Sovereign Risk Indicators

Transcription

1 Primary Credit Analyst: Alexander Petrov, London (44) ; Secondary Contacts: Santiago Cajal, Mexico City; Remy Carasse, Dubai (971) ; Table Of Contents Economic Data Government Data Balance-Of-Payments Data External Balance Sheet Glossary Of Terms OCTOBER 12,

2 (Editor's Note: In the original version of this commentary, some figures for investment/gdp or other DC claims on resident non-government sector/gdp were incorrectly stated in the Economic Data table for Jersey, Guernsey, Liechtenstein, Cook Islands, and Papua New Guinea. A corrected version follows.) "Sovereign Risk Indicators" contains comparative statistics for rated sovereigns. Tables 1-4 include economic measures, fiscal and debt indicators, balance-of-payments information, and external balance sheet data. To view the full data set, please click on the "View Expanded Table" tab at the top of each table. A glossary at the end of this article explains the reported concepts. An interactive version of the Sovereign Risk Indicators can be found at We publish our Sovereign Risk Indicators quarterly. The next edition of the sovereign risk indicators will be published on Dec. 14, Economic Data Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Nominal GDP (bil. US$) GDP per capita (US$) Real GDP growth (%) Real GDP per capita growth (%) Investment/ CPI growth (%) Unemployment rate (% of workforce) Other DC claims on resident non-govt. sector growth (%) Other DC claims on resident non-govt. sector / LT FC rating 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e Abu Dhabi AA , (4.4) N/A N/A N/A Albania B , Andorra BBB , N/A (0.7) 3.9 (1.0) Angola B , Argentina SD , (0.6) Aruba BBB , Australia AAA 1, , Austria AA , Azerbaijan BBB , Bahamas BBB , (0.1) Bahrain BBB , (0.3) Bangladesh BB , Barbados B , Belarus B ,166 (3.8) (3.6) Belgium AA , Belize B , N/A Bermuda A , (47.7) Bolivia BB , OCTOBER 12,

3 Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data (cont.) Bosnia and Herzegovina B , Botswana A , Brazil BB+ 1, ,552 (2.5) (3.3) Bulgaria BB , (1.0) Burkina Faso B N/A Cameroon B , N/A Canada AAA 1, , (0.1) Cape Verde B 1.7 3, Chile AA , China AA- 10, , Colombia BBB , Congo B , N/A Congo, D.R. B Cook Islands B ,816 (4.3) 0.9 N/A 2.9 N/A (2.0) 66.1 Costa Rica BB , Croatia BB , Curacao A ,994 (0.1) (1.0) Cyprus BB , (1.7) 16.0 (4.0) Czech Republic AA , Denmark AAA , Dominican Republic BB , Ecuador B , (1.1) Egypt B , El Salvador B , Estonia AA , Ethiopia B N/A Fiji B , N/A Finland AA , (0.2) France AA 2, , Gabon B , N/A Georgia BB , Germany AAA 3, , Ghana B , Greece CCC ,707 (1.0) (1.0) 10.8 (0.3) 27.0 (1.5) Guatemala BB , Guernsey AA , N/A N/A N/A Honduras B , Hong Kong AAA , Hungary BB , (0.3) Iceland BBB , OCTOBER 12,

4 Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data (cont.) India BBB- 2, , N/A Indonesia BB , Iraq B , (2.5) N/A Ireland A , (3.0) Israel A , Italy BBB- 1, , (0.1) Jamaica B , Japan A+ 4, ,429 (0.9) (0.8) Jersey AA , N/A N/A N/A Jordan BB , Kazakhstan BBB , (12.0) 33.8 Kenya B , N/A Korea AA- 1, , Kuwait AA , (1.9) Latvia A , (2.0) 53.4 Lebanon B , (1.9) Liechtenstein AAA , (0.1) N/A (1.2) Lithuania A , (0.3) Luxembourg AAA , Macedonia BB , Malaysia A , Malta BBB , Mexico BBB+ 1, , Mongolia B , Montenegro B , Montserrat BBB , N/A Morocco BBB , Mozambique B N/A Netherlands AA , New Zealand AA , Nigeria B , Norway AAA , Oman A , (0.3) N/A Pakistan B , Panama BBB , Papua New Guinea B , N/A 5.0 N/A Paraguay BB , Peru BBB , Philippines BBB , Poland A , (0.4) Portugal BB , (2.5) OCTOBER 12,

