Lampiran 1 : Grafik Data HIV Asli
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1 Lampiran 1 : Grafik Data HIV Asli Penderita Tahun HIV Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev Observations 60
2 Lampiran 2 : Correlogram data HIV Asli Date: 01/21/13 Time: 01:46 Sample: 2007M M12 Included observations: 60
3 Lampiran 2 Lanjutan
4 Lampiran 3 : ADF data HIV Asli
5 Lampiran 4: Correlogram Data HIV Differencing
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7 Lampiran 5: ADF Data HIV Differencing DHIV Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev Observations 59
8 Lampiran 6: Grafik Data HIV Differencing Penderita Tahun
9 Lampiran 7: Estimasi Model a. Arima (2.1.1) Dependent Variable: DHIV Method: Least Squares Date: 01/04/13 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 2007M M12 Included observations: 57 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 16 iterations MA Backcast: 2007M03 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C AR(1) AR(2) MA(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots Inverted MA Roots.96
10 b. Uji correlogram Q-Stat
11 c. Model Arima (1.1.2) Dependent Variable: DHIV Method: Least Squares Date: 01/04/13 Time: 10:53 Sample (adjusted): 2007M M12 Included observations: 58 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 51 iterations MA Backcast: 2007M M02 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C AR(1) MA(1) MA(2) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots.59 Inverted MA Roots.96.12
12 d. Uji correlogram Q-Stat
13 e. Model Arima (2.1.2) Dependent Variable: DHIV Method: Least Squares Date: 01/04/13 Time: 11:06 Sample (adjusted): 2007M M12 Included observations: 57 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 129 iterations MA Backcast: OFF (Roots of MA process too large) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C AR(1) AR(2) MA(1) MA(2) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots Inverted MA Roots Estimated MA process is noninvertible
14 f. Uji correlogram Q-Stat
15 g. Model Arima (1.1.1) Dependent Variable: DHIV Method: Least Squares Date: 01/04/13 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 2007M M12 Included observations: 58 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 17 iterations MA Backcast: 2007M02 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C AR(1) MA(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots.50 Inverted MA Roots.96
16 h. Uji correlogram Q-stat
17 Lampiran 8: Peramalan Forecast: HIVF Actual: HIV Forecast sample: 2007M M12 Adjusted sample: 2007M M12 Included observations: 58 Root Mean Squared Error Mean Absolute Error Mean Abs. Percent Error Theil Inequality Coefficient Bias Proportion Variance Proportion Covariance Proportion HIVF ± 2 S.E HIVF+2*SE_1 HIVF-2*SE_1 HIV
18 Lampiran 8: Lanjutan Residual Actual Fitted
19 Lampiran 9: Hasil Peramalan Jumlah Penderita HIV Tahun di Kota Medan Periode Aktual Forecast 2007M01 20 NA 2007M02 23 NA 2007M ,9 2007M ,1 2007M ,4 2007M ,9 2007M ,3 2007M ,8 2007M ,3 2007M ,8 2007M ,3 2007M ,9 2008M ,4 2008M ,9 2008M ,4 2008M ,9 2008M ,4 2008M ,0 2008M ,5 2008M ,0 2008M ,5 2008M ,0 2008M ,5 2008M ,0 2009M ,6 2009M ,1 2009M ,6
20 Lampiran 9: Lanjutan Lampiran Lanjutan Periode Aktual Forecast 2009M ,1 2009M ,6 2009M ,1 2009M ,6 2009M ,2 2009M ,7 2009M ,2 2009M ,7 2009M ,2 2010M ,7 2010M ,3 2010M ,8 2010M ,3 2010M ,8 2010M ,3 2010M ,8 2010M ,3 2010M ,9 2010M ,4 2010M ,9 2010M ,4 2011M ,9 2011M ,4 2011M ,9 2011M ,5 2011M ,0 2011M ,5 2011M ,0 2011M ,5 2011M ,0 2011M ,6 2011M ,1 2011M ,6 Jumlah ,7
21 Lampiran 10: Hasil Peramalan Jumlah Penderita HIV Tahun di Kota Medan Periode Proyeksi 2012M01 52,1 2012M02 52,6 2012M03 53,1 2012M04 53,6 2012M05 54,2 2012M06 54,7 2012M07 55,2 2012M08 55,7 2012M09 56,2 2012M10 56,7 2012M11 57,2 2012M12 57,8 2013M01 58,3 2013M02 58,8 2013M03 59,3 2013M04 59,8 2013M05 60,3 2013M06 60,9 2013M07 61,4 2013M08 61,9 2013M09 62,4 2013M10 62,9 2013M11 63,4 2013M12 63,9 2014M01 64,5 2014M02 65,0 2014M03 65,5 2014M04 66,0 2014M05 66,5 2014M06 67,0 2014M07 67,5 2014M08 68,1 2014M09 68,6 2014M10 69,1 2014M11 69,6 2014M12 70,1 2015M01 70,6 2015M02 71,1 2015M03 71,7
22 Lampiran 10: Lanjutan Periode Proyeksi 2015M04 72,2 2015M05 72,7 2015M06 73,2 2015M07 73,7 2015M08 74,2 2015M09 74,8 2015M10 75,3 2015M11 75,8 2015M12 76,3 2016M01 76,8 2016M02 77,3 2016M03 77,8 2016M04 78,4 2016M05 78,9 2016M06 79,4 2016M07 79,9 2016M08 80,4 2016M09 80,9 2016M10 81,4 2016M11 82,0 2016M12 82,5 Jumlah 4.037,3 HIV Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Skewness -8.07E-15 Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev Observations 60
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