Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020

Transcription

1 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 SUMMARY FINDINGS The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level. manitoba.ca/lmi

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE...1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 2 RÉSUMÉ... 4 CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK, SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2014 to Introduction Manitoba s Labour Demand Sources of Labour Demand Job Openings by Occupation Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook Labour Force Participation Change in Labour Force Age Distribution Sources of Labour Supply Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply...18 CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS Introduction International, National and Provincial Economies International and National Outlook Provincial Review and Outlook Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba SECINC s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba s 2014 Custom Projection National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status National Labour Market...23 CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions... 28

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba s Future Labour Force, 2013 to Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand 2013 to Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2014 to CHART LIST Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand 2013 to Chart 2: Job Openings by Source 2013 to Chart 3: Occupation Groups (one-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion Demand 2014 to Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2014 to Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force 2000 to Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Growth 2001 to Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate 2000 to Chart 8: Manitoba Labour Force Age Distribution 2013 to Chart 9: Manitoba Labour Force by Age Group Chart 10: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba 2013 to Chart 11: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba 2013 to Chart 12: Labour Demand Less Labour Supply 2013 to Chart 13: Manitoba Population Estimated and Projected 2000 to Chart 14: Manitoba Age Distribution Estimated and Projected 2013 & Chart 15: Manitoba Age Distribution Change 2013 to

5 TABLE LIST Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2014 to Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2014 to Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2014 to Table 4: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2013 to Table 5: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2013 to Table 6: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2009 to

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7 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 1 Preface The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2014 to 2020 is produced by Manitoba Jobs and the Economy, with guidance from the Minister s Advisory Council on Workforce Development (MACWD). We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results. We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Finance and Manitoba Labour and Immigration. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2014 to 2020 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve understanding of the state of the Manitoba labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet the demand. The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Jobs and the Economy with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2014, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2014 and 2020 provided in this report. These results are intended to assist government and stakeholders in planning and promoting awareness and discussion about occupation labour markets and their implications for industry and government initiatives. It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and interoccupation migrants over the next seven years. While the results of Manitoba s custom projection offer an internally-consistent, comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, precise statements should not be made on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecast to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution. Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

8 Page 2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Estimates for Manitoba s labour demand and supply between 2014 and 2020 The Manitoba economy will see a total of 176,100 job openings between 2014 and 2020, with 65 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts project just under 25,200 total job openings per year. Manitoba s economy will see 175,200 new workers join the labour force between 2014 and 2020, or just over 25,000 workers a year. Manitoba s unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively steady but decline from 5.3 per cent in 2014 to 5.2 per cent in The stable unemployment rate reflects a balanced labour market over the long term. After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba s economy is expected to grow by 2.2 per cent annually from 2014 to Manitoba s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by three per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by 4.5 per cent annually. Total Labour Demand: A total of 176,100 job openings will be created. Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 61,400 job openings (35 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 114,700 job openings (65 per cent of the total). The occupation group with the most expected job openings is business, finance and administration at 31,700, or 18 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. Sales and services is estimated at 29,700 or 16.9 per cent; and management occupations at 24,000 or 13.6 per cent. Within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings are expected for the following subgroups: o administrative and regulatory occupations o general office workers o office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical o financial, insurance and related administrative support workers o auditors, accountants and investment professionals Job openings for management occupations are heavily weighted toward replacement demand at 80 per cent, while health occupations have the lowest percentage of replacement demand at 49 per cent. With regard to educational requirements, of the 176,100 forecasted job openings, approximately 63 per cent over the seven-year period are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 37 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.