5 Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data (cont.) Qatar AA , N/A Ras Al Khaimah A , N/A N/A N/A Romania BBB , (0.7) 6.6 (1.0) 31.1 Russia BB+ 1, ,675 (3.6) (3.7) Rwanda B N/A Saudi Arabia AA , (0.1) Senegal B N/A Serbia BB , Sharjah A , N/A 2.4 N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA , (0.2) Slovakia A , Slovenia A , (5.0) 56.1 South Africa BBB , Spain BBB+ 1, , (0.3) 22.4 (3.5) Sri Lanka B , Suriname BB , N/A Sweden AAA , Switzerland AAA , (0.2) 23.0 (1.1) Taiwan AA , (0.5) Thailand BBB , (0.7) Trinidad and Tobago A , (2.0) 40.0 Turkey BB , Turks and Caicos BBB , Uganda B N/A Ukraine SD ,626 (15.0) (14.6) United Kingdom AAA 2, , United States AA+ 17, , Uruguay BBB , Venezuela CCC ,949 (7.0) (8.5) Vietnam BB , Zambia B , N/A LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. DC--Depository corporation. N/A--Not available. N.M.--Not meaningful. e--estimate. f--forecast. Government Data OCTOBER 12,

6 Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: General Government Data Change in GG debt/ Gross GG debt/ Net GG debt/ GG balance/ Primary GG balance/ GG interest expenditure/ revenues (%) GG revenue/ GG expenditure/ LT FC rating 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e Abu Dhabi AA (0.4) 2.1 (305.6) (2.0) (1.9) Albania B (4.6) (1.7) Andorra BBB- (1.5) 39.4 (4.2) Angola B (7.0) (5.6) Argentina SD (4.4) (2.2) Aruba BBB (2.6) Australia AAA (2.9) (1.5) Austria AA (2.2) Azerbaijan BBB (51.6) (8.9) (8.6) Bahamas BBB (2.2) Bahrain BBB (10.5) (8.1) Bangladesh BB (3.4) (1.4) Barbados B (4.7) Belarus B Belgium AA (2.8) Belize B (2.5) Bermuda A (3.8) (3.8) (1.8) Bolivia BB (1.7) (0.9) Bosnia and Herzegovina B (2.6) (1.6) Botswana A- (3.0) 10.4 (12.3) Brazil BB (8.1) Bulgaria BB (2.9) (1.9) Burkina Faso B (2.5) (2.0) Cameroon B (5.4) (4.7) Canada AAA (1.0) Cape Verde B (6.9) (4.4) Chile AA (3.0) (2.2) China AA (1.6) (1.1) Colombia BBB (1.9) Congo B (8.0) (7.6) Congo, D.R. B (1.0) (0.6) Cook Islands B (4.0) (3.4) Costa Rica BB (5.4) (2.6) Croatia BB (5.6) (1.6) Curacao A (45.5) Cyprus BB- (5.1) (0.6) Czech Republic AA (2.0) (0.8) OCTOBER 12,

7 Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: General Government Data (cont.) Denmark AAA (3.1) (2.8) (1.5) Dominican Republic BB (4.2) (1.9) Ecuador B (3.2) (2.1) Egypt B (11.5) (3.2) El Salvador B (3.7) (0.8) Estonia AA (1.2) (0.3) (0.2) Ethiopia B (2.6) (2.2) Fiji B (2.7) Finland AA (3.1) (1.8) France AA (3.8) (1.7) Gabon B (2.0) (0.5) Georgia BB (3.8) (2.8) Germany AAA (0.1) Ghana B (8.0) (0.5) Greece CCC (4.1) (0.3) Guatemala BB (2.0) (0.6) Guernsey AA+ (0.1) 14.5 (100.4) (0.3) Honduras B (4.2) (2.4) Hong Kong AAA (34.6) Hungary BB (2.6) Iceland BBB (1.8) (1.2) India BBB (7.1) (2.1) Indonesia BB (2.3) (1.1) Iraq B (18.0) (17.5) Ireland A (2.8) Israel A (2.8) Italy BBB (2.7) Jamaica B (2.4) (0.3) Japan A (5.8) (2.4) Jersey AA (115.1) (1.7) (1.5) Jordan BB (5.5) (1.6) Kazakhstan BBB (35.4) (3.3) (2.6) Kenya B (8.5) (5.1) Korea AA Kuwait AA (1.4) 5.2 (374.4) Latvia A- (1.8) (1.4) Lebanon B (9.8) (1.2) Liechtenstein AAA (0.1) 0.3 (85.0) Lithuania A (1.5) Luxembourg AAA (13.8) (0.3) Macedonia BB (4.0) (2.8) OCTOBER 12,

