Brazil s Sovereign Ratings: Investment Grade Lisa M. Schineller Director, Sovereign Ratings Standard & Poor s
|
|
|
- Gregory Bryant
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Brazil s Sovereign Ratings: Investment Grade Lisa M. Schineller Director, Sovereign Ratings Standard & Poor s Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Brazil s Emerging Economic Power: Now Investment Grade and Why It Matters WILSON CENTER on the Hill Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Brazil Institute Washington, D.C. June 20,
3 Agenda What are sovereign credit ratings? Brazil s rise to investment grade Country risk versus sovereign risk Sovereign ratings methodology Brazil and its peers Global & Regional Economic Backdrop 3.
4 What are S&P sovereign credit ratings? S&P s sovereign ratings are Our assessment of the government s ability, willingness to service its debt on time, in full A globally comparable, forward-looking estimate of default probability We focus on medium-term fundamentals -- through growth, interestrate, commodity, political cycles S&P s sovereign ratings are not Country risk ratings or country investment rankings Not a recommendation to buy or sell a security, or a prediction of the volatility of a security 4.
5 Global Scale x National Scale Ratings Global Scale Investment grade AAA BBB- Speculative grade BB+ SD Local currency, foreign currency debt, +/- in each rating category, rating outlooks National Scale Brazil Mexico Russia br+rating mx+rating ru+rating Note: National Scales not comparable among themselves or to the Global Scale 5.
6 S&P Sovereign Credit Ratings 119 rated sovereigns worldwide 25 rated sovereigns in Latin America & the Caribbean Ratings are a measure of governments relative credit standing vs. each other & other issuers globally 6.
7 7. Number & Distribution of Ratings: Sovereigns March 0 SD CCC/CC/C B BB BBB A AA AAA
8 Sovereign Ratings: Latin America & Carribean (June 2008) Aruba A-/A- Chile A+/AA Bahamas A- Trinidad & Tobago A-/A+ Barbados BBB+/A- Mexico BBB+/A+ Montserrat BBB- Brazil BBB-/BBB+ Colombia BB+/BBB+ El Salvador BB+ Panama BB+ Peru BB+/BBB- Costa Rica BB/BB+ Guatemala BB/BB+ Venezuela BB- Uruguay B+ Argentina B+ Dominican Republic B+ Suriname B+/BB- Belize B Jamaica B Paraguay B Grenada B- Bolivia B- Ecuador B- Outlook: Stable, Positive, Negative Rating: Foreign Currency / Local currency 8.
9 Brazil s credit profile Eight consecutive positive rating actions beginnning May 2003 Pragmatic policy committment Decline in fiscal and external vulnerabilities Stronger outlook for economic growth Transformation underway in local capital markets 9.
10 Brazil s Sovereign Ratings History Local currency Foreign currency 30 April, 2008 BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB-/Stable/A-3 16 May, 2007 BBB/Positive/A-3 BB+/Positive/B 22 Nov., 2006 BB+/Positive/B BB/Positive/B 28 Feb., 2006 BB+/Stable/B BB/Stable/B 8 Nov., 2005 BB/Positive/B BB-/Positive/B 17 Sep., 2004 BB/Stable/B BB-/Stable/B 11 Dec., 2003 BB/Stable/B B+/Positive/B 29 April, 2003 BB/Stable/B B+/Stable/B 2 July, 2002 BB/Negative/B B+/Negative/B 9 Aug., 2001 BB+/Negative/B BB-/Negative/B 3 Jan., 2001 BB+/Stable/B BB-/Stable/B 10.
11 Most recent ratings actions May 16, 2007, Brazil s foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings upgraded: Foreign currency by one notch to BB+ from BB Local currency by two notches to BBB from BB+...and maintained the positive outlook on the long-term ratings Reaffirmed December 21, 2007 following the defeat of the CPMF April 30, 2008, Brazil s foreign currency rating upgraded to BBB- & local currency rating to BBB+ ; outlook revised to stable 11.
12 Prospects for Investment Grade Achieving, and maintaining, investment grade depends on the government s policy stance and commitment and upon the performance of various economic indicators Only 14 sovereigns (of 119 total) have moved from BB+ to BBB- Mexico Brazil Nine sovereigns were downgraded from investment grade to speculative grade Colombia Uruguay 12.
