RAPID ASSESSMENT AGRO-PASTORAL CONDITIONS TENENKOU DISTRICT MOPTI REGION, JANUARY 25-27, 2018

Transcription

1 RAPID ASSESSMENT AGRO-PASTORAL CONDITIONS TENENKOU DISTRICT MOPTI REGION, JANUARY 25-27, 2018 Catholic Relief Services (CRS) Niek de Goeij Country Representative CARE International Moustapha Gaye Chief of Party, Harande

2 Table of Contents Table of Contents Methodology Quantitative Results Demographics Household size Gender of respondent Status of respondent Marital Status Ethnicity Household status Distance to weekly market Distance to livestock market Primary livelihood activity Secondary livelihood activity Agriculture Area cultivated in a normal year Area cultivated in Change in area cultivated in Primary crop for meeting household food needs Agricultural production in Agricultural production in compared to in Constraints on agricultural production Foods needs covered by harvest in Off-season vegetable gardening Principle off-season vegetables Constraints on off-season vegetable production Animal Husbandry Animal husbandry practice Primary types of livestock fodder Price of oilcake Household supply of livestock fodder Duration of supply of fodder Water supply for livestock Livestock shelter type Distance to livestock shelter Stature of livestock Price of livestock Plans to sell livestock Timing of livestock sale Arrival of livestock Type of arriving livestock Transhumance Intended destination of seasonal livestock movement Timing of transhumance Reasons for not practicing transhumance Constraints on transhumance

3 2.4 Labor Migration Household members engage in labor migration Number of household members engaged in labor migration Food Security Number of meals eaten per day Household Food Consumption Score Food-based coping strategy use Household grain reserves Duration of grain reserve Household assets and resources Ability to meet household food needs Needs Household s greatest concern at present Preferred type of assistance Qualitative Results Security Agriculture Animal husbandry and transhumance Markets Coping strategies Humanitarian needs Conclusions Annexes Annex 1: List of communes and villages covered Annex 2: Harande beneficiaries Annex 3: Female vs. male-headed households, key statistics Annex 4: Calculation of number of households in need of assistance Maps Report Date: Feb. 9, 2018 Photo: A cattle crossing in the Niger River Delta region of Tenenkou District, Mopti Region (Source: Malinet.com) 3

4 Executive Summary In fall 2017, the Government of Mali and a variety of early warning systems predicted that zones across the Western Sahel and northern regions of Mali would see lower-than-average agricultural production, largely due to a net deficit of rainfall and low river and surface water levels. 1 Located in increasingly insecure southwestern Mopti Region, Tenenkou District was among the pockets identified as likely to see a rapid deterioration in food security in The Cadre Harmonise predicted the district would move into Phase 3 food insecurity in June-August 2018, 2 due to inconsistent rainfall during early and late phases of the growing season, a net rainfall deficit leading to limited growth of animal fodder, and low levels of the Niger River, on which a large portion of households depend for rice cultivation and gardening. 3 In January 2018, Catholic Relief Services (CRS) and CARE International, conducted a rapidassessment covering eight communes of Tenenkou District to assess current levels of food security, identify risks to agro-pastoral livelihoods and assess households level of preparedness for a shock to food production systems. The assessment comprised 520 household, and seven key informant interviews with local leaders and state technicians. The assessment, carried out approximately one month after the end of the traditional Malian cereal harvest period and three months prior to the beginning of the pastoral lean season, 4 confirmed that harvests in across the eight communes were substantially worse than in More than half of households in five of the eight communes said their harvest in was much worse than in , and more than 80 percent of households in six communes said their harvest was either much or slightly worse. Overall, three quarters of households percent reported that their harvest would meet their household food needs for three months or fewer, compared to 35 percent whose harvest met household food needs for three months or fewer in While more than 80 percent of households are presently consuming three meals per day, nearly half have borderline or poor food consumption in terms of amount and diversity, and 45 percent are engaged in a high-level of food-related coping strategy use, based on Food Consumption Score and Reduced Coping Strategy Index methodology, respectively. 5 Overall, as food reserves dwindle in the months ahead, with 83 percent of households saying they believe they will be able to meet their food needs for three months or fewer, the majority of households will face the choice of modifying their food consumption, liquidating assets or utilizing other coping strategies. At the time of the assessment, 40 percent of households were planning to sell livestock in the next three months to help meet their household food needs, and key informants confirmed that households would begin to restrict their food consumption, send household members to engage in wage labor outside the area, and liquidate livestock to cope with food production shortfalls. To limit the deterioration of food insecurity and protect productive assets, such as animals and seed stocks, this report recommends the provision of food assistance from the beginning of the pastoral lean season (April 2018) to the beginning of the rice harvest 1 USAID Food Assistance Fact Sheet, Mali, Dec. 19, Cadre Harmonisé d identification des zones à risque et des populations vulnérables au Sahel et en Afrique de l Ouest (CH2), (2017), 2 Cadre Harmonisé d identification des zones à risque et des populations vulnérables au Sahel et en Afrique de l Ouest (CH2), (2017), Fiche de Communication 3 FEWS Net, Mali: La saison selon les images, Oct. 30, Mali Perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire, Octobre 2017 à Mai WFP Coping Strategies Index, Field Methods Manual (2008, WFP VAM Technical Guidance Sheet; Food Consumption Analysis, WFP,

5 (January 2019) to at least 2,300 food insecure households in Tenenkou District (12.3 percent of the population), 6 supplemented by the distribution of animal fodder and cereal and rice seed prior to planting. Further assessments of the functionality and accessibility of local markets and of security dynamics in the region is recommended to determine whether in-kind, cash or vouchers would be most appropriate as a mechanism for distributing assistance, as well as further research of preferred assistance mechanisms of potential beneficiaries. 6 See Annex 4 5

