Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

Transcription

1 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts SUMMARY FINDINGS The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level. manitoba.ca/lmi

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3 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...2 RÉSUMÉ...4 CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2016 to Introduction Manitoba s Labour Sources of Labour Job Openings by Occupation Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook Labour Force Participation Sources of Labour Supply Gaps: Labour less Labour Supply...22 CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS Introduction International, National and Provincial Economies International and National Outlook Provincial Review and Outlook Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba SECINC s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba s 2016 Custom Projection National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status National Labour Market Manitoba s Labour Market Population CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions...34

4 Page ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts APPENDICES Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba s Future Labour Force, 2015 to Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and 2015 to Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2016 to Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2016 to CHART LIST Chart 1: Manitoba Labour 2016 to Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source 2016 to Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion 2016 to Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2016 to Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected 2015 to Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and Projected Labour Force Growth 2015 to Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected 2015 to Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba 2015 to Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba 2015 to Chart 10: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected 2015 to Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected 2015 to Chart 12: Manitoba Age Distribution Change 2015 to

5 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page iii TABLE LIST Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2016 to Table 5: Labour and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2015 to Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2011 to

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7 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 1 Preface The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, with guidance from the Minister s Advisory Council on Workforce Development (MACWD). We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results. We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2016 to 2022 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand. The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2016, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2016 and 2022 provided in this report. It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and interoccupation migrants, over the next seven years. While the results of Manitoba s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution. Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

8 Page 2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Manitoba economy will see a total of 167,700 job openings between 2016 and 2022, with 67 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 24,000 total job openings per year. Manitoba s economy will see 165,500 new workers join the labour force between 2016 and 2022, or approximately 23,600 workers a year. Manitoba s unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 per cent annually from 2016 to Manitoba s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.3 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.7 per cent annually. Total Labour Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at 26,300 or 15.7 per cent; and management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 per cent. Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations. For all occupation groups, except health occupations, where expansion demand is greater, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. With regard to educational requirements, of the 167,700 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 62 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 38 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. A total of 167,700 job openings will be created between 2016 and Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 55,000 job openings (33 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,700 job openings (67 per cent of the total). The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.9 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook.

9 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 3 Total Labour Supply It is forecasted that there will be an additional 165,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand. The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net other in-mobility workers. With 165,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 52,800 persons over the forecast period. Gaps in versus Supply Overall, Manitoba s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. In each year from 2016 to 2022, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 3,300 workers. While the gap is more significant between 2016 and 2018 with an average of 4,800, it closes to about 2,200 over the last four years of the forecast period, with supply estimated to outpace demand by 2,000 workers in Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 2,200 workers. The unemployment rate is expected to be highest in 2016 and then continue to decrease over the forecast period as labour demand grows slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in 2022.

10 Page 4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022 RÉSUMÉ L économie manitobaine verra la création d un total de possibilités d emploi au cours de la période ; 67 % de celles-ci viseront à pourvoir aux postes vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, il y aura environ possibilités d emploi créées au total par année. L économie manitobaine verra nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période , soit environ travailleurs par année. Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait diminuer, passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en Après le rajustement pour l inflation, l économie du Manitoba devrait s accroître environ de 1,8 % par année durant la période Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,3 % par an en moyenne pendant les sept prochaines années. Cela devrait faire augmenter les revenus personnels au Manitoba de 3,7 % par an en moyenne durant la même période. e totale de main-d œuvre Au total, possibilités d emploi seront créées entre 2016 et Selon les prévisions, la demande d expansion (nouveaux emplois découlant de la croissance économique) devrait créer nouveaux emplois (33 % du total). La demande de remplacement (emplois créés en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer emplois (67 % du total). Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus de créations d emplois est celui de la vente et des services avec possibilités d emploi prévues, soit 19,9 % du total des perspectives d emploi au Manitoba. En Affaires, finances et administration, on estime que emplois (15,7 %) seront créés, ainsi que (13,8 %) dans le secteur de la gestion. Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et des services, la plus grande création d emploi devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants : nettoyeurs, vendeurs de commerce de détail et serveurs et serveuses au comptoir, aides de cuisine et personnel assimilé. Pour la période envisagée, la demande de remplacement est plus importante que la demande d expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels, à l exception de ceux du secteur de la santé où la demande d expansion prime. En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept années envisagée, parmi les créations d emplois prévues, environ 62 % d entre elles devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de formation et d études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat professionnel). Les 38 % restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d études ou de formations postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une formation spécifique à l emploi ou une formation en cours d emploi.