13 Prospects for Investment Grade Since 1975, on average one in five sovereigns in the BB category had its ratings raised to investment grade within a fiveyear period Mexico 7 years South Africa 6 years India 16 years Brazil 4 years 13.
14 Country Risk vs. Sovereign Risk Sovereign risk refers to the government s credit risk Country risk refers to the risks of doing business in a country, directly and indirectly related to government policies Some industries are more affected by country risk than others Banks, regulated utilities are good examples of ones most exposed; export-oriented companies least exposed There is no sovereign ceiling at S&P S&P rates companies higher than the sovereign based on their demonstration of fundamental credit characteristics, that are sheltered from country risk factors, and when they are likely to keep servicing debt if/when the government defaults 14.
15 Other Rating Actions April 30 Local Currency Foreign Currency Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras BBB-/CW Positive/-- BBB-/CW Positive/-- BNDES BBB+/Stable/-- BBB-/Stable/-- Banco do Nordeste do Brasil BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3 Eletrobras-Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A BBB+/Stable/-- BBB-/Stable/-- Banco do Brasil BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3 Banco Santander Banespa S.A. BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3 HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3 Unibanco SA BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3 Itaú BBB/stable/A-3 BBB/stable/A-3 Itaú BBA BBB/Stable/A-3 BBB/Stable/A-3 Bradesco BBB/stable/A-3 BBB/stable/A-3 15.
16 Ratings Above the Sovereign (June 2008) Corporates Local Currency Foreign Currency Ambev BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- Aracruz BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- Companhia Vale do Rio Doce BBB/CW Pos./-- BBB/CW Pos./-- Petrobras BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- VCP BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- Votorantim Participações S.A. BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Stable/-- Banks Itaú BBB/stable/A-3 BBB/stable/A-3 Itaú BBA BBB/Stable/A-3 BBB/Stable/A-3 Bradesco BBB/stable/A-3 BBB/stable/A-3 16.
17 How does Brazil compare with other Sovereigns? Brazil BBB-/BBB+ Russia BBB+/A- India BBB-/BBB- China A/A Mexico BBB+/A+ South Africa BBB+/A+ Peru BB+/BBB- Outlook: Stable, Positive, Negative 17.
18 Brazil: Sovereign credit ratings Supports A consistent macroeconomic framework and track record of policy continuity through political transitions; Net external debt less than 10% of current account receipts Profile of government debt becoming in line with investment grade credits. Constraints: Large net general government debt and interest burdens; Budgetary inflexibility amid high current spending; and Structural impediments that limit investment and growth compared with other emerging market economies. 18.
19 Sovereign Ratings Methodology Approach is quantitative and qualitative Political Risk Economic Structure & Growth Prospects Fiscal Policy/Stability Monetary Stability External Liquidity Public & Private Sector Debt Burdens 19.
20 Political Stability Do political institutions enhance ability and willingness to pay debt? Policy predictability and consensus through political transition? What are prospects for prudent policy to support investment, growth, trade, and fiscal improvement? In Brazil, politically difficult ideal policy reform agenda 20.
21 Growth Structure & Prospects Trend or medium-term growth prospects, versus one year of growth. Is the economy? Diversified, competitive, trade-oriented Strength of the private sector Depth of local capital markets Is the investment climate stable with supportive macroeconomic and microeconomic policies? 21.
22 Domestic Demand and Real GDP Growth (% change) 8.00 Real GDP Real Domestic Demand
23 Inequality in Brazil 23.
24 Higher Real Income Growth Among Poor 24.
25 Real GDP (% change) Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 25.
26 Real GDP per Capita (% change) Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 26.
27 Gross Domestic Investment / GDP, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 27.
28 Exports / GDP, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 28.
29 Challenges for higher medium-term growth Infrastructure and Energy Custo Brasil Labor markets Trade liberalization Lower cost and greater availability of capital Tax burden level and composition 29.
30 General Government Fiscal Balance / GDP, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 30.
31 General Government Primary Balance / GDP, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 31.
32 Net General Government Debt / GDP, % Net GG debt / GDP (%) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% e 2009f 32.