9 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 3 Total Labour Supply: It is forecasted that there will be an additional 175,200 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand. The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 95,100 new entrants, 44,100 net in-migrants and 36,100 workers re-entering the labour force. With 175,200 workers joining the labour force and 114,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 60,600 persons. Gaps in Demand versus Supply Overall Manitoba s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply for labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. In 2014, labour supply exceeds labour demand by 1,900 workers (0.3 per cent of the labour force). Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 800 workers so that by 2020, labour supply is expected to remain higher than labour demand by only 1,000 workers (0.1 per cent of the labour force). The unemployment rate is expected to decrease between 2016 and 2018 when labour demand grows slightly faster than supply and is expected to increase in the last two years of the forecast period. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecast to decline slightly from 5.3 per cent in 2014 to 5.2 per cent in 2020.

10 Page 4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2014 à 2020 RÉSUMÉ Estimations relatives à la demande et à l offre de main-d œuvre au Manitoba pour la période L économie manitobaine verra un total de possibilités d emploi créées au cours de la période ; 65 % de celles-ci viseront à pourvoir aux postes vacants libérés en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, il y aura un peu moins de possibilités d emploi créées au total par an. L économie manitobaine verra nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période , soit un peu plus de travailleurs par an. Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait demeurer relativement stable, baissant de 5,3 % en 2014 à 5,2 % en Le taux de chômage stable reflète un marché du travail équilibré à long terme. Après le rajustement en fonction de l inflation, l économie du Manitoba devrait s accroître de 2,2 % par an durant la période Au Manitoba, le marché du travail devrait augmenter le revenu horaire total du travail de 3 % par an pendant les sept prochaines années. Cela devrait faire augmenter les revenus personnels au Manitoba de 4,5 % par an durant la même période. Demande totale de main-d œuvre Au total, possibilités d emploi seront créées. Selon les prévisions, la croissance économique entraînera une demande d expansion de nouveaux emplois (35 % du total). Les départs à la retraite et les décès devraient entraîner une demande de remplacement de emplois (65 % du total). Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus de débouchés est celui des affaires, des finances et de l administration ( possibilités d emploi prévues, soit 18 % du total des perspectives d emploi au Manitoba). Les possibilités d emploi devraient atteindre (16,9 % du total) dans le domaine de la vente et des services, et (13,6 % du total) dans le domaine de la gestion. Au sein du groupe professionnel des affaires, des finances et de l administration, le plus grand nombre d offres d emploi devraient être dans les sous-groupes suivants : o personnel administratif et de réglementation; o personnel au travail général de bureau; o adjoints administratifs de bureau - général, juridique et médical; o finance, assurance et personnel de soutien administratif; o professionnels en finance, en vérification et en comptabilité. Les possibilités d emploi en gestion sont en grande partie liées à la demande de remplacement (80 %), tandis que le secteur de la santé a la plus faible demande de remplacement (49 %). En ce qui concerne les exigences scolaires, pendant les sept années de projection, parmi les possibilités d emploi prévues, environ 63 % d entre elles nécessiteront un certain niveau de formation et d études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplôme au terme d études collégiales ou universitaires, ou un certificat d une école de métiers). Les 37 % restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d études ou de formation postsecondaires, mais pourraient exiger une formation spécifique à l emploi ou une formation en cours d emploi.

11 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2014 à 2020 Page 5 Offre totale de main-d œuvre On prévoit travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période de projection pour contrebalancer la demande totale de maind œuvre. L offre supplémentaire de main-d œuvre devrait se composer de personnes entrant sur le marché du travail, d une migration d entrée nette de personnes et de travailleurs qui reviennent sur le marché du travail. Étant donné que nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance de travailleurs. Écarts entre l offre et la demande Dans l ensemble, le marché du travail devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période de projection, c est-à-dire que l offre de main-d œuvre sera suffisante pour répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d œuvre pour des professions individuelles ou dans certaines régions de la province. En 2014, l écart entre l offre et la demande de main-d œuvre est de travailleurs (soit 0,3 % de la population active). Au cours de la période de projection, l écart entre la croissance de la demande de main-d œuvre et celle de l offre de main-d œuvre au total sera de 800 travailleurs de sorte que dès 2020, l offre devrait dépasser la demande par seulement travailleurs (soit 0,1 % de la population active). Le taux de chômage devrait baisser entre 2016 et 2018, quand la demande de main-d œuvre augmente un peu plus rapidement que l offre, et devrait augmenter au cours des deux dernières années de la période de projection. Dans l ensemble, il est prévu que le taux de chômage baissera de 5,3 % en 2014 à 5,2 % en 2020.