6 Context In fall 2017, the Government of Mali and a variety of early warning systems predicted that zones across the Western Sahel and northern regions of the country would see lower-than-average agricultural production, largely due to a net deficit of rainfall and lower than average river and surface water levels. 7 Based on expected agricultural production, reduced pasture due to poor rainfall, and continuing insecurity in northern and central Mali, the regional early-warning system Cadre Harmonise predicted that the number of Malian households in Phase 3 (Crisis) food insecurity would increase from 1.5 percent of the population (290,740 individuals) in October-December 2017 to 4.2 percent (795,000) in June-August 2018, at the height of the agricultural lean season. 8 Tenenkou District in southwestern Mopti Region was among the pockets identified as likely to see a rapid deterioration in food security in Comprising both Niger River Delta rice-cattlefishing and millet-livestock livelihoods zones, 9 Tenenkou was predicted to enter Phase 3 food insecurity in June-August , with at least 1 in 5 households facing significant food consumption gaps, increasing rates of malnutrition and households relying on unsustainable coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets to meet minimum food needs. 11 Declining food security in Tenenkou has been largely attributed to inconsistent rainfall during early and late phases of the growing season, a net rainfall deficit leading to limited growth of animal fodder, and the low levels of the Niger River, on which a large portion of households depend for rice and off-season vegetable gardening. 12 Tenenkou also suffers from continuing insecurity, with 78 percent of the districts closed as of December 2017, and humanitarian organizations facing varying levels of accessibility to the district s ten communes. 13 In late October and early November 2017, during the middle stage of the main Malian cereal harvest season and prior to the beginning of the off-season rice and garden vegetable harvest season (January-May), 14 the INGO International Rescue Committee (IRC) completed a rapid assessment to evaluate the impact of low rainfall on the harvest and livelihoods more broadly in Tenenkou, covering five of the district s communes (Diaka, Diondori, Kareri, Guire, Tenenkou). The assessment, which included household-level interviews, focus-group discussions and key informant interviews, found that grain production was between 50 and 66 percent lower than in in the areas covered by the assessment, with households expecting their harvest to meet their food needs for 2.9 months in , relative to 5.4 months in USAID Food Assistance Fact Sheet, Mali, Dec. 19, 2017, FEWS Net, Mali: La saison selon les images, Oct. 30, Bulletin du Cluster Sécurite Alimentairé, Dec USAID, FEWS Net, Mali Livelihood Zones 10 Commissariat à la Securite Alimentaire, Système d alerte precoce, Note technique: Evaluation provisiore de la situation alimentaire du pays champagne agropastorale, FEWS Net, Food Assistance Outlook Brief, Dec FEWS Net, Mali: La saison selon les images, Oct. 30, Mali: Profil Humanitaire de la region de Mopti (Juin-Décembre 2017), OCHA 14 Mali Perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire, Octobre 2017 à Mai IRC, Evaluation des besions en sécurité alimentaire et des moyens d existance dans le cercle de Tenenkou, November

7 Figure 1: Early Warning System of the Malian government predicted that Tenenkou District (orange) would enter into Phase 3 food insecurity by the height of the lean season in In December, FEWS Net updated its outlook for Mali, predicting an early decline in food security in the Western Sahel region and in the Niger River delta region, noting Tenenkou and the neighboring districts of Mopti and Djenne, as being strongly affected by poor rice production due to low river levels. 16 In January 2018, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), which implements a USAID-funded rapid evaluation and response mechanism in central and northern Mali, and CARE International, which is engaged in a five-year USAID-funded project, Harande, to improve sustainable food, nutrition and income security in Mopti region, conducted a rapid assessment covering eight communes of Tenenkou District. The objective of the assessment was to verify current levels of food security, identify risks to agro-pastoral livelihoods and evaluate households level of preparedness for a shock to food production systems. The assessment was also intended to provide an understanding of how to best protect household assets and gains made within the context of Harande project activities. 1 Methodology Conducted during the period January 25-27, 2018, the assessment comprised 520 household interviews across 30 villages, and seven key informant interviews with local leaders and state technicians. The eight communes covered by the assessment were selected based on 16 FEWS Net, Mali Mise à jour de la sécurite alimentaire, December

8 accessibility to the assessment team, 17 while villages included in the sample were selected at random (See Annex 1 for a list of villages covered by the assessment). As the assessment team was not able to secure lists of households in each village to allow for random selection of respondents, assessment teams divided each village into quarters, based on a central reference point, and proceeded to select respondents using an every-third-household approach in villages and every fifth-household approach in towns (e.g. Tenenkou) moving outward from the reference point. Nineteen percent of assessment respondents identified as beneficiaries of Harande Project (see Annex 2). Key informants comprised four village leaders from three communes (Sougouble, Guire, Tenenkou), and four Government of Mali technicians, responsible for agriculture, agriculture and livestock, and social affairs, respectively. Eight assessment teams, consisting of three enumerators and one team leader (responsible for coordination and ensuring data quality), engaged in data collection, under the supervision of CRS and CARE assessment coordinators. Enumerators collected data using electronic tablets where feasible given security constraints (six communes), with paper surveys used in two communes, and data subsequently entered via tablets into the assessment data collection application, iformbuilder. The survey questionnaire was developed in French by CRS and CARE program staff members with experience in agriculture, humanitarian assistance and Monitoring- Evaluation-Accountability-and-Learning (MEAL), who trained assessment staff on the questionnaire prior to the start of data collection. Data collection was conducted in relevant local languages, with enumerators selected based on their familiarity with the target zone and primary languages spoken by respondents. Major limitations of the assessment were the lack of true random sampling at the level of household selection within villages, and a sample frame in which Diaka commune (191 respondents) is overrepresented and Diafarabe commune is underrepresented (13 respondents), relative to the mean number of respondents in the other six communes of 52. The overall sample size exceeds the sample size of 385 needed to ensure a 95 percent level of accuracy with a margin of error of 5 percent for Tenenkou District as a whole Quantitative Results The following section presents results of quantitative data collection, divided intro five sections demographics, agriculture, animal husbandry, food security, and needs with statistics presented at the commune level, and in aggregate for the assessment area (column entitled total ). 19 Key statistics disaggregated for male and female household heads are presented in Annex Demographics The section below presents key demographic statistics for the sample frame of 520 households Household size Across the 520 total households participating in the assessment, the mean household size was 11.4 individuals, with a standard deviation of 8.1 individuals, denoting substantial variation in 17 The communes of Toguéré Coumbe and Kareri were not covered by the assessment 18 Est. population 163,000 (République de Mali: Institut National de la Statistique 2009); Sample Size Caulcation: 19 Percentages were rounded in all tables, and consequently columns not all columns sum to 100 percent as presented 8

9 size within the sample. The highest mean was in Sougouble (14.1) with the lowest in Diondiori (7.2). Household was defined as individuals who share meals together daily or on a near-daily basis, relying on a common source or set of food sources. Household size (N = 520) Statistic Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Mean Standard Div Gender of respondent Among the 520 respondents, 101 (19 percent) were women and 419 (81 percent) were men, with notable diversity in the gender balance of respondents by commune. Forty-three percent of respondents in Tenenkou commune and 24 percent of respondents in Sougouble commune were women, respectively, while, in the communes of Diafarabe, Diondiori and, 2 percent or fewer of respondents were women. Gender of respondent (N = 520) Gender Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Women 0% 22% 2% 15% 9% 24% 43% 0% 19% Men 100% 78% 98% 85% 91% 76% 57% 100% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Status of respondent Among the sample, 92 percent of respondents were household heads. Household position of respondent (N = 520) Position Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo HH head 100% 93% 98% 98% 94% 86% 81% 96% 92% Not HH head 0% 7% 2% 2% 6% 14% 19% 4% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Marital Status Just over half of respondents (53 percent) were married and part of a monogamous household unit, with 37 percent married and part of polygamous household unit. Eleven percent of respondents were single, separated from a partner, or widowed. Marital status of respondent (N = 520) Status Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Single 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% Married, monogamous 38% 46% 80% 52% 69% 47% 40% 82% 53% Married, polygamous 62% 46% 13% 34% 24% 43% 39% 18% 37% Separated 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% Widow(er) 0% 7% 4% 15% 6% 10% 17% 0% 9% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 9