33 General Govt. Interest / General Govt. Revenues, % GG interest paid / GG revenues (%) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% e 2009f 33.
34 Net General Government Debt / GDP, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 34.
35 Interest / General Government Revenues, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f 35.
36 Fiscal Policy Challenges Further reduction in debt burden Continued commitment to primary surplus Less expansionary fiscal policy Fiscal Flexibility Composition and level of spending Earmarking of revenues Social security Less distortionary tax regime and eventually lower tax burden Extend maturity and duration of domestic debt 36.
37 External Performance Remarkable turnaround in Brazil s trade balance and current account position reflects structural and cyclical factors Return to a modest current account deficit is not necessarily problematic What type of financing -- FDI, debt, equity? 37.
38 Net External Debt / CAR*, % Dívida Externa Líquida / CAR* (%) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% e 2009f *CAR Current Account Receipts 38.
39 Net External Debt / CAR*, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f *CAR Current Account Receipts 39.
40 Gross External Financing Needs / CAR* + International Reserves Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f *CAR Current Account Receipts 40.
41 External Debt Service (exc. Short-term) / CAR*, % Brazil BBB Median Russia India China Mexico Peru South Africa ave. 2008f 2009f *CAR Current Account Receipts 41.
42 Brazil: Selected Economic Indicators 2008f Real GDP (% change) Real GDP per capita (% change General Govt. Fiscal Balance / GDP (%) General Govt. Primary Balance / GDP (%) Social Security Balance / GDP (%) Gross General Govt. Debt / GDP (%) Net General Govt. Debt /GDP (%) Interest Payments / General Govt. Revenue (%) Current Account Balance (US$ billion) Trade Balance (US$ billion) Gross External Fin. Needs/Reserves + CAR Net External Debt / CAR Net Public Sector External Debt /CAR Net Banking Sector External Debt/CAR Net Non-Bank External Debt/CAR f-forecast. CAR- current account receipts. 42.
43 Global & Regional Context 43.
44 Global Context United States Recession is S&P s base case, but now the low point in early 2009 Fairly shallow given fiscal stimulus package and interest rate cuts But, oil prices weigh on consumer May not have two consecutive negative quarters of growth Growth slows from 2.2% in 2007 to 1.3% 2008, and remains at 1.3% in 2009 Under a deep recession scenario, growth -0.3% in 2008 and -0.4% in
45 Global Context Europe Slowdown underway, but avoid recession Growth in Euro-zone from 2.7% in 2007 to 1.7% in 2008, and 1.8% in 2009 In the UK, real GDP growth from 3.1% in 2007 to 1.5% in 2008, and 1.9% in
46 Global Context U.S. accounts for 20% of world-gdp, but emerging markets led by China and India account for over 2/3 of the world s growth rate in recent years In China, real GDP growth slows from 11.4% in 2007, to around 10% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009 In India, real GDP growth of 9.4% in 2007 also slows toward 8.5% in 2008 and in 2009 Implication: support for soft and hard commodity prices 46.
47 Latin American Outlook Region is much better placed to withstand a U.S. recession and global slowdown Lower external and fiscal indebtedness Floating exchange rate regimes Increased reliance on local market for government (& corporate) funding But, government policy reaction remains a key factor Various risks to current and capital account balances Remittances FDI, portfolio flows 47.
48 Regional Indicators Selected Indicators e 2008-f 2009-f Current account balance Trade balance External debt / CAR, % Net external debt / CAR, % Public sector external debt / CAR, % Net public sector ext. debt / CAR, % General government balance / GDP, % General government primary balance / GDP, % General government debt / GDP, % Net general government debt / GDP, % e-estimate; f-forecast 48.
49 Latin American Outlook Real GDP growth 4.5% in 2008 and 4% in 2009 from 5.6% in 2007 Inflation pressures remain a policy challenge given global food and energy prices and Domestic demand, a main driver for growth in a number of countries Trade and current account balances worsen somewhat, but commodity prices provide an important support Some fiscal loosening, but debt levels contained 49.