11 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022 Page 5 Offre totale de main-d œuvre Il devrait y avoir travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer la demande totale de main-d œuvre. L offre supplémentaire de main-d œuvre devrait se décomposer comme suit : personnes faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, personnes provenant de la migration nette et personnes provenant de la mobilité de la main-d œuvre nette. Étant donné que nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance de personnes pendant la période envisagée. Écarts entre l offre et la demande Dans l ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d œuvre en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d œuvre pour certaines professions et dans certaines régions de la province. Chaque année, entre 2016 et 2022, l offre de maind œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande, à raison de travailleurs en moyenne. Bien que l écart soit plus important entre 2016 et 2018, avec une différence de travailleurs en moyenne, il devrait redescendre à environ travailleurs à la fin des quatre dernières années de la période envisagée, et l offre devrait dépasser la demande de travailleurs d ici Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la demande totale de main-d œuvre devrait dépasser la croissance de l offre totale de main-d œuvre de travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait culminer en 2016, puis continuer à diminuer tout au long de la période envisagée vu que la demande de main-d œuvre s accroît légèrement plus vite que l offre de main-d œuvre à partir de Dans l ensemble, le taux de chômage devrait baisser, passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en 2022.

12 Page 6 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2016 to Introduction In this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided. The model used to produce Manitoba s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba s economic performance and estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province s expected future economic and demographic performance. It then explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements. The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates the number of young people leaving the education system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers. An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements. The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report. Glossary Job openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time period Expansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforce Replacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the population New entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour force Net in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job Net other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation rates Net in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force

13 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page Manitoba s Labour The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers. The model also considers the impact of migration on economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers. Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow from 674,300 in 2016 to 724,900 in 2022 an increase of 50,600 jobs, through economic growth. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 7.5 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 1.1 per cent each year. Thousands Chart 1: Manitoba Labour 2016 to Sources of Labour New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2018 and 2019, when it is forecasted to be 9,300 and 9,700 respectively. In addition to the expansion demand of 55,000, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 112,700 job openings between 2016 and In three of the seven years over the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand. Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 167,700 job openings between 2016 and 2022.

14 Page 8 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Number 30,000 Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source 2016 to ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Job Openings by Occupation Deaths Retirements Expansion The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.9 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 26,300 or 15.7 per cent; and management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for nearly 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 2,400 projected job openings over the forecast period. Analysis of job openings by more detailed three digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups: cleaners retail salespersons food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations

15 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 9 Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: administrative and regulatory occupations general office workers office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical Within management occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups: retail and wholesale trade managers managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture legislators and senior management Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups. As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups except health occupations, where expansion demand is greater, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 67 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 33 per cent of the 167,700 total job openings over the forecast period. Comparing occupational groups, occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations have the highest percentage of replacement demand at 95.9 per cent, while health occupations have the lowest at 43.6 per cent. Health was the only group where expansion demand exceeded replacement demand over the forecast period. Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2016 and 2022 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level).

16 Page 10 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion to 2022 Sales and service occupations Business, finance and administration occupations Management occupations Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services Health occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Occupations in manufacturing and utilities Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Number of Workers Expansion Replacement

17 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 11 Table 1: Job openings by One-digit NOC and Source to 2022 Expansion Replacement Total job openings Replacement demand % Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 100 2,300 2, % Art, culture, recreation and sport 700 2,100 2, % Manufacturing and utilities 1,400 5,500 6, % Natural and applied sciences 3,000 5,300 8, % Health 11,700 9,000 20, % Education, law and social, community and government services Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 9,600 11,300 20, % 5,300 17,600 22, % Management 3,400 19,700 23, % Sales and services 12,500 20,800 33, % Business, finance and administration 7,200 19,100 26, % Total 55, , , %

