DRW Investment Research. Market Performances and Indicators

Transcription

1 DRW Investment Research Market Performances and Indicators 31 December 2016

2 1. FTSE JSE Indices Performances ALSI ALSI TRI SWIX TRI 1-year -1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 2-year 0.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3-year 2.8% 5.8% 6.9% 4-year 6.3% 9.5% 10.2% 5-year 9.4% 12.8% 13.7% 6-year 7.7% 11.0% 12.1% 7-year 8.9% 12.1% 13.3% 8-year 11.2% 14.4% 15.3% 9-year 6.3% 9.5% 10.4% 10-year 7.3% 10.4% 11.2% 11-year 9.7% 12.9% 13.5% 12-year 12.2% 15.4% 15.8% 13-year 12.9% 16.2% 17.1% 14-year 12.8% 16.2% 17.3% Return = Annualised return ALSI = All Share Index, price movement only, dividends excluded ALSI TRI = All Share Index Total return index, dividends re-invested SWIX TRI = Shareholder Weighted All Share Index, dividends re-invested 2

3 1-year 2-year 3-year 4-year 5-year 6-year 7-year 8-year 9-year 10-year 11-year 12-year 13-year 14-year Annualised return 1-year 2-year 3-year 4-year 5-year 6-year 7-year 8-year 9-year 10-year 11-year 12-year 13-year 14-year 15-year 16-year 17-year 18-year 19-year 20-year Annualised return 20.0% FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) Returns (dividends re-invested) End of December % 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% Holding period ALSI TRI 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% FTSE/JSE All Share Weighted Index (SWIX) Returns (dividends re-invested) End of December % Holding period SWIX TRI 3

4 Jun/95 Jun/96 Jun/97 Jun/98 Jun/99 Jun/00 Jun/01 Jun/02 Jun/03 Jun/04 Jun/05 Jun/06 Jun/07 Jun/08 Jun/09 Jun/10 Jun/11 Jun/12 Jun/13 Jun/14 Jun/15 Jun/16 Log scale FTSE/JSE All Share Index Total return Index (dividends re-invested) June December , ,

5 31 December 2016 Performance J200T J210T J212T J211T J253T over Top40 Resi 10 Fini 15 Indi 25 Property 1 Month 0.5% -3.7% 3.2% 1.8% 4.2% 3 Months -3.0% -1.1% 3.2% -5.4% 1.3% 6 Months -3.2% 7.0% 4.6% -8.2% 0.5% 12 Months -1.6% 28.9% 3.6% -8.5% 10.2% 24 Months * 2.9% -9.4% 2.3% 3.9% 9.1% 36 Months * 4.9% -11.3% 10.2% 8.1% 14.6% 48 Months * 9.1% -8.0% 12.5% 15.0% 13.1% 60 Months * 12.3% -5.9% 17.2% 20.4% 17.3% 84 Months * 11.5% -3.6% 15.3% 19.8% 17.7% 120 Months * 9.9% -0.3% 9.9% 16.4% 15.8% Since January % 28.9% 3.6% -8.5% 10.2% * Annualised Returns Top40 = Resi10 = Top 40 shares by market capitalisation Top 10 resources sector shares by market capitalisation Fini = Top 15 financial sector shares by market capitalisation Indi = Top 25 industrial sector shares by market capitalisation Property = SA listed property 5

6 Mar/03 Mar/04 Mar/05 Mar/06 Mar/07 Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Return Dec/06 Dec/07 Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Cumulative Return FTSE/JSE Total Return Indices Cumulative Return December December Date Top40 Resi 10 Fini 15 Indi 25 Property 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% FTSE/JSE Total Return Indices 12-month Rolling Returns March December 2016 Date Resi 10 Fini 15 Indi 25 Property 6

7 May/98 May/99 May/00 May/01 May/02 May/03 May/04 May/05 May/06 May/07 May/08 May/09 May/10 May/11 May/12 May/13 May/14 May/15 May/16 Quarterly Volatility Mar/98 Mar/99 Mar/00 Mar/01 Mar/02 Mar/03 Mar/04 Mar/05 Mar/06 Mar/07 Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Absolute performance Absolute return differences relative to overall market return on a monthly basis between best and worst performing sectors December 2016 RESI FINI INDI FINI S RESI RESI Best performing sector Worst performing sector Cross-sectional Volatility on a quarterly basis Resources, Industrial, Financial and Property sectors December % 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 7

8 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Correlation Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Correlation Correlations of sector performances with market index performances Based on 12-month rolling returns December % 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% % RESI Cor FINI Cor INDI Cor SAPY Cor Cross-correlations of sectors Based on 12-month rolling returns December % 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% % FINI/RESI INDI/RESI FINI/INDI INDI/SAPY 8

