Attachment JEM 4 Hearing Exhibit 116 Page 1 of 11] Residential Sales 5,817,938 90,842,431 96,660,368. Normal HDD
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1 Residential Sales Page 1 of 11] F=C*(D E)*B H=G F B C D E F G H Month HDD Coefficient Customers HDD Normal HDD Weather Impact Actual Billed WN Billed Jan ,256,043 1,183 1,102 1,193,343 18,806,509 17,613,166 Feb ,257, ,128,408 14,202,914 15,331,321 Mar ,259, ,530,013 11,646,578 14,176,591 Apr ,260, ,052 8,705,273 8,727,325 May ,261, ,740 6,487,853 5,641,113 Jun ,261, ,528 3,526,711 3,474,183 Jul ,261, ,585 1,970,138 2,145,723 Aug ,262, ,081,557 2,081,557 Sep ,263, ,357 2,140,219 2,209,576 Oct ,265, ,375 3,114,637 3,972,012 Nov ,267, ,044,010 4,917,639 7,961,649 Dec ,269, ,749 13,242,403 13,326,153 5,817,938 90,842,431 96,660,368
2 Small Commercial Sales Page 2 of 11 F=C*(D E)*B H=G F B C D E F G H Month HDD Coefficient Customers HDD Normal HDD Weather Impact Actual Billed WN Billed Jan ,918 1,183 1, ,107 6,388,165 6,516,201 Feb , ,568 4,961,381 5,007,332 Mar , ,022 4,055,933 4,742,508 Apr , ,154 3,176,153 3,350,750 May , ,050 2,334,423 2,085,855 Jun , ,931 1,492,460 1,448,570 Jul , , ,137 Aug , , ,652 Sep , , ,994 Oct , ,081 1,141,461 1,436,739 Nov , ,716 1,667,595 2,372,781 Dec , ,321 4,405,860 5,245,699 1,620,774 32,275,682 34,975,218
3 Large Commercial Sales Page 3 of 11 F=C*(D E)*B H=G F B C D E F G H Month HDD Coefficient Customers HDD Normal HDD Weather Impact Actual Billed WN Billed Jan ,183 1,102 49, , ,767 Feb , , ,303 Mar , , ,398 Apr , , ,098 May , , ,879 Jun , , ,978 Jul , ,565 Aug , ,968 Sep , ,659 Oct , , ,425 Nov , , ,861 Dec , , , ,831 5,772,282 5,986,114
4 B C D E F Month HDD Coefficient Customers HDD Normal HDD Weather Impact Jan ,264 1,183 1,102 93,980 Feb , ,485 Mar , ,876 Apr , ,415 May , ,359 Jun , ,462 Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , ,460 Dec , , ,064 Page 4 of 11
5 TF Full Large Volumes 1 F=C*(D E)*B 2 B C D E F Normal HDD Weather Impact 3 Month HDD Coefficient Customers HDD 4 Jan ,548 1,183 1, ,573 5 Feb , ,520 6 Mar , ,383 7 Apr , ,936 8 May , ,605 9 Jun , , Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , , Dec , , ,714 Page 5 of 11
6 Page 6 of 11 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Total Actual Billed Sales (Dth) Residential 18,806,509 14,202,914 11,646,578 8,705,273 6,487,853 3,526,711 1,970,138 2,081,557 2,140,219 3,114,637 4,917,639 13,242,403 90,842,431 Small C/I 6,388,165 4,961,381 4,055,933 3,176,153 2,334,423 1,492, , , ,781 1,141,461 1,667,595 4,405,860 32,275,682 Large C/I 949, , , , , , , , , , , ,736 5,772,282 Interdepartmental 2,023 2,033 6,562 2,389 3,838 2,550 4,246-6,431 1,181 1, ,098 23,434 Total C/I 7,339,450 5,763,894 4,752,249 3,719,628 2,787,792 1,855,573 1,101,912 1,054,906 1,155,621 1,399,373 2,021,307 5,119,693 38,071,398 Total Retail 26,145,959 19,966,808 16,398,827 12,424,900 9,275,645 5,382,284 3,072,050 3,136,464 3,295,840 4,514,010 6,938,946 18,362, ,913,829 Weather Normalized Billed Sales (Dth) Residential 17,613,166 15,331,321 14,176,591 8,727,325 5,641,113 3,474,183 2,145,723 2,081,557 2,209,576 3,972,012 7,961,649 13,326,153 96,660,368 Small C/I 6,007,058 5,313,950 4,897,955 3,183,307 2,056,373 1,472, , , ,781 1,363,542 2,517,312 4,432,180 33,896,456 Large C/I 899, , , , , , , , , , , ,212 5,986,114 Interdepartmental 2,023 2,033 6,562 2,389 3,838 2,550 4,246-6,431 1,181 1, ,098 23,434 Total C/I 6,908,848 6,162,286 5,711,915 3,727,794 2,460,090 1,831,057 1,101,912 1,054,906 1,155,621 1,653,656 2,988,428 5,149,491 39,906,003 Total Retail 24,522,013 21,493,607 19,888,506 12,455,119 8,101,203 5,305,240 3,247,635 3,136,464 3,365,196 5,625,668 10,950,077 18,475, ,566,372 Weather Adjustment (Therms) Residential -11,933,429 11,284,077 25,300, ,521-8,467, ,281 1,755, ,566 8,573,748 30,440, ,494 58,179,376 Small C/I -3,811,073 3,525,684 8,420,220 71,537-2,780, , ,220,813 8,497, ,207 16,207,738 Large C/I -494, ,232 1,176,440 10, ,523-45, ,021 1,174,044 34,765 2,138,315 Interdepartmental Total C/I -4,306,021 3,983,916 9,596,660 81,669-3,277, , ,542,834 9,671, ,972 18,346,053 Total Retail -16,239,451 15,267,993 34,896, ,190-11,744, ,443 1,755, ,566 11,116,582 40,111,312 1,135,466 76,525,429 Allocation by Tariff Residential (RG) Residential (RGL) Sm C&I (CSG) Sm C&I (CGL) Sm C&I (IG) Sm C&I (TFS) Sm C&I (CG-T) Lg C&I (CLG) Lg C&I (TF) Lg C&I (TI) Weather Adjustment by Tariff (Thms) Residential (RG) -11,933,429 11,284,077 25,300, ,521-8,467, ,281 1,755, ,566 8,573,748 30,440, ,494 58,179,376 Residential (RGL) Sm C&I (CSG) -3,776,819 3,471,935 8,294,902 70,221-2,722, , ,175,994 8,274, ,967 15,854,576 Sm C&I (CGL) Sm C&I (IG) -26,683 45, ,872 1,162-53,435-4, , ,790 2, ,624 Sm C&I (TFS) -7,515 8,484 15, , ,082 27, ,779 Sm C&I (TI) Lg C&I (CLG) -454, ,162 1,082,726 9, ,354-41, ,501 1,113,830 31,893 2,009,857 Lg C&I (TF) -34,011 39,413 87, ,753-2, ,498 60,058 2, ,159 Lg C&I (TI) -6,287 2,657 6, ,416-1, ,701 Interdepartmental Total -16,239,451 15,267,993 34,896, ,190-11,744, ,443 1,755, ,566 11,116,582 40,111,312 1,135,466 76,525,429
