Key market performance drivers

Transcription

1 Key market performance drivers Monthly charts September

2 Market returns concentration One-year returns ending: September-16 August-16 July-16 NASPERS NASPERS NASPERS SIBANYE GOLD LTD SIBANYE GOLD LTD ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD HARMONY BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO SIBANYE GOLD LTD ANGLO SABMILLER PLC HARMONY Top 5 ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD 90% Top 5 ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD 92% Top 5 GFIELDS 81% Top 6 BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO 96% Top 6 HARMONY 97% Top 6 BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO 87% LONMIN GFIELDS SABMILLER PLC IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS STEINHOFF INTL HLD NV STEINHOFF INTL HLD NV GFIELDS SAPPI SAPPI Top 10 SAPPI 116% Top 10 LONMIN 110% Top 10 TIGBRANDS 103% SHOPRIT TIGBRANDS SHOPRIT NORTHAM SHOPRIT ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM TIGBRANDS CLICKS GROUP LTD LONMIN ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM LIMITED REINET INVESTMENTS RESILIENT REIT LTD CLICKS GROUP LTD CAPITEC IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS VODACOM NEW EUROPE PROPERTY INVESTMENTS PLC PAN-AF ASPEN ASPEN CAPITEC PAN-AF PAN-AF CLICKS GROUP LTD CAPITEC BLUETEL NORTHAM Top 20 EXXARO 134% Top 20 ANGLO 121% Top 20 VODACOM 119% Remaining (Positive) 15% Remaining (Positive) 12% Remaining (Positive) 14% Negative (75 Shares) -49% Negative (74 Shares) -33% Negative (72 Shares) -32% Market-cap weighted returns: 10 shares contributed 116% to the return of the SWIX, while 20 shares contributed 134% Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments 2 investments

3 Active-index analysis One-year rolling active to August* % 850% 10% Active outperforms 750% 650% 5% 550% 0% -5% 450% 350% 250% -10% Active underperforms 150% 50% -15% Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Active Equity managers - SWIX (12m rolling) Active Equity Managers Cumulative SWIX Cumulative -50% The average of the active equity managers underperformed the SWIX for the year ended August 2016 Source: Alexander Forbes S.A. Equity Manager Watch Survey, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 3 investments

4 Active versus tracker: Cash (lagged by one month) One-year rolling average to August* % 155% 135% Active outperforms 115% 10% 95% 5% 75% 55% 35% 0% 15% Active underperforms -5% -5% -25% Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Active Cash managers - STeFI (12m rolling) Active Cash Managers Cumulative STeFI Cumulative Source: Alexander Forbes S.A. Money Market Manager Watch Survey, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 4 investments

5 Active versus tracker: Bonds (lagged by one month) One-year rolling average to August* % 200% 10% Active outperforms 150% 5% 100% 0% 50% -5% -10% Active underperforms 0% -15% -50% Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Active Bond managers - ALBI (12m rolling) Active Bond Managers Cumulative ALBI Cumulative Source: Alexander Forbes S.A Bond Manager Watch Survey, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 5 investments

6 Active versus tracker: Property (lagged by one month) One-year rolling average to August* % 1350% 10% Active outperforms 1150% 5% 950% 750% 0% 550% -5% 350% -10% Active underperforms 150% -15% -50% Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Active Property managers - SAPY (12m rolling) Active Property Managers Cumulative SAPY Cumulative Source: Alexander Forbes S.A. Property Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 6 investments

7 Style returns for South Africa Data to Aug 2016 ZAR Styles One month to Aug 2016 Three months to One year to Aug Aug Three years to Aug 2016 Five years to Aug 2016 Ten years to Aug 2016 Twenty years to Aug 2016 Book to Price Value Dividend Yield Earnings Yield Cash Flow Yield Sales to Price ROE ROIC LT Quality Income to Sales Low market beta Growth Momentu m Low Debt/Equity EBIT Margin Stability Earnings Growth Sales Growth M Earning Growth FY1 Earnings Revisions Short Term Momentum Medium Term Momentum Size Size The Value and some Quality factors had strong returns for the shorter term. Overall, the various momentum factors have been strong in the longer term especially FY1 Earnings Revisions and Medium Term Momentum. Source: FactSet, Momentum Global Investment Management and Momentum Investments 7 investments