8 Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: General Government Data (cont.) Malaysia A (5.5) (3.2) Malta BBB (1.9) Mexico BBB (2.7) (1.0) Mongolia B (8.0) (4.9) Montenegro B (6.4) (4.2) Montserrat BBB (19.6) (4.0) (3.8) Morocco BBB (4.3) (1.4) Mozambique B (7.0) (5.8) Netherlands AA (1.8) (0.4) New Zealand AA (1.9) Nigeria B (3.4) (2.2) Norway AAA (178.2) Oman A (84.6) (4.0) (3.8) Pakistan B (5.2) (0.4) Panama BBB (3.5) (1.5) Papua New Guinea B+ (1.1) (5.9) (4.3) Paraguay BB (2.0) (1.5) Peru BBB (1.6) (0.6) Philippines BBB (0.8) Poland A (3.0) (1.2) Portugal BB+ (2.2) (3.0) Qatar AA (100.7) Ras Al Khaimah A N/A Romania BBB (1.2) Russia BB (4.4) (3.4) Rwanda B (4.0) (2.9) Saudi Arabia AA (138.8) (12.0) (12.0) Senegal B (4.4) (2.3) Serbia BB (5.5) (1.8) Sharjah A (2.3) (1.8) Singapore AAA (84.6) Slovakia A (2.7) (0.9) Slovenia A (2.9) South Africa BBB (3.6) (0.5) Spain BBB (4.5) (1.2) Sri Lanka B (4.4) Suriname BB (5.0) (4.0) Sweden AAA (1.5) (0.7) Switzerland AAA (0.5) Taiwan AA (1.6) (0.7) OCTOBER 12,

9 Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: General Government Data (cont.) Thailand BBB (0.6) Trinidad and Tobago A (3.3) (1.4) Turkey BB (1.5) Turks and Caicos BBB+ (20.1) 2.1 (23.1) Uganda B (4.5) (3.1) Ukraine SD (4.5) United Kingdom AAA (3.4) (0.7) United States AA (3.9) (1.9) Uruguay BBB (3.0) (0.2) Venezuela CCC (4.5) (2.5) Vietnam BB (4.1) (2.5) Zambia B (10.0) (6.9) LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. GG--General government. DC--Depository corporation. N/A--Not available. N.M.--Not meaningful. e--estimate. f--forecast. Balance-Of-Payments Data Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data CARs/ Real exports growth (%) Current account balance/ CARs (%) Current account balance/ Net ext. borrowing/ CARs (%) Usable reserves/ CAPs (months) Gross ext. fin. needs/ CAR + use. res. (%) Net FDI/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e Abu Dhabi AA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Albania B (29.2) (15.3) Andorra BBB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Angola B (20.1) (6.7) (0.5) Argentina SD (7.3) (1.1) Aruba BBB (5.3) (4.8) Australia AAA (15.1) (3.6) Austria AA (2.0) Azerbaijan BBB (1.0) (6.7) Bahamas BBB (9.1) (43.8) (19.0) 38.5 (0.2) Bahrain BBB (2.5) (1.8) (0.2) Bangladesh BB (6.9) Barbados B (5.8) (3.0) (1.1) (0.6) Belarus B (5.0) (5.3) (2.8) Belgium AA (3.8) Belize B N/A (5.1) (3.7) (11.1) OCTOBER 12,