12 Page 6 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook, Summary Findings, 2014 to Introduction In this chapter the summary findings from Manitoba s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate is provided for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands. 1.2 Manitoba s Labour Demand Sources of Labour Demand Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow from 667,200 in 2013 to 728,600 in 2020 an increase of 61,400 jobs, through economic growth. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 9.2 per cent growth in labour demand (an average of 1.3 per cent each year). New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be stronger in the first part of the forecast period resulting in an average of 10,600 job openings per year between 2014 and 2017, compared to 6,400 per year between 2018 and Thousands Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand 2013 to

13 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 7 In addition to the expansion demand of 61,400, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 114,700 job openings between 2014 and Replacement demand is also expected to be higher in the first four years of the forecast period with an average of 23,500 job openings per year between 2014 and 2017 and 6,800 job openings per year between 2018 and Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 176,100 job openings between 2014 and Number 35,000 Chart 2: Job Openings by Source Manitoba to ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Expansion Demand Deaths Retirements Job Openings by Occupation The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is business, finance and administration at 31,700 or 18 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by sales and service occupations at 29,700 or 16.9 per cent; and management occupations at 24,000 or 13.6 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for almost 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations. Analysis of job openings by more detailed National Occupation Classification (NOC) codes show that within management occupations the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups: managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture retail and wholesale trade managers legislators and senior management

14 Page 8 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Similarly within the business, finance and administration occupation group the highest number of job openings are expected for the following subgroups: administrative and regulatory occupations general office workers office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical financial, insurance and related administrative support workers auditors, accountants and investment professionals Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups. For all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 65 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 35 per cent of the 176,100 total job openings over the forecast period. Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion Demand Manitoba to 2020 Business, finance and administration Sales and services Management Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Education, law and social, community and government services Health Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Manufacturing and utilities Art, culture, recreation and sport Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 Number of Workers Expansion Demand Replacement Demand

15 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 9 Comparing occupational groups, occupations in manufacturing and utilities have the highest percentage of replacement demand at 79.8 per cent, while health occupations have the lowest at 49.1 per cent. Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2014 and 2020 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level). Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2014 to 2020 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Job Openings Replacement Demand (%) Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 900 1,600 2, % Art, culture, recreation and sport 1,500 1,800 3, % Manufacturing and utilities 1,700 6,700 8, % Natural and applied sciences 3,400 6,300 9, % Health 10,800 10,400 21, % Education, law and social, community and government services Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 8,700 13,500 22, % 7,100 16,200 23, % Management 5,000 19,000 24, % Sales and services 12,100 17,500 29, % Business, finance and administration 10,200 21,500 31, % Total 61, , , %

16 Page 10 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2014 to 2020 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Hiring Demand Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 1,400 4,900 6,300 Professional occupations in business and finance 1,400 3,000 4,500 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 2,900 7,400 10, ,900 2,700 Office support occupations 3,600 6,200 9,700 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 1,400 3,000 4,500 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 1,600 3,000 4,600 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 1,800 3,300 5,100 Professional occupations in nursing 4,100 4,000 8,100 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 1,700 1,600 3,300 Technical occupations in health 1,900 2,100 4,100 Assisting occupations in support of health services 3,100 2,700 5,800 Professional occupations in education services 1,600 4,400 6,000 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 1,900 2,600 4,500 2,600 2,500 5,200 Occupations in front-line public protection services 500 1,000 1,500 Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 2,100 3,000 5,200 Professional occupations in art and culture ,300 Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1,000 1,100 2,100 Continued on next page.