10 2.1.5 Ethnicity Individuals belonging to the Peuhl ethnic group constituted the largest group of respondents (62 percent), with members of the Bozo ethnic group accounting for 23 percent of the sample. In four communes, more than 80 percent of respondents identified as Peulh, while in Diafarabe a majority of respondents (69 percent) identified as Bozo. Ethnicity of household head (N = 520) Ethnicity Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Bambara 8% 5% 4% 2% 2% 0% 11% 4% 4% Bella 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% Bozo 69% 37% 20% 10% 0% 2% 9% 54% 23% Peulh 23% 45% 70% 89% 89% 94% 55% 39% 62% Sarakole 0% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 4% 4% 3% Somono 0% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Sonrai 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 1% Tamachek 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Other 0% 3% 0% 0% 7% 4% 8% 0% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Household status Local residents accounted for 94 percent of the assessment sample, with four percent of respondents identifying as internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of IDPs was highest in Tenenkou commune (11 percent), with an additional three percent of respondents identifying as repatriates. Status of household (N = 520) Status Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Resident 100% 94% 98% 100% 94% 98% 83% 100% 94% Displaced 0% 5% 0% 0% 4% 2% 11% 0% 4% Repatriated 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% Returnee 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Distance to weekly market Seventy percent of respondents said that the nearest weekly market to their place of residence is at a distance of 10 km or less, with a large percentage of households in the communes of (82 percent) and Diaka (56 percent) needing to travel km to reach a weekly market. Distance to weekly market (N = 520) Distance Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0-5 km 100% 22% 76% 15% 20% 88% 87% 7% 43% 5-10 km 0% 21% 22% 61% 67% 12% 5% 11% 27% km 0% 50% 2% 24% 9% 0% 1% 7% 23% km 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 0% 5% 75% 7% 40+ km 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 10

11 2.1.8 Distance to livestock market Similarly, 67 percent of respondent households live at a distance of 10 km or less from a market where animals are sold, with 33 percent needing to travel 11 km or more (Diaka, 54 percent;, 86 percent). Distance to nearest livestock market (N = 520) Distance Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0-5 km 100% 26% 78% 15% 17% 71% 81% 7% 41% 5-10 km 0% 21% 22% 60% 65% 29% 4% 7% 27% km 0% 46% 0% 23% 15% 0% 5% 7% 22% km 0% 8% 0% 3% 2% 0% 7% 79% 9% 40+ km 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Primary livelihood activity Across the eight communes, agriculture was the principle livelihood activity for 79 percent of respondent households. Small commerce was the second most common primary livelihood activity (5 percent), followed by skilled labor (4 percent) and herding (4 percent). In Diafarabe, 31 percent of respondents said seasonal work was their primary livelihood activity, while in Tenenkou 15 percent of respondents listed small commerce as their primary livelihoods activity, 13 percent listed skilled labor, and 13 percent listed livestock sales. Primary livelihoods activity (N = 520) Activity Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Agriculture 54% 87% 76% 100% 81% 82% 40% 93% 79% Small commerce 8% 3% 2% 0% 4% 4% 15% 7% 5% Skilled labor 8% 3% 7% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 4% Herding 0% 2% 9% 0% 6% 6% 7% 0% 4% Livestock sales 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% 2% 13% 0% 3% Seasonal work 31% 4% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 3% Salaried work 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% Agric. labor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% None 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 8% 0% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Secondary livelihood activity The most common secondary livelihood activity among respondents were small commerce (20 percent) and agriculture (20 percent), with 27 percent of respondents saying that their household did not engage in a secondary livelihoods activity. Secondary livelihood activity (N = 520) Activity Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Small commerce 23% 20% 39% 11% 9% 12% 27% 29% 20% Agriculture 23% 18% 24% 35% 9% 24% 13% 18% 20% Skilled labor 15% 14% 9% 2% 7% 4% 8% 4% 9% Seasonal work 23% 14% 7% 10% 2% 2% 5% 4% 9% Livestock sale 0% 5% 11% 2% 11% 12% 12% 7% 7% Herder 0% 4% 7% 0% 11% 16% 5% 0% 6% 11

12 Agric. labor 0% 3% 2% 0% 4% 2% 4% 4% 3% None 15% 23% 2% 40% 46% 29% 25% 36% 27% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2.2 Agriculture This section describes the agricultural characteristics of households participating in the assessment, and agricultural outcomes in and Area cultivated in a normal year In , 48 percent of respondent households cultivated fewer than 3 hectares of land, with 82 percent cultivating 6 or fewer hectares. The communes with the largest percentage of households cultivating more than 6 hectares were Ardo (37 percent) and Sougouble (29 percent). Hectares cultivated by the household in a normal year (N = 520) Hectares Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0 54% 16% 35% 5% 22% 27% 45% 54% 25% % 26% 35% 18% 24% 8% 20% 18% 23% 3-4 0% 23% 13% 24% 17% 20% 23% 4% 20% 5-6 0% 16% 13% 16% 11% 16% 5% 21% 14% 6+ 0% 19% 4% 37% 26% 29% 7% 4% 18% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Area cultivated in In , 54 percent of households cultivated 2 hectares or less, with the percentage of households not cultivating land rising by three percentage points. More than 50 percent of households in Diafarabe (62 percent), Tenenkou (52 percent) and did not cultivate land in The share of household cultivating more than 6 hectares was 24 percent relative to 32 percent in a normal year. hectares cultivated in (N = 520) Hectares Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0 62% 23% 24% 18% 19% 22% 52% 50% 28% % 25% 48% 23% 33% 18% 21% 18% 26% 3-4 8% 25% 22% 21% 22% 14% 16% 21% 21% 5-6 0% 11% 2% 13% 6% 18% 7% 7% 9% 6+ 0% 17% 4% 26% 20% 29% 4% 4% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Change in area cultivated in Relative to a normal year, 66 percent of households cultivated the same number of hectares in , while 24 percent cultivated fewer, and 11 percent cultivated more. Guire (24 percent) and Diondiori (21 percent) had the highest percentage of households who reduced the number of hectares they cultivated compared to normal by 2 hectares or more. 12

13 Change in hectares cultivated, vs. normal year (N = 520) Change Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo - 5 HA or more 0% 4% 4% 15% 11% 2% 1% 0% 5% HA 8% 13% 17% 3% 13% 12% 13% 14% 12% - 1 HA 0% 7% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 0% 7% No change 85% 67% 41% 73% 52% 67% 76% 75% 66% + 1 HA 8% 3% 13% 0% 4% 2% 1% 7% 4% HA 0% 4% 15% 0% 13% 2% 1% 4% 5% + 5 HA or more 0% 2% 0% 2% 2% 8% 0% 0% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Primary crop for meeting household food needs Rice was named as the most important crop for meeting household food needs by 88 percent of households, followed by millet (2 percent). Primary crop for meeting household food needs (N = 520) Crop type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Rice 69% 94% 96% 100% 94% 92% 56% 89% 88% Millet 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 9% 4% 2% Vegetables 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 4% 1% Beans 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Maize 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 31% 5% 0% 0% 2% 8% 33% 0% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agricultural production in In , 30 percent of respondent households produced a harvest that met their household food needs for seven months or more, and 66 percent of households produced enough to meet their food needs for four months or more. Notably, 59 percent of households in Guire, 50 percent of households in Tenenkou and 48 percent of households in Diondiori had a harvest that met household food needs for 3 months or fewer. Months of household food needs covered by harvest in (N = 520) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo <1 month 31% 9% 7% 10% 7% 12% 33% 0% 13% 1-3 months 8% 16% 41% 16% 52% 18% 17% 14% 22% 4-6 months 31% 39% 28% 37% 26% 43% 36% 25% 36% 7-9 months 15% 26% 20% 23% 13% 10% 12% 46% 21% months 8% 8% 4% 8% 2% 12% 1% 14% 7% 12+ months 8% 2% 0% 6% 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agricultural production in compared to in Relative to , 51 percent of all households said their harvest was much worse in , with a high of 67 percent of respondent households in Sougouble reporting their harvest was much worse. Eighty-one percent of respondent households said their harvest was either much worse or slightly worse in as compared to Diafarabe was a notable exception to the trend of worse agricultural production, with 54 percent of respondents saying they had a slightly better harvest than the previous year. 13