10 Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data (cont.) Bermuda A (162.7) (7.2) Bolivia BB (8.7) (3.6) Bosnia and Herzegovina B (13.9) (7.4) Botswana A (14.3) Brazil BB (26.8) (3.7) Bulgaria BB (3.8) Burkina Faso B (19.5) (6.4) Cameroon B (18.2) (5.2) Canada AAA (10.6) (4.4) Cape Verde B (13.1) (8.9) Chile AA (1.4) (0.5) (1.9) China AA (17.6) Colombia BBB (29.8) (6.2) Congo B (13.0) (9.7) (3.3) Congo, D.R. B (22.6) (9.3) Cook Islands B N/A (30.4) 0.0 N/A 0.0 Costa Rica BB (10.0) (3.9) (3.9) Croatia BB (4.4) Curacao A (0.1) (14.8) (13.5) (7.3) Cyprus BB (5.7) (4.0) (1.1) Czech Republic AA (3.4) Denmark AAA (4.3) (2.3) Dominican Republic BB (2.6) (0.9) (6.1) Ecuador B (7.3) (1.8) Egypt B (16.8) (3.7) El Salvador B (9.3) (4.1) Estonia AA (5.2) Ethiopia B (33.9) (7.1) Fiji B (15.8) (9.3) Finland AA (2.7) (1.2) (1.0) France AA (2.9) (1.2) (0.7) Gabon B (0.3) (7.1) (3.1) Georgia BB (20.0) (21.9) (11.8) Germany AAA (7.1) (1.8) Ghana B (18.8) (8.4) Greece CCC (12.1) Guatemala BB (8.4) (2.9) Guernsey AA+ 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Honduras B (10.4) (7.0) Hong Kong AAA (5.0) OCTOBER 12,

11 Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data (cont.) Hungary BB (7.0) Iceland BBB (13.4) India BBB (0.8) (5.7) (1.4) Indonesia BB (11.4) (2.6) (0.5) Iraq B (22.7) (8.2) Ireland A (10.0) Israel A (3.7) Italy BBB (11.6) (0.5) Jamaica B (5.4) (3.0) (2.2) Japan A (3.3) (1.6) Jersey AA+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Jordan BB (9.5) (6.0) Kazakhstan BBB 34.1 (5.0) (9.7) (3.3) Kenya B (38.5) (9.8) Korea AA (11.9) (1.4) Kuwait AA (16.0) (3.0) Latvia A (2.4) (1.6) (4.4) Lebanon B (41.5) (24.5) Liechtenstein AAA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Lithuania A (4.0) (3.5) Luxembourg AAA (27.2) Macedonia BB (4.6) (3.3) Malaysia A (1.0) (1.0) Malta BBB Mexico BBB (4.2) (1.8) Mongolia B (9.8) (5.1) Montenegro B (30.5) (15.9) Montserrat BBB N/A (54.9) (43.5) Morocco BBB (6.2) (2.8) (0.7) Mozambique B (95.2) (35.7) Netherlands AA (1.5) New Zealand AA (10.7) (3.5) Nigeria B (9.6) (2.0) Norway AAA (8.3) (1.5) Oman A (4.2) (2.7) Pakistan B (2.6) (4.2) (0.8) Panama BBB (15.0) (8.8) (0.4) Papua New Guinea B (16.1) Paraguay BB (2.6) (1.2) (2.2) Peru BBB (19.2) (4.7) Philippines BBB (14.4) OCTOBER 12,

12 Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data (cont.) Poland A (1.7) (0.9) (5.4) Portugal BB (10.0) Qatar AA 55.0 N/A (2.3) (1.0) Ras Al Khaimah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Romania BBB (2.5) (1.2) (4.7) Russia BB (7.4) (1.0) Rwanda B (41.3) (10.7) Saudi Arabia AA (3.2) (1.5) Senegal B (15.2) (7.0) Serbia BB (8.3) (4.9) Sharjah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA (9.6) Slovakia A (2.8) Slovenia A (8.1) South Africa BBB (12.8) (4.3) Spain BBB (8.4) Sri Lanka B (6.8) (2.0) Suriname BB N/A (15.6) (6.6) Sweden AAA (2.8) (2.5) Switzerland AAA (6.8) (5.0) Taiwan AA (10.2) (3.0) Thailand BBB (5.0) Trinidad and Tobago A (10.0) Turkey BB (16.5) (4.8) Turks and Caicos BBB+ N/A 6.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Uganda B (38.3) (9.4) Ukraine SD 72.0 (8.0) (0.7) (0.5) United Kingdom AAA (12.4) (5.0) United States AA (12.6) (2.3) Uruguay BBB (17.1) (4.2) (5.1) Venezuela CCC (9.2) (0.8) Vietnam BB (11.2) Zambia B (10.7) (4.8) (1.1) LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. DC--Depository corporation. N/A--Not available. CARs--Current account receipts. CAP--Current account payments. e--estimate. f--forecast. OCTOBER 12,

