Key market performance drivers. Monthly charts to 31 March 2018

Transcription

1 Key market performance drivers Monthly charts to 31 March 2018

2 Market concentration One-year returns ending: March-18 February-18 January-18 NASPERS NASPERS NASPERS STANDARD BANK GROUP LTD STANDARD BANK GP STANDARD BANK GP FIRSTRAND LTD FIRSTRAND FIRSTRAND ANGLO AMERICAN PLC ANGLO SANLAM Top 5 MR PRICE GROUP LTD 64% Top 5 SANLAM 70% Top 5 MR PRICE 71% Top 6 BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP LTD 69% Top 6 MR PRICE 73% Top 6 BIDVEST 74% SANLAM LTD BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP ANGLO SHOPRITE HOLDINGS LTD SHOPRIT SHOPRIT BIDVEST GROUP LTD BIDVEST IMPERIAL Top 10 OLD MUTUAL PLC 82% Top 10 SASOL 82% Top 10 DISCOVERY LIMITED 83% FOSCHINI GROUP LTD MTN GROUP MTN GROUP DISCOVERY LTD DISCOVERY LIMITED SASOL CLICKS GROUP LTD OLDMUTUAL BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP RMB HOLDINGS LTD RMBH BARWORLD IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LTD IMPERIAL OLDMUTUAL BHP BILLITON PLC BARWORLD CLICKS GROUP LTD BARLOWORLD LTD BHPBILL EXXARO SASOL LTD FOSCHINI GROUP (THE) KUMBA IRON ORE NEDBANK GROUP LTD GROWTHPOINT PROPS BID CORPORATION LIMITED Top 20 GROWTHPOINT PROPS 98% Top 20 VODACOM 95% Top 20 RMBH 95% Remaining (Positive) 16% Remaining (Positive) 14% Remaining (Positive) 13% Negative (70 Shares) -14% Negative (72 Shares) -9% Negative (64 Shares) -8% Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments Market-cap weighted returns: 10 shares contributed 82% to the return of the SWIX, while 20 shares contributed 98%

3 Active-index analysis One-year rolling active to February* % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Active outperforms Active underperforms 950% 850% 750% 650% 550% 450% 350% 250% 150% 50% -15% Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17-50% Active Equity managers - SWIX (12m rolling) Active Equity Managers Cumulative SWIX Cumulative The median of the active equity investment managers underperformed the Capped SWIX Source: Alexander Forbes SA Equity Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data

4 Active versus tracker: Cash One-year rolling average to February* % 10% 5% 0% Active outperforms Active underperforms 175% 155% 135% 115% 95% 75% 55% 35% 15% -5% -5% Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17-25% Active Cash managers - STeFI (12m rolling) Active Cash Managers Cumulative STeFI Cumulative The median of the active money market investment managers outperformed the SteFI Source: Alexander Forbes SA Money Market Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data

5 Active versus tracker: Bonds One-year rolling average to February* % 250% 10% Active outperforms 200% 5% 150% 0% 100% -5% -10% Active underperforms 50% 0% -15% Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17-50% Active Bond managers - ALBI (12m rolling) Active Bond Managers Cumulative ALBI Cumulative The median of the active bond investment managers outperformed the ALBI Source: Alexander Forbes SA Bond Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data

6 Active versus tracker: Property One-year rolling average to February* % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Active outperforms Active underperforms 1550% 1350% 1150% 950% 750% 550% 350% 150% -15% -50% Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Active Property managers - SAPY (12m rolling) Active Property Managers Cumulative SAPY Cumulative The median of the active property investment managers outperformed the SAPY Source: Alexander Forbes SA Property Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data

7 Style returns for South Africa Data to February 2018 ZAR Styles One month to Feb 2018 Three months to Feb One year to Feb Three years to Feb 2018 Five years to Feb 2018 Ten years to Feb 2018 Twenty years to Feb 2018 Book to Price Dividend Yield Value Earnings Yield Cash Flow Yield Sales to Price ROE ROIC LT Quality Income to Sales Low market beta Low Debt/Equity EBIT Margin Stability Growth Momentum Earnings Growth Sales Growth M Earning Growth FY1 Earnings Revisions Short Term Momentum Medium Term Momentum Size Size The Size (large cap), Value and Momentum factors had strong returns in the shorter term. The Size and Momentum factors had strong returns for the year. Source: FactSet, Momentum Global Investment Management and Momentum Investments

8 MSCI developed and emerging markets One year to March One year to March 2018 Developed markets = 11.6% Emerging markets = 22.4% Three months to March 2018 Developed markets = -1.8% Emerging markets = 1.1% Capped SWIX = -0.8% 31-Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar-18 MSCI Developed Markets (USD) MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) Capped SWIX (USD) Source: INET BFA, MSCI and Momentum Investments

9 SA 10-year bond yields Five years to March Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 SA 10 year bond yield

10 Yield of R197 (inflation-linked bond) May 2001 to March May-01 May-03 May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 R 197

11 FTSE/JSE sectors One year to March One year to March 2018 Resources = 10.4% Financials = 17.6% Three months to March Resources = -3.8% Financials = -3.6% 80 Industrials = -8.0% 01-Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar-18 Resources Financials Industrials

12 50% FTSE/JSE sectors Rolling three years to March % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Resources Financials Industrials