18 Page 12 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source to 2022 Expansion Replacement demand Total hiring demand Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 1,400 5,200 6,600 Professional occupations in business and finance 800 3,000 3,800 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 2,600 7,100 9, ,300 1,500 Office support occupations 2,900 5,300 8,200 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 800 2,300 3,100 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 1,500 2,200 3,700 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 1,500 3,100 4,600 Professional occupations in nursing 4,100 3,500 7,600 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 2,000 1,300 3,300 Technical occupations in health 2,200 1,800 4,000 Assisting occupations in support of health services 3,300 2,400 5,700 Professional occupations in education services 2,300 3,300 5,600 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 1,500 2,700 4,200 2,700 2,200 4,900 Occupations in front-line public protection services Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 2,700 2,600 5,300 Professional occupations in art and culture ,000 Continued on next page.

19 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 13 Expansion Replacement demand Total hiring demand Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 400 1,400 1,800 Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 500 1,800 2,300 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 2,100 2,700 4,800 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 1,600 3,600 5,200 2,700 5,000 7,700 Sales support occupations 1,600 2,000 3,600 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,100 5,700 9,800 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 2,500 6,500 9,000 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 900 4,300 5,200 Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production 500 1,100 1, ,400 5, ,300 2, , Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers ,000 Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers 400 1,300 1, ,800 2,200 Assemblers in manufacturing 200 1,500 1,700 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities ,400 *n.e.c. not elsewhere classified

20 Page 14 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training It is projected that of the 167,700 forecasted job openings, approximately 103,500 positions (62 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, trade certification, university). These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified as NOC 2011 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill level B. The remaining 38 per cent of projected job openings, or 64,200 positions, may not require post-secondary training or education, but may have occupationspecific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupationspecific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, are a smaller portion. Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2016 to Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2016 to ,300, 28% 17,900, 11% 52,300, 31% 51,200, 31% NOC O/A - Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education NOC B - Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training NOC D - Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training

21 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 15 Replacement demand is projected to be similar for skill level 0/A, B and C, while expansion demand varies. Occupations in skill level D are projected to have lower replacement and expansion demand. The largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 20,400 and 20,200 respectively (refer to Table 3), while the share of expansion demand-driven jobs is highest for unskilled occupations, at 40.5 per cent. Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to 2022 NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand Replacement demand Total job openings Replacement demand % NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional 16,000 36,300 52, % NOC B - Technical and Skilled 16,600 34,600 51, % NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and operator 15,200 31,100 46, % NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,200 10,700 17, % Total 55, , , % High-demand occupations by Industry Sector Manitoba s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to that for capital. Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand). Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.

22 Page 16 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,200 Managers in agriculture 3,500 Management Restaurant and food service managers 1,100 Construction managers 900 Manufacturing managers 900 Administrative assistants 3,300 Business, Finance and Administration Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Health occupations Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services General office support workers 3,000 Administrative officers 2,900 Accounting and related clerks 1,700 Financial auditors and accountants 1,500 Information systems analysts and consultants 800 Civil engineers 500 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 500 Computer network technicians 500 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 400 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 7,500 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,900 Licensed practical nurses 1,100 Specialist physicians 800 Pharmacists 600 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,100 Early childhood educators and assistants 2,400 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,400 Social and community service workers 2,100 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 1,900 Continued on next page.

23 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 17 Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings Graphic designers and illustrators 400 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 200 Musicians and singers 200 Interior designers and interior decorators 200 Retail salespersons 4,200 Sales and service occupations Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations Light duty cleaners 3,200 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,800 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,600 Cooks 2,100 Carpenters 2,500 Transport truck drivers 2,200 Construction trades helpers and labourers 1,700 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 1,200 Material handlers 1,100 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 1,000 General farm workers 500 Underground production and development miners 300 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 200 Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services 100

24 Page 18 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics combined with projected age-specific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba s labour force at 674,100 people in Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period. Over the forecast period, Manitoba s labour force is expected to grow by 52,800 people (7.8 per cent) to 726,900 people by This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent, or an average of 7,500 persons per year. Within the projection period, Manitoba s labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rate in 2016 (0.8 per cent), before increasing and stabilizing between 1.0 and 1.2 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period. This slowed growth compared to previous years reflects an increase in the proportion of population in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates. Thousands Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected to