13 External Balance Sheet Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. liabilities / CARs (%) Gross ext. debt / CARs (%) Gross public sector ext. debt / CARs (%) Net ext. debt / CARs (%) Narrow net ext. debt / CARs (%) Net investment payments / CARs (%) Net interest payments / CAR (%) Usable Reserves (US$ mil.) LT FC rating 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e 2015e Abu Dhabi AA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Albania B (1.2) 0.0 2,992 Andorra BBB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Angola B+ (4.1) ,957 Argentina SD (103.1) (85.0) ,906 Aruba BBB Australia AAA ,632 Austria AA+ (10.9) ,939 Azerbaijan BBB- (84.3) (123.5) (114.5) 7.8 (1.2) 7,691 Bahamas BBB (87) Bahrain BBB- (39.0) (94.9) (90.7) 21.6 (2.6) 4,483 Bangladesh BB ,538 Barbados B (158) Belarus B ,154 Belgium AA (52.9) (31.6) 68.2 (2.4) (1.2) 22,547 Belize B (0.1) 102 Bermuda A+ (712.5) (802.0) (211.0) (51.5) (3.3) N/A Bolivia BB (19.1) (96.2) (66.7) ,337 Bosnia and Herzegovina B (2.3) (4.2) 382 Botswana A- (80.3) (81.3) (63.3) ,850 Brazil BB ,449 Bulgaria BB (16.7) (12.0) 2.8 (1.0) 8,881 Burkina Faso B Cameroon B ,551 Canada AAA (17.3) (0.2) ,827 Cape Verde B Chile AA (4.3) ,009 China AA- (95.5) (173.2) (125.7) (2.3) (1.3) 3,520,688 Colombia BBB (0.6) ,253 Congo B (25.4) (15.8) ,359 Congo, D.R. B ,471 Cook Islands B N/A Costa Rica BB (8.7) ,344 OCTOBER 12,

14 Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet (cont.) Croatia BB ,527 Curacao A- (24.8) (71.2) (71.2) (2.7) Cyprus BB (0.2) 916 Czech Republic AA (2.7) (0.1) 57,183 Denmark AAA (93.4) (7.5) 50.1 (3.8) ,093 Dominican Republic BB ,306 Ecuador B ,906 Egypt B ,499 El Salvador B ,680 Estonia AA (5.4) (0.3) 437 Ethiopia B ,012 Fiji B Finland AA ,122 France AA (2.2) ,053 Gabon B ,686 Georgia BB ,031 Germany AAA (122.4) (76.5) 66.8 (3.4) (1.1) 196,952 Ghana B ,645 Greece CCC ,240 Guatemala BB ,367 Guernsey AA+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Honduras B ,456 Hong Kong AAA (109.6) (85.8) (51.4) (1.2) (2.1) 152,224 Hungary BB ,464 Iceland BBB ,281 India BBB ,693 Indonesia BB ,445 Iraq B (5.6) (2.9) ,666 Ireland A (269.1) (5.3) 1,721 Israel A+ (61.8) (96.6) (25.1) ,319 Italy BBB ,342 Jamaica B ,310 Japan A+ (267.0) (197.0) 21.9 (18.3) (6.7) 1,228,259 Jersey AA+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jordan BB ,193 Kazakhstan BBB (84.2) (35.0) ,787 Kenya B ,955 Korea AA- (24.1) (48.4) (34.6) (1.1) (1.7) 463,042 Kuwait AA (741.0) (612.4) (546.9) (12.8) (11.8) 33,741 Latvia A ,038 Lebanon B (96.4) (70.9) ,341 OCTOBER 12,