9 Jan/95 Jan/96 Jan/97 Jan/98 Jan/99 Jan/00 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 PE Multiple 2. Market Indicators Price / Earnings Ratio - The most common valuation ratio; current share price relative to the historical earnings per share (EPS). - How accurate is the market in predicting future earnings; i.e. how well is the price you pay today compensating you for future earnings? - An alternative and perhaps more useful indicator; share price relative to normalised earnings per share whereby historical earnings, adjusted for inflation, are smoothed out over rolling 7- year and 10-year periods The P/E Rating of the FTSE/JSE All Share Index January December Year 9

10 Jan/96 Jan/97 Jan/98 Jan/99 Jan/00 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/ Historical Forward P/E since 1995 End of December 2016 FPE Average 10

11 Jan/96 Jan/97 Jan/98 Jan/99 Jan/00 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Forward P/E 12-month return Relationship between historical Fwd P/E and subsequent 12-month return since 1995 December % 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0% -45.0% -50.0% F P/E (lhs) Subsequent one-year return (rhs) 11

12 Jan/67 Jan/70 Jan/73 Jan/76 Jan/79 Jan/82 Jan/85 Jan/88 Jan/91 Jan/94 Jan/97 Jan/00 Jan/03 Jan/06 Jan/09 Jan/12 Jan/15 Trailing P/E multiple Shiller's P/E [CAPE7] (Real ALSI Index divided by 7-year normalised real earnings) December Period Source: JSE, SARB, DRW Investment Research 12

13 Jan/70 Jan/73 Jan/76 Jan/79 Jan/82 Jan/85 Jan/88 Jan/91 Jan/94 Jan/97 Jan/00 Jan/03 Jan/06 Jan/09 Jan/12 Jan/15 Trailing P/E multiple Shiller's P/E [CAPE10] (Real ALSI Index divided by 10-year normalised real earnings) December Period 13

14 Jan/60 Jan/64 Jan/68 Jan/72 Jan/76 Jan/80 Jan/84 Jan/88 Jan/92 Jan/96 Jan/00 Jan/04 Jan/08 Jan/12 Jan/16 Real Stock Market Price Index Real Stock Market Dividends Index Dividend Growth Stock prices follow dividend growth; sometimes price lags dividend growth typically a value proposition but when prices are running far ahead of dividend growth one should take a more cautious stance. 70, , , , , , , Stock Index Price and Dividend growth End of December , , , , , , Real Price Real Dividends Source: JSE, SARB, DRW Investment Research 14

15 Jan/60 Jan/64 Jan/68 Jan/72 Jan/76 Jan/80 Jan/84 Jan/88 Jan/92 Jan/96 Jan/00 Jan/04 Jan/08 Jan/12 Jan/16 Real Stock Market Price Index Real Stock Market Earnings Index Earnings Growth A primary component of equity returns in the long run that is linked to the overall growth in the economy, which in turn is affected by inflation rate (and interest rate) trends. 70, , , , , , , Stock Index Price and Earnings growth End of December ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Real Price Real Earnings Source: JSE, SARB, DRW Investment Research 15

16 Jan/61 Jan/64 Jan/67 Jan/70 Jan/73 Jan/76 Jan/79 Jan/82 Jan/85 Jan/88 Jan/91 Jan/94 Jan/97 Jan/00 Jan/03 Jan/06 Jan/09 Jan/12 Jan/15 Real Earnings Growth JSE ALSI January December % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Real Earnings Growth LT Average 16

17 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Ratio 10y Bond Yield to Dividend Yield Equity Income Yield versus Long-term Bond Yield The dividend and earnings yield of the stock market are compared with the long-term (10-year) bond yield. The spread (difference) between the respective yields is used to gauge the relative expensiveness of the equity market versus the bond market Equities and Bond Yields Relative Valuation January December 2016 Equities over-valued/ Bonds under-valued Equities under-valued/ Bonds over-valued Date 17

18 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Yield Spread (Bonds - Earnings Yield) 12.0% 10.0% Yield Spread Equities vs Bonds Relative Valuation January December 2016 Equities over-valued/ 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Equities under-valued/ Date 18

19 Volatility (based on a rolling 12-month period) Jul/96 Jul/97 Jul/98 Jul/99 Jul/00 Jul/01 Jul/02 Jul/03 Jul/04 Jul/05 Jul/06 Jul/07 Jul/08 Jul/09 Jul/10 Jul/11 Jul/12 Jul/13 Jul/14 Jul/15 Jul/16 12-month stock market rolling return Stock Market Volatility The short-term volatility trend is calculated by the annualised standard deviation of the daily returns of the FTSE JSE All Share index. The long-term volatility trend is calculated by the annualised standard deviation of the monthly returns of the FTSE JSE All Share index. 45.0% Stock Market Returns & Volatility Measured on a daily basis June December % 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% Date Annual market return (rhs) Volatility (lhs) 19

