Questions - Fishpool seminar Bergen

Transcription

1 Questions - Fishpool seminar Bergen Paul Aandahl, Seafood Analyst, Norwegian Seafood Council

2 Global supply

3 Global Trade Estimates Atlantic Salmon Volume wfe Value jan-okt [CELLRANGE] jan-okt EUR 0 % [CELLRANGE] USD Average value* + 3,5 % Presentasjonstittel 3

4 Change in Global Trade Jan-Oct Estimate MT WFE Australia Canada Chile Faroese Isl. Great Brittain Norway Presentasjonstittel 4

5 Average weight Atlantic salmon Presentasjonstittel 5

6 Share of global production, 6+ Atlantic salmon Presentasjonstittel 6

7 Change in Global Trade estimate Jan Oct USA mt EU mt Russia mt China mt Most important changes: Strong growth from Chile to the USA, Russia and China Growth from Norway to EU, while export to Asia is reduced Presentasjonstittel 7

8 China market development Jan - Oct Canada mt Norway mt Faroese Islands mt Mt wfe /+12% / mt Great Britain mt Chile mt Vietnam mt HongKong mt Australia mt Presentasjonstittel 8

9 Norwegian Export

10 Volume, round weight Total Norwegian salmon export per month ,5% Norwegian export of salmon and trout 10

11 Volume in tonnes, Round weight Norwegian salmon 10 biggest export markets YTD October - change from [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] YTD 2018 October Norwegian export of salmon and trout 11

12 MT WFE Norwegian Export of Salmon to Poland Jan-Oct Share of Norw. Export Jan-Oct Oct % 14 % % 17 % jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt Presentasjonstittel 12

13 Is it possible to calculate the change in storage in Poland? - Trade - Domestic Consumption Import - Export = Consumption + Change in Storage Presentasjonstittel 13

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15 Exportdata Tradeflow analysis Media surveillance Seafood studies In dept insight in key markets Trade statistics from more than 50 countries Seafood consumer insight- data more than 25 countries Preferance, trends etc. Information from 1988 Best Seafood Database in the World Country reports Paneldata from 14 countries Consumer surveys Media analysis

16 «There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.» Mark Twain ( )

17 Poland Supply Several data sources How much is imported? Import statistics (Eurostat) - 3 monthly delay Wrong Country origin Export statistics Norway 1-3 days delay Other nations + 6 weeks Answer? Estimate? Presentasjonstittel 17

18 Poland - Export Export statistics Delay 3 months Alternative Import statistics from country of destination Germany, most important market (60% i 2016) Same delay as Poland Presentasjonstittel 18

19 Poland - Consumption Consumer panel data 6 weeks delay Lack out of home consumption Answer Calculation factors back to raw material weight Presentasjonstittel 19

20 Mt WFE Poland - status Supply jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des Import 2017 Import Presentasjonstittel 20

21 MT WFE Poland - Status Supply jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des Import 2017 Import 2018 Estimate Presentasjonstittel 21

22 Poland Status Export Trend +14% 0 jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des Eksport 2017 Eksport 2018 Estimat Presentasjonstittel 22

23 Import Export = Consumption + Change in Inventory jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt Presentasjonstittel 23

24 Percentage Distribution of Salmon Conumption in Poland* 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des *Based Upon Consumer panel data Presentasjonstittel 24

25 Estimated Consumption of Salmon in Poland jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des 2018_alt Presentasjonstittel 25

26 Estimated Change in Storage Change in Storage July October 2017: est: jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des est Presentasjonstittel 26

27 Can these results be trusted? Import - Too high because of reduced import from other countries Adjust Export - Can it be too low? What about the consumption? - Too high in october? Storage? Presentasjonstittel 27

28 What Effect will an increase of 5000 Mt WFE of Storage have? Demand has been artificially high Means reduced demand coming months Effect on price Premise: reduce storage back to same level as last year within 2 months (approx. 3% volume demanded volume) App. < 2 Nok/kg* *Model developed by Capia AS for the Norwegian seafood council Presentasjonstittel 28

29 Is there any change in the price elasticity in the short and long run, and can we see any specific changes from before and after 2013?

30 Production Volume 1000 MT Norw. Exp. Price Global Development Atlantic Salmon Axis Title Volume NOK/kg 30

31 Change in Global trade and Norwegian Export Price Price 50 % % 30 % % 10 % 0 % % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % -10 % -20 % -30 % -40 % Volume Presentasjonstittel 31

32 Short term vs long term elastisity (change in % volume /1 % change in price) Price Demand Short term elasticity will be lower than long term elasticit - shock in supply will have stronger price effect in the short term than in the long term Long term Short term Volume Presentasjonstittel 32

33 Price elasticity The EU market is more elastic than the Asian marke The Asian Market is becoming more elastic Presentasjonstittel 33

34 Demand Growth

35 Change in demand for atlantic salmon 30,00% Demand Shift* 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% *12 month average Source: Capia AS EU US Presentasjonstittel 35

36 Change in demand for atlantic salmon 30,00% Demand Shift* 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% ,00% EU US Presentasjonstittel 36

37 One example - Value added salmon product Presentasjonstittel 37

38 The Smoked Salmon Market in the EU 2018 vs 2017 Source: GFK, Europanel Presentasjonstittel 38

39 The consumer frequency for smoked salmon is going down in France May 2017 September 2018 August Presentasjonstittel 39

40 People are returning to the fresh natural salmon example France May 2017 September 2018 August Presentasjonstittel 40

41 Ending Increasing Share of Salmon for raw and out of home consumption in and I expect this trend to continue Presentasjonstittel 41

42 Other Questions?

43 VAP trend Fresh natural: France weak, Germany stable, UK increasing US (Strong increase from low level (100% growth YoY)) Prepared: France stable, Germany strong growth, UK reduction, US stable Presentasjonstittel 43