15 Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet (cont.) Liechtenstein AAA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lithuania A ,900 Luxembourg AAA (4.9) (297.3) Macedonia BB ,098 Malaysia A- (13.7) (23.6) (0.4) 103,434 Malta BBB+ (16.8) (176.9) Mexico BBB ,552 Mongolia B ,530 Montenegro B (4.0) Montserrat BBB (198.2) (198.2) 4.3 (0.4) 7 Morocco BBB ,473 Mozambique B ,074 Netherlands AA+ (36.2) (1.6) ,921 New Zealand AA (2.3) 18,060 Nigeria B (10.0) (1.5) 26,723 Norway AAA (364.7) (345.1) (278.1) (0.4) ,435 Oman A- (92.0) (117.9) (80.0) 12.4 (0.1) 17,638 Pakistan B ,965 Panama BBB (2.2) ,129 Papua New Guinea B ,025 Paraguay BB (40.3) (18.5) 9.6 (0.6) 6,403 Peru BBB ,200 Philippines BBB (43.0) (25.9) (2.2) ,406 Poland A ,119 Portugal BB ,616 Qatar AA (254.2) (158.3) (136.4) ,398 Ras Al Khaimah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Romania BBB ,013 Russia BB+ (76.8) (87.1) (33.8) ,869 Rwanda B ,267 Saudi Arabia AA- (239.6) (266.0) (263.8) (4.7) (6.5) 12,515 Senegal B ,305 Serbia BB ,014 Sharjah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA (144.5) (151.5) (132.9) (0.2) ,834 Slovakia A ,807 Slovenia A South Africa BBB ,727 Spain BBB ,562 Sri Lanka B ,764 OCTOBER 12,

16 Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet (cont.) Suriname BB Sweden AAA (21.0) (6.6) ,271 Switzerland AAA (151.9) (168.9) 24.2 (1.4) (2.8) 553,845 Taiwan AA- (242.7) (204.4) (92.7) (4.1) (5.7) 451,011 Thailand BBB (37.4) (17.1) ,164 Trinidad and Tobago A (82.3) (163.5) (133.5) ,247 Turkey BB ,705 Turks and Caicos BBB+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Uganda B ,146 Ukraine SD ,384 United Kingdom AAA , ,960 United States AA (6.8) ,582 Uruguay BBB (99.7) (22.7) ,570 Venezuela CCC (181.7) (230.8) ,593 Vietnam BB (0.3) (0.3) ,254 Zambia B (158.9) ,491 LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. DC--Depository corporation. N/A--Not available. N.M.--Not meaningful. e--estimate. f--forecast. Glossary Of Terms Economic data Nominal GDP (bil. US$). Total U.S. dollar market value (converted at current exchange rates) of goods and services produced by resident factors of production. GDP per capita (US$). Total U.S. dollar market value (converted at current exchange rates) of goods and services produced by resident factors of production, divided by population. Savings/. Investment plus the current account surplus (deficit), as a percent of GDP. Investment/. Expenditure on capital goods including plant, equipment, and housing, plus the change in inventories, as a percent of GDP. Real GDP (% change). Percent change in constant-price GDP. Real investment (% change). Percent change in constant-price investment. Unemployment (% of workforce). Average percent of the labor force not employed and actively searching for work (definitions and coverage vary by country). Consumer Price Index (% change). Average percent change in index of prices of a representative set of consumer goods bought by a typical household on a regular basis. OCTOBER 12,