50 Growth and Inflation Outlook percent change e 2008-f 2009-f Real GDP (weighted average) Domestic demand (weighted average) Consumer prices (annual average) e-estimate; f-forecast 50.
51 Analytic services and products provided by Standard & Poor s are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of each analytic process. Standard & Poor s has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during Permission each analytic to reprint process. or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. 51.
How does the increasing global uncertainty affect Latin American ratings?
How does the increasing global uncertainty affect Latin American ratings? Sebastián Briozzo Sovereign Ratings, Standard and Poor s Santiago de Chile, October 2011 Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor s,
Colombia s Sovereign Rating
Colombia s Sovereign Rating Sebastian Briozzo Analytical Manager Sovereign Ratings Group Standard & Poor s June 2015 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the
Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns
Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns October 11, 211 Agenda Latin America Sovereigns: Ratings Trajectory In A Weakening Global Environment
Sovereign Credit Outlook. Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 2018
Sovereign Credit Outlook Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 218 Agenda Global Perspective Regional Overview Sovereign Ratings and Recent Actions Colombia
Distribution effects of inflation through banking credit: the case of Argentina
Distribution effects of inflation through banking credit: the case of Argentina Chief Economists` workshop: distribution effects of Central Bank policies Bank of England May 19 th, 2017 Mauro Alessandro
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 2004 REPORT. Presentation by Mr. José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary of ECLAC
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 2004 REPORT Presentation by Mr. José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary of ECLAC Santiago, Chile, 15 March 2005 TOPICS COVERED IN THE 2004 REPORT 1.
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation
Taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean Situation and prospects
Taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean Situation and prospects Alberto Barreix Principal Technical Leader on Fiscal Economist, IDB Angel Melguizo, Head for Latin America, OECD Development Centre Taxation
Public Procurement networks in Latin America and the Caribbean
Session #7: Cross regional Learning: Cases in Caribbean and Latin American Countries Public Procurement networks in Latin America and the Caribbean Asia Pacific Public Electronic Procurement Network 2nd
Indian Perspective. J. B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Dr Milind Joshi Global Regulatory Management 28 June 07
President Dr Milind Joshi Global Regulatory Management 28 June 07 Drug Regulatory Process Indian Perspective Latin America www.jbcpl.com Copyright 2005 J. B. Chemicals Pvt. Ltd. Regulation Product regulation
The Great Deceleration
The Great Deceleration Low growth in LAC in 2014 is driven by few of the region s larger countries 8% LAC: Real GDP Growth Forecasts 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Venezuela Argentina Barbados Brazil St. Lucia Jamaica
Global Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after
Fiscal and Debt Coordination
Fiscal and Debt Coordination Eduardo Fernández-Arias Inter-American Development Bank Sovereign Debt Management Forum World Bank, Washington, 3 Dec 2014 Outline 1) The Macroeconomic Space Fiscal policy
Panamanian Banks. Macro Outlook and Regional Framework. Alejandro Garcia, CFA Managing Director, Latin America Financial Institutions
Panamanian Banks Macro Outlook and Regional Framework Alejandro Garcia, CFA Managing Director, Latin America Financial Institutions August 9, 217 Contents 1 Panama: Slower but Still Robust Growth 2 Panamanian
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
A. Setting the objective against which needs are to be measured
ANNEX II: INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS A. Setting the objective against which needs are to be measured A2.1 How much infrastructure investment is needed depends on the objective set, and the objective
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2016 30th ECLAC Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy Santiago, Chile 27 March, 2018 Revenue Statistics: a global project Revenue Statistics in Latin
LAC Treads a Narrow Path to Growth: The Slowdown and its Macroeconomic Challenges
LAC Treads a Narrow Path to Growth: The Slowdown and its Macroeconomic Challenges Washington, DC April 14, 2015 Chief Economist Office Latin America and the Caribbean Region I. What happened? The deceleration
Latin America Copes with Volatility, The Dark Side of Globalization
Latin America Copes with Volatility, The Dark Side of Globalization 2012 Spring Meetings IMF-World Bank Chief Economist Office Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Washington, DC 18 April 2012
