Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany

Transcription

1 Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany MIT Forums in Real Estate German REITs: A transatlantic Real Estate Investment Concept? 14th October 25, Munich Martin Becker ebs Department of Real Estate Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 1

2 Content 1 Performance of European REIT Markets 2 German Real Estate Investment Market 3 Outlook Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 2

3 Performance of European REIT Markets Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 3

4 International Overview Introduction of REITs and current market cap of REITs and listed property companies: Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 4

5 Netherlands RODAMCO EUROPE EUROCOMMERCIALPROP WERELDHAVE NV VASTNED OFFICES/IN VASTNED RETAIL CORIO NV NIEUWE STEEN INVS Jan. 9 Sep. 9 Mai. 91 Jan. 92 Sep. 92 Jun. 93 Feb. 94 Okt. 94 Jun. 95 Feb. 96 Nov. 96 Jul. 97 Mrz. 98 Nov. 98 Aug. 99 Apr. Dez. Aug. 1 Apr. 2 Jan. 3 Sep. 3 Mai. 4 Jan. 5 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 5

6 Netherlands 8 7 Aktien (MSCI) Immobilienaktien (EPRA) Renten (Datatream) Jan 9 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 6

7 Netherlands Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation p.a. Standard Deviation (SD) p.a. SD p.a. SD Property Stocks vs. Stocks Property Stocks vs. Bonds Jan Aug % 4.6 % 9.4 % 18.3 % 5.2 % 12. %.51.9 Jan Dec % 4.8 % 13.1 % 13.1 % -5.5 % 1.7 %.5.34 Jan Dec % 4.2 % 23.5 % 18.8 % 9.2 % 12.4 %.61.8 Jan.21 - Aug % 4.7 % % 23. % 17.1 % 12.7 % Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 7

8 Belgium 2,5 2 Marktkap. EPRA-Index (li. Skala) Anzahl Unternehmen (EPRA-Index, re. Skala) 5 4 Mrd. Euro 1, Anzahl,5 1 Jan 9 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 8

9 Belgium Aktien (MSCI) Immobilienaktien (EPRA ) Renten (Datastream) Jan 9 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 9

10 Belgium Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation p.a. SD p.a. SD p.a. SD Property Stocks vs. Stocks Property Stocks vs. Bonds Jan Aug % 4.7 % 8.6 % 17.2 % 3.6 % 13.9 % Jan Dec % 5.3 % 7.8 % 14.9 % -3.5 % 19.2 % Jan Dec % 4.2 % 16.7 % 17.2 % 6. % 9.4 % Jan.21 - Aug % 4.2 % -2. % 2.2 % 13.1 % 6.9 %.29.2 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 1

11 France Summe Marktkap. (Mrd. Euro, li. Achse) Anzahl Unternehmen (re. Achse) Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 11

12 France 6 Aktien (MSCI) Immobilienaktien (EPRA) 5 Renten (Datastream) SIIC-Index Euronext Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 91 Jul 91 Jan 92 Jul 92 Jan 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Jul 94 Jan 95 Jul 95 Jan 96 Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan Jul Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 2 Jul 2 Jan 3 Jul 3 Jan 4 Jul 4 Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 12

13 France Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation p.a. SD p.a. SD p.a. SD Property Stocks vs. Stocks Property Stocks vs. Bonds Jan Aug % 5.1 % 7.7 % 19.7 % 9.7 % 14.1 % Jan Dec % 5.9 % 4.1 % 17.7 %.5 % 16.2 % Jan Dec % 4.4 % 26. % 19.6 % 15.3 % 11.3 % Jan.21 - Aug % 4.4 % -1.2 % 21.5 % 17.8 % 13.7 % Source: ZEW/ebs (25) Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 13

14 International performance of REITs / property stocks Australia Japan Netherlands Belgium France Risk Risk Risk Risk Risk Jan Aug % 1.9 % -3.8 % 31.4 % 5.2 % 12. % 3.6 % 13.9 % 9.7 % 14.1 % Jan 21 - Aug % 8.5 % 5.1 % 28.3 % 17.1 % 12.7 % 13.1 % 6.9 % 17.8 % 13.7 % USA Canada REITs Composite Risk Risk Jan Aug % 12.8 % Jan Aug % 18.3 % Jan 21 - Aug % 14.1 % Jan Aug % 11.6 % Source: ZEW/ebs (25). Particularly in the last years REITs were successful As well the risk-return profile improved Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 14