7 Page 7 of 11 PSCO Gas Residential Model PSCO Gas Residential Model 2016 Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb 2016 Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value ResidentialVars.XHeatXHDD % ResidentialVars.XHeatXHDD % RevWthrTrans.RESJanHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESJanHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESFebHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESFebHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESMarHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESMarHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESAprHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESAprHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESMayHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESMayHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESJunHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESJunHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResJulHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResJulHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResSepHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResSepHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResOctHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.ResOctHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESNovHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESNovHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESDecHDDCust % RevWthrTrans.RESDecHDDCust % Binary.heatingseasontrend % Binary.heatingseasontrend % AR(1) % AR(1) % Model Statistics Model Statistics Iterations Iterations Adjusted Observations Adjusted Observations Deg. of Freedom for Error Deg. of Freedom for Error R Squared R Squared Adjusted R Squared Adjusted R Squared AIC AIC BIC BIC F Statistic NA F Statistic NA Prob (F Statistic) NA Prob (F Statistic) NA Log Likelihood 2564 Log Likelihood 2716 Model Sum of Squares Model Sum of Squares Sum of Squared Errors Sum of Squared Errors Mean Squared Error Mean Squared Error Std. Error of Regression Std. Error of Regression Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) % Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) % Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 0.04 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 0.04 Durbin Watson Statistic Durbin Watson Statistic Durbin H Statistic NA Durbin H Statistic NA Ljung Box Statistic Ljung Box Statistic Prob (Ljung Box) Prob (Ljung Box) Skewness Skewness Kurtosis Kurtosis Jarque Bera Jarque Bera Prob (Jarque Bera) 0 Prob (Jarque Bera) 0
8 Page 8 of 11 PSCO Gas Small C&I Model PSCO Gas Small C&I Model 2016 Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb 2016 Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value PSCoRev_ComStrucVars.XHeatXHDD % PSCoRev_ComStrucVars.XHeatXHDD % RevWthrTrans.CIJanHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIJanHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIFebHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIFebHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMarHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMarHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIAprHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIAprHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMayHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMayHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIJunHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIJunHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIOctHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIOctHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CINovHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CINovHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIDecHDDSmllCust % RevWthrTrans.CIDecHDDSmllCust % Binary.Feb % Binary.Jan % Binary.Dec % Binary.Jan % Binary.Jan % AR(1) % MA(1) % Model Statistics Model Statistics Iterations 1 Iterations 14 Adjusted Observations 117 Adjusted Observations 119 Deg. of Freedom for Error 104 Deg. of