20 Percentage of trading days Percentage of trading days 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Daily movement in JSE ALSI Index prices Abolute changes (+/-) Trading days June 1995 to December 2016 More than 3% More than 2% More than 1% Less than 1% 100% 90% Movement in daily prices FTSE JSE ALSI index Absolute changes (+/-) June December % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% More than 3% More than 2% More than 1% Less than 1% Past month Past year Long-term average 20

21 Jan/63 Jan/66 Jan/69 Jan/72 Jan/75 Jan/78 Jan/81 Jan/84 Jan/87 Jan/90 Jan/93 Jan/96 Jan/99 Jan/02 Jan/05 Jan/08 Jan/11 Jan/14 Ann Std Deviation (rolling 36-month volatility) 35.00% Stock Market Volatility Long-term Trend January December % 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Volatility Median Volatility Statistics: Statistics Bottom Half Volatility Top Half Volatility Percentage of months with positive return 86% 64% Percentage of months with negative return 14% 36% Average Annual Return across all periods 19.3% 11.5% Positive periods only, Average Annual Return 24.1% 27.4% Negative periods only, Average Annual Return -9.4% -16.8% 21

22 Jun/05 Dec/05 Jun/06 Dec/06 Jun/07 Dec/07 Jun/08 Dec/08 Jun/09 Dec/09 Jun/10 Dec/10 Jun/11 Dec/11 Jun/12 Dec/12 Jun/13 Dec/13 Jun/14 Dec/14 Jun/15 Dec/15 Jun/16 Dec/16 Moving Averages (MA) The relative price movement of 55-day and 233-day MAs; crossovers of these trendlines often indicate buy or sell opportunities. For example, if the 55-day trendline breaks out above the 233-day trendline it represents a bullish market period or if the 55-day trends below the 233-day it represents a bearish market period. 60,000 Moving Averages of FTSE/JSE All Share Index June December ,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 ALSI 55-day MA 233-day MA 22

23 Asset Class Returns Historical returns of the major asset classes YEAR EQUITIES PROPERTIES BONDS CASH % 49% 22% 14% % 5% 16% 15% % 21% 14% 14% % 1% 28% 12% % 16% 32% 11% % 17% -9% 10% % 10% 30% 11% % -9% 7% 12% % 13% 29% 17% % -4% 5% 17% % 44% 30% 16% % 26% 20% 11% % 6% 18% 11% % 18% 16% 12% % 37% 18% 12% % 41% 14% 8% % 50% 11% 8% % 28% 5% 8% % 27% 4% 9% % -5% 17% 12% % 14% -1% 9% % 30% 15% 7% % 9% 9% 6% % 36% 16% 5% % 8% 1% 5% % 27% 10% 6% % 8% -4% 6% Average Equities Properties Bonds Cash Ann Return 16.0% 18.3% 13.4% 10.4% Ann Volatility 21.7% 16.4% 10.8% 3.6% Source: DRW Investment Research 23

24 YEAR BEST 2ND 3RD WORST 1989 EQUITIES PROPERTIES BONDS CASH 1990 BONDS CASH PROPERTIES EQUITIES 1991 EQUITIES PROPERTIES BONDS CASH 1992 BONDS CASH PROPERTIES EQUITIES 1993 EQUITIES BONDS PROPERTIES CASH 1994 EQUITIES PROPERTIES CASH BONDS 1995 BONDS CASH PROPERTIES EQUITIES 1996 CASH EQUITIES BONDS PROPERTIES 1997 BONDS CASH PROPERTIES EQUITIES 1998 CASH BONDS PROPERTIES EQUITIES 1999 EQUITIES PROPERTIES BONDS CASH 2000 PROPERTIES BONDS CASH EQUITIES 2001 EQUITIES BONDS CASH PROPERTIES 2002 PROPERTIES BONDS CASH EQUITIES 2003 PROPERTIES BONDS EQUITIES CASH 2004 PROPERTIES EQUITIES BONDS CASH 2005 PROPERTIES EQUITIES BONDS CASH 2006 EQUITIES PROPERTIES CASH BONDS 2007 PROPERTIES EQUITIES CASH BONDS 2008 BONDS CASH PROPERTIES EQUITIES 2009 EQUITIES PROPERTIES CASH BONDS 2010 PROPERTIES EQUITIES BONDS CASH 2011 BONDS PROPERTIES CASH EQUITIES 2012 PROPERTIES EQUITIES BONDS CASH 2013 EQUITIES PROPERTIES CASH BONDS 2014 PROPERTIES EQUITIES BONDS CASH 2015 PROPERTIES CASH EQUITIES BONDS Source: DRW Investment Research 24