Macroeconomic Outlook for Latin America
Macroeconomic Outlook for Latin America Adriana Arreaza Director of Macroeconomic Studies CAF Infrastructure Forum Melbourne May, 017 Latin America is coming out of a prolonged economic slowdown, supported
Recent developments. Note: This section was prepared by Dana Vorisek. Brent Harrison provided research assistance. 1
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected accelerate moderately, from 0.8 percent in 2017 to 1.7 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019, largely reflecting accelerating growth in commodity
Sustainable social and economic transition: Some evidence from Latin America
Sustainable social and economic transition: Some evidence from Latin America José-Eduardo Alatorre Economics of Climate Change Unit Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division Economic Commission
Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
SOVEREIGN ISSUES PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIA
SOVEREIGN ISSUES PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIA Presented by Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo Vice Minister of the Treasury and Public Credit Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Brussels, 4 April 2014 Bolivia
Inter-American Investment Corporation. Investor Presentation
Inter-American Investment Corporation Investor Presentation 3 4 $11.2 BILLION TOTAL ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 $2.7 BILLION EQUITY AVAILABLE FOR FINANCING OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS 26 IDB
Live Webcast And Q&A: Will Pressure Increase On Latin American Banks In 2016? December 9 th, 2015
Live Webcast And Q&A: Will Pressure Increase On Latin American Banks In 2016? December 9 th, 2015 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval
Tale of Two Adjustments. The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 14, 2017
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere April 17 Tale of Two Adjustments The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 1, 17 Outlook and Risks Tale of Two
Benchmarking LAC through the cycle, so far: downturn and recovery
The New Face of LAC: Financially Globalized and Resilient International Crisis Seminar: Macro Adjustment and Prospects for LAC Augusto de la Torre Chief Economist for Latin America The World Bank Santiago,
Latin America and the Caribbean. Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Highlights (2018) Better solutions. Fewer disasters. Safer world.
Better solutions. Fewer disasters. Safer world. Latin America and the Caribbean Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Highlights (2018) Introduction As part of PDC s annual Risk and Vulnerability Analysis update,
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition
Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;
St. Martin 2013 SERVICES AND RATES
SERVICES AND RATES FedEx International Solutions for your business Whether you are shipping documents to meet a deadline, saving money on a regular shipment or moving freight, FedEx offers a suite of transportation
Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima
Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Table of contents 1. The Changing Landscape Emerging USD Bonds have had a spectacular ride But where next? EMERGING USD BOND SPREADS SINCE
Microfinance in Latin America and the Caribbean Data Update- April 5, 2008
-2008 Data Update- April 5, 2008 This note summarizes the results of a recently completed IDB survey of microfinance in the region. The survey includes information on microfinance activities in 25 countries
MEXICO S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Information Analytics Expertise AUGUST 2014 MEXICO S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Rafael Amiel Director, Latin America -IHS Economics +1 215 789 7405 rafael.amiel@ihs.com Why has growth in emerging markets slowed?
Labor Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean & IDB Agenda
Labor Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean & IDB Agenda May 6 th, 2011 Laura Ripani Senior Economist Labor Markets and Social Security Unit Inter-American Development Bank Agenda Labor markets in
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS June Latin America and the Caribbean
Activity in the region has been weak reflecting stable or declining commodity prices, the drop in first quarter U.S. GDP growth and domestic challenges. Firming regional exports on the continued recovery
Global trends and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America
Global trends and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America Executive Secretary Santiago, 4 April 2017 Long-term megatrends Geopolitical changes and new global roles for China, Europe and the United States
Bond Basics July 2007
Bond Basics: Emerging Market (External and Local Markets) Developing economies around the world, known to investors as emerging markets (EM), are rapidly maturing into key players in the global economy
Trujillo, Verónica and Navajas, Sergio (2014). Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean: Data and Trends. MIF, IDB.
