Macroprudential policy over the business cycle
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1 Macroprudential policy over the business cycle Pablo Federico (University of Maryland) Carlos Vegh (University of Maryland and NBER) Guillermo Vuletin (Colby College) Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP June 25, 2012 (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
2 Questions How many/which countries have used prudential tools for macroeconomic stabilization purposes? (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
3 Questions How many/which countries have used prudential tools for macroeconomic stabilization purposes? How is macroprudential policy conducted over the business cycle? (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
4 Questions How many/which countries have used prudential tools for macroeconomic stabilization purposes? How is macroprudential policy conducted over the business cycle? Is macroprudential policy a complement to/substitute for interest rate policy? (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
5 Questions How many/which countries have used prudential tools for macroeconomic stabilization purposes? How is macroprudential policy conducted over the business cycle? Is macroprudential policy a complement to/substitute for interest rate policy? How does macroprudential policy di er between industrial and developing countries? (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
6 Sources and database Database and analysis is part of a World Bank regional study (O ce of the Chief Economist for LAC) on macroprudential policy Empirical focus is on reserve requirements 52 countries (37 emerging, 15 industrial) Sample: 1970 to present Frequency: Quarterly Sources: Reserve requirements: Country desks, central banks, regulatory agencies, and IMF sta reports Interest rates and GDP: IFS, GFS, and national sources (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
7 Varieties of reserve requirements Single RR (19) Maturity RR (16) Currency RR (8) Maturity and currency (9) China Brazil Croatia Argentina Colombia Chile Guatemala Belarus Developing (37) Ecuador (after dollarization) Czech Rep. Honduras Costa Rica India El Salvador Lithuania Dominican Republic Jamaica Hungary Macedonia Ecuador (before dollarization) Malaysia Israel Nicaragua Poland Mexico Latvia Peru Romania Panama Venezuela Serbia Turkey Philippines Uruguay Singapore Thailand Trinidad and Tobago Australia Euro Canada France Denmark Germany Industrial (15) New Zealand Japan Norway Portugal Sweden Spain United Kingdom Switzerland United States (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
8 Average reserve requirements over time 0.25 Average reserve requirement Developing Industrial (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
9 Dispersion over time 0.1 Dispersion of reserve requirements Developing Industrial (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
10 Frequency of changes in reserve requirements Quarterly frequency of change of reserve requirement Australia Canada Denmark Domincan Rep. El Salvador Euro-17 Guatemala New Zealand Norway Switzerland United Kingdom Singapore Thailand Chile Mexico United States Panama Spain Czech Rep. France Macedonia Uruguay Germany Lithuania Portugal Israel Japan Philippines Ecuador (dollarization) Venezuela Hungary Sweden Brazil Poland Romania Turkey Peru Colombia Croatia Trinidad and Tobago Ecuador (pre-dollarization) Latvia Malaysia China Nicaragua Belarus Costa Rica Jamaica Argentina Serbia Honduras India (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
11 Cyclicality of reserve requirement policy Correlation (RGDP, reserve requirement) Jamaica Ecuador (pre-dollarization) Trinidad and Tobago Colombia Costa Rica Turkey Serbia Nicaragua India Argentina Philippines Belarus Av. developing = 0.15 Honduras Peru Venezuela China 100% of industrial countries excluded 49% of developing countries excluded Latvia Croatia Malaysia (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
12 Cyclicality of interest rate policy Correlation (RGDP, central bank interest rate) Uruguay Ecuador (pre-dollarization) Domincan Rep. Argentina India Mexico Chile Costa Rica Macedonia Romania Israel Venezuela Thailand Turkey Hungary Belarus Sweden Latvia Peru Croatia Brazil Jamaica Nicaragua Japan Norway Philippines Serbia Malaysia Portugal Denmark Panama Ecuador (dollarization) Colombia Trinidad and Tobago Lithuania New Zealand Czech Rep. United States United Kingdom Singapore Guatemala Poland China Australia Spain Canada El Salvador Germany Honduras France Switzerland Euro-17 Av. industrial = 0.43 Av. developing = 0.06 (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
13 Complementarity/substitutability with interest rate policy: Policy mix matrix Central bank interest rate policy Pro-cyclical A-cyclical Counter-cyclical Pro-cyclical Costa Rica, Ecuador (predollarization) Jamaica Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago Reserve requirement policy A-cyclical Chile, Domincan Rep., Mexico, Uruguay Brazil, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Macedonia, Romania, Sweden, Thailand Australia, Canada, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador (dollarization), El Salvador, Euro-17, France, Germany, Guatemala, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Counter-cyclical Argentina, India Belarus, Croatia, Latvia, Nicaragua, Philippines, Serbia, Turkey, Venezuela China, Honduras, Malaysia, Peru (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