25 Heat Map: Real returns from equities over time Based on real (after-inflation) annual equity returns from 1960 to 2015 Start of investment = vertical axis Investment period = horizontal axis Source: DRW Investment Research

26 Interpretation of graph: Negative real returns = red areas 0-5% real returns = light-brown areas 5-10% real returns = light-green areas >10% real returns = dark-green areas Returns from equity investing are certainly volatile over short-term periods and may easily yield negative outcomes, as shown by the red-coloured areas on the chart. Yet, long-term equity investors historically experienced most of the time more than 5% real return per annum, as depicted by the light and dark green shaded areas on the chart. 26

27 Yield Yield Curve (Bond Exchange of South Africa) The yield curve is derived from the yields of government bonds with different maturities traded on the Bond Exchange of South Africa Yield Curve Bond Exchange of South Africa December Term Structure 1 Month (years ago to duration) 3 mnths ago 6 mnths ago One year ago

28 Yield (per annum) Changes in interest rates of different term maturities Bond Exchange of South Africa December 2016 Date Call One-year 5-year 10-year 28

29 Jan/98 Jan/99 Jan/00 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Y-o-Y change Inflation, Money Supply and Credit Data may reflect a one-month lag to current period CPI January November % 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Period Source: Statistics SA, DRW Investment Research 29

30 Aug/03 Feb/04 Aug/04 Feb/05 Aug/05 Feb/06 Aug/06 Feb/07 Aug/07 Feb/08 Aug/08 Feb/09 Aug/09 Feb/10 Aug/10 Feb/11 Aug/11 Feb/12 Aug/12 Feb/13 Aug/13 Feb/14 Aug/14 Feb/15 Aug/15 Feb/16 Aug/16 Y-o-Y change CPI year-on-year 14.0% Major Categories of Inflation Basket Year-on-year changes November % 10.0% 8.0% 11.6% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 5.4% 6.4% Food Housing Transport Source: Statistics SA, DRW Investment Research 30.0% M3 End of November % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: SARB, DRW Investment Research 30

31 Jul/03 Jan/04 Jul/04 Jan/05 Jul/05 Jan/06 Jul/06 Jan/07 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08 Jan/09 Jul/09 Jan/10 Jul/10 Jan/11 Jul/11 Jan/12 Jul/12 Jan/13 Jul/13 Jan/14 Jul/14 Jan/15 Jul/15 Jan/16 Jul/16 Y-o-Y change Private Sector Credit Extension End of November % 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Source: SARB, DRW Investment Research 31

32 Jan/04 Jul/04 Jan/05 Jul/05 Jan/06 Jul/06 Jan/07 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08 Jan/09 Jul/09 Jan/10 Jul/10 Jan/11 Jul/11 Jan/12 Jul/12 Jan/13 Jul/13 Jan/14 Jul/14 Jan/15 Jul/15 Jan/16 Jul/16 R Billions Foreign Portfolio Flows Foreign portfolio flows (the purchasing and selling of shares and bonds by non-residents) directly influence the direction of the rand exchange rate and overall investor sentiment on the local bourse. 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-60,000 NET PURCHASING OF SHARES AND B ONDS BY NON-RESIDENTS END OF NOVEMBER 2016 MONTHLY NET PURCHASES & SIX -MONTH TRENDLINE Source: SARB, DRW Investment Research Date 32

33 R millions Net purchasing of shares and bonds by non-residents November 2016 The year-to-date and previous years 150, ,000 50, , , , , Source: SARB, DRW Investment Research Shares Bonds Net flow 33

34 Index Return 3. Return expectations Equity returns, at least over the shorter term are predominantly driven by changes in market ratings (P/E ratio) and earnings growth expectations. The most likely market returns over the next twelve months are depicted below based on possible combinations of earnings growth and market ratings. Possible ALSI Index Return One year forward expectations as at end of December % 0% -10% -20% -30% P/E = 18 P/E = 16 P/E = 14 P/E = 12-40% -50% -60% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Current index value = 50,653 Current P/E = 22.8 Earnings Growth 34

35 ALSI Index Value 55,000 Possible ALSI Index Values One year forward expectations as at end of December ,000 45,000 P/E = 18 P/E = 16 40,000 P/E = 14 35,000 P/E = 12 30,000 25,000 20,000-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Current index value = 50,653 Current P/E = 22.8 Earnings Growth 35

36 Disclaimer: Please note that all the material, opinions and views herein do not constitute investment advice, but are published primarily for information purposes. The author accepts no responsibility for investors using the information as investment advice. Please consult an authorised investment advisor. Unless otherwise stated, the author is the sole proprietor of this publication and its content. No quotations from or references to this publication are allowed without prior approval. 36