About the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) Founded in 1993 as a member of the Inter-American Development Group, the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) was established to develop effective solutions that
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2015 XXIX ECLAC Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy Santiago, Chile March 23, 2017 Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2015
World Economic Situation and Prospects asdf
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 asdf United Nations New York, 2019 Latin America and the Caribbean GDP Growth 2.0% 0.0 2.3 1.7 1.0-1.3 0.0-2.0% total per capita 1.0 0.0 projected -2.3 2016
Banco de Bogota S.A. y Subsidiarias 'BBB-/A-3' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Banco de Bogota S.A. y Subsidiarias 'BBB-/A-3' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Alfredo Calvo, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4436; alfredo.calvo@standardandpoors.com
Capital Flows to Latin America: Policy Challenges and Responses
Capital Flows to Latin America: Policy Challenges and Responses Javier Guzmán Calafell Director General Center for Latin American Monetary Studies INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS: OLD AND NEW DEBATES Cusco,
FedEx International Priority. FedEx International Economy 3
SERVICES AND RATES FedEx International Solutions for your business Whether you are shipping documents to meet a deadline, saving money on a regular shipment or moving freight, FedEx offers a suite of transportation
Americas Latinas: revisited
Americas Latinas: revisited Global Insight World Economic Outlook Conference Manuel Balmaseda Chief Economist Boston, October 2007 Boston October 2007 1 A New LatAm Sounder Economics Sounder Domestic Policy
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
3/7/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 01/2017 01/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 54,235,419 58,937,856 8.7 % 54,235,419 58,937,856 8.7 % NETHERLANDS 12,265,935 10,356,183
Challenges to monetary policy in the EMEs
Challenges to monetary policy in the EMEs A view into the Brazilian Case Governor of the Banco Central do Brasil Ilan Goldfajn November 18th, 2017 Outline Benign international conditions and Emerging Markets
Program Budget
Special Advisory Commission on Management Issues (SACMI) 2020-2021 Program Budget IICA/CCEAG/DT-02 (19) San Jose, Costa Rica 8 May 2019 Draft Program Budget 2020-2021 Inter-American Institute for Cooperation
An Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department
International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.
Enterprise Surveys e. Obtaining Finance in Latin America and the Caribbean 1
Enterprise Surveys e Obtaining Finance in Latin America and the Caribbean 1 WORLD BANK GROUP LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SERIES NOTE NO. 12/13 Basic Definitions Countries surveyed in and how they are
Economic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
Sovereign Risk Indicators
Primary Credit Analyst: Alexander Petrov, London (44) 20-7176-7115; alexander.petrov@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Santiago Cajal, Mexico City; santiago.cajal@standardandpoors.com Remy Carasse,
LATIN AMERICA: IS IT MOVING FORWARD? Ricardo Hausmann Kennedy School of Government Harvard University
LATIN AMERICA: IS IT MOVING FORWARD? Ricardo Hausmann Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Outline Structural reform and growth Demographic window of opportunity Financial Turmoil and contagion
Q & A CREA TU FUTURO PROGRAM ALONG WITH THE REGION S
CREA TU FUTURO PROGRAM Q & A 1. What is the Investment Operations Department (INO)?. What is this program about?. How long does the program last?. In which divisions can I work? 5. Which are the program
Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals
For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table
Charting Mexico s Economy
Charting Mexico s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
Impact of the Financial Crisis on Pension Systems in LAC
Impact of the Financial Crisis on Pension Systems in LAC Waldo Tapia Labor Market Unit Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) OECD/IOPS GLOBAL FORUM ON PRIVATE PENSIONS: PENSION REFORM AND DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS June 2013 LATIN. and the CARIBBEAN REGION
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS June 2013 Annex LATIN AMERICA and the CARIBBEAN REGION 149 Overview After a sharp recovery from the global economic crisis in 2010, when regional output expanded by 6 percent,
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
4/5/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 02/2017 02/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 53,961,589 55,268,981 2.4 % 108,197,008 114,206,836 5.6 % NETHERLANDS 12,804,152 11,235,029
Joint World Bank CEMLA Workshop Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool (DeMPA) Overview of Debt Management in LAC
27/2/211 Joint World Bank CEMLA Workshop Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool (DeMPA) Overview of Debt Management in LAC Mexico City, Mexico February 28th March 4th, 211 Jaime Coronado Coordinator