14 Complementarity/substitutability with interest rate policy: Policy mix matrix Central bank interest rate policy Pro-cyclical A-cyclical Counter-cyclical Pro-cyclical Costa Rica, Ecuador (predollarization) Jamaica Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago Reserve requirement policy A-cyclical Chile, Domincan Rep., Mexico, Uruguay Brazil, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Macedonia, Romania, Sweden, Thailand Australia, Canada, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador (dollarization), El Salvador, Euro-17, France, Germany, Guatemala, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Counter-cyclical Argentina, India Belarus, Croatia, Latvia, Nicaragua, Philippines, Serbia, Turkey, Venezuela China, Honduras, Malaysia, Peru Substitutes Complements (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
15 Cyclicality of IRP and RRP before and after present present Corr(RGDP, reserve requirement) Corr(RGDP, i) (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
16 LAC: Policy mix matrix (before and after) Policy mix matrix ( ) Central bank interest rate policy Pro-cyclical A-cyclical Counter-cyclical Pro-cyclical Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Ecuador (pre-dollarization) Trinidad and Tobago Colombia, Jamaica Reserve requirement policy A-cyclical Chile, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Uruguay Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama Counter-cyclical Argentina, Peru, Venezuela Policy mix matrix ( ) Central bank interest rate policy Pro-cyclical A-cyclical Counter-cyclical Pro-cyclical Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Reserve requirement policy A-cyclical Brazil, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay Chile, El Salvador, Guatemala Counter-cyclical Costa Rica Argentina, Costa Rica, Nicaragua Colombia, Peru, Venezuela (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
17 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
18 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
19 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
20 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF Reserve requirements are lowered to stimulate economy (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
21 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF Reserve requirements are lowered to stimulate economy Fear of capital in ows (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
22 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF Reserve requirements are lowered to stimulate economy Fear of capital in ows Reluctance to raise interest rates in good times (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
23 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF Reserve requirements are lowered to stimulate economy Fear of capital in ows Reluctance to raise interest rates in good times Interest rate kept constant or lowered (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
24 Explaining substitutability: Fear of free falling/fear of capital in ows Fear of free falling Need to defend the currency in bad times Policy interest rate lost to FFF Reserve requirements are lowered to stimulate economy Fear of capital in ows Reluctance to raise interest rates in good times Interest rate kept constant or lowered Reserve requirements are raised to cool o economy (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
25 Conclusions RRP actively used in 51 percent of emerging markets (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
26 Conclusions RRP actively used in 51 percent of emerging markets 74 percent of emerging countries engage in countercyclical RRP (compared to 38 percent that engage in countercyclical interest rate policy) (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
27 Conclusions RRP actively used in 51 percent of emerging markets 74 percent of emerging countries engage in countercyclical RRP (compared to 38 percent that engage in countercyclical interest rate policy) All industrial countries engage in countercyclical monetary policy (and no industrial country uses RRP) (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
28 Conclusions RRP actively used in 51 percent of emerging markets 74 percent of emerging countries engage in countercyclical RRP (compared to 38 percent that engage in countercyclical interest rate policy) All industrial countries engage in countercyclical monetary policy (and no industrial country uses RRP) 72 percent of active emerging countries use RRP as a substitute for interest rate policy (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
29 Conclusions RRP actively used in 51 percent of emerging markets 74 percent of emerging countries engage in countercyclical RRP (compared to 38 percent that engage in countercyclical interest rate policy) All industrial countries engage in countercyclical monetary policy (and no industrial country uses RRP) 72 percent of active emerging countries use RRP as a substitute for interest rate policy Why? (Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors - BCRP) Macroprudential policy June 25, / 15
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