14 Household assessment of harvest in relative to harvest in (N = 520) Production Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Much worse 15% 56% 57% 48% 54% 67% 25% 57% 51% Slightly worse 15% 29% 26% 32% 28% 27% 37% 39% 30% Same 15% 10% 9% 13% 11% 2% 23% 0% 11% Slightly better 54% 4% 4% 6% 4% 4% 13% 4% 7% Much better 0% 1% 4% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Constraints on agricultural production The vast majority of respondents (83 percent) identified insufficient rainfall as the primary constraint affecting agricultural production in , followed by lack of inputs (6 percent). In Diondiori, 15 percent of respondents noted that too much rainfall constituted the major constraint with regard to agricultural production. Major constraints on agricultural production in (N = 515) 20 Constraint Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Lack of rain 85% 85% 76% 97% 65% 88% 76% 86% 83% Lack of inputs 0% 6% 7% 0% 9% 8% 8% 4% 6% Surface water 0% 5% 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 0% 3% Too much rain 0% 1% 15% 3% 2% 2% 0% 7% 3% Predators 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% Plant illness 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 4% 1% Didn't cultivate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 1% Not sure 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 2% 4% 0% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Foods needs covered by harvest in In terms of meeting household food needs, 7 percent of households said their harvest in would meet their household s needs for seven months or more, and 25 percent said their harvest would meet food needs for four months or more. Diafarabe commune had the highest percentage of respondent households whose harvest will cover four or more months of food needs (46 percent), followed by (40 percent). Diondioro (18 percent) and Sougouble (20 percent) had the lowest percentage of respondent households whose yield will cover more than four months of food needs. Months of household food needs covered by harvest in (N = 520) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo <1 month 38% 27% 22% 19% 20% 47% 35% 18% 28% 1-3 months 15% 47% 61% 56% 54% 33% 39% 43% 47% 4-6 months 15% 19% 9% 19% 19% 18% 17% 29% 18% 7-9 months 15% 5% 7% 2% 7% 2% 9% 11% 6% months 8% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 12+ months 8% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20 N = 515, some respondents did not answer, and one respondent gave two answers 14

15 2.2.9 Off-season vegetable gardening Thirty percent of respondents indicate that they practice off-season vegetable gardening, with garden crops traditionally harvested between January and mid-may. 21 Rates of gardening practice ranged from 4 percent in and 8 percent in Diafarabe to 45 percent in Sougouble and 40 percent in Diaka. Household practices off-season vegetable gardening (N = 520) Practices Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 8% 40% 13% 27% 35% 45% 19% 4% 30% No 92% 60% 87% 73% 65% 55% 81% 96% 70% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Principle off-season vegetables The primary off-season vegetable crop among respondent households is tomatoes (75 percent), followed by onions (20 percent) and cabbage (2 percent). Principle off-season vegetable grown by the household (N = 157) Vegetable type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Tomatoes 0% 82% 0% 100% 63% 74% 64% 0% 75% Onions 0% 16% 67% 0% 32% 26% 21% 100% 20% Cabbage 100% 1% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Cereals 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 1% Eggplant 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 7% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Constraints on off-season vegetable production Respondent households identified lack of precipitation and surface water (38 percent) and lack of money to purchase inputs as the primary constraints in with regard to engaging in off-season vegetable gardening. Principle constraint on off-season vegetable production (N = 520) Constraint Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Lack of water 15% 39% 39% 63% 13% 47% 35% 32% 38% Lack of inputs 38% 35% 26% 32% 41% 41% 24% 14% 33% Lack of land 31% 13% 15% 2% 19% 0% 21% 46% 15% Insecurity 15% 11% 17% 2% 24% 8% 15% 7% 12% Seed quality 0% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 0% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2.3 Animal Husbandry The section below presents key statistics related to animal husbandry and herding practices. For the purposes of the assessment cows, oxen, camels, horses, donkeys, sheep, goats and pigs were considered large animals, and fowl were considered small animals and not considered when asking questions about animal husbandry. 21 FEWS Net, Mali Perspective sur la sécurité alimentaire, Octobre 2017 à Mai

16 2.3.1 Animal husbandry practice Nearly three-quarters of the 520 respondent households (73 percent) practice a form of animal husbandry; however, notable variation was found across communes. Guire had the lowest rate of animal husbandry practice at 58 percent, with a high of 89 percent in. Animal fattening is the most common form of animal husbandry (28 percent), followed by semiintensive husbandry (16 percent) and intensive husbandry (14 percent). The highest rates of intensive animal husbandry were found in Guire (24 percent) and Tenenkou (23 percent). Transhumance was most commonly practiced in Guire (17 percent) and Diafarabe (15 percent). Type of animal husbandry practiced by the household (N = 520) Type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Fattening 31% 16% 43% 27% 19% 33% 35% 75% 28% Semi-intensive 0% 25% 17% 11% 13% 18% 4% 7% 16% Intensive 0% 15% 11% 5% 24% 8% 23% 7% 14% Transhumance 15% 4% 9% 11% 17% 10% 11% 0% 8% Traction 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 8% 1% 0% 2% Other 31% 7% 2% 3% 11% 2% 7% 0% 5% None 23% 33% 17% 42% 17% 22% 20% 11% 27% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Primary types of livestock fodder Oilcakes are the most primary source of fodder among respondent households (45 percent), with 26 percent primarily using an agricultural product (e.g. maize grains) or agricultural biproduct (e.g. bean leaves, peanut leaves, cereal plant stalks). Primary type of animal fodder (N = 382) Fodder type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Oilcake 30% 38% 53% 56% 38% 60% 50% 44% 45% Cereal stalks 10% 18% 8% 19% 7% 3% 8% 36% 14% Wild forage 10% 13% 24% 8% 20% 15% 8% 8% 13% Millet grain 10% 10% 0% 3% 4% 15% 20% 0% 9% Peanut leaves 0% 1% 11% 3% 2% 0% 0% 4% 2% Bean leaves 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% Rock salt 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Other 10% 16% 3% 0% 27% 5% 8% 4% 11% No response 30% 4% 0% 6% 2% 3% 5% 0% 4% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Price of oilcake Half of all respondent households consider the price of oilcake to be elevated relative to the same period in 2017, with 37 percent saying the price is similar. In three communes, Diafarabe (77 percent), Diondior (76 percent), and Guire (74 percent) approximately three-quarters of respondents said prices were elevated relative to last year. 16