17 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 11 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Hiring Demand Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 600 2,000 2,600 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 2,000 2,200 4,200 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 1,400 3,500 4,900 3,200 3,800 7,000 Sales support occupations 1,000 1,400 2,400 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,000 4,600 8,600 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 3,100 5,700 8,800 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 1,700 4,100 5,700 Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production 500 1,300 1,800 1,100 4,300 5, ,000 1, Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers 500 1,500 2, ,100 2,300 Assemblers in manufacturing 700 1,800 2,500 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 300 1,300 1,600 *n.e.c. not elsewhere classified

18 Page 12 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training Of the 176,100 forecasted job openings, it is projected that approximately 111,100 positions (63 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, trade certification, university). These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified as NOC 2011 skill level O/A, or technical and skilled occupations, skill level B. Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2014 to ,900, 28% 15,000, 9% 56,100, 32% 55,000, 31% NOC O/A - Managerial and Professional Occupations Usually Requiring University Education NOC B - Technical and Skilled Occupations Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Occupations Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training NOC D - Elemental and Labouring Occupations Usually Providing On-the-Job Training The remaining 37 per cent of projected job openings, or 64,900 positions, may not require post-secondary training or education but may require occupationspecific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, are a smaller portion. Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2014 to Replacement demand is projected to be similar for skill level O/A, B and C, while expansion demand varies. Occupations in skill level D are projected to have lower replacement and expansion demand. The largest number of expansion demand-driven jobs is expected in skill level B at 19,700 (Refer to Table 3).

19 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 13 Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2014 to 2020 NOC Skill Levels Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Job Openings Replacement Demand (%) NOC O/A - Managerial and Professional 17,800 38,300 56, % NOC B - Technical and Skilled 19,700 35,400 55, % NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and Operator 17,600 32,300 49, % NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 6,400 8,700 15, % Total 61, , , % 1.3 Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook The population estimates produced by Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and projected age-specific labour force participation rates are used to project Manitoba s labour force. The Manitoba labour force averaged 669,000 people in Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force in nine of the previous 10 years and is projected to see growth throughout the seven-year projection period. The labour force grew by 54,000 people (8.8 per cent) from 2006 to 2013 and is expected to grow by 60,600 people (9.1 per cent) to 729,600 people in This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.3 per cent or 8,714 persons. Thousands Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force Estimated and Projected to

20 Page 14 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Thousands Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Growth Estimated and Projected to Within the projection period, Manitoba s labour force is expected to grow at 1.5 per cent over the first four years. In the later three years, the growth rate is expected to drop to one (1.0) per cent. This decline is likely due to an increase in the proportion of population in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates Labour Force Participation Manitoba s overall labour force participation rate is projected to increase over the first four years of the seven-year projection period and then decrease. Overall, a small increase is expected, from 68.7 per cent in 2013 to 68.8 per cent in Per cent 70.0 Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate Estimated and Projected to

21 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page Change in Labour Force Age Distribution Over the projection period, youth aged 15 to 24 years are expected to lose a small portion of the 15.2 per cent 2013 labour force share because the number of people in this group will fall by 16,100 (15.8 per cent). The only other group expected to have fewer people is the 55 to 64-year-old age group, with a loss of 2,000 people (two per cent), dropping to a 13.7 per cent share of the labour force. Thousands Chart 8: Manitoba Labour Force Age Distribution Change to Age group The 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 age groups are expected to see a gain of 32,000 (21.6 per cent) and 43,300 (31.5 per cent) respectively. These two age groups will together account for 49.5 per cent of the total labour force in 2020.