25 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 19 Per cent 2.5 Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and Projected Labour Force Growth to Labour Force Participation Manitoba s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.2 percentage points between 2016 and 2022, to 67.8 per cent. This slight decline reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population. Per cent Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected to

26 Page 20 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Sources of Labour Supply Over the forecast period, Manitoba s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net other mobility workers (for a total 165,500 workers) will be required to replace people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 165,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba will increase by 52,800 persons. The components of the projected change in Manitoba s labour force are: new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job. Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (ex: after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (ex: increased desire for people to enter the labour force). New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,300 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 16,100 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements. Chart 8 shows a decrease in net other mobility between 2015 and This decrease can be explained by a previous drop in participation rate between 2013 and 2014, resulting in a decrease in the number of persons in the labour force by almost 5,000. In 2015, the participation rate increases back to previous levels by bringing workers back into the labour force through a significant increase in net other mobility. Chart 9 illustrates this relationship between labour force participation rates and unemployment rates.

27 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 21 Number of Workers 30,000 Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change 2015 to ,000 10, ,000-20, Net Other In-Mobility Net In-Migration New Entrants Retirements & Deaths Labour Force Change Per cent 68.4 Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate 2015 to 2022 Per cent Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) 5.0

28 Page 22 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Gaps: Labour less Labour Supply Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets. Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2015 and In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than labour demand. This gap between the supply of labour and labour demand averages 3,450 workers per year. Over the last four years of the forecast period, the gap will close significantly, from an average of 4,675 between 2015 and 2018 to 2,225 for the last four years. For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain balanced. Table 5: Labour and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to Labour Force demand 669, , , , , , , ,900 Labour Force Supply 674, , , , , , , ,900 demand imbalance -4,200-5,400-5,000-4,100-2,800-2,300-1,800-2,000 Labour shortages by occupation groups Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). When considered as a percentage of the total labour force, the gaps between labour demand and supply in each year range from 0.0 per cent to 0.2 per cent for each of the groups. For almost all occupation groups, supply exceeds demand in all years of the projection period. Only Health occupations are expected to see demand levels slightly higher than the forecasted supply over the last two years of the forecast. It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups. The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility). Between 2016 and 2022, net other mobility is forecasted to add 34,000 persons to Manitoba s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand. If these assumptions are not met, more labour shortages could be expected.

29 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 23 Occupations with significant labour market tightness Methodology The occupational model used to create Manitoba s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them. To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the relative risk or difficulty across occupations of obtaining their estimated supply requirements. This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality. This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations. Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks. The demand measure focuses on demand pressure as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed. The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration and the occupation s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province. The third measure is the difference between an occupation s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa. There are three ranks numbered from one-to-three for each measure: Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than sufficient workers available to meet demand. pressure is lower than normal, there is less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs, and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to find workers; Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation where organizations can rely on their traditional methods for obtaining workers. pressure is normal, organizations may have to rely on migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not different from what they have faced in the past, and the unemployment rate gap is small; and Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than normal must be placed on organizations to access migrants to meet their worker requirements and the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It will be relatively more difficult to find workers. It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading. For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure

30 Page 24 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank. The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150. Results Labour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential longterm supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of three are highlighted in Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average of the supply, demand and unemployment rate gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2015 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations. In terms of industry sectors, health occupations display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 52.8 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by natural and applied sciences and related occupations (43.5 per cent) and trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations with 20.0 per cent. Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the seven years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data.

31 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Page 25 Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to 2022 Occupational group Occupation Business, finance and administration Natural and applied sciences Health Education, law and social, community and government services Sales and service Trades Manufacturing and Utilities Court officers and justices of the peace Health information management occupations Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations Geological and mineral technologists and technicians Construction estimators Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses Allied primary health practitioners Medical laboratory technologists Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists Medical radiation technologists Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c. Licensed practical nurses Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Journalists Travel counsellors Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks Casino occupations Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations Telecommunications line and cable workers Telecommunications installation and repair workers Carpenters Railway carmen/women Railway and yard locomotive engineers Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers *n.e.c. not elsewhere classified