17 Price of oilcake compared to last year at this time (N = 382) Price Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo High 77% 45% 76% 23% 74% 39% 55% 57% 50% Stable 23% 45% 20% 60% 22% 27% 29% 43% 37% Low 0% 11% 4% 18% 4% 33% 16% 0% 13% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Household supply of livestock fodder Among the 382 households who practice animal husbandry, 44 percent said they currently have a stock of fodder. The proportion of households with a stock of fodder ranged from threequarters of respondents in Diafarabe with a stock of fodder to 18 percent of households with a stock of fodder in Oura Ardo. Household has a stock of fodder for livestock (N = 382) Fodder stock Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 75% 45% 55% 18% 36% 48% 52% 55% 44% No 25% 55% 45% 82% 64% 52% 48% 45% 56% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Duration of supply of fodder Of the 382 respondent households who practice animal husbandry, 85 percent said they have a stock of fodder that will either last less than a month (57 percent) or will last 1-3 months (27 percent). Limited stock of fodder is particularly notable in Ardo, where 72 percent of households practicing animal husbandry said they have a stock that will last less than one month. Expected duration of household stock of fodder for animals (N = 382) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo <1 month 60% 56% 47% 72% 67% 50% 55% 48% 57% 1-3 months 0% 30% 42% 19% 29% 23% 22% 44% 28% 4-6 months 30% 10% 5% 8% 2% 23% 15% 8% 11% 7-9 months 10% 2% 3% 0% 0% 3% 5% 0% 2% months 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 3% 2% 0% 1% 12+ months 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Water supply for livestock Household engaged in animal husbandry most frequently use wells to provide water for their livestock (41 percent), with river water being the second most common source of water. Riverwater use was highest in Diondiori (74 percent) and (68 percent). An additional 15 percent of households rely on marshes in providing water for their animals. Type of water source utilized for livestock (N = 382) Water source Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Pastoral wells 25% 45% 10% 73% 9% 57% 50% 14% 41% River 50% 31% 74% 0% 87% 18% 20% 68% 38% Marshes 0% 15% 14% 25% 4% 16% 13% 18% 15% Water point 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% 7% 5% 0% 3% 17

18 Other 25% 5% 0% 2% 0% 2% 12% 0% 4% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Livestock shelter type Among respondent households practicing animal husbandry, more than three-quarters utilize permanent structures for keeping animals. is an exception, with 91 percent of respondents saying they utilize temporary structures. Type of livestock shelter utilized (N = 382) Structure Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Permanent 100% 80% 100% 93% 58% 89% 72% 9% 77% Temporary 0% 20% 0% 7% 42% 11% 28% 91% 23% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Distance to livestock shelter Nearly all households with livestock use a structure to shelter them within 10 km of the household s place of dwelling, with 83 percent sheltering animals within 0-5 km of their dwelling, and an additional 12 percent sheltering animals in a structure located at a distance of 5-10 km. Distance to livestock shelter (N = 382) Distance Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0-5 km 100% 80% 95% 75% 87% 86% 78% 95% 83% 5-10 km 0% 14% 2% 23% 4% 11% 15% 5% 12% km 0% 3% 2% 0% 4% 0% 2% 0% 2% km 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 40+ km 0% 2% 0% 2% 4% 0% 3% 0% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Stature of livestock Overall, 84 percent of respondent households engaged in livestock husbandry reported that their animals are of good or medium stature at this point in the season. The highest percentage of households reporting their animals are of poor stature was Guire (24 percent), and Ardo (20 percent). Stature of livestock (N = 382) Stature Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Good 75% 27% 38% 30% 22% 41% 23% 9% 28% Average 25% 55% 50% 50% 53% 52% 67% 77% 56% Poor 0% 18% 12% 20% 24% 7% 10% 14% 16% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Price of livestock Households were relatively divided in their assessment of the price of livestock this year relative to last year during the same period, with 35 percent saying prices are high, 37 percent saying they are similar and 28 percent saying they are lower. Prices appear to be highest in Diafarabe commune (69 percent, elevated prices), and lowest in Diondiori (56 percent stable, 39 percent lower than last year). 18

19 Price of livestock at present relative to during the same period (N = 520) Prices Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo High 69% 32% 54% 5% 57% 29% 44% 25% 35% Stable 31% 37% 17% 56% 35% 31% 39% 39% 37% Low 0% 31% 28% 39% 7% 39% 17% 36% 28% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Plans to sell livestock Among the 389 households who practice animal husbandry, 58 percent said they plan to sell animals in the coming months to meet their household food needs, with substantial variation across communes. Nearly three-quarters of respondents in Tenenkou commune said they planned to sell animals, while just 18 percent in and 25 percent in Diafarabe planned to sell animals in the coming months to meet household food needs. Household plans to sell livestock in the coming months to help meet household needs (N = 382) Plan to sell Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 25% 54% 81% 50% 60% 57% 72% 18% 58% No 75% 46% 19% 50% 40% 43% 28% 82% 42% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Timing of livestock sale While 43 percent of respondent households said they do not plan to sell animals in the coming months, 23 percent anticipate selling animals within the next two months, prior to the traditional start of the pastoral lean season. An additional 29 percent plan to sell animals in 3-4 months. Thirty-six percent of respondent households that practice animal husbandry in Ouire Guire anticipated selling animals in the next two months, and 48 percent plan to sell animals within three months. Length of time after which household plans to sell livestock (N = 382) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 1 month 0% 11% 5% 0% 18% 14% 10% 5% 10% 2 months 0% 13% 14% 11% 18% 14% 15% 0% 13% 3 months 0% 15% 19% 11% 11% 20% 28% 9% 17% 4 months 0% 13% 17% 18% 9% 7% 10% 5% 12% 5+ months 25% 2% 26% 5% 2% 0% 8% 0% 6% Other 75% 45% 19% 55% 42% 45% 28% 82% 43% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Arrival of livestock Among respondent households practicing animal husbandry, less than a quarter said they had seen or heard of animals crossing the border from Mauritania into Mali, although the percentage varied substantially across communes. Three-quarters of respondents in Diafarabe and nearly half of respondents in Diondiori said they had seen or heard about arriving animals, while only 13 percent of those in Diaka and 9 percent in said animals were arriving from Mauritania. 19

20 Respondent has heard that animals are crossing the border from Mauritania into Mali (N = 382) Aware Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 75% 13% 48% 25% 13% 30% 25% 9% 22% No 25% 87% 52% 75% 87% 70% 75% 91% 78% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Type of arriving livestock Respondents who reported seeing or hearing about animals arriving from Mauritania largely reported the presence of cattle. Type of animals believed to be arriving from Mauritania (N = 382) Animal type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Cattle 31% 9% 48% 19% 13% 25% 19% 7% 18% Camels 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% Goats 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Sheep 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% Not aware 69% 87% 50% 81% 85% 75% 76% 93% 79% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Transhumance Across all respondent households, just 8 percent said they practice transhumance, with the largest percentage of those practicing being in Diondiori (35 percent) and Sougouble (14 percent). Household practices the transhumance (N = 520) Practices Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 0% 3% 35% 2% 4% 14% 9% 4% 8% No 100% 97% 65% 98% 96% 86% 91% 96% 92% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Intended destination of seasonal livestock movement Among the 41 respondents planning to practice transhumance, 24 percent said they would seek pasture locally, with an additional 10 percent remaining within the commune. Ten percent said they would seek pasture within the district outside of their commune, and 24 percent said they would seek pasture elsewhere within the region. A final 32 percent said they would travel outside the region. Destination of seasonal migration with livestock (N = 41) Destination Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Local - 0% 50% 100% 0% 0% 11% 0% 24% Commune - 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 33% 0% 10% District - 20% 13% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 10% Region - 80% 19% 0% 50% 0% 11% 100% 24% Outside region - 0% 0% 0% 0% 71% 33% 0% 20% Outside Mali - 0% 19% 0% 50% 0% 11% 0% 12% - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20