15 German Real Estate Investment Markets Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 15

16 Overview: German real estate investment market Vehicle Measure Date Billion Closed-end funds Investment volume 31. Dec Open-ended mutual funds Fund volume 31. Dec Open-ended special funds Fund volume 31. Dec Listed property companies Market capitalization 31. Dec Opportunistic funds Transaction volume Year 24 app Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 16

17 Open-ended mutual funds Capital in- and outflows (EUR billion) Total fund volume and number of mutual funds Data cource: BVI. Fund volume (EUR million) Data source: Deutsche Bundesbank Fund volume mutual funds (left scale) Number of mutual funds (right scale) 3 15 Number of mutual funds Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 17

18 However: Low Real Estate Proportion within Asset Allocation... Asset Allocation of German Open-Ended Mutual Funds (24) Cash at bank 9% Other assets 5% Securities 12% Interest in property companies (partnerships) 2% Real Estate 67% Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, Calculations ZEW Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 18

19 Open-ended special funds Capital in- and outflows (EUR billion) Total fund volume and number of special funds ,5 2 1,5 1,5 Fund volume ( million) Number of special funds Fund volume special funds (left scale) Number of funds (right scale) Data source: BVI. Data source: Deutsche Bundesbank Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 19

20 Additionally: High Real Estate Proportion within Asset Allocation Asset Allocation of German Open-Ended Special Funds (24) Other assets 4% Cash at bank 7% Securities 15% Interest in property companies (partnerships) 2% Real Estate 83% Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, ZEW-Berechnungen Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 2

21 However: Only moderate appetite by foreign investors... Investor base of German Open-ended Special Funds Social insurance agencies 1% Foreign Investors Private 7% Organisations Financial 5% Institutions 2% Other Corporations 3% Pension funds 6% Data Source: Deutsche Bundesbank. Insurance Companies 74% Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 21

22 Closed-end real estate funds 18 Cumulated fund volume (EUR billion) 16 Eigenkapital Equity Fondsvolumen Fund e Data source: Deutsche Bundesbank Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 22

23 However: So far no established secondary market for closed-end funds... Fondsbörse Deutschland Only 13.2 million euros turnover in 1st half of 25 at Hamburg s Fondsbörse Deutschland Turnovers rarely above 5% of nominal value Fondsbörse Gefox At Düsseldorf s Fondsbörse Gefox since a couple of weeks only two closed-end funds are listed No turnovers so far Source: Börsenzeitung: Mühsamer Handel bei Closed Funds, Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 23

24 Underperformance of German property stocks Open-ended funds vs. property stocks vs. capital market (Dec 1993 =1) BVI Com posite DAX DIMAX REX Data Source: DID, Ellwanger und Geiger, EcoWin Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 24

25 Outlook Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 25

26 Which consequences result from a delayed/failed REIT introduction? Postponement: Right now, demand for REITs increases (current situation of open-ended funds) Bad signalling effects, if England is first Failure: Immanent, in case Germany will not adapt international industry standard Medium to long term debilitation of REIT segment Slow growth of REIT segment Suspension: Germany becomes even less competitive Other EU countries become more attractive for diversification of international investors German investors will look for alternative liquid property investments abroad Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 26

27 REITs können Anlagespektrum in in Deutschland bereichern INHALT/Seiten: Kurzfassung Kurzfassung I I --11X 11X A Grundlagen Grundlagen B Internationaler Internationaler Vergleich Vergleich C Der Der deutsche deutsche Immobilienanlagemarkt D Best Best Practice Practicefür für Deutschland Deutschland E Einschätzung Einschätzung des des Marktpotenzials Marktpotenzials F Verzeichnisse Verzeichnisse G Anhang Anhang Die Die Studie Studie kann kann für für 49,- 49,-Euro unter unter oder oder bestellt werden. werden Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 27