8 MSCI developed and emerging markets One year to September One year to September 2016 Developed markets = 9.18% Emerging markets = 14.21% SWIX = 9.91% Three months to September 2016 Developed markets = 4.42% Emerging markets = 8.39% SWIX = 7.51% Sep 30, 2015 Nov 11, 2015 Dec 23, 2015 Feb 03, 2016 Mar 16, 2016 Apr 27, 2016 Jun 08, 2016 Jul 20, 2016 Aug 31, 2016 Source: INET BFA, MSCI and Momentum Investments MSCI Developed Markets (USD) MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) SWIX (USD) 8 investments

9 SA 10-year bond yields Five years to September Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 SA 10 year bond yield SA 10-year bond yields decreased by 34 bps for September investments

10 Yield of R197 (inflation-linked bond) Since May 2001 to September 2016 May-01 Feb-02 Nov-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14 Nov-14 Aug-15 May-16 R 197 Inflation-linked bond yields ended marginally higher for September investments

11 120 FTSE/JSE sectors One year to September One year to September 2016 Resources = 9.77% Financials = -0.91% Industrials = 4.49% Three months to September 2016 Resources = 8.07% Financials = 0.85% Industrials = -2.05% Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-16 Resources Financials Industrials FTSE/JSE Resources was the only sector to have positive returns for the three-month and one-year periods 11 investments

12 FTSE/JSE sectors Rolling three-year return to September % 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Resources Financials Industrials The three-year rolling picture has remained relatively unchanged since 2012, with financials marginally ahead of industrials, while resources continued to lag Returns are annualised 12 investments

13 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed (three months to September 2016) Three months to Sept Coal Mining Mining 26.8% 19 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials -1.1% 2 Platinum Mining Mining 22.6% 20 Life Insurance Financials -1.5% 3 Software & Computer Services Technology 19.7% 21 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -1.9% 4 General Mining Mining 16.7% 22 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -2.8% 5 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services 14.6% 23 Tobacco Consumer Goods -5.1% 6 Construction & Materials Industrials 12.3% 24 Equity Investment Instruments Financials -5.3% 7 Industrial Metals Basic Materials 10.8% 25 Beverages Consumer Goods -5.7% 8 Banks Financials 9.9% 26 General Financial Financials -6.2% 9 Industrial Transportation Industrials 7.7% 27 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials -6.4% 10 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials 7.7% 28 Household Goods Consumer Goods -6.8% 11 Media Consumer Services 6.2% 29 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care -6.9% 12 Food Producers Consumer Goods 5.1% 30 General Retailers Consumer Services -7.7% 13 Industrial Engineering Industrials 2.9% 31 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication -8.7% 14 Non-life Insurance Financials 2.5% 32 Gold Mining Mining -10.0% 15 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 1.6% 33 Support Services Industrials -12.6% 16 Personal Goods Consumer Goods 1.3% 34 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care -12.8% 17 General Industrials Industrials 0.4% 35 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication -14.3% 18 Chemicals Basic Materials -0.8% Key Resources Financials Industrials Coal and Platinum Mining were the best-performing sectors for the last three months Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments 13 investments

14 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed (one year to September 2016) One year to Sept Gold Mining Mining 128.7% 19 Software & Computer Services Technology 2.6% 2 Industrial Metals Basic Materials 84.1% 20 Industrial Transportation Industrials 2.4% 3 Platinum Mining Mining 73.3% 21 Equity Investment Instruments Financials 1.9% 4 Coal Mining Mining 64.8% 22 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials -0.6% 5 Media Consumer Services 37.2% 23 Construction & Materials Industrials -0.9% 6 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services 20.3% 24 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care -0.9% 7 Tobacco Consumer Goods 19.7% 25 Life Insurance Financials -1.4% 8 General Industrials Industrials 15.2% 26 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication -3.0% 9 Food Producers Consumer Goods 14.2% 27 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -4.5% 10 General Mining Mining 13.9% 28 Household Goods Consumer Goods -5.7% 11 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials 12.0% 29 General Retailers Consumer Services -6.8% 12 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 10.1% 30 General Financial Financials -10.1% 13 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care 7.6% 31 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials -10.2% 14 Non-life Insurance Financials 6.6% 32 Personal Goods Consumer Goods -20.3% 15 Chemicals Basic Materials 5.1% 33 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication -21.3% 16 Banks Financials 4.8% 34 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -28.8% 17 Industrial Engineering Industrials 3.2% 35 Support Services Industrials -37.9% 18 Beverages Consumer Goods 2.7% Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments Key Resources Financials Industrials 14 investments