22 Page 16 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Per cent 30% Chart 9: Manitoba Labour Force Age Distribution % 20% 24.7% 24.8% 20.3% 15% 10% 11.7% 13.7% 5% 4.8% % and over Age group Sources of Labour Supply As noted earlier in this report, Manitoba s labour force is estimated to grow from approximately 669,000 in 2013 to 729,600 in This represents an increase of 9.1 per cent or 60,600 people in the labour force. The components of the projected change in Manitoba s labour force are: new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force net in-mobility (net in-migration plus the net other mobility) which can add or subtract from the labour force Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job. Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as workers re-entering the labour force (ex: after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (ex: increased desire for people to enter the labour force). New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,600 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 16,400 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements. Over the forecast period, Manitoba s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 95,100 new job entrants, 44,100 net in-migrants and 36,100 net other mobility workers (for a total 175,200 workers) will be required to replace people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 175,200 workers joining the labour force and 114,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths the total labour force in Manitoba will increase by 60,600 persons.

23 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 17 Number of Workers Chart 10: Sources of Labour Force Change Manitoba to ,000 20,000 10, ,000-20, New Entrants Net In-Migration Net Other Mobility Deaths & Retirements Labour Force Change Chart 10 shows that net other mobility is increasing in the initial years of the forecast period. This increase can be explained by rising participation rates. As the economy cycles up in the initial years of the forecast period, the unemployment rate decreases, drawing additional workers into the labour force (these additional workers are included in the net other mobility projection). The participation rate starts to decline towards the later part of the forecast period resulting in a decline in net other mobility workers.

24 Page 18 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Per cent Chart 11: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate Manitoba to Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Per cent Chart 11 shows the relationship between labour force participation rates and unemployment rates. 1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply Overall the labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply for labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However labour shortages exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets. Chart 12 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2013 and In four of the seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than labour demand. In 2016 and 2017 labour demand is expected to increase faster than labour supply due to economic growth. This will result in total labour demand exceeding total labour supply between 2016 and Towards the end of the forecast period labour supply is again expected to catch up with the increased labour demand. In 2014, labour supply exceeds labour demand by 1,900 workers (0.3 per cent of labour force). Therefore, even though total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 800 workers in the projection period, in 2020, labour supply is expected to remain higher than labour demand by 1,000 workers (0.1 per cent of labour force).

25 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 19 For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 per cent), and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain balanced. Number of Workers Chart 12: Labour Demand Less Labour Supply 2013 to

26 Page 20 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Labour shortages by broad occupation groups Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). When considered as a percentage of the labour force, the gaps between labour demand and supply in each year range from 0.0 per cent to 0.5 per cent for each of the 10 major occupation groups. For health occupations, supply exceeds demand in only two of the seven years of the projection period. For all other occupations, supply exceeds demand in at least four years of the projection period. It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups. Table 4: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2013 to 2020 NOC Total All Occupations Labour Force Demand 667, , , , , , , ,600 Labour Force Supply 669, , , , , , , ,600 Demand imbalance -1,800-1,900-2, , ,400-1,000 The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility). Between 2014 and 2020, net other mobility is forecasted to add 36,100 persons to Manitoba s labour supply. In other word, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand. If these assumptions are not met then more labour shortages could be expected.