21 Timing of transhumance Of the 41 respondents planning to engage in the transhumance this year, more than three quarters percent said they expect the movement of animals to begin early (51 percent) or abnormally early (16 percent). Timing of transhumance (N = 41) Timing Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Normal - 60% 7% 0% 50% 29% 57% 100% 32% Early - 40% 64% 100% 50% 57% 29% 0% 51% Very early - 0% 29% 0% 0% 14% 14% 0% 16% - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Reasons for not practicing transhumance Among those who practice animal husbandry, three percent said they are not practicing the transhumance due to insecurity, while the remaining 97 percent said they do not practice transhumance. Reason for not practicing seasonal migration with livestock (N = 382) Reason Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Insecurity 25% 1% 5% 2% 7% 0% 5% 0% 3% Doesn t practice 75% 99% 95% 98% 93% 100% 95% 100% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Constraints on transhumance Those who do plan to engage in seasonal migration with animals reported that the major constraints affecting the activity this year are insecurity (43 percent) and insufficiency of fodder (41 percent). Constraints on seasonal migration with livestock (N = 41) Constraint Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Insecurity - 20% 36% 0% 50% 71% 57% 0% 43% Lack of forage - 40% 64% 0% 50% 29% 0% 100% 41% Lack of water - 40% 0% 100% 0% 0% 43% 0% 16% - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2.4 Labor Migration Household members engage in labor migration This section presents key statistics related to labor migration, which traditionally takes place in Mali in the period October-January, in connection with the primary Malian agricultural harvest season, when the demand for agricultural labor is high FEWS Net, Mali Perspective sur la sécurité alimentaire, Octobre 2017 à Mai

22 A member of the household has worked and lived outside the village in the last 12 months (N = 520) Labor migrant(s) Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 62% 42% 22% 37% 54% 37% 45% 29% 41% No 38% 58% 78% 63% 46% 63% 55% 71% 59% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of household members engaged in labor migration Overall, more than 40 percent of respondent households reported that at least one member worked and lived outside their village in the last 12 months, with 20 percent of households reporting one member working and living outside their village, and 20 percent reporting more than one member working and living outside their village. Number of household members working and living outside the village in the last 12 months (N = 520) Number Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 0 38% 58% 78% 63% 48% 61% 55% 75% 59% 1 15% 19% 13% 21% 22% 22% 25% 18% 20% 2 8% 12% 7% 10% 15% 12% 11% 0% 11% 3 0% 6% 0% 2% 6% 2% 7% 7% 4% 4 0% 4% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 2% 5 8% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 6+ 31% 2% 2% 0% 7% 2% 0% 0% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% With regard to the number of household members engaging in labor migration during the previous 12 months, 20 percent of households had a single member working and living outside the village, 11 percent had two members living and working outside the village, and 10 percent had three or more members working and living outside the village. 2.5 Food Security This section presents key statistics related to the current level of food security among the households assessed, and assets that play an important role in ensuring food security Number of meals eaten per day At present, more than 80 percent of respondent households are consuming three meals per day, with 18 percent consuming two meals per day. The highest rates of households reporting consuming two meals or fewer per day were in Guire (35 percent) and (32 percent). Number of meals eaten per day (N = 520) Meals /day Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo 3 meals/day 100% 82% 83% 90% 65% 86% 84% 68% 82% 2 meals/day 0% 18% 15% 10% 35% 14% 13% 32% 18% 1 meal/day 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 22

23 2.5.2 Household Food Consumption Score With regard to food consumption, 61 percent of households consumed a diet with an acceptable combination of quantity and diversity during the seven days prior to the assessment, based on the Food Consumption Score (FCS) methodology with standard weighting. 23 Twentythree percent of households had FCS scores denoting borderline consumption, and 16 percent had poor consumption. had the highest rate of households with poor consumption in the previous 7 days, at 54 percent, followed by Sougouble (18 percent). In Diafarabe commune, 77 percent of households had either borderline consumption (62 percent) or poor consumption (15 percent). Household food consumption score (N = 520) Consumption Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Acceptable 23% 64% 61% 50% 69% 65% 75% 25% 61% Borderline 62% 18% 30% 47% 15% 18% 13% 21% 23% Poor 15% 17% 9% 3% 17% 18% 12% 54% 16% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Food-based coping strategy use Based on the Reduced Coping Strategy Index (RCSI), 24 which measures food-related coping during the previous seven days based on the frequency of five behaviors associated with food insecurity, percent of respondent households are utilizing a high degree of food-related coping strategies, and 14 percent are using a moderate degree of coping strategies. The highest rates of elevated coping strategy utilization were found in Ardo (61 percent), Guire (54 percent) and Diafarabe (54 percent). Seventy-seven percent of respondent households in Diafarbe, 75 percent of households in, and 71 percent of households in Ardo were engaged in a moderate or high degree of food-related coping-strategy use. Household Reduced Coping Strategy Index Score (N = 520) Degree of coping Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo High 54% 45% 46% 61% 54% 33% 32% 43% 45% Moderate 23% 14% 11% 10% 11% 20% 13% 32% 14% Low 23% 41% 43% 29% 35% 47% 55% 25% 41% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Household grain reserves Fewer than two-thirds of respondent households said they currently have a grain reserve. The largest percentage of households saying they have a reserve was in (82 percent) and the lowest percentages were in Sougouble (31 percent) and Diafarabe (38 percent). Household has grain reserve (N = 520) Has reserve Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 38% 60% 63% 48% 76% 31% 52% 82% 57% No 62% 40% 37% 52% 24% 69% 48% 18% 43% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 23 WFP VAM Technical Guidance Sheet; Food Consumption Analysis, WFP, 2008; Poor (0-28 points), Borderline ( ), Acceptable (35+). 24 WFP Coping Strategies Index, Field Methods Manual (2008) 25 WFP Coping Strategies Index, Field Methods Manual (2008); Low level of coping (0-3 points), Moderate level of coping (4-9), High level of coping (10+). 23