13 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed Three months to March Non-life Insurance Financials 24.4% 19 Support Services Industrials -3.4% 2 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication 10.0% 20 Personal Goods Consumer Goods -4.5% 3 General Retailers Consumer Services 9.2% 21 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication -5.9% 4 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials 8.0% 22 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care -6.9% 5 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods 7.0% 23 Food Producers Consumer Goods -8.2% 6 Construction & Materials Industrials 6.1% 24 Industrial Transportation Industrials -10.9% 7 Banks Financials 4.2% 25 Gold Mining Mining -13.0% 8 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care 2.7% 26 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials -13.4% 9 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services 2.1% 27 Equity Investment Instruments Financials -14.7% 10 Life Insurance Financials 1.2% 28 Tobacco Consumer Goods -15.0% 11 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 0.4% 29 Media Consumer Services -16.2% 12 General Mining Mining 0.1% 30 Platinum Mining Mining -21.4% 13 General Industrials Industrials -0.3% 31 Industrial Metals Basic Materials -22.4% 14 Industrial Engineering Industrials -1.1% 32 Coal Mining Mining -26.7% 15 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials -2.3% 33 Household Goods Consumer Goods -29.0% 16 General Financial Financials -2.4% 34 Software & Computer Services Technology -30.5% 17 Beverages Consumer Goods -3.0% 35 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials -31.2% 18 Chemicals Basic Materials -3.3% Key Resources Financials Industrials Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments

14 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed One year to March Banks Financials 45.3% 19 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials -1.4% 2 Industrial Metals Basic Materials 35.1% 20 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care -1.9% 3 Non-life Insurance Financials 32.2% 21 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care -6.5% 4 General Retailers Consumer Services 25.6% 22 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -6.5% 5 General Mining Mining 25.5% 23 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials -6.6% 6 Life Insurance Financials 25.4% 24 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials -8.9% 7 Media Consumer Services 25.2% 25 Support Services Industrials -8.9% 8 Industrial Transportation Industrials 22.5% 26 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -10.8% 9 General Industrials Industrials 20.6% 27 Industrial Engineering Industrials -11.2% 10 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 20.4% 28 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services -16.2% 11 Coal Mining Mining 7.4% 29 Gold Mining Mining -17.3% 12 Chemicals Basic Materials 6.6% 30 Tobacco Consumer Goods -18.4% 13 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication 3.1% 31 Equity Investment Instruments Financials -21.2% 14 Personal Goods Consumer Goods 2.8% 32 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication -24.3% 15 Construction & Materials Industrials 1.9% 33 Platinum Mining Mining -27.8% 16 Beverages Consumer Goods 1.2% 34 Software & Computer Services Technology -49.3% Key Resources Financials Industrials 17 General Financial Financials 0.2% 35 Household Goods Consumer Goods -94.9% 18 Food Producers Consumer Goods -0.8% Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments

15 FTSE/JSE market caps One year to March 2018 One year to March 2018 SWIX 40 = 11.7% Mid Cap = 2.3% Three months to March 2018 SWIX 40 = -7.2% Mid Cap = -3.6% Small Cap = -1.3% Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar SWIX 40 Mid Cap Small Cap

16 Local asset classes Three months to March Jan Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar % 4.0% 1.8% -5.1% -19.6% Capped SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB

17 Global asset classes Three months to March % -4.5% -6.1% -7.2% -8.0% Jan Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar-18 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR

18 120 Local asset classes One year to March % % 7.8% 7.4% 4.0% % Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar-18 Capped SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI * CPI lagged by one month due to availability of data

19 Global asset classes One year to March % -2.6% -4.4% -10.2% -16.9% Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar-18 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR

20 Local asset classes Five years to March % % 7.1% 6.6% 5.4% 5.3% Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI * CPI lagged by one month due to availability of data

21 Global asset classes Five years to March % 10.3% % 6.4% 5.1% 90 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR

22 Asset classes Ten years to March % 11.1% 9.6% 8.7% 7.7% 7.0% 6.0% 5.8% 3.9% 60 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Global Bonds SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB CPI Global Equity For the 10-year period to March, the FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property continued to outperform, followed by the SWIX and ALBI * CPI lagged by one month due to availability of data

23 Exchange rates One year to March Three months to March 2018: Sterling-Rand: -0.8% Euro-Rand: -1.9% Dollar-Rand: -4.5% 20 Exchange rate % 2.0% % Apr Jun Aug Sep Nov Jan Mar-18 Sterling-Rand Euro-Rand Dollar-Rand

24 80% Gold (rands), FTSE/JSE SWIX, CPI, SteFI One-year rolling returns to March % 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Gold (ZAR) CPI SteFI SWIX * CPI lagged by one month due to availability of data

25 115 Commodities Three months to March % 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% % -9.1% -10.5% Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar-18 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms

26 Commodities One year to March % 21.6% 14.3% 6.4% 6.1% -1.6% -19.2% Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar-18 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms

27 SAVI-VIX Since February 2007 to March Financial / credit European debt crisis (Sovereign debt concerns) S&P downgrade US debt Uncertainty around US rate hikes Brexit Higher than expected US inflation SAVI VIX Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 5 SAVI VIX

28 Foreign transactions 2014 to 2018 R(m) Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan Foreign Transactions Bonds Foreign Transactions Equities Rand/USDollar Exchange Rate

29 Cumulative foreign transaction equities 2013 to December January February March April May June July August September October November December

30 Cumulative foreign transaction bonds 2013 to December January February March April May June July August September October November December

31 Thank you

32 Disclaimer