27 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 21 Chapter 2: Economic and Labour Market Outlooks 2.1 Introduction Economic and demographic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), domestic consumption, commodity prices, population and immigration serve as inputs for the occupational model that is used to generate custom occupational forecasts for Manitoba. This chapter provides a review of the economic and labour market outlook from internal and external forecasting sources. 2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies International and National Outlook Five years after the Great Recession, global economic conditions remain tenuous with emerging market economies slowing and advanced economies gradually improving. According to the World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund in April 2014, the world economy is expected to continue to improve in Although the euro area has resumed growth after two years of contraction, the momentum in two of the world s largest economies, China and the U.S., is slower than previously anticipated. As a result, the IMF revised its world growth forecast to 3.6 per cent in 2014 and 3.9 per cent in 2015, a downward revision from last year s forecast. Growth in Canada has softened in conjunction with global economic conditions. The export sector has progressively decelerated over the past three years as demand for commodities and manufactured products have diminished. Domestic spending is being restrained by the uncertain economic environment. Real GDP in Canada is projected to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2014 and by 2.5 per cent in The labour market is expected to remain stable, and the unemployment rate is forecast to gradually fall to 6.6 per cent by According to the Bank of Canada, the lower Canadian dollar could increase global demand for Canadian goods and services. Combined with high oil prices, the increase in demand for Canadian goods and services will stimulate business investment in Canada and move the economy to a more sustainable growth track Provincial Review and Outlook The Manitoba economy has remained relatively steady in an uncertain global economic climate. Through the post-recession period, the high level of industrial diversity and a balance between domestic demand and export sales have provided Manitoba with modest and stable economic growth. Since 2008, Manitoba has averaged 1.8 per cent growth, the second highest among provinces. Preliminary estimates from Manitoba Bureau of Statistics suggest that the province s real GDP increased by 2.4 per cent in Increased investments in residential and non-residential construction, and an increase in consumer spending, led to an increase in domestic demand of 2.8 per cent in The recovery in crop production in 2012 and the record harvest last summer contributed to a sharp rebound in exports. The U.S. is Manitoba s largest international trading partner, accounting for 67 per cent of foreign sales. Despite the slow recovery of the U.S. economy, Manitoba s exports to the U.S. increased by 11.4 per cent in 2013, the second highest among provinces. This increase followed a 7.9 per cent growth in export to the U.S. in Manitoba has also significantly increased its reach into the rapidly growing regions of the world by broadening its export base to Asia. Among all provinces, Manitoba has the secondhighest share of foreign exports to Asia.

28 Page 22 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 In spite of the global forecast of slower growth rates, Manitoba is expected to post steady growth over the next two years. The current forecast indicates a growth rate of 2.2 per cent in 2014 and 2.4 per cent in The labour market is expected to improve with the unemployment rate falling from 5.4 per cent in 2013 to five (5.0) per cent by Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba In 2013, Manitoba s capital investment increased by 5.8 per cent to a record $12.6 billion in Private investment increased 4.6 per cent while public capital investment increased 8.3 per cent. A number of major investment projects are currently underway, including downtown condominiums and the expansion of the Winnipeg Convention Centre. Budget 2014 reinforces the commitment to infrastructure by introducing a new five-year, $5.5 billion core infrastructure plan with new investments including: more than $3.7 billion to be invested in Manitoba roads, highways and bridges $320 million to be invested in flood protection around the province more than $1.5 billion to be invested in municipal roads, clean water and other municipal infrastructure These infrastructure investments will increase Manitoba s GDP growth and improve the labour market outlook for the province SECINC s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba s 2014 Custom Projection The performance of the economy, as measured by various economic and demographic indicators, is the main driver of the SECINC occupation model s workforce outlook. Economic growth drives labour demand, while population and age distribution have influence over labour supply. Projected growth rates from 2013 to 2020 for some of the key indicators utilized to produce Manitoba s custom projection are shown in Table 5. Manitoba Jobs and the Economy, Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS), Manitoba Finance, Manitoba Labour and Immigration and Manitoba Hydro assisted with the verification of macro-economic data utilized by the SECINC model to produce this labour market projection. Table 5: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2013 to 2020 Per cent Change (%) Real GDP ($Millions) Hourly Labour Income Real Hourly Labour Productivity Retail Sales Personal Income Real Per Capita Disposable Income