Freedom for Error 105 R Squared R Squared Adjusted R Squared Adjusted R Squared AIC AIC BIC BIC F Statistic NA F Statistic NA Prob (F Statistic) NA Prob (F Statistic) NA Log Likelihood Log Likelihood Model Sum of Squares Model Sum of Squares Sum of Squared Errors Sum of Squared Errors Mean Squared Error Mean Squared Error Std. Error of Regression Std. Error of Regression Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 0.05 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 0.06 Durbin Watson Statistic 1.83 Durbin Watson Statistic 1.98 Durbin H Statistic NA Durbin H Statistic NA Ljung Box Statistic Ljung Box Statistic Prob (Ljung Box) Prob (Ljung Box) Skewness Skewness Kurtosis Kurtosis Jarque Bera Jarque Bera Prob (Jarque Bera) Prob (Jarque Bera) Prob (Jarque Bera)
9 Page 9 of 11 PSCO Gas Large C&I Model PSCO Gas Large C&I Model 2016 Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb Budget Weather Coefficient Model Feb Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value 2 3 PSCoRev_ComStrucVars.XHeatXHDDLarge % PSCoRev_ComStrucVars.XHeatXHDDLarge % 4 RevWthrTrans.CIJanHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIJanHDDLrgCust % 5 RevWthrTrans.CIFebHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIFebHDDLrgCust % 6 RevWthrTrans.CIMarHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMarHDDLrgCust % 7 RevWthrTrans.CIAprHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIAprHDDLrgCust % 8 RevWthrTrans.CIMayHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIMayHDDLrgCust % 9 RevWthrTrans.CIJunHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIJunHDDLrgCust % 10 RevWthrTrans.CIOctHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIOctHDDLrgCust % 11 RevWthrTrans.CINovHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CINovHDDLrgCust % 12 RevWthrTrans.CIDecHDDLrgCust % RevWthrTrans.CIDecHDDLrgCust % 13 Binary.Apr % AR(1) % 14 AR(1) % Regression Statistics Model Statistics 19 Iterations 7 Iterations 7 20 Adjusted Observations 104 Adjusted Observations Deg. of Freedom for Error 92 Deg. of Freedom for Error R Squared R Squared Adjusted R Squared Adjusted R Squared AIC AIC BIC BIC F Statistic NA F Statistic NA 27 Prob (F Statistic) NA Prob (F Statistic) NA 28 Log Likelihood Log Likelihood Model Sum of Squares Model Sum of Squares Sum of Squared Errors Sum of Squared Errors Mean Squared Error Mean Squared Error Std. Error of Regression Std. Error of Regression Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 0.08 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) Durbin Watson Statistic 2.09 Durbin Watson Statistic Durbin H Statistic NA Durbin H Statistic NA 37 Ljung Box Statistic Ljung Box Statistic Prob (Ljung Box) Prob (Ljung Box) Skewness Skewness Kurtosis Kurtosis Jarque Bera Jarque Bera Prob (Jarque Bera) Prob (Jarque Bera)
10 PSCO Gas TF Small Model Weather Coefficient Model Page 10 of 11 1 Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value 2 3 CONST % 4 RevWthrTrans.JanHDD % 5 RevWthrTrans.FebHDD % 6 RevWthrTrans.MarHDD % 7 RevWthrTrans.AprHDD % 8 RevWthrTrans.MayHDD % 9 RevWthrTrans.JunHDD % 10 RevWthrTrans.NovHDD % 11 RevWthrTrans.DecHDD % 12 Weather.Billdays % 13 Binary.May % 14 AR(1) % 15 AR(2) % Regression Statistics 19 Iterations 9 20 Adjusted Observations Deg. of Freedom for Error R Squared Adjusted R Squared AIC BIC F Statistic Prob (F Statistic) Log Likelihood Model Sum of Squares Sum of Squared Errors Mean Squared Error Std. Error of Regression Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) Durbin Watson Statistic Durbin H Statistic NA 37 Ljung Box Statistic Prob (Ljung Box) Skewness Kurtosis Jarque Bera Prob (Jarque Bera)
11 PSCO Gas TF Large Model Weather Coefficient Model Page 11 of 11 1 Variable Coefficient StdErr T Stat P Value 2 3 CONST % 4 RevWthrTrans.JanHDD % 5 RevWthrTrans.FebHDD % 6 RevWthrTrans.MarHDD % 7 RevWthrTrans.AprHDD % 8 RevWthrTrans.MayHDD % 9 RevWthrTrans.JunHDD % 10 RevWthrTrans.NovHDD % 11 RevWthrTrans.DecHDD % 12 Weather.Billdays % 13 Binary.may % 14 Binary.May % 15 AR(1) % 16 AR(2) % Regression Statistics 19 Iterations Adjusted Observations Deg. of Freedom for Error R Squared Adjusted R Squared AIC BIC F Statistic Prob (F Statistic) Log Likelihood Model Sum of Squares Sum of Squared Errors Mean Squared Error Std. Error of Regression Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) Durbin Watson Statistic Durbin H Statistic NA 37 Ljung Box Statistic Prob (Ljung Box) Skewness Kurtosis Jarque Bera Prob (Jarque Bera)
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