How does the increasing global uncertainty affect Latin American ratings?
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1 How does the increasing global uncertainty affect Latin American ratings? Sebastián Briozzo Sovereign Ratings, Standard and Poor s Santiago de Chile, October 2011 Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Agenda Review of Standard and Poor s Sovereign Methodology Latin America facing increasing international volatility Q&A 2.
3 Sovereign Rating Reflects the sovereign government s ability and willingness to service its debt in full and on time Is a forward looking estimate of default probability Is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security or a prediction of the stability or volatility of a security price It's not an endorsement or a condemnation of a set of governmental policies, except to the extent that they have an impact on ability to service debt. Addresses the relative credit standing of governments vs. other issuers globally. Is not a Country Rating 3.
4 Sovereign Ratings Over Time 4.
5 Sovereign Ratings Over Time 5.
6 Sovereign Ratings Criteria Institutional effectiveness and political risks Economic structure and growth prospects External liquidity and international investment position Fiscal performance and flexibility, as well as debt burden Monetary flexibility 6.
7 Sovereign Ratings Criteria 7.
8 Latin American Sovereign Ratings 8.
9 Latin American Facing Global Financial Instability The region has benefited from favorable terms of trade Improving economic management contributed to anchor stability in the region by reducing main vulnerabilities. External debt levels have declined extensively and fiscal vulnerabilities have moderated. Still, real economic links could still affect economic activity in Latin America. 9.
10 Sovereign Ratings: Latin America & Caribbean (October 2011) Chile A+/AA Aruba A-/A- Bahamas BBB+/BBB+ Trinidad & Tobago A/A México BBB/A- Peru BBB/BBB+ Brasil BBB-/BBB+ Panamá BBB-/BBB- Montserrat BBB-/BBB- Barbados BBB-/BBB- Colombia BBB-/BBB+ Uruguay BB+/BB+ Costa Rica BB/BB+ Guatemala BB/BB+ El Salvador BB-/BB- Suriname BB-/BB- Paraguay BB-/BB- Bolivia B+/B+ Venezuela B+/B+ Argentina B/B Honduras B/B República Dominicana B+/B+ Belize B-/B- Granada B-/B- Jamaica B-/B- Ecuador B-/B- Outlook/CreditWatch: Stable, Positive, Negative Rating: Foreign Currency / Local currency 10.
11 Latin American Sovereigns: Main Indicators Average Change in Terms of Trade (%) Venezuela Chile Peru Bolivia Colombia Argentina Ecuador Brazil LatAm & Carib* Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Dominican Rep. Guatemala El Salvador Panama Honduras Costa Rica Source: ECLA (Economic Commision for Latin America) 11.
12 External positions contribute to resiliency (%) Net External Debt / Current Account Receipts Latin America Weighted Average (% weighted by GDP share) e 2012-f 2013-f 'BBB' Median (2010) 'BBB' Median (2011-f) Gross External Financing Requirement / Usable Reserves Latin America Weighted Average (% weighted by GDP share) (%) f 2012-f 2013-f 'BBB' Median (2010) Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 'BBB' Median (2011-f) 12.
13 Significant accumulation of international reserves International Reserves (Billions US$) (Sum Total of Latin American Countries) f 2012-f 2013-f Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 13.
14 Fiscal positions globally favorable, but deficits still higher pre-crisis (%) Net General Government Debt / GDP Latin America Weighted Average (% weighted by GDP share) f 2012-f 2013-f 'BBB' Median (2010) 'BBB' Median (2011-f) General Government Balance (Deficit) / GDP Latin America Weighted Average (% weighted by GDP share) 2002 (%) f 2012-f 2013-f Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 'BBB' Median (2010) -3.1 'BBB' Median (2011-f)
15 Reduced Latin American growth to below 4% in 2012 (%) Latin American Real GDP-Weighted Growth (% chg, weighted by GDP share) LatAm f f Average real weighted GDP growth (3.7%) f Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 15.
16 Weaker Global Growth Outlook Global Growth Outlook Real GDP Growth (%) f 2012-f 0 Latin America China India Eurozone and UK United States Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 16.
17 Global Distribution of GDP Source: Eswar S. Prasad; Role Reversal in Global Finance, Global Economy and Development at Brookings 17.
18 Not yet! 18.
19 Analytic services and products provided by Standard & Poor s are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of each analytic process. Standard & Poor s has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during Permission each analytic to reprint process. or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. 19.
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