29 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status National Labour Market The Canadian labour market has been steady with employment increasing 1.2 per cent in 2012 and 1.3 per cent in Between 2012 and 2013 the total employment in Canada increased by 223,500. This includes year-over-year employment growth of 21,100 public sector positions and 202,400 private sector positions. The unemployment rate declined in 2013 to a five-year low of 7.1 per cent, but remains well above the pre-recession low of six (6.0) per cent (2007). The U.S. employment situation has improved, with three years of consecutive monthly gains in jobs. For the first time since the beginning of the recession in 2008, in January 2014, unemployment rate in Canada was higher than in the U.S. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.7 per cent in March 2014; 0.8 percentage points lower compared to March Over the same period, Canada s unemployment rate decreased 0.4 percentage points to 6.9 per cent Manitoba s Labour Market Manitoba s labour market is balanced, with employment and the number of new workers joining the labour force growing at about the same level. This has resulted in very little movement in the unemployment rate over the last five years. The rate averaged 5.4 per cent in 2013, the third lowest among provinces and below the national rate of 7.1 per cent. Since the Great Recession, Manitoba has had the second or third lowest unemployment rate in Canada, reflecting the stability of the labour market regardless of global conditions. Over the last five years, Manitoba s labour force expanded by 4.2 per cent or 27,200 persons while employment increased by 4.1 per cent. Between 2012 and 2013, Manitoba s labour force expanded by 0.5 per cent to 669,000 persons. Over the same period, employment increased by 3,100 persons (0.5 per cent) to 633,200 persons. This increase in employment was completely driven by the private sector, which gained 6,400 jobs and accounted for 75 per cent of all jobs in the province. In 2013, public sector employment decreased by 3,300 jobs. Compared to 2012, the labour-force participation in Manitoba decreased by 0.4 percentage points, from 69.1 per cent to 68.7 per cent. An average labour force participation rate of 68.7 per cent ranked Manitoba fourth among provinces, and above Canada s rate of 66.5 per cent, in While a number of industries saw sizeable employment gains in 2013, some of Manitoba s largest sectors experienced a softening in the number of persons employed. Manitoba s two largest industries by employment are health care and social assistance (14.9 per cent of employment), and retail and wholesale trade (14.5 per cent of employment). Between 2012 and 2013, employment in these industries declined by 0.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

30 Page 24 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Table 6: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2009 to Labour Force (000s) Employment (000s) Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) After four consecutive years of decline, in 2013, employment in agriculture increased by 14.6 per cent. The industries that saw the largest increase in employment over the last five years include construction and accommodation and food services, with increases of 18.3 per cent and 12.3 per cent respectively. Based on 2011 NOC occupation groups, sales and service occupations employed 25 per cent of all persons working in Manitoba. The occupation group employing the second highest number of people was business, finance and administrative occupations. Over the last five years, occupations related to natural and applied sciences saw the highest percentage increase in employment. 2.4 Population Over the past decade, Manitoba s demographic changes have been dramatic. As of Jan. 1, 2014, Manitoba s total population was estimated at 1,272,062. Manitoba s population grew by 14,111 persons (1.1 per cent) between January 2013 and January A large portion of Manitoba s estimated population gain in 2013 was the result of immigration. Although levels have dropped over the past few years, net international migration to Manitoba for 2013 was 11,393 individuals. Manitoba gained another 1,648 persons including non-permanent residents and returning emigrants. Some of the gain in the population through immigration is offset through interprovincial migration. Manitoba recorded an estimated net loss of 4,465 residents to other provinces. Overall, Manitoba recorded a net migration gain of 8,576 people over This net gain marked a decrease of 1,702 individuals from the net gain of 10,278 migrants over The remaining increase of 5,535 persons was due a natural increase in population (births and deaths).

31 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2014 to 2020 Page 25 Thousands Chart 13: Manitoba Population Estimated and Projected to Chart 13 shows annual population estimates and projection for Manitoba as of July 1 of each year. According to Manitoba Bureau of Statistics projections, in 2020 Manitoba s population will increase to 1,382,200. This represents a total gain of 117,200 people or 9.3 per cent over Between 2014 and 2020, Manitoba s population is projected to increase by an average of 17,000 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.3 per cent. This compares to a one (1.0) per cent average annual growth rate over the previous six years, from 2007 to The natural increase is expected to add 40,600 people to the population. Expected total net migration to Manitoba is 76,600 people over this period based on: an inflow of 97,000 international migrants an outflow of 6,000 people to other countries an addition of 8,100 non-permanent residents an outflow of 22,500 people to other provinces