The ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Reinforcing Institutional Capacity for Timely Food Security Emergency Response to Slow Onset Crises

Transcription

1 The ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Reinforcing Institutional Capacity for Timely Food Security Emergency Response to Slow Onset Crises at Scale

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4 ERC SRAF Guiding Principles Timing is Critical: we need to analyse, prepare and respond early to protect lives and livelihoods Understanding people: it is necessary to understand livelihoods, the markets they depend on and the impact of a crisis thereon Rapid Funding Mechanisms: understand the resources required, to take appropriate action and release funds before a crisis peaks Responses based on need: supporting early, context-appropriate, short-term responses to meet needs and mitigate impacts Repeat, repeat, repeat: response analysis must be iterative to be relevant An adaptive framework: the framework can be used by government, donors, UN agencies, NGOs

5 What does the SRAF consist of? SRAF integrates real scenarios and forecasts into contingency planning, allowing for a needs-based rationale for interventions that is relevant, timely and easily replicable The SRAF was developed embracing the following approaches and principles: Household Economic Analysis (HEA) Market system analysis Early analysis Repeated analysis Transparent analysis and planning

6 SRAF Objectives SRAF is designed to support better short-term responses to slow-onset food security crises. Better means, Early: to protect assets Appropriate: to peoples livelihoods Proportionate: to need

7 The Framework

8 Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The traditional approach Forecasts of hazard Shock Needs Assessment Analysis Planning Action Immediate Food Assistance

9 Contingency funds Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters The SRAF ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Update Scenarios & Contingency Plan Baseline Assessment Early Analysis Early Planning Forecasts of hazard Shock Background review; historical data Livelihood Assessment Market Assessment Analysing the impact of different shocks; quantify needs & geographic focus Develop Strategic Priorities Identify response options, start up times and key milestones Engagement with communities, government, donors, UN, NGOs and private sector Early Action Timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance in the short-medium term Reducing vulnerability and contributing to resilience building in the medium-long term

10 What this means: a timeline Traditional Approach Short Rains Forecast Sep 2013 SHORT RAINS Nov Dec 2013 Short Rains Assessment Jan Feb 2014 Situation Analysis Feb 2014 Response March April 2014 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 SRAF The SRAF 2 MONTH LEAD Response Lead

11 Baseline Assessments: the two pillars Market analysis Pre Crisis Market Mapping and Analysis Livelihood Analysis Household Economy Analysis Rapid Household Economy Analysis

12 The HEA Dashboard

13 Early Analysis Process Step A: Map livelihoods calendar Early Analysis Step B: Develop detailed scenario modelling Step C: Determine strategic objectives Identify Hazard, Livelihoods And Market Monitoring Parameters

14 Step A: Map Livelihoods Calendar Changes in the quantities of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in the price of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in Non-food factors such as Water, Health, Nutrition, Education Changes in Prices and Quantities used as an input for developing scenarios in Step B Changes in Non-food factors are used to develop Strategic Objectives in Step C Changes in Market Chain, Market Environment and Infrastructure and Services CASE STUDY: Marsabit Water Access One of the scenarios considered during a Response Analysis workshop in Marsabit, Kenya in October 2013 was Below Average Short Rains in November and December.

15 Step B: Develop detailed scenarios To quickly model the impact of a forecast hazard you will need to use the HEA Dashboard for the rapid development of quantified scenarios in the SRAF. o The population of the Livelihood Zones o Projected Changes in Prices and Quantities from the Crisis Calendar developed in Step A o Price Data for the Reference Year The projected changes in household s sources of food, income and expenditure can be summarized in the Key Parameters template.

16 Step C: Determine Strategic Objectives Using the results worksheet of your HEA Dashboard developed in Step B, you should develop strategic objectives that address the projected needs in the scenario developed in Step B. These projected needs can be different for different wealth groups and whether they face a survival or livelihoods deficit. Table 1: Scenarios for May April 2015: Total Population of Highland & Midland Zones Scenario 1: Poor Rains Scenario 2: Food Prices Increases (100%) Wealth Group Very Poor Poor Middle Better- Off TOTAL Very Poor Poor Middle Better -Off TOTAL V Population facing a Deficit Survival Deficit Survival Deficit 95, ,000 95, , ,000 13,000 HH ,000 HH 13,000 HH 48,000 HH ,000 HH 13 HH Deficit YER 85, YER 57,000 YER 30, YE Total Deficit 3m m 2m 4m 0 0 6m YER 1,160m YER 1,160m YER 780m YER 1,410m 0 0 YER 2,190m Y Livelihood Deficit Livelihood Deficit Population facing a Deficit 95, , ,000 95, , ,000 13,000 HH 48,000 HH ,000 HH 13,000 HH 48,000 HH ,000 HH 13 HH Deficit YER 15, YER 7, YER 10,000 YER 10, YE Total Deficit 600, , m 400k 1.3m m YER 225m YER 345m 0 0 YER 570m YER 135m YER 485m 0 0 YER 620m Y IPC MLL Phase: m 3 7.7m IPC HLA Phase: grey shading indicates a deficit of less than 1 month

17 Early Planning Process Step D: Select appropriate interventions Step E: Identify agency priorities and parameters Early Planning Step F: Map start-up timelines and prepare Communicate to partners, communities and donors Monitor hazard, livelihood and market parameters and refine models and update plans

18 Step D: Select Appropriate Interventions

19 Step E: Identify Agency Priorities and Parameters Using the selected interventions, analyse what your agency has implement over the past 3 or 4 years, and what is currently being implemented by other agencies in the area. Objective and Interventions Agency Strategic Partner To protect prime shoats from loss or stress sales (prime breeding stocks) of 65,000 very poor and poor Agro-pastoralists for 6 months (November to April) 1. Livestock feeding 1. Livestock vaccination campaigns 1. Strategic deworming 1. Destocking 1. Support District Veterinary office in management and treatment of livestock diseases 1. Provision of water for the livestock

20 Step F: Map Start-Up Timelines and Prepare The first step in mapping your start-up timelines and decision dates is to identify the windows of opportunity for the interventions that you have selected for your agency.

21 SRAF and Responding to System Challenges Discussions with operational agencies, donors and Governments revealed that improvements in livelihood analysis and contingency planning would not lead directly to early response. Early response were constrained by a series of systems problems : Local Consensus about Livelihoods and vulnerability Early Funding Local Coordination Agency Preparedness Flexible long-term funding Early warning: predictive and analytical

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