 43% 70% 60% 55% 69% 60% 50% 40% 89% 83% 81% 77% 30% 20% Full-time resident Seasonal resident 70% 70% 63% 60% 53% 51% 50% 45% 40% 39% 10% 0% Day visitor Overnight visitor 34% 34% 33% 30% 24% 18% 16

17 Demand Enablers: School Break Report

18 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

19 Resort Lodging: Key Component of Destination Vacations: Enabler/ Limiting Factor Recession: 8 Year Roller Coaster of Supply & Demand Aging Bed-base Changing demand patterns: away from tradition Disintermediation from OTA s /Destination/Property Direct Emergence of RBO and Peer-to-Peer Networks 19

Lodging: Update: 2016 2017: Pillow Fight Advent/Growth of Alternative Accommodations Rapid Growth in the Rent-by-Owner: Sharing Economy Major Competition for

20 Lodging: Update: : Pillow Fight Advent/Growth of Alternative Accommodations Rapid Growth in the Rent-by-Owner: Sharing Economy Major Competition for Beds: Hot Warm Cold Morphing Channels: Peer-to-Peer no longer RBO Undergoing evolution, Dis-Intermediation, Disruption Heightened Regulatory Pushback now underway 20

21 Morphing Bed Base Rent By Owner Private Homes VRBO Airbnb Hotels HomeAway.com Condos Time Share Graphic representation not to scale.

22 22

23 NEW: Rent-By-Owner: Initiative 23

24 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

25 Transportation: Trends: Airline Industry Headline: Strongest Profitability Ever over the last four years. Airlines consistently profitable since 2010; trend should continue Profit drivers include capacity restraint aided by industry consolidation, lower fuel prices, increases in ancillary revenue Industry Consolidation top 5 now control 87% of U.S. Domestic Market. 81% is controlled by 4 airlines. Of the 19% controlled by all other, more than 50% is now Alaska and Jet Blue. International Trends Continued integration of global carriers, 25

26 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

27 Industry Wide Occupancy Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17 3% 1% 1% 0% -5% 0% -3%

28 Industry Wide ADR Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17 13% 13% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7%

29 Industry Wide RevPAR Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17 13% 14% 9% 7% 7% 1% 1%

30 Year over Year % Change Occupancy and ADR Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17

31 Industry Daily Occupancy Report Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17 31

UT) Occupancy -0.2% 0.9% 0. -0.3% ADR 7.

32 32 Regional Breakdown Winter 2016/17 Year over Year % Change in INDUSTRY-WIDE FAR WEST (CA, OR, NV) ROCKY MTNS (MT, WY, CO, UT) Occupancy -0.2% 0.9% % ADR 7.2% 2.9% 7.5% RevPAR 7.0% 3.8% 7.2%

33 33 Winter 2016/17 Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Spectrum AGGREGATE HIGH AGGREGATE LOW AGGREGATE AVERAGE DESTINATIONS GAIN / DECLINE Occupancy 60.6% 29.6% 48.4% 12/6 ADR $567 $141 $390 17/1 RevPAR $330 $46 $188 14/4

34 34 Winter Index Winter Gain / Loss: DMX Aggregate Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 2008/ /17 Actual vs 2007/08 Actual 50.0% % Chg RevPAR vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/ % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 26.8% 21.9% 3.6% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 15/16 vs '07/08 16/17 vs '07/09

35 35 Winter 7 Year Index to 2007/08 Winter Occupancy, Revenue, CCI & Skier Visits Winter Gain / Loss: DMX Aggregate Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 2008/ /17 Actual vs 2007/08 Actual (Include Skier Days) 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% % Chg RevPAR vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg Skier Days vs 2007/ % 21.9% 3.6% -9.6% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 15/16 vs '07/08 16/17 vs '07/08

36 Industry SouthEast Wide Occupancy Occupancy Winter Winter 2016/ /17 Data as of 4/30/17 8% 7% 1% 2% -3% -2% -2%

37 Industry SouthEast Wide ADR Occupancy Winter 2016/17 Winter 2016/17 Data as of 4/30/17 8% 5% 1% 0% 4% 0% -6%

38 Industry SouthEast Wide RevPAR Occupancy Winter Winter 2016/ /17 Data as of 4/30/17 17% 7% 12% 2% -2% -2% -8%

39 1. Situation Assessment Economy Attractions Lodging Transportation 2. Market Update Winter 2016/17 Review Summer 2017 Preview

40 Summer 2017 Business On the Books as % of 2016 total Summer 2017 as of Apr 30 Revenue 59.4% Summer 2017 as of Apr 30 Room Nights 51.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 Industry Wide Occupancy Summer 2017 Data as of 4/30/17 11% 5% 1% 0% -1% 1% 1%

42 Industry Wide ADR Summer 2017 Data as of 4/30/17 14% 4% 8% 9% 8% 5% 9%

43 Industry Wide RevPAR Summer 2017 Data as of 4/30/17 19% 16% 5% 8% 8% 8% 10%

44 Industry Year over Year % Change Occupancy and ADR Summer 2017 Data as of 4/30/17

45 Industry Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2017 Data as of 4/30/17 45

46 Thank You! Inntopia Insight 2017

Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council. Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics. Date: December 16, Mountain Travel Market Update I.

To: From: Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics Date: December 16, 2014 Subject: Mountain Travel Market Update I. BACKGROUND Ralf Garrison will give an update on market