17 Depository corporation claims on resident nongovernment sectors (% change).claims by depository corporations, other than the central bank, on all residents except the general government. The data do not include claims on nonresidents. Depository corporations are usually financial institutions, other than the central bank, whose liabilities are included in the national definition of broad money. General government data General government. Aggregate of the national, regional, and local government sectors, including social security, and excluding intergovernmental transactions. Net debt/. Gross debt minus general government financial assets (cash, deposits, arms-length loans, and minority holdings of traded equities), as a percent of GDP. Gross debt/. Debt incurred by national, regional, and local governments, either for governmental purposes or for on-lending to a government-owned or private sector entity, as a percent of GDP. Internal holdings, including social security and pension fund investments in government debt, are netted out. Surplus (deficit)/. General government operating and capital revenue, excluding proceeds from privatization, minus operating and capital and extraordinary expenditures (though generally excluding aid to the financial sector), as a percent of GDP. Primary balance/. Surplus (deficit) plus interest payments on general government debt, as a percent of GDP. Revenue/. General government recurrent revenue, from sources such as taxes, fees and charges, interest, and dividends, plus capital revenue (largely grants), as a percent of GDP. Expenditure/. General government recurrent expenditure, for purposes such as salaries, goods for immediate consumption, interest, subsidies, and other transfers, plus capital spending that increases the value of general government physical assets, plus net lending (where a subsidy is involved), as a percent of GDP. Interest/revenues (%). Interest payments on general government debt, as a percent of general government revenues. Balance-of-payments data Current account receipts (CAR)/. CAR, which include proceeds from exports of goods and services, factor income (compensation of employees plus investment income) earned by residents from nonresidents, and official and private transfers to residents from nonresidents, as a percent of GDP. Real exports (% change). Percent change in the volume of exports of goods and services, as defined in the national income accounts. Current account balance/. Exports of goods and services minus imports of the same plus net factor income plus official and private net transfers, as a percent of GDP. Current account balance/car (%). Exports of goods and services minus imports of the same plus net factor income plus official and private net transfers, as a percent of current account receipts. Net external borrowing/car (%).The current account deficit (surplus) minus net inflows from foreign direct investment (both equity and loans) and portfolio equity investments, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external debt repayment. Usable reserves/current account payments (months).official foreign exchange reserves (including gold at market price) minus items not readily available for foreign exchange operations and repayment of external debt (such as: (1) reserves pledged as security; (2) mark-to market losses on reserves sold forward; (3) reserves deposited with offshore branches OCTOBER 12,

18 of domestic financial institutions; and (4) the monetary base for sovereigns with a currency board or longstanding fixed peg), divided by monthly imports of goods and services, plus factor income earned by nonresidents from residents, plus transfers to nonresidents. Gross external financing needs (% of CAR plus usable reserves).current account payments, plus scheduled principal repayments on external debt, plus the stock of short-term debt (original maturity of less than a year), as a percent of CAR plus usable foreign exchange reserves. Net foreign direct investment (FDI)/. Direct investment (both equity and loans) by nonresidents net of residents' direct investment (both equity and loans) abroad, as a percent of GDP. External balance sheet Net external liabilities/car (%). Total external debt plus the stock of direct investment (both equity and debt) and portfolio equity investment from abroad minus total external assets, which include official reserves, other public sector foreign assets, financial institutions' deposits with and lending to nonresidents, other private sector deposits with and lending to nonresidents, and the stock of direct and portfolio equity investment placed abroad, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates a net asset position. Gross external debt/car (%). Stock of borrowings in foreign or local currency from nonresidents (including nonresident deposits in resident banks) by the public and private sectors, as a percent of CAR. Excludes borrowings recorded under direct investment. Net external debt/car (%). Total external debt minus non-equity external assets, which include official foreign exchange reserves, other public sector foreign assets, financial institutions' deposits with and lending to nonresidents, and other private sector deposits with and lending to nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external lending. Excludes debt recorded under direct investment. Narrow net external debt/car (%).The stock of foreign and local currency public and private sector borrowings from nonresidents (including nonresident deposits in resident banks) minus liquid non-equity external assets, which include official foreign exchange reserves, other liquid public sector foreign assets, and financial institutions' deposits with and lending to nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external lending. Net investment payments/car (%). Factor income (largely dividends and interest, but also some employee compensation such as for embassy staffs) paid to nonresidents less factor income received from nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net investment receipts. Net interest payments/car (%). Interest paid to nonresidents less interest received from nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net interest receipts. We have determined, based solely on the developments described herein, that no rating actions are currently warranted. Only a rating committee may determine a rating action and, as these developments were not viewed as material to the ratings, neither they nor this report were reviewed by a rating committee. OCTOBER 12,

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