15 FTSE/JSE market caps One year to September One year to September 2016 SWIX 40 = 6.86% Mid Cap = 22.51% Small Cap = 14.78% Three months to September 2016 SWIX 40 = -0.62% Mid Cap = 3.79% Small Cap = 5.52% Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-16 SWIX 40 Mid Cap Small Cap While all of the market caps performed well for the last year, the FTSE/JSE Mid Cap and Small Cap Indices had double-digit returns for the period 15 investments

16 Local asset classes Three months to September % 1.9% % 0.3% -0.7% Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep-16 SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB All returns in rand terms 16 investments

17 Global asset classes Three months to September % % -5.9% -6.1% -6.7% Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep-16 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR All returns in rand terms 17 investments

18 Local asset classes One year to September % 8.4% 7.6% 7.1% 5.9% 3.8% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-16 SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data All returns in rand terms 18 investments

19 Global asset classes One year to September % 9.1% 8.2% 6.5% % Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Sep-16 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR All returns in rand terms 19 investments

20 Local asset classes Five years to September % 16.8% % 8.0% 6.0% 5.7% 84 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 The FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property and the FTSE/JSE SWIX remained in the lead for the five-year period. All the depicted asset classes ended the period ahead of inflation* (five-year inflation was 5.7%). SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 20 investments

21 Global asset classes Five years to September % 21.2% % 11.9% 11.1% Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR Global equity had the best return for the five-year period, with 21.5%, followed closely by global property with 21.2% All returns in rand terms 21 investments

22 Asset classes Ten years to September % % 10.2% 9.8% 8.5% 8.3% 7.3% 6.2% 5.9% Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Global Bonds SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB CPI Global Equity For the 10-year period to September, the FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property continued to outperform, followed by the SWIX and global bonds *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data All returns in rand terms 22 investments

23 Exchange rates One year to September Exchange rate % -0.2% -0.8% Three months to September 2016: Sterling-Rand: -10.1% Euro-Rand: -5.4% Dollar-Rand: -6.7% 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-16 Sterling-Rand Euro-Rand Dollar-Rand The rand appreciated against all currencies for the last one-year and three-month periods. 23 investments

24 Gold (rands), FTSE/JSE SWIX, CPI, SteFI One-year rolling returns to September % 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% % % Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Gold (ZAR) CPI SteFI SWIX Returns from the gold price in rand terms for the one-year rolling period are showing their diversification benefits compared with equities. The returns were higher than those of the equity market for September *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 24 investments

25 Commodities Three months to September % % 0.3% 0.1% -0.1% -0.7% -3.2% Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep-16 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Palladium had an exceptional return for the last three months at 22.6% Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms 25 investments

26 Commodities One year to September % 13.2% 9.2% 3.0% -0.8% -3.6% -5.1% Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-16 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms 26 investments

27 SAVI-VIX Since February 2007 to September SAVI Financial / credit crisis European debt crisis (Sovereign debt concerns) S&P downgrade US debt Renewed fears about euro zone debt Fed advises of potential tapering of QE 3 Uncertainty around US rate hikes Brexit Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 VIX SAVI VIX 27 investments

28 Foreign transactions 2013 to Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 R(m) Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Foreign Transactions Bonds Foreign Transactions Equities Rand/USDollar Exchange Rate There have been mixed results over the years. However, for the 13 th month in a row net outflows have taken place from equities. Source: Source: INET BFA INETand BFAMomentum and Momentum Investments Investments 28 investments

29 Cumulative foreign transaction equities 2011 to December January February March April May June July August September October November December investments

30 Cumulative foreign transaction bonds 2011 to December January February March April May June July August September October November December investments

31 End of key market performance drivers monthly charts for September investments

32 Thank you 32 investments

33 Disclaimer 33 investments