Developing Housing Finance Systems
Developing Housing Finance Systems Veronica Cacdac Warnock IIMB-IMF Conference on Housing Markets, Financial Stability and Growth December 11, 2014 Based on Warnock V and Warnock F (2012). Developing Housing
Capital Flows to Latin America: 2017 Year in Review
Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean 2017 Year in Review Washington, D.C., 10 December 2017 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of
Financing the LAC NDCs
Financing the LAC NDCs From actions to investments: financing needs and investment opportunities 6/28/16 Dr. Amal-Lee Amin Inter-American Development Bank Infrastructure and Environment Sector Climate
Summary of 2013/14 Doing Business Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean 2
Doing Business 2015 Fact Sheet: Latin America and the Caribbean Sixteen of 32 economies in Latin America and the Caribbean implemented at least one regulatory reform making it easier to do business in
Doing Business Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Augusto Lopez-Claros
Doing Business 2013 Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Augusto Lopez-Claros alopezclaros@ifc.org December 2012 1 Pace of reforms remains strong in 2011/12: share of economies with
How Nasty will the External Environment Get? Global Scenarios for LAC
How Nasty will the External Environment Get? Global Scenarios for LAC RTM Retreat Washington, DC 2 November 2011 Chief Economist Office Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank 1 Rising Global Uncertainty
Request for Information (RFI) for Life Insurance Benefits
Request for Information (RFI) for Life Insurance Benefits I. INTRODUCTION The General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (hereinafter referred to as the GS/OAS ) is requesting information
The regional process on access to information, public participation and justice in environmental matters (Principle 10) in Latin America and the
The regional process on access to information, public participation and justice in environmental matters (Principle 10) in Latin America and the Caribbean THIRTY-SIXTH SESION OF ECLAC MEXICO CITY, 23 27
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
Investment for development:
Investment for development: Towards a new generation of investment policies for inclusive growth and sustainable development Anabel González Minister of Foreign Trade, Costa Rica 59th Session Trade and
Sovereign Rating Methodology Overview November 2009
Sovereign Rating Methodology Overview November 2009 Maria Cannata Director General of Public Debt Management Treasury Department - Ministry of Economy and Finance Italy Republic of Italy Credit ratings
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
6/6/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 04/2017 04/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 60,968,190 71,994,646 18.1 % 231,460,145 253,500,213 9.5 % NETHERLANDS 13,307,731 10,001,693
Economic and Social Council
United Nations E/2018/19 Economic and Social Council Distr.: General 27 April 2018 Original: English 2018 session 27 July 2017 26 July 2018 Agenda item 15 Regional cooperation Economic situation and outlook
AfrICANDO th Annual. Making Technology Work for African MSMEs, Globally. U.S. Africa Trade & Investment Symposium. September 25 27, 2018
THE FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA 20th Annual AfrICANDO 2018 U.S. Africa Trade & Investment Symposium Making Technology Work for African MSMEs, Globally September 25 27, 2018 Miami Free Zone 2315
Low-carbon Development and Carbon Finance at the IDB Maria Netto Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Unit (ECC)
Low-carbon Development and Carbon Finance at the IDB Maria Netto Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Unit (ECC) 11th Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Oct 3 rd, 2011 Context for IDB
Think Global Invest Local
Think Global Invest Local Perspectives on Investment Opportunities in Latin America LABA Conference February 16 th, 2007 Guillermo Jasson Latin America Regional Head and Head of Investment Banking 1-212-761-7056
DOCUMENT 14 REPORT OF THE REGIONAL FEES WORKING GROUP TO THE INTERAMERICAN SCOUT COMMITTEE
DOCUMENT 14 REPORT OF THE REGIONAL FEES WORKING GROUP TO THE INTERAMERICAN SCOUT REPORT OF THE REGIONAL FEES WORKING GROUP TO THE INTERAMERICAN SCOUT. Table of Contents... 2 1. Introduction... 2 2. Working
Presentation to EPI - Washington
Presentation to EPI - Washington Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 19 May 1 The magnitude of the global crisis led to a contraction of GDP
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no
SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA
SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA Ignacio Hernando Meeting of International Relations Managers Banco de España, 9 July 215 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CONTENT 1. The Latin America economy at
ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG? Guillermo Perry and Luis Servén World Bank May 2003
ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG? Guillermo Perry and Luis Servén World Bank May 2003 Performance in the nineties: Better than most up to 1998, worse than most afterwards Real GDP Growth Rate (Percentages) 1981-90
Project implementation and Issues on Unemployment Protection and Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Latin America
Project implementation and Issues on Unemployment Protection and Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Latin America High-level Meeting on Implementing Reforms on Protection from Unemployment
Republic of Italy. Table Of Contents. Major Rating Factors Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research. September 19, 2011
September 19, 2011 Republic of Italy Sovereign Ratings Group: David T Beers, Managing Director, London (44) 20-7176-7101; david_beers@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Rationale
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
7/6/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 05/2017 05/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 71,166,360 74,896,922 5.2 % 302,626,505 328,397,135 8.5 % NETHERLANDS 12,039,171 13,341,929
China s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences
China s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences November 2017 Le Xia Asia Chief Economist, BBVA Research Index 01 Evolution of bilateral trade and investment 02 LatAm s export dependency on
PREVI NOVARTIS MONTHLY REPORT February 14, Macroeconomic Scenario
PREVI NOVARTIS MONTHLY REPORT February 14, 2014 1- Macroeconomic Scenario The outlook for global growth keeps improving. This scenario is benign, but not without risks to the emerging countries, including
Canada Jumps on the Bilateral Bandwagon
Canada Jumps on the Bilateral Bandwagon John W. Boscariol and Orlando E. Silva* Following in the footsteps of the United States and other major trading partners, the Canadian government has been actively
Session 4, Stream 6. Global regulation of lending. John Paul Zammit. 07 & 08 October 2015
Session 4, Stream 6 Global regulation of lending John Paul Zammit 07 & 08 October 2015 This document sets out a high level summary only of the information received from local counsel for the purposes of
Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments
U n i t e d N a t i o n s E c o n o m i c C o m m i s s i o n f o r L a t i n A m e r i c a a n d t h e C a r i b b e a n ECLAC WASHINGTON Office LC/WAS/L.122 Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean:
Belize FedEx International Priority. FedEx International Economy 3
SERVICES AND RATES FedEx International Solutions for your business Whether you are shipping documents to meet a deadline, saving money on a regular shipment or moving freight, FedEx offers a suite of transportation
Belize FedEx International Priority. FedEx International Economy 3
SERVICES AND RATES FedEx International Solutions for your business Whether you are shipping documents to meet a deadline, saving money on a regular shipment or moving freight, FedEx offers a suite of transportation
JPMorgan Funds statistics report: Emerging Markets Debt Fund
NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE JPMorgan Funds statistics report: Emerging Markets Debt Fund Data as of November 30, 2016 Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. jpmorganfunds.com
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
10/5/2017 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 08/2016 08/2017 % Change 2016 2017 % Change MEXICO 51,349,849 67,180,788 30.8 % 475,806,632 503,129,061 5.7 % NETHERLANDS 12,756,776 12,954,789
FOREIGN ACTIVITY REPORT
FOREIGN ACTIVITY REPORT SECOND QUARTER 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents... i All Securities Transactions... 2 Highlights... 2 U.S. Transactions in Foreign Securities... 2 Foreign Transactions in
Global Macro Outlook Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS
Global Macro Outlook 2014-15 Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS OCTOBER, 2014 Agenda 1. Economic Strength: o Global Growth Lower, But EMs Approaching
China s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences
China s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences Le Xia Asia Chief Economist, BBVA Research November 2017 Summary Evolution of bilateral trade and investment Inflation LatAm s export dependency
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
10/5/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 08/2017 08/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 67,180,788 71,483,563 6.4 % 503,129,061 544,043,847 8.1 % NETHERLANDS 12,954,789 12,582,508
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
1/5/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 11/2016 11/2017 % Change 2016 2017 % Change MEXICO 50,994,409 48,959,909 (4.0)% 631,442,105 657,851,150 4.2 % NETHERLANDS 9,378,351 11,903,919
Total Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
11/2/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 09/2017 09/2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change MEXICO 49,299,573 57,635,840 16.9 % 552,428,635 601,679,687 8.9 % NETHERLANDS 11,656,759 13,024,144