24 2.5.5 Duration of grain reserve Across the 520 respondent households, 84 percent said they had a grain reserve that would last three months or fewer (41 percent) or had no grain reserve (43 percent). In five communes (Diaka, Diondoro, Adro, Guire and Sougouble) 80 percent or more of all households had a grain reserve of three months or fewer. Expected duration of grain reserve (N = 520) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo <1 month 62% 40% 37% 52% 24% 69% 48% 18% 43% 1-3 months 0% 49% 50% 39% 59% 16% 24% 46% 41% 4-6 months 15% 12% 7% 8% 9% 12% 21% 29% 13% 7-9 months 15% 0% 7% 2% 6% 0% 5% 7% 3% months 8% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 1% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Household assets and resources With regard to other household assets or resources to which households have access that could be utilized to meet food needs, 86 percent of households say they have agricultural assets and 95 percent have large animals that could be sold. Thirty-six percent of household said they are able to borrow money and do not currently have significant debt, 31 percent said they receive remittances, and 22 percent said they receive support from an NGO. Other resources that could be sold or accessed (N = 520) Resource Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Large livestock 85% 96% 96% 92% 96% 96% 97% 86% 95% Agricultural assets 69% 87% 100% 90% 94% 90% 60% 100% 86% HH items (e.g. radio) 23% 26% 41% 0% 26% 22% 29% 18% 24% HH able to borrow 22% 34% 52% 22% 39% 40% 42% 35% 36% HH receives remittances 23% 28% 20% 29% 46% 49% 29% 29% 31% HH receives NGO support 31% 17% 20% 42% 20% 22% 23% 18% 22% Ability to meet household food needs Given the food and non-food resources currently at their disposal, 18 percent of household said they will be able to meet their household food needs for less than a month, and 43 percent said they will be able to meet food needs for 1-3 months. More than one-in-five households in Guire (30 percent), Sougouble (24 percent), Diafarabe (23 percent) and Diaka (21 percent) said they would be able to meet their food needs for less than one month. Approximately threequarters of households in Diondiori (76 percent) and in Guire (74 percent) said they would be able to meet their food needs for three months or fewer. 24

25 Household expects to be able to meet food needs (N = 520) Period Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo <1 month 23% 21% 15% 10% 30% 24% 8% 7% 18% 1-3 months 31% 42% 61% 40% 44% 45% 31% 50% 43% 4-6 months 15% 22% 9% 31% 11% 14% 27% 32% 21% 7-9 months 15% 6% 11% 2% 13% 12% 23% 11% 10% months 15% 8% 4% 18% 2% 6% 11% 0% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2.6 Needs This section presents the expressed needs of respondent households, and the type of assistance that households would find most relevant Household s greatest concern at present Across respondent households, 89 percent said meeting their household s food needs is their greatest concern at the moment, ranging from 70 percent of households in Diondiori saying food is their greatest concern to 96 percent in and 100 percent in Ardo saying food is their greatest concern. The health of household members was the second most common concern cited, at 3 percent, with a high of 15 percent of respondent households mentioning the health of household members as their greatest concern in Diafarabe. The price of food was noted by 2 percent of households, and 2 percent of households said insecurity was their greatest concern at present, with a high of 11 percent in Diondiori. Households greatest concern at present (N = 520) Concern Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Food for HH 85% 92% 70% 100% 93% 92% 77% 96% 89% HH health 15% 4% 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% 0% 3% Price of food 0% 1% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% Animal feed 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 2% Insecurity 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% Animal safety 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% Animal health 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Lack of water 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% 4% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Preferred type of assistance More than 80 percent of respondent household said food assistance would be the most relevant type of support in the coming comings to ensure they are able to meet their household s needs. Eleven percent of households said cash transfers would be the most relevant type of assistance, and four percent said animal feed would be the most relevant form of assistance for their household. 25

26 The assistance that would help the household best meet its needs in the coming months (N = 520) Assistance type Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Food assistance 92% 83% 76% 92% 74% 82% 81% 82% 82% Cash transfer 8% 12% 11% 8% 17% 6% 11% 14% 11% Animal feed 0% 3% 9% 0% 4% 12% 5% 0% 4% Seeds 0% 2% 4% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 2% Water-points 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 3 Qualitative Results This section presents key qualitative results, providing additional insight with regard to quantitative results presented in the previous section. Key informants are not identified, out of respect for their safety, given the security dynamic in the assessment zone Security Key informants, including civil servants and village heads, and assessment team members commented on the impact of insecurity on the area targeted by the assessment. In discussing with village leaders, one assessment team leader was informed that the village is under the control of a radical group active in the zone. In another case, the assessment team was required to skip a village randomly selected in their commune due to security risks there. A variety of key informants noted that insecurity has lead to a decline in food and other essential products coming into the area, and prevented households from taking their animals to areas of better pasture. One assessment team noted that respondents in a particular village were hesitant to discuss the security situation. This insecurity impacts our daily activities, one village leader explained. All the communes (in Tenenkou District) are affected in the same manner. We are afraid of the armed groups. We only want to have enough to eat Agriculture Key informants confirmed that rice is the major crop cultivated in the region, with rice both consumed and sold to purchase other food items. While assessment teams found pockets of average agricultural production, overall, key informants reported mediocre to very poor harvests, noting major losses with regard to rice production due to insufficient access to water. Key informants also noted that birds had destroyed substantial portions of harvests in certain villages. One key informant said Everyone is concerned by this difficulty, because there has been a lack of rain this year, and we are obliged to adapt as well to insecurity that is growing, and the lack of support by NGOs and the government. A key informant who works for the government agricultural service confirmed that agricultural extension agents have been limited in their ability to access particular areas and support farmers during key phases of the agricultural season, due to insecurity Animal husbandry and transhumance Key informants explained that Tenenkou district, although located close to the Mauritania border is not a destination for animals crossing into Mali, with animals generally stopping to pasture in Niono District of Segou region before reaching Tenenkou. Households in Tenenkou also traditionally move animals towards pasture areas in Niono region. Key informants noted that insecurity has led to a reduction in areas that can be accessed for pasturing animals, and with pasture limited and low biomass levels due to rainfall deficits, households are increasingly 26

27 purchasing oilcake to feed animals. We can say that all zones are affected by the weak availability of pasture one key informant explained, because insecurity is a concern everywhere. Both state technicians and village leaders also noted that insecurity has limited the ability of the state to provide extension services, including animal vaccinations Markets While local markets generally continue to function, with markets in Tenenkou, Diondiori, Diafarabe, Togore Coumbe, Diora, Kareri said to be active, several key informants noted that the quantity of goods available at some markets had declined due to insecurity, which affects the degree to which products are transported into the area. One key informant based in Tenenkou town noted that only larger local enterprises are still present, and with many difficulties. Village leaders in other parts of the district (Sougouble, Tenenkou) reported no major impact on availability of goods on their local markets Coping strategies Confirming the answers of households interviewed by the assessment team, several key informants explained that households in the area tended to cope with shocks to food production systems by reducing their food consumption and selling weak animals to ensure they could feed strong ones. With low river levels and insecurity also impacting fishing activities, key informants note that many households that traditionally rely on fishing for their subsistence in the zone are consuming their food stocks more rapidly than they would otherwise. Village-level leaders also noted that households are beginning to send members to search for wage labor outside the zone Humanitarian needs Key informants emphasized that the region overall has seen very low agricultural production, with all communes affected by poor harvests. While in some communities, key informants noted that NGOs provide important assistance (CARE, the Red Cross, the World Food Program, IRC, World Vision, NRC, Medecins Sans Frontieres, and the Gates Foundation were mentioned by key informants), both key informants, and assessment team members noted that many communities are frustrated by participating in surveys and not receiving assistance subsequently. Enumerators from various assessment teams reported cases of households selected for the assessment refusing to participate for this reason. Many (respondents) manifested their discontent with the fact that NGOs come to their villages recurrently and ask them for information without effect, explained one assessment team member, whose team was responsible for Ardo commune. 4 Conclusions In October and November 2017, a variety of early warning systems in Mali predicted that Tenenkou District of Mopti Region would see a deterioration of food security, with the district moving into food insecurity Phase 3 (Crisis) by July 2018, as a result of poor agricultural output and below average availability of livestock fodder. The findings of an assessment of agro-pastoral conditions carried out by CRS and CARE in late January 2018, one month into the traditional rice and garden harvest period and three months prior to the pastoral lean season, confirm that harvests across the eight communes covered by the assessment were substantially worse than those in More than half of 27

28 households in five of the eight communes said their harvest in was much worse than in , and more than 80 percent of households in six communes said their harvest was either much worse or slightly worse. After 45 percent of households had a harvest that covered their food needs for three months or fewer , 75 percent said their harvest will meet their household food needs for three months or fewer. While more than 80 percent of households are consuming three meals per day, nearly half have borderline (23 percent) or poor food consumption scores (16 percent), and 45 percent are engaged in a high-level of food-related coping strategy use. Of the eight communes covered by the assessment, Diafarabe, Oura Ardo, Sougouble and appear to have the largest proportion of highly vulnerable households, based on current levels of coping-strategy use and expected duration of current grain reserves. As household food reserves dwindle in the months ahead, with 83 percent of households saying they believe they will be able to meet their food needs for three months or fewer, the majority of households will be forced to rely more heavily on food-related coping strategies or resort to additional non-food coping strategies. At the time of the assessment, 40 percent of households said they are planning to sell livestock in the next three months to help meet their household food needs, and key informants confirmed that following a particularly poor agricultural season, households would begin to restrict their food consumption, send household members to engage in wage labor outside the zone, and liquidate livestock to cope with inadequate food reserves and liquidity constraints. To minimize the scale and depth of food insecurity in the region in the coming months, and protect affected household s productive assets, such as livestock, seed stocks and agricultural tools, this report recommends the following interventions: Provision of food assistance to highly food insecure households from the beginning of the pastoral lean season (April) through the beginning of the cereal (November) and rice harvest seasons (January), respectively, targeting a minimum of 12 percent of households in the district, or approximately 2,300 households, consisting of 26,000 individuals (see Annex 4 for calculations); Provision of quality seed to highly food insecure households lacking sufficient seeds for planting in 2018 (June-July for cereal farming households; October-November for rice farming households); Provision of animal fodder to highly food insecure households who engage in animal husbandry practice and have reduced access to pasture over the course of the pastoral lean season (April-July). Assessment results suggest that local markets may be able to support the use of cash or vouchers as a mechanism for providing assistance. Further study into appropriate mechanisms is recommended, based on reported variability in terms of market accessibility and functionality across the district, and to understand the expressed preference for food assistance, as opposed to cash, on the part of assessment respondents. 28

29 5 Annexes 5.1 Annex 1: List of communes and villages covered Commune/Village Diafarabe 13 Daro 2 Diafarabe 11 Diaka 191 Dia 57 Diabozo 40 Mayatake 37 Sare Barke 1 Toguel Amery 27 Toguel Kolle 29 Diondiori 46 Bagouma 1 Boukary 4 Diondori 10 Diogui Maoude 18 Sarre-Sebe 8 Thianguel 5 Ardo 62 Djerma 4 Kondo 30 Kontaga 4 Nene 24 Guire 54 Koubi 13 Penga 10 Piga 3 Sangha 8 Toko 20 Sougouble 51 Kona Fabe 12 Kona Mali 16 Kora 19 Sinde Sallah 4 Tenenkou 75 Tenenkou Kanguidiourou 11 Sare Mare N 29

30 5.2 Annex 2: Harande beneficiaries Beneficiary of project Harande Beneficiary Diafarabe Diaka Diondiori Ardo Yes 23% 9% 63% 0% 13% 24% 16% 68% 19% No 77% 91% 37% 100% 87% 76% 84% 32% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5.3 Annex 3: Female vs. male-headed households, key statistics Statistics presented below cover respondents who identified themselves as either a female or male head of household, and do not include respondents who did not identify as head of household. Primary livelihood activity Activity Female headed (N= 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Agriculture 63% 84% 81% Herding 0% 4% 4% Skilled labor 12% 2% 4% Small commerce 12% 3% 4% Salaried work 0% 0% 0% Agricultural labor 0% 0% 0% Seasonal work 3% 3% 3% Animal sales 3% 3% 3% None 7% 1% 2% 100% 100% 100% Household engages in off-season vegetable gardening Gardens Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Yes 39% 28% 30% No 61% 72% 70% 100% 100% 100% Type of livestock husbandry practiced Type Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Animal fattening 33% 28% 29% Semi-intensive 9% 17% 16% Intensive 12% 14% 13% Transhumance 4% 8% 7% Other 3% 8% 7% None 39% 25% 27% 100% 100% 100% 30

31 Food Consumption Score Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Score Acceptable 51% 61% 59% Borderline 34% 22% 24% Poor 15% 17% 16% 100% 100% 100% Reduced Coping Strategy Index Score Score Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) High 49% 45% 46% Moderate 39% 40% 40% Low 12% 14% 14% 100% 100% 100% Households greatest concern at present (N = 520) Concern Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Food for household 91% 90% 90% Health of household member 4% 3% 3% High price of food 3% 2% 2% Animal fodder 0% 2% 2% Insecurity 1% 1% 1% Threat to animals (insecurity) 0% 1% 1% Health of animals 0% 0% 0% Lack of water 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 1% 1% 100% 100% 100% The assistance that would help the household best meet its needs in the coming months Type Female headed (N = 67) Male-headed (N = 412) Food assistance 87% 82% 83% Cash assistance 6% 10% 10% Animal feed 7% 4% 5% Seeds 0% 2% 2% Water-points 0% 1% 1% 100% 100% 100% 31

32 5.4 Annex 4: Calculation of number of households in need of assistance The scatter plot presented below shows household food consumption scores (x-axis) and reduced coping strategy index scores (y-axis). Increasing food consumption scores denotes greater quantity and diversity of food consumed, while increasing reduced coping strategy index scores denote greater reliance on food-related coping strategies, such reducing the number of meals consumed per day, borrowing food and restricting the portion size of meals. The calculation of households in need of assistance draws on the combination of RCSI and FCS. Indicator Poor FCS Borderline FCS Acceptable FCS High coping Moderate coping Low coping Indicator N Percent of sample (N = 520) High coping + Poor FCS % High coping + Borderline FCS % Moderate coping + Poor FCS % Moderate coping + Borderline FCS % % Indicator N Assumptions Estimated % sample currently food insecure 12.3% 12.3% Estimated population Tenenkou District 211,635 Source: Cluster FS Mali Population in need (individuals) 26,031 Households 2,283 HH Sample mean HH size:

33